Wednesday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Can Musgrove Rebound From Nightmare Start?
It's a full day of baseball as we offer our top MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.
These are the best days for baseball fans, as we're treated to MLB action from the afternoon to late in the night - at least for those of us on the East Coast.
Wednesday's action began with the Tampa Bay Rays facing the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals taking on the Detroit Tigers in afternoon baseball starting at 1:10 p.m. ET.
It rolled on with the Kansas City Royals visiting the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, as we targeted a starter in that showdown with first pitch thrown at 3:07 p.m. ET.
We continued with another battle between AL East rivals and World Series odds favorites, as the Baltimore Orioles look for the three-game sweep over the visiting New York Yankees. First pitch was slated for 6:35 p.m. ET.
Finally, we go to the desert, and hopefully, there will be no bees on Wednesday. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks will square off, and first pitch is (perhaps tentatively) scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday’s MLB expert picks
- Joe Musgrove Under 6.5 strikeouts (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 strikeouts (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Joe Musgrove Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (-135) | Under 6.5 (-142) | Under 6.5 (-125) | Under 6.5 (-127) | Under 6.5 (-120) |
Game info: Reds vs. Padres | Moneyline: Padres (-135 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+100)/Under 8.5 (-120) via Betway | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET
San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove has been awful this season, and it doesn't appear he's been especially unlucky. Sure, he owns a .350 BABIP, but he's also walking 3.34 batters per nine innings to go with just 6.94 strikeouts per nine.
Fortunately for Musgrove, the Cincinnati Reds strike out at the fourth-highest rate in the league. However, we mentioned the right-hander's inflated walk rate, and the Reds also walk at the ninth-highest rate in the league. If Musgrove begins handing out free passes, he'll surely be punished by MLB's leading team in stolen bases.
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Musgrove is projected for just 5.29 strikeouts on Wednesday based on the average projection from three of our trusted models. Based on that projection, we're getting roughly 30% positive expected value on this bet.
As you can see, our other best sports betting sites are trading at prices closer to -130, with FanDuel already at -142. Be sure to act quickly and get these odds at bet365 before they disappear.
Best odds: -120 via bet365
Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 4.5 (-130) | Over 4.5 (-140) | Over 4.5 (-120) | Over 4.5 (-133) | Over 4.5 (-120) |
Game info: Royals vs. Blue Jays | Moneyline: Blue Jays (-130 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-105)/Under 8.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 3:07 p.m. ET
Toronto Blue Jays veteran Chris Bassitt has thus far been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride to start the season. He's mixed in three very strong starts with three absolute stinkers, striking out a total of 30 batters across 30 1/3 innings while recording a hideous 5.04 BB/9.
Bassitt will try to rebound from his latest clunker when he faces the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday, who don't own an especially prolific offense but also don't strike out very frequently, making this a bit of a tricky bet.
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However, Bassitt is projected for 5.43 strikeouts on Wednesday, as all three of our trusted models expect him to record around a strikeout per inning while pushing six frames for the third time this season. Based on that projection, we're getting roughly 15% +EV on this bet through the -120 odds found at either BetMGM or bet365.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is already trading at -159 to back this Over.
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM
Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 4.5 (-135) | Under 4.5 (-112) | Under 4.5 (-139) | Under 4.5 (-127) | Under 4.5 (-140) |
Game info: Braves vs. Mariners | Moneyline: Braves (-175 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (+105)/Under 7.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 3:40 p.m. ET
The Seattle Mariners feature three true MLB Cy Young odds contenders. Emerson Hancock is not one of them.
Hancock owns a 5.06 ERA this season, and he's managing just 6.41 K/9. His season-high strikeout total was six against the Milwaukee Brewers, and that's the only time he's cleared this total. Therefore, it seems pretty obvious why we're targeting his Under against one of baseball's best offenses.
The Atlanta Braves rank third by wRC+ and sixth by runs scored, and they're right around the middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate.
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Hancock is projected to record just 3.94 strikeouts on Wednesday, well below the five he'd need for us to lose this bet. Based on that projection, we're getting 21% +EV through FanDuel's -112 odds.
Pinnacle opened at an already-shorter -135 and has since moved its odds for the Under to -162. The rest of our best sports betting apps are quickly following suit, so make sure you get this price or at least Caesars' -127 odds before they all move to around -140 or shorter.
Best odds: -112 via FanDuel
MLB player props made Wednesday at 9 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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