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Guardians vs. Astros Player Prop Predictions, Odds: Expert Picks for Thursday

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: May 2, 2024 3:51 PM EDT • 3 min 8 sec read.

Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros celebrates hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays, and we offer our top Guardians vs. Astros player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros celebrates hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays. Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images via AFP.

After a quiet day, Thursday culminates with an exciting showdown in Houston, and we're offering our top Guardians vs. Astros player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.

While we're still in the early stages of the 2024 season, the Houston Astros haven't lived up to their lofty potential. Is it still too premature to start worrying about the 2022 champions?  

Houston commenced the season with a projected win total hovering near 93.5, and they have three major contenders by the MLB MVP odds in the American League. Disappointingly, they've started with a 10-20 record.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians - and most of the AL Central, really - are one of the biggest surprises. They're 20-10, good for first place in a division that features four teams with winning percentages above .560.

The Guardians will look to hand the World Series odds-contender Astros another defeat when first pitch is thrown at 8:10 p.m. ET on Thursday from Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas.

Will the Guardians continue to make our best sports betting sites look silly following a projected win total of only 79.5?

Here are our best Guardians vs. Astros player props and MLB picks (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Guardians vs. Astros player props

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Guardians vs. Astros expert picks

Logan Allen Over 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

This is a bit of a weird one, as Guardians starter Logan Allen isn't an especially prolific strikeout artist - sitting at just 7.47 punchouts per nine innings this season - and the Astros strike out at the lowest rate in the league.

However, one of the biggest things working in Allen's favor on Thursday is that he's left-handed. The Astros' Big 3 of Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Jose Altuve strike out more often against southpaws. Tucker owns a 19.2% K rate against lefties vs. 11.9% against righties, Alvarez is at 18.4% to 11.9%, and Altuve is at 19.4% to 11.9%, respectively.

Allen is projected to record 4.76 Ks on Thursday. Based on that average projection from two of our trusted models, we're getting roughly 14% positive expected value on this bet.

Our other best sports betting apps are hovering around -160 to back this Over.

Best odds: -150 via bet365

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Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐

Call it a hedge if you want, but we're combining Allen's strikeout Over with a pair of total bases Overs on Astros stars.

First, we'll look at Alvarez, who's off to a relatively slow start at the plate. He's slashing just .254/.323/.458, with a career-low 122 wRC+. However, Alvarez's batted-ball data is still among the most elite in the majors, as his Statcast page is gushing with red.

Thursday's projections also show us this is a good time to back Alvarez, and we're getting roughly 8% +EV on this bet based on them. Additionally, these +102 odds at BetRivers are very good, as our other best sportsbooks are hovering around -115 for Alvarez to go Over 1.5 total bases.

Best odds: +102 via BetRivers

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Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐

Unlike Alvarez, Altuve is off to a scorching-hot start at the dish this season. He ranks among the league leaders by fWAR thanks to a career-best 186 wRC+, and he's mashed seven homers to go along with four stolen bases. 

As was the case with our Alvarez Over, though, we're seeing serious value on this +114 price at BetRivers when we run today's projections against it.

We're getting roughly 8.5% +EV thanks to these very generous odds, as the rest of our best live betting sites are hovering around -105, with bet365 as short as -110.

The Astros' horrible start is due to no fault of Altuve, and we expect him to continue his impressive play on Thursday.

Best odds: +114 via BetRivers

Guardians vs. Astros game info & odds

  • When: Thursday, May 2
  • First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
  • How to watch: Space City Home Network, Bally Sports Great Lakes
  • Favorite: Astros (-125 via bet365)

Guardians vs. Astros player props made Thursday at 8 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He's been a Boston Red Sox fan for over 20 years and a Liverpool supporter for nearly a decade. He's probably watching, talking about, or thinking about sports while you read this.