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MIAMI GARDENS, FL - NOVEMBER 05: Trey Benson #3 of the Florida State Seminoles rushes for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Trey Benson of the Florida State Seminoles rushes for a touchdown against the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 5, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images via AFP.

The 64th installment of the Sunshine Showdown takes place Friday night as the Florida Gators travel to Tallahassee to square off against the Florida State Seminoles. Check out our Florida-Florida State college football picks.

After winning back-to-back games over SEC opponents, Florida (6-5 ATS, 6-5 O/U) suffered an embarrassing defeat to Vanderbilt last week. The Gators only won once on the road all season and haven’t been a betting underdog against FSU since 2018.

On the contrary, Florida State (8-3 ATS, 5-6 O/U) steamrolled each of its last four opponents coming into Friday’s rivalry matchup. After routing both Miami and Syracuse on the road, the Seminoles avoided a potential trap game scenario last week by jumping out to an early lead over Louisiana.

Here are our best college football Week 13 Florida vs. Florida State picks (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 13!

Florida vs. Florida State Game Info

  • Date: Friday, Nov. 25, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC
  • Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
  • Weather: 71 degrees, 50% chance of precipitation, 3-4 mph SW winds

Florida vs. Florida State Odds

Florida vs. Florida State Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers showed Florida State plenty of respect with an opening spread of nine points. Line movement has been sporadic with a handful of sportsbooks moving the number up half a point to FSU -9.5.

Meanwhile, the game total came down slightly after first opening at 59.5. At the time of writing, virtually all major sportsbooks listed the Over/Under at 58.

The most noteworthy development is the amount of support on underdog Florida. At DraftKings, the ATS ticket count is virtually even. However, more than 60% of the handle laid points with Florida State.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Florida vs. Florida State Picks

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Florida vs. Florida State ATS Pick

Florida State -9.5 (-110) ★★★

It’s tough to bet against Florida State, given the kind of run this team has been on. The Florida outfit coming to Tallahassee Friday is tougher than anything the Seminoles have faced. However, the bigger concern is how exactly the Gators will slow down Florida State’s offense.

The ground game is the Seminoles’ offensive bread and butter. Before running back Treshaun Ward became injured, FSU had a three-headed backfield monster. Ward returned to score two rushing touchdowns last week. In his absence, RBs Trey Benson and Lawrance Tiofili held down the fort.

Add in quarterback Jordan Travis' dual-threat capabilities and it's no shock Florida State ranks college football's 23rd  in rushing with 198.1 yards per game. Since Florida is 93rd in rushing yards allowed, it's a favorable matchup for the ‘Noles.

Early this season, Florida State had its own defensive struggles against the run. However, the Seminoles drastically improved in this area recently. With doubts as to how effective QB Anthony Richardson and Florida's passing attack are, FSU should commit extra defenders to slow down the Gators’ rushing offense.

Florida vs. Florida State O/U Pick

Over 57.5 (-105) ★★

As the game total steadily declined, there's now an even stronger argument in favor of buying back on the Over. Bettors want to target BetMGM’s line of 57.5, a half-point lower than almost all other major sportsbooks.

Many observers forgot about Florida State after three straight losses to top-tier ACC teams. The Seminoles’ offense is not one to be taken lightly, ranked seventh nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

FSU scored at least 28 points in each of its last five games. Given the defensive struggles Florida's had against the run, the Seminoles should thrive in this matchup. If Vandy rumbled for 175 rushing yards against the Gators, imagine what kind of output Florida State achieves Friday night.

The likelihood of rain during the game could be a concern for those betting the Over. However, neither of these teams is particularly reliant on the pass, something that should help minimize any negative weather effects.

Florida vs. Florida State Prop Pick

Benson rushing yards: Under 104.5 (-114) ★★★★

After giving props to Florida State's ground game, we look to play the Under on Benson’s rushing yardage prop of 104.5. It has little to do with confidence in Florida’s run D but concern about the distribution of carries.

As previously noted, the Seminoles have three quality RBs and haven’t been shy about using them. With Ward missing time due to injury, Benson saw an uptick in usage. After seeing no more than 10 carries in each of the first seven games, Benson garnered 15+ rushing attempts in each of the last four weeks. 

With Ward returning from injury and Toafili still in the mix, there’s a very high likelihood Benson’s workload will be cut back this week. Even if he still reaches the 15-carry mark, surpassing this rushing yardage prop is hardly a sure thing. 

To put things in perspective, last week Benson averaged 5.0 yards on 16 carries. Despite the solid YPC output, it only equaled 80 total yards.

Where to Bet on Florida vs. Florida State Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Florida vs. Florida State picks made 11/23/2022 at 4:24 p.m. ET.