Michigan vs. Ohio State Picks, Predictions College Football Week 13: Lots on the Line in The Game

Henry John

Last Updated: November 26, 2022 3:22 AM EST • 3 min 54 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Jaxon Smith-Njigba #11 of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Rod Moore #19 of the Michigan Wolverines talk during the first quarter at Michigan Stadium on Nov. 27, 2021. Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images via AFP.

A spot in the Big Ten Championship game and the College Football Playoff is on the line when blood rivals Michigan and Ohio State meet up Saturday. Check out our top Michigan-Ohio State college football picks.

Michigan (6-4-1 against the spread, 2-8-1 Over/Under) overcame numerous injuries last week to escape with a two-point home win over Illinois. The result kept the Wolverines’ unbeaten record intact. Michigan will seek to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game for the second year in a row with a win on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Ohio State (5-5-1 ATS, 8-3 O/U) had to overcome a scare of its own to escape with a road win over Maryland last week. The 13-point margin of victory was hardly indicative of how close the game was throughout. Nonetheless, the Buckeyes remained unbeaten and have won all of their games to date by double-digits.

Ohio State is out to avenge its shocking 42-27 loss to Michigan last November, but the game was at "The Big House."

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 13 matchup between Michigan and Ohio State (odds via SuperBook, FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out all of our college football best bets and all of our top picks for Week 13!

Michigan vs. Ohio State Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 26, noon ET
TV: FOX
Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Weather: 48 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-7-mph winds SW

Michigan vs. Ohio State Odds

Michigan vs. Ohio State Odds Analysis

The favored Buckeyes opened as eight-point favorites, and though the line temporarily dropped to 7.5, it currently sits at nine points ahead of kickoff.

Variations for the total remain available, but after opening at 58 points, the Over/Under is set at 56. The Under has drawn 60% of the cash and 63% of the tickets.

Michigan vs. Ohio State Picks

Michigan vs. Ohio State ATS Pick

Ohio State -7.5 (-110) ★★★

Clearly, both Michigan and Ohio State were looking past their respective opponents last week.

The Wolverines were particularly fortunate. If not for several blatant officiating errors, Michigan would have lost last week’s game outright. That said, quarterback J.J. McCarthy deserves credit for leading back-to-back scoring drives in the waning minutes against a stout Illinois defense.

Whether or not McCarthy can come through in a hostile environment against a far more athletic Ohio State defense is another story. The Buckeyes have allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards per game to opponents. As such, Michigan’s hopes of springing the upset on the road will depend heavily on the availability of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.

If the Wolverines can’t run the ball successfully and control the time of possession, Ohio State will not only have a great chance to win but to do so in a convincing fashion. Like Michigan, the Buckeyes’ backfield is dealing with several injuries. That said, OSU has far more quality depth at the position.

Of course, Ohio State also has a far more potent passing attack. Despite star wideout Jaxson Smith-Njigba only playing in three games due to a hamstring injury, the Buckeyes still rank second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.

For as solid as Michigan’s defense has been all season, it has yet to face an aerial attack that comes close to matching what C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes are capable of. The fact that the betting public is so eager to back the underdog simply reinforces the decision to lay the points.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Michigan vs. Ohio State O/U Pick

Under 56.5 (-110) ★★

Each of the last three installments of “The Game” has turned into an offensive shootout. However, it’s tough to bank on Saturday’s encounter playing out the same way given that both sides boast top-10 rankings in adjusted defensive efficiency.

For Michigan, a defensive-minded affair is perhaps the only path to an upset victory. Winning in the trenches on both sides of the ball will be critical for the Wolverines. With the interior of Ohio State’s offensive line not being up to par with those of recent years, Michigan has a fair chance at stopping the run effectively.

On the other side of the ball, Ohio State’s decision to hire Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator has paid major dividends. Michigan will be hard-pressed to overpower the Buckeyes on the ground. That sentiment only rings more true if Corum is not fully healthy.

Given how unimpressive Michigan’s offense was in two previous matchups against elite defensive teams (Iowa and Illinois), it’s tough to envision a significant uptick in scoring against Ohio State. Much like the ATS outcome, whether or not the total goes Over or Under could depend on how well the Wolverines’ secondary holds up in coverage.

Michigan vs. Ohio State Prop Pick

Emeka Egbuka receiving yards: 70+ (-106) ★★★

Last week, the Maryland defense did a great job of clamping down on leading Ohio State wideout, Marvin Harrison Jr. Assuming that Michigan will attempt to do the same, the door swings wide open for slot receiver Emeka Egbuka to become Stroud’s preferred target.

With a team-leading 82 receiving yards last week, Egbuka has now reached the 70-yard threshold in eight of 11 games on the year. Due to Smith-Njigba’s injury, the sophomore has seen his role expand greatly. Egbuka has hauled in at least four receptions in all but two games this season. He figures to be a key cog in Ohio State’s passing attack once again on Saturday.

As for the prop itself, we are actually looking to play the alternate yardage total at FanDuel due to the price discrepancy. There’s no reason to bet the Over on 69.5 receiving yards for Egbuka at -114 odds given that the only way that prop cashes is if he finishes with 70+ yards. The difference may only be eight cents, but savvy odds shopping can certainly add up over time.

Where to bet on Michigan vs. Ohio State Picks

Check out our best sportsbooks:

Michigan-Ohio State picks made 11/23/2022 at 6:15 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.