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Quarterback Michael Pratt of the Tulane Green Wave throws a pass against pressure from guard Robert Hentz II of the Kansas State Wildcats.
Quarterback Michael Pratt of the Tulane Green Wave throws a pass against pressure from guard Robert Hentz II of the Kansas State Wildcats. Peter Aiken/Getty Images/AFP.

The Cincinnati Bearcats have won four straight against the Tulane Green Wave, but they failed to cover as 27-point favorites during the 2021 matchup. Read on for our top Tulane-Cincinnati college football picks.

After suffering its first conference loss of the season two weeks ago, Tulane (9-2 ATS, 5-6 O/U) got back on track in resounding fashion in Week 12. The Green Wave jumped out to a 21-0 lead after the first quarter before completing a 35-point rout of SMU.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati (3-7-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U) comes into Friday’s regular-season finale riding a three-game winning streak. The Bearcats have been involved in numerous close games in 2022, but they've managed to come out on top in all but one AAC matchup.

Here are our college football picks for the Week 13 matchup between Tulane and Cincinnati (Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 13!

Tulane vs. Cincinnati Game Info

Date: Friday, Nov. 25, noon ET
TV: ABC
Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Weather: 49 degrees, 90.5% chance of precipitation, 2-mph southerly winds

Tulane vs. Cincinnati Odds

Tulane vs. Cincinnati Odds Analysis

The consensus opening spread of Cincinnati -3 is down to -1 as of Friday morning. That move comes with 67% of the tickets accounting for 62% of the handle backing Tulane.

The Over/Under has dipped from the opening line of 47.5 to 44 on the morning of gameday despite the lion's share of the tickets and cash backing the Over.

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Tulane vs. Cincinnati Picks

Sbr Betting TicketThree Picks

Tulane vs. Cincinnati ATS Pick

Tulane +2.5 (-112) ★★

Many of Tulane's starters returned for 2022, so plenty of college football betting analysts felt the team was primed for improvement. But few could’ve foreseen the Green Wave vaulting from a two-win team in 2021 to the brink of the American Athletic Conference title game. 

Much like the recent Cincinnati teams that rose to national prominence, Tulane’s greatest asset is its defense. The Green Wave enter Friday’s contest ranked 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. That puts Tulane behind only Marshall in defensive efficiency among Group of 5 schools.

Out of 131 FBS teams, Cincinnati only ranks 79th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bearcats’ inability to consistently put together scoring drives has been showing up on countless occasions. The unit’s outlook is even cloudier for Friday’s matchup after starting quarterback Ben Bryant was knocked out of the team's Week 12 win over Temple with a foot injury. 

Cincy's offense is also very different stylistically than the UCF outfit that beat Tulane two weeks ago. While the Knights boast a potent rushing attack, the Bearcats only rank 100th nationally with 117.5 rushing yards per game. The Green Wave figure to match up much better with a more pass-reliant offense.

Although Cincinnati has only logged one conference loss, it could easily have dropped more. Despite regularly being a double-digit favorite, Cincinnati has recorded just one 10-plus-point win in the AAC out of its six conference victories. Clearly, the betting market is still overvaluing the Bearcats against conference opponents.

Tulane vs. Cincinnati O/U Pick

Under 47 (-105) ★★

Although the line has already moved upward of 4 points to the Under, bettors should expect the defenses to dictate the terms in this matchup. DraftKings is the outlet to use when betting the Under, as it's listing the total a half-point higher than all other major sportsbooks.

Tulane’s defense more than held its own against a much more prolific Cincinnati offense in 2021. The Bearcats only led 14-12 at the half before pulling away for a 19-point win. Even so, the game still only featured 43 points.

Fast-forward to Friday’s rematch, and not only is Tulane's defense stronger, but Cincy’s offense lacks the same capabilities in both phases of the game. Bryant may not be able to get many practice reps in this week due to his injury, head coach Luke Fickell said on Monday. 

Even if Bryant is able to start on Friday, he may not be effective. Sophomore Evan Prater will get the nod if Bryant is ruled out. Going up against the stingy Tulane defense with a conference championship game berth on the line isn’t exactly the ideal first-start scenario.

Additionally, there's a 90% chance of rain during the game. Sloppy conditions figure to hinder both offenses that much more.

Tulane vs. Cincinnati Prop Pick

Cincinnati team total Under 23.5 (+100) ★★★

Based solely on scoring output, Cincinnati’s offense has been regressing throughout the season. After scoring 28-plus points in each of their first seven games, the Bearcats have been held to 23 or fewer in three of their last four. 

What’s more, none of Cincy’s recent opponents rank nearly as high statistically on defense as Tulane. Throw in the rainy weather forecast and Bryant's uncertain health, and Cincinnati could struggle offensively on Friday. 

FanDuel is posting the Under on 23.5 points at even-money odds, which only adds to the value of this prop bet.

Where to Bet on Tulane vs. Cincinnati Picks 

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Tulane-Cincinnati picks made 11/22/2022 at 3:21 p.m. ET