Kentucky vs. Gonzaga College Basketball Picks, Predictions: Can Wildcats Pull Off Upset?

Philip Wood

Last Updated: November 20, 2022 9:02 AM EST • 2 min 31 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Adou Thiero of the Kentucky Wildcats celebrates during the game against the South Carolina State Bulldogs. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

The Kentucky Wildcats travel to Spokane to take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who are fresh off a 19-point loss at Texas. Can the Wildcats spring the road upset? Read on for our top Kentucky-Gonzaga picks.

Though Sunday’s matchup is listed as a top-five showdown, it’s unlikely either team will be ranked where they are when the next AP Poll comes out.

Earlier this week, Kentucky lost a double overtime thriller to Michigan State at the State Farm Champions Classic in Indianapolis. At the same event, Gonzaga beat the Spartans by one, but it followed that game up with a blowout loss at Texas.

Here are our top picks for the college basketball matchup between Kentucky and Gonzaga (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga Game Info

Date: Sunday, Nov. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Spokane Arena, Spokane, WA

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga Odds

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga Odds Analysis

Gonzaga opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and the line has moved in the Bulldogs' favor since then. They are now favored by three on DraftKings and PointsBet. At FanDuel Sportsbook, they are now favored by 3.5, but Kentucky is -118 at +3.5, which signals this line should move in the Wildcats’ favor.

As for the total, the line opened at 154, and it has gone as high as 156 before settling at 155.5.

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga Picks

Spread: Kentucky +3 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★
Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★
Prop bet: Kentucky first half Over 36.5 (-105 via PointsBet) ★★★

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga ATS Pick

Kentucky +3 (-110) ★★

The Bulldogs have been far from impressive to start this season, and they are very lucky that they are not 1-2 heading into Sunday’s matchup. In their 93-74 loss to Texas, they led very briefly in the first half, but once the Longhorns took the lead with 10:51 remaining, they never relinquished it.

Against Texas, the Bulldogs actually shot fairly well, knocking down 49% of their field goals and 47.4% of their 3-pointers. However, they committed 20 turnovers just a few nights after committing 18 against Michigan State.

The Wildcats have caused 57 turnovers in their first four games, including 18 against Michigan State. Forward Oscar Tshiebwe fouled out in the Wildcats’ loss, which proved to be the difference come overtime.

Tshiebwe could run into foul trouble against the front line of Gonzaga led by Drew Timme. However, even if he does, Kentucky gave a game away last week, while the Bulldogs looked far inferior in their single road test.

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga O/U Pick

Over 155.5 (-110) ★★★

Both of these teams struggled to score against Michigan State, but it seems as though tough defense is going to be the norm for the Spartans this season. Though the Wildcats have yet to face anyone else of the caliber of the Spartans, they are averaging 88.8 points per game. The Bulldogs are averaging 80.7.

Both Gonzaga and Kentucky shot less than 30% from 3-point range against Michigan State, but they have each shot at least 38.5% in all of their other games this season.

With both teams turning the ball over at a fairly high rate, there should be plenty of opportunities for fast-break points. When the teams aren’t turning the ball over, they are each shooting about 50% from the field, which also bodes well for this one going Over.

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga Prop Pick

Kentucky first half Over 36.5 (-105) ★★★

It is still early in the season, but the Bulldogs’ defense has not been very good in first halves this season. They allowed Michigan State to score 38 in the first 20 minutes, then allowed Texas to score 47.

Neither of those games was at home, so perhaps they will have some advantage because they are playing in Spokane. However, six different Wildcats players are scoring over 10 points per game. It is going to be hard for Gonzaga to stop all of them.

With how the Wildcats have been shooting the ball, they should be able to score at will in the first half before Gonzaga makes adjustments.

Where to Bet on Kentucky-Gonzaga Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Kentucky-Gonzaga picks made 11/20/2022 at 9:21 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Philip Wood

Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.