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Creighton vs. San Diego State Predictions, Odds & Picks: Bluejays and Aztecs Clash in March Madness Game

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 26, 2023 8:17 AM EDT • 2 min 40 sec read.

Keshad Johnson of the San Diego State Aztecs shoots against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at KFC YUM! Center on Mar. 24, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky.
Keshad Johnson of the San Diego State Aztecs shoots against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at KFC YUM! Center on Mar. 24, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

The San Diego State Aztecs took down the Alabama Crimson Tide to earn their Elite Eight berth, and they'll meet the Creighton Bluejays. Here is our best Creighton vs. San Diego State prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

Who had this matchup as the South Region final in their bracket? Yet, here we are, with the fifth-seeded Aztecs taking on the sixth-seeded Bluejays with a trip to the Final Four on the line. 

To get here the Aztecs defeated two double-digit seeds and then put together a phenomenal team effort against the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed. The Bluejays' path to the Elite Eight featured wins over the 11th and 15th-seeded teams in the region, with an 85-76 victory against the Baylor Bears sandwiched in between.

Here is our best Creighton vs. San Diego State prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Creighton vs. San Diego State odds

Creighton vs. San Diego State Prediction

Over 133.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Despite the Aztecs taking down the tournament’s No. 1 seed, the Bluejays are actually favored in this game. Maybe bettors expect a letdown performance from the Aztecs, or they just think the Bluejays’ offense is too much for San Diego State to handle. Either way, stay away from the spread in what feels like a toss-up.

Instead, play the Over. We've been all over the Aztecs’ Unders in this tournament because their superb defense was very undervalued. But now, oddsmakers caught up to the reality of the situation, and finally posted a number too low to take the Under.

The Bluejays scored 85 or more points in their last two contests. Against the Princeton Tigers, they shot 58.2% from the floor, while versus the Bears, they shot 45.8% from 3-point range. They can score from beyond the arc or inside, and while the Aztecs’ D is among college basketball's best, it's a very hard offense to prepare for in 48 hours.

Yet, it won’t just be the Bluejays scoring. The Aztecs gained over 70 points in their last two matchups as well. They should have similar success against a Bluejays team that allowed 71.3 points per game in their previous three. This won’t be a shootout by any means, but expect both opponents to get near 70 points, enough to push this Over.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Creighton vs. San Diego State best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Over 133.5Over 133.5Over 133.5Over 133.5Over 133.5
-110-110-110-110-110

Every major sportsbook offers the exact same line for the exact same price. So, there's really no reason to pick one over the other. Go with DraftKings who currently have the most parlay opportunities for both player and game props.

Additionally, if this number does go up, don't take it higher than 135, even if the price is favorable. This is a good line from oddsmakers, and those one or two points could make all the difference.

Creighton vs. San Diego State odds analysis

The Bluejays opened as 2-point favorites, and the line quickly dropped to 1.5. 61% of bets back the Aztecs, so expect this one to continue to drop in their favor. These two teams are very evenly matched, and it wouldn't be surprising to see this go off as a pick ‘em.

The total opened at 133.5, and that's where it stayed. 55% of bettors back the Over at the moment. If that percentage increases, this number could also go up. Be careful taking this number too high, as San Diego State could absolutely frustrate the Bluejays.

Creighton vs. San Diego State game info

  • Date: Sunday, March 26, 2:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY

Creighton vs. San Diego State pick made 3/25/2023 at 10:41 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.