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Creighton vs. San Diego State Prop Picks: Can Aztecs Pull Off Another March Madness Upset?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 26, 2023 8:16 AM EDT • 3 min 7 sec read.

Matt Bradley of the San Diego State Aztecs drives against Brandon Miller of the Alabama Crimson Tide during the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at KFC YUM! Center on Mar. 24, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky.
Matt Bradley of the San Diego State Aztecs drives against Brandon Miller of the Alabama Crimson Tide during the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at KFC YUM! Center on Mar. 24, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images via AFP.

The San Diego State Aztecs and Creighton Bluejays each make their first Elite Eight appearances, and the game should be emotionally charged. Here are our best Creighton vs. San Diego State prop picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

This matchup between the No. 5 seed Aztecs and No. 6 seed Bluejays is the first 5-6 contest in the NCAA Tournament in 13 years. San Diego State comes off an impressive win over No. 1 overall seed Alabama Crimson Tide and helped ensure there are no No. 1 seeds in the Elite Eight for the first time in tournament history. Meanwhile, Creighton rolled to three consecutive victories by 9+ points and is one of two remaining teams that won each of its three tournament games by that margin.  

When making your Creighton vs. San Diego State prediction, consider our best Creighton vs. San Diego State prop picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Creighton vs. San Diego State odds

Creighton vs. San Diego State prop picks

  • Matt Bradley Over 12.5 points (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 
  • Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 5.5 rebounds (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 
  • San Diego State to win by 1-5 points (+470 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Creighton vs. San Diego State prop predictions

Matt Bradley Over 12.5 points (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This projected total is right around Bradley’s season-scoring average (12.8 points per game). Bradley led the team in scoring the last two seasons and is the only Aztec player this year averaging double figures.

The First Team All-Mountain West guard entered Friday’s matchup against Alabama 11th in scoring among all active players. He scored 6 points against the Crimson Tide after being limited to just 19 minutes because of early foul trouble. Expect him to be more disciplined on the defensive end this game and play closer to his 26.4 minutes per game average.

Creighton’s defensive philosophy plays right into what San Diego State is comfortable with offensively. The Bluejays allow the 12th-highest rate of mid-range jump shots (per ShotQuality), while the Aztecs shoot mid-range jumpers at D-I’s 12th-highest rate. Bradley scored 13+ points in three of his last six contests, but in the biggest game in school history, the team’s leading scorer should perform his best.

DraftKings offers the most affordable juice for this number, as FanDuel (-111) and Caesars (-113) are slightly more expensive.

Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 5.5 rebounds (+115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bluejays center Ryan Kalkbrenner was named Big East Defensive Player of the Year for the second consecutive season as a result of his 2.1 blocks and 6.1 rebounds per game. We're getting plus-money odds on this total, as Kalkbrenner secured six or more rebounds just twice in the previous nine contests.

However, San Diego State doesn't have the floor-stretching forward or center Kalkbrenner deals with, so he'll mostly play below the basket where he's most comfortable, and where he can secure many rebounds. 

This is a four-star play as Kalkbrenner went above this projected total in seven of 11 games against NCAA Tournament competition leading up to March Madness (and in two of three tournament matchups), so he'll elevate his game on the biggest stage.

With Caesars and FanDuel both offering +108 odds for this same 5.5 projected total, DraftKings again gives the best value.

San Diego State to win by 1-5 points (+470) ⭐⭐⭐

As +105 moneyline underdogs (+1.5 on the spread), it's worth a flier at +470 odds to see if the Aztecs continue to carry the Mountain West Conference torch and represent the league in the Final Four.

Before San Diego State’s impressive win over Alabama, Mountain West teams were 0-6 outright and 1-5 ATS in the Sweet 16. Alabama ranks first in D-I with 44.6 rebounds per game and seventh in rebounding differential (+7.2).

However, the Aztecs held tough against the Crimson Tide, securing 17 total offensive rebounds and 48 rebounds. San Diego State is more experienced than Creighton (21st compared to 158th in D-I experience) and has a much deeper bench (31st in bench minutes compared to the BlueJays, who rank 351st). Expect Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher to use that to his advantage with just one day off between games, while San Diego State covered both of its contests following a one-day layoff.

The value on this wager at FanDuel is much greater than DraftKings, which offers +400 odds for the Aztecs to win by 3-6 points.

Creighton vs. San Diego State prop picks made 3/25/2023 at 11:20 a.m. ET. 

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.