NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 14
Will we keep fading the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14 despite their continued efforts to prove critics wrong? Our NFL power rankings look at the top point spreads for Week 14.
There were several notable injuries in Week 13, but none were more significant for the betting markets than Jimmy Garoppolo's injury.
The San Francisco 49ers were a Super Bowl contender, and the club was widely considered the top team in the NFC. With Brock Purdy now under center, how will Garoppolo's injury impact the team's Week 14 spread against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Here are the power rankings of my favorite point-spread picks for Week 14 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; Lines as of Monday, Dec. 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET).
Check out our NFL Week 14 odds and lines analysis.
NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for Week 14
10. Rams +6 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Raiders
The Los Angeles Rams might not be the most exciting pick. But don't fool yourself, as they were receiving the bulk of the cash before their Week 13 game against the Seattle Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders have been one of the more overvalued teams in the market this season. That's largely due to the flashy names on their roster, like Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.
I have the Raiders priced as a 4.5-point favorite over the Rams. However, that's based on the assumption that John Wolford will be the Rams' starting quarterback. Make sure you check the injury report, as it's a short week and Wolford is suffering from a neck issue.
While I'm getting a small edge here with the Rams in terms of the numbers, don't jump in until Los Angeles is offered at +7.
9. Titans -3.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Jaguars
It's somewhat surprising to see value on the Tennessee Titans' side of the spread after the Jacksonville Jaguars just lost 40-14 to the Detroit Lions in Week 13. As for the Titans, they didn’t do any better while losing 35-10 to the Philadelphia Eagles, with A.J. Brown getting his revenge on Titans ownership.
I believe the Titans should be a 4-point favorite over the Jaguars, so there's only a slight edge here. The difference of half a point may not seem significant, but this spread is trading in the middle of some key numbers. Your edge will greatly increase if you can locate Titans -3 at some point during the week.
Since FanDuel is trading the Titans' side of the spread at increased juice (-114), it’s likely this spread will move to Titans -4 before shifting to Titans -3.
8. Seahawks -3.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Panthers
Our expectation was the Carolina Panthers would fold after firing Matt Rhule and tank for the first overall pick, but that hasn't been the case. The Panthers have won two of their last three games and are still in contention for the NFC South title, even at just 4-8.
However, the market is still overvaluing the Panthers against the Seahawks in Week 14. There's a three-point difference between what the Seahawks are trading at in the market and my 6.5-point projection for them against the Panthers.
Keep an eye on the injury report and the health of Kenneth Walker. Walker has been an integral part of the Seahawks' offensive success. The Seahawks at -3.5 is a consensus number across the board, with PointsBet offering the best price due to its 14-cent NFL spreads.
7. Cowboys -16.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Texans
A spread of 16.5 points is no joke in the NFL, but the Dallas Cowboys have been showing lately they're capable of completely destroying opposing teams. The Cowboys have recently defeated the Minnesota Vikings 40-3 and the Indianapolis Colts 54-19.
I don't own much of an edge here, as I make the Cowboys a 17-point favorite. But I prefer this spread since I don't believe the Houston Texans' offense will be able to score against the Cowboys' defense.
There's a small window of opportunity to purchase the Cowboys below 17 points, as this line is likely to be bet up. It's unlikely that you'll be able to back the Cowboys if you don't buy this early in the week, as I anticipate them eventually becoming at least an 18.5-point favorite.
6. Ravens +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) at Steelers
Don't look now, but the Pittsburgh Steelers have won three of their last four games and are at 5-7 overall. Along with the Steelers' recent success, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was injured on Sunday and is expected to miss some time. With both of those storylines coming together, the Steelers being overvalued in the market isn't surprising.
I still make the Steelers a 1-point favorite, even with Tyler Huntley under center for the Ravens. Huntley has been a solid replacement for Jackson in the past, so we're seeing a slight overreaction to the injury.
I would love to buy this line at Ravens +3, but I doubt it'll ever get there. The Ravens are trading anywhere from +1.5 (-108) to +2.5 (-110) in the market.
5. Jets +9.5 (-106 via FanDuel) at Bills
The New York Jets defeated the Buffalo Bills 20-17 in Week 9 despite Zach Wilson throwing for only 154 yards. Now Mike White has thrown for 684 yards over his first two starts for the Jets in 2022 against the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. Although I don't expect the Jets to win against the Bills again, their defense will enable them to keep the game close.
I make the Bills 6.5-point favorites over the Jets at home. If you bet the Jets' side of the spread, you'll receive an extra three points of value according to my numbers. FanDuel offers the best price for the Jets, as it's the only sportsbook with reduced juice (-106) on the Jets. Hold off on purchasing this line and wait for a book to offer the Jets at +10.
4. Dolphins -2.5 (-114 via FanDuel) at Chargers
There's no need to overreact to one game when Tua Tagovailoa struggled and the Miami Dolphins lost to the San Francisco 49ers. There are injuries along the Dolphins' offensive line, and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was also forced to leave the game on Sunday due to an injury. I'm confident Mike McDaniel and his coaching staff will make the necessary adjustments for Week 14.
The Dolphins should be a 5-point favorite over the Los Angeles Chargers on the road, giving us an opportunity to price shop early in the week. That's why I'm interested in betting on their side of the spread.
It's possible to purchase the Dolphins below the key number of three points at -2.5 (-114) through FanDuel. With the juice at +100 through BetMGM and PointsBet, Dolphins -2.5 (-114) is a more valuable spread than Dolphins -3 (+100).
3. Patriots -1 (-110 via Caesars) at Cardinals
It would be wonderful if Matt Patricia listened to Mac Jones and threw the ball this week against the Arizona Cardinals. The New England Patriots' defense is among the league's best, with Football Outsiders ranking the unit second in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Patriots' offense has held them back all season, and Kendrick Bourne criticized the play designs after the team lost to the Bills on Thursday night.
Despite New England playing on the road, I make the Patriots a 3.5-point favorite over the Cardinals in Week 14. They're trading as 1-point favorites through Caesars, which is the best price. Some sportsbooks have already adjusted the line to Patriots -2, so I anticipate that becoming more of a consensus number. Therefore, I would buy this line right away.
2. Lions +0.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Vikings
This matchup features the Detroit Lions, my favorite spread team lately that's covered five consecutive games on the power rankings. Then there's also the Vikings, my least favorite spread team that I continue to fade, and they keep winning somehow. It’s possible that I shouldn’t have been so off from the market on the Vikings while fading them for so long. But I've certainly been right about the Lions.
I make the Lions a 3-point favorite over the Vikings at home, which is quite a difference from where they're currently trading. The Lions are available at +1.5 (-118) through FanDuel. However, PointsBet is offering a better line at Lions +0.5 (-107) due to the juice.
Additionally, there are sportsbooks such as Caesars posting the Lions as a pick'em. The +0.5 is more valuable. If the game ends in a tie, you'll win at PointsBet but not through Caesars.
1. Buccaneers +3 (-105 via DraftKings) at 49ers
The 49ers may have dominated the Dolphins in Week 13, but the win came at a heavy cost. Starting quarterback Garoppolo suffered a broken ankle and will miss the remainder of the season. The Niners will now start Purdy at quarterback after already losing Trey Lance to injury, and he's a rookie out of Iowa State.
Buccaneers +3 is by far my favorite spread of the week, as I don't believe the markets have adequately accounted for the change in quarterback from Garoppolo to Purdy. If Garoppolo was starting for the 49ers, I would make this spread -4.5. So there's an adjustment with Purdy starting, but only 1.5 points.
That isn’t nearly enough, as the spread should be closer to a pick’em. I'm all over this spread because of the reduced juice available for the Buccaneers at DraftKings and a key number of three points.
Where to Bet on the NFL
NFL against-the-spread picks made 12/05/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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