Tom Brady Prop Picks, Predictions: Top Values on Star QB vs. Saints on Monday Night Football
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the New Orleans Saints to conclude the Week 13 schedule. Here are our top Brady prop picks for Monday Night Football.
After Brady went 0-4 against the Saints through his first two seasons with the Bucs, Tampa Bay beat New Orleans 20-10 at the Caesars Superdome in Week 2. However, Brady didn’t impress while completing just 18 of 34 pass attempts for 190 yards and a touchdown.
Additionally, he posted his worst quarterback rating (79.3) of the season and tied his lowest grade (65.5), according to PFF.
Brady will be playing without Tampa Bay's starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs in front of him. Wirfs will miss Monday’s game with an ankle injury, and his absence is a huge blow to the team's offensive line.
Here are our top Tom Brady prop picks for the Monday Night Football tilt between the Saints and Buccaneers (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet).
Check out our top Monday Night Football Saints-Buccaneers picks, prop picks, and same-game parlay.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds
Tom Brady Prop Picks for Monday Night Football
- Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130 via FanDuel)
- Over 24.5 passing completions (-125 via PointsBet)
- Over 0.5 passing TDs in each half (+120 via FanDuel)
Top Prop Picks for Tom Brady
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130) ★★★
Brady has thrown for multiple touchdowns in consecutive games, and I anticipate the Bucs continuing to attack vertically Monday with Wirfs sidelined. Tampa's ground game was already struggling while ranking second-last in both rushing DVOA and run grade, according to Football Outsiders and PFF, respectively.
Additionally, the Saints' pass defense hasn’t been as stout recently. They rank 20th in pass defense DVOA over their past four games after sitting 12th through the first eight weeks of the season. Saints four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore is also questionable for Monday because of an abdomen injury that's led to being held out the past seven contests.
FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook are both offering the Over on 1.5 touchdowns at -130 odds, whereas Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, and PointsBet have it listed at -135.
Over 24.5 passing completions (-125) ★★★
The Buccaneers haven’t been able to consistently move the ball on the ground, so Brady will surely attack the Saints with short and intermediate pass attempts on Monday.
I'm projecting Brady to finish with 25.9 completions, so this isn’t a huge edge. But I’m not concerned, as game flow should take the ball out of Brady’s hands Monday. The NFC South remains wide open, so even if Tampa Bay does build a decent lead, Brady should continue attempting to move the ball downfield through the air. I doubt Tampa Bay takes its foot off the pedal after blowing a second-half lead in Week 12.
FanDuel has set this total at 25.5 and is offering notably better odds (-102). I prefer the lower total that’s only available through PointsBet, which leads to the added buffer below my 25.9 completions projection. But if you’re comfortable with the 25.5 total as an Over bettor, FanDuel is the place to go
Over 0.5 passing TDs in each half (+120) ★★★
This is a prebuilt prop found under FanDuel's game specials, and it correlates with the previous recommendation of Over 1.5 touchdowns. It’s being offered at plus-money odds, which are difficult to come by among the available props for Brady ahead of Monday’s game.
Brady has thrown a touchdown pass during both halves in each of his past two games, and the Saints' defense has been more susceptible through the air over the last four weeks. I’m even more bullish about this prop if Lattimore is ruled out or limited.
I’m also eyeing a statistical correction in the touchdowns column for Tampa wide receiver Mike Evans. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 4, and the pass-catcher has recorded a pedestrian three touchdowns over 10 games in 2022. That comes after scoring 27 times through 32 games in Brady’s first two years with the Bucs.
Where to Bet on Monday Night Football Prop Picks
Monday Night Football prop picks made 12/5/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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