Conquering run in the first inning prop

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  • princecharles
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-22-10
    • 827

    #1
    Conquering run in the first inning prop
    My working theory is to isolate the extreamly valuable 'good for pitcher = bad for hitter' variables, with the goal to bet the NO first inning run.

    This would be in conjunction with already easily available data about the starting lineups and the pitcher's historic successes.

    Where I would collaborate is in generating 3D models of ballparks, then overlaying my key factors, some of which include angle of solar insolation (angle at which the sun is hitting the earth), then parse this through the resulting shadowing effect of the infield, which is a particularly strong variant in the early innings of summer west coast early evening start games.

    Knowledge of pregame in stadium activities involving the players is another of my factors.
    Very interesting comment an announcer made about home fan photo day being a killer to the 'rhythm and rituals' the players normally enjoy.
    Enough said about that right now.

    Also, I'm having a lot more luck this year than last In aquiring feeds to steaming web cams in ball parks.

    This gives me the most accurate 'look' of the weather and cloudiness, rather than the normal weather data. (Temp, humidity, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, etc.)

    What's amazing is during the immeadiate pregame warmup, the starting home pitcher and his bullpen catcher know EXACTLY how his stuff is, and how well he will start.

    Let's just say aquiring this info has led me down some virgin yet doable avenues.

    High level of discretion an absolute requirement.
    Last edited by princecharles; 09-28-12, 02:32 AM.
  • TallAzCrowe
    SBR Sharp
    • 05-02-09
    • 299

    #2
    Ive been banging this prop a lot as of late, with some success. It truly it is a crap shoot though, I lost one due to errors today. This time of year I think its easier to pick due to teams calling up AAA players and certain teams needing wins. I play a lot of no scores in Astros & Pirates, avoid teams like Rangers Yankees A's. Its all about finding the match up you like, today was a perfect example with Shields v Peavy. Sox bats cold and Rays staff is dealing, that was my biggest wager of the day in MLB, which cashed. Good luck on your choices.
    Comment
    • Mantle7
      SBR MVP
      • 08-05-12
      • 3138

      #3
      My first time playing 1st inning no scores I parlayed a 3 way. It hit. Then I do a little homework, put some more effort into it, and the next day I hit a 4 way. $50 payed $600. It was amazing. I thought I figured out it all out. Now I can't hit one to save my own life. It's so weird. Good luck... Post plays, man.
      Comment
      • Mantle7
        SBR MVP
        • 08-05-12
        • 3138

        #4
        Problem is Vegas uses your model except it's much more advanced. No offense. They do all the work for us.
        Comment
        • TallAzCrowe
          SBR Sharp
          • 05-02-09
          • 299

          #5
          Just scanning todays games and pitching match-ups I like no score 1st in Reds/Pirates game. Burnett on mound for Bucs and their bats are cold, altough they put up some runs ystrdy, I only hope Bailey doesnt give up that 1st inn HR to McCutchen. I wait till game time to make any 1st inn wager so I can confirm line-ups. Reds/Pirates just jumps out at me based on the pitchers and the Bucs cold bats, nothing else, will look closer as game time nears. Likely a play but not till game time.
          Comment
          • TallAzCrowe
            SBR Sharp
            • 05-02-09
            • 299

            #6
            Well that was a loss but if I lose a bet to a no-hitter I guess I can handle it, kinda like losing skins on the golf course, I don't mind it as much if it's to a birdie or eagle. On the flip side I did hit the SD/SF game for no 1st inn score. Better luck tmrw.
            Comment
            • princecharles
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-22-10
              • 827

              #7
              Originally posted by Mantle7
              My first time playing 1st inning no scores I parlayed a 3 way. It hit. Then I do a little homework, put some more effort into it, and the next day I hit a 4 way. $50 payed $600. It was amazing. I thought I figured out it all out. Now I can't hit one to save my own life. It's so weird. Good luck... Post plays, man.
              Hey Mantle
              Where were you able to parlay these props?
              I only know of 5Dimes. Anyone else?

              Thanks so much.

              More insight to follow boys.

              Stick with me. You see the way I figure shit out.

              :-)
              Comment
              • actiondan
                SBR MVP
                • 10-16-10
                • 3398

                #8
                Prince charles u catch the pics of ur daughter in law?
                Comment
                • princecharles
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-22-10
                  • 827

                  #9
                  Originally posted by actiondan
                  Prince charles u catch the pics of ur daughter in law?
                  Not only did I see see them, the Royal scrapbook's pages stick together now!
                  Comment
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