MLB Runlines are not Profitable....Important Read for Newbies
Here is a nice article on MLB Runlines:-
Major League Baseball: Betting the runline isn’t worth the time or the trouble
If I told you that away runline dogs were hitting at a rate of 65.51% in Major League Baseball over a sample size of 693 games, what would your reaction be? Perhaps a better question might be: What is the first thing you want to know?
Or what if I gave you the opposite of that. What if I told you that home runline favorites over the same sample size were hitting at a rate of 34.49%?
Which of these sides would you be more likely to take?
Or what if instead of away runline dogs and home runline favorites, I gave you the opposite of those. What if I told you that away runline favorites won at a rate of 42.96% over a 291-game sample and home runline dogs hit 57.4% of the time over the same sample?
The first thing you would want to know, of course, is the average money line for each of these different types of bets and the corresponding break-even points. And once you start doing the math, you’ll understand how foolish all four of these bets truly are.
Because if you think you’ll make money, certainly any reasonable amount of money, betting baseball run lines, you’re sadly mistaken. And yet, many people try to create systems as the season progresses, hoping to find certain thresholds where profitable betting angles might exist.
But there are no profitable runline betting angles.
Why can’t I make money betting run lines?
Let’s use the away runline underdogs example above to illustrate how small the profit potential is when betting the spread in baseball. I think we would all agree that hitting 65.51% is an incredible feat. If we were to project out the rest of the season, any reasonable person would expect that number to decrease at least a few percentage points.
Money line underdogs dominated the early part of baseball season and had actually won more games than favorites through the first month. So, if that’s the case, runline underdogs are going to perform even better since they are catching +1.5 runs in every game.
But since the average runline road underdog is -180, that means you have to hit 64.29% just to break even. That leaves you very little margin for error, especially if you are using a sportsbook that uses 15-cent or even 20-cent lines.
If you look at the odds for any of the other three categories — road runline favorites, home runline favorites and home runline dogs — you will notice that none of these bets, regardless of percentage, will provide you with a profitable betting opportunity over a 162-game season.
My suggestion is to bet the baseball money line, try to find +EV situations, and wager accordingly. Oddsmakers release the runline for a reason, and it isn’t because they like to give away free money.
Major League Baseball: Betting the runline isn’t worth the time or the trouble
If I told you that away runline dogs were hitting at a rate of 65.51% in Major League Baseball over a sample size of 693 games, what would your reaction be? Perhaps a better question might be: What is the first thing you want to know?
Or what if I gave you the opposite of that. What if I told you that home runline favorites over the same sample size were hitting at a rate of 34.49%?
Which of these sides would you be more likely to take?
Or what if instead of away runline dogs and home runline favorites, I gave you the opposite of those. What if I told you that away runline favorites won at a rate of 42.96% over a 291-game sample and home runline dogs hit 57.4% of the time over the same sample?
The first thing you would want to know, of course, is the average money line for each of these different types of bets and the corresponding break-even points. And once you start doing the math, you’ll understand how foolish all four of these bets truly are.
Because if you think you’ll make money, certainly any reasonable amount of money, betting baseball run lines, you’re sadly mistaken. And yet, many people try to create systems as the season progresses, hoping to find certain thresholds where profitable betting angles might exist.
But there are no profitable runline betting angles.
Why can’t I make money betting run lines?
Let’s use the away runline underdogs example above to illustrate how small the profit potential is when betting the spread in baseball. I think we would all agree that hitting 65.51% is an incredible feat. If we were to project out the rest of the season, any reasonable person would expect that number to decrease at least a few percentage points.
Money line underdogs dominated the early part of baseball season and had actually won more games than favorites through the first month. So, if that’s the case, runline underdogs are going to perform even better since they are catching +1.5 runs in every game.
But since the average runline road underdog is -180, that means you have to hit 64.29% just to break even. That leaves you very little margin for error, especially if you are using a sportsbook that uses 15-cent or even 20-cent lines.
If you look at the odds for any of the other three categories — road runline favorites, home runline favorites and home runline dogs — you will notice that none of these bets, regardless of percentage, will provide you with a profitable betting opportunity over a 162-game season.
My suggestion is to bet the baseball money line, try to find +EV situations, and wager accordingly. Oddsmakers release the runline for a reason, and it isn’t because they like to give away free money.
