Trends, trends, trends

[posey]

New thread for me to start from scratch.

Bookie: Pinnaclesports
Bankroll: $10.000

Card for 2014-05-31:

CIN @ ARI, CIN ML, $100, -105
ATL @ MIA, MIA ML, $100, +109
ATL @ MIA, u8.0, $100, -139
NYM @ PHI, PHI ML, $100, -118
NYM @ PHI, u8.5, $100, -124
CHC @ MIL, u8.0, $100, -128
LAA @ OAK, o7.5, $100, -116

[a4u2fear]

betting trends will lead you into a pit.

[posey]

You don't even know how I set up my bets but you know that it leads me into a pit? Alright.

E.g. when I use those numbers:
- Cueto vs. Diamondbacks: 6-1 W-L (4.3-2.7 runs per game)
- Reds as favs at Dbacks since '10: 6-3 W-L (6.5-5.1 runs per game)
- Dbacks at home: 9-20 W-L (4.3-5.3 runs per game)
- McCarthy's last 22 starts as a Dback: 5-17 W-L (3.0-5.1 runs per game)
- McCarthy in home games for the Dbacks: 5-13 W-L (3.9 - 5.0 runs per game)
(and a few others) and call those numbers 'trends' it will lead me into a pit?

Or those stats:
- Runs per game in W. Peralta's starts in 2014: 6.3 runs per game (2.9-3.4)
- Runs per game in J. Hammel's starts in 2014: 7.1 runs per game (4.1-3.0)
- First matchup of both starters this season: 4 runs (4-0 for Cubs)
- Cubs in day games on the road in 2014: 6.9 runs per game (2.8-4.1)
- Brewers in day games at home in 2014: 6.0 runs per game (3.2-2.8)


I don't do anything else as most others who look into stats or numbers. But when I call those things 'trends' because I back them up by database queries it leads me into a pit?

[posey]

Glad this damn month of May is over. Can't remember having such a bad month since 2 or 3 years. Tons of bullpen losses, aces getting roughed up, and so on.

Card for 2014-05-31:

CIN @ ARI, CIN ML, $100, -105 W 5-0, +$95,2
ATL @ MIA, MIA ML, $100, +109 L 9-5, -$100
ATL @ MIA, u8.0, $100, -139 L 9-5, -$100
NYM @ PHI, PHI ML, $100, -118 L 5-4, -$100
NYM @ PHI, u8.5, $100, -124 L 5-4, -$100
CHC @ MIL, u8.0, $100, -128 P 8-0, +-$0
LAA @ OAK, o7.5, $100, -116 W 3-11, +$86,2

2-4-1, -$218.6

Overall: 2-4-1
Bankroll: $9.781,4 (-$218.6)

[posey]

Card for 2014-06-01:

COL @ CLE, CLE ML, $98, -118
TBR @ BOS, BOS ML, $98, -154
TEX @ WSH, TEX ML, $98, -127
BAL @ HOU, BAL ML, $98, -114
SDP @ CWS, u 8.0, $98, -142
CIN @ ARI, CIN ML, $98, +120
CIN @ ARI, u 8.5, $98, -124

[Smutbucket]

Ya a24ufear it depends on which trends you look at....problem is there's 10x amount of stupid useless trends then there are meaningful trends

Those are some nice looking trends Posey, thanks for posting , I'll be checking in

I was already leaning TeX and cin for today....what trends do you have to back those if you don't mind sharing....

[posey]

You mean for the Cincinnati and Texas games?

- Texas:
Rangers won their last 5 away games with Darvish as a starter. Rangers are 7-2 with Darvish starting this season. Rangers are 8-3 in day road games this year. Rangers are 17-10 as favs this year and 4-1 as away favs when the line was smaller than -110 (to be honest I didn't put too much faith in the last one ol).
Nationals are 7-6 in day home games this year, but score only 3.5 runs in those games on average (including the 10 runs from yesterday) which could be a bad sign against Yu. Nationals are only 4-6 with Roark starting and 1-4 in his last 5 starts. He doesn't get any run support whatsoever.
Nothing fancy for this one.

- Cincinnati:
Reds are 10-5 in their last 15 games at Arizona. Reds are only 4-8 in '14 when the opponent's starter was a lefty, but they score 3.9 runs per game on average in those games (3.4 against righties), suggesting that the losses were caused by bad Reds pitching (giving up 4.8 runs on average in games against lefthanders, but only 3.4 against right handers) and that the offense should take the upper hand in such games sooner or later so the Reds should win. Reds are 7-3 this season when Simon was starting. In Simon's 10 starts the total score was higher than 7 only 2 times all season long. He doesn't get any run support, but he doesn't give up many runs himself and he gets a lot of help from the bullpen, too.
Diamondbacks are still only 9-21 at home in '14. Diamondbacks are only 7-14 at home when the opponent starter was a righty. Diamondbacks are 5-7 with Miley starting, 1-5 in his last 6 starts. Diamondbacks are 3-7 in Miley's last 10 home starts. Miley's last 5 starts ended with a total score of under 8 (he pitched solid, but the Dbacks offense didn't help him).

[posey]

Yeah, 7-game-sweep yesterday.

Card for 2014-06-01:

COL @ CLE, CLE ML, $98, -118 W 4-6 +$83
TBR @ BOS, BOS ML, $98, -154 W 0-4 +$63.6
TEX @ WSH, TEX ML, $98, -127 W 2-0 +$77.1
BAL @ HOU, BAL ML, $98, -114 W 9-4 +85.9
SDP @ CWS, u 8.0, $98, -142 W 1-4 +$70
CIN @ ARI, CIN ML, $98, +120 W 4-3 +$117.6
CIN @ ARI, u 8.5, $98, -124 W 4-3 +$79

7 - 0 - 0, +$576.2

Overall: 9 - 4 - 1
Bankroll: $10.357,6 (+$357,6)

[Alex Vaile]

Yeah, 7-game-sweep yesterday.



7 - 0 - 0, +$576.2

Overall: 9 - 4 - 1
Bankroll: $10.357,6 (+$357,6)

Way to go Posey! Missed you there for last couple weeks but played reds other nite with you and won. I had a big day yesterday too. BOL

[posey]

Card for 2014-06-02:

TBR @ MIA, o 7.0, $103, -130
KCR @ STL, o 7.5, $103, -119
SEA @ NYY, SEA ML, $103, -125


Thank you Alex! All the best to you, too!

[posey]

Card for 2014-06-02:

TBR @ MIA, o 7.0, $103, -130 L 1-3 -$103
KCR @ STL, o 7.5, $103, -119 L 6-0 -$103
SEA @ NYY, SEA ML, $103, -125 W 11-2 +$82.4

1 - 2 - 0, -$123.6

Overall: 10 - 6 - 1
Bankroll: $10.234 (+$234)

[Alex Vaile]

Hey Posey what do you think of the Jays today. I plugged in the info using similar trends you used in your Seattle Yankee comparison yesterday. All signs point to Blue Jays today except how they fare at Detroit 2 and 4 since last year. Where do u fall on this game?

[posey]

Card for 2014-06-03:

OAK @ NYY, OAK ML, $102, -126
LAA @ HOU, LAA ML, $102, -125
MIN @ MIL, MIL ML, $102, -150
TOR @ DET, u 9.5, $102, -126

[posey]

Hey Posey what do you think of the Jays today. I plugged in the info using similar trends you used in your Seattle Yankee comparison yesterday. All signs point to Blue Jays today except how they fare at Detroit 2 and 4 since last year. Where do u fall on this game?

As you can see I am going with under 9.5. I was close to bet on the Jays but in the end I didn't place a bet on them. Reason is that the Tigers bullpen and Sanchez have given up only 18 runs overall in his last 6 starts. Hutchison and the Jays' pen have given up 27 runs in his last 6 starts. The Jays offense has scored 28 runs in their last 6 away games. But besides 7 runs against Lester, 13 of the other 21 runs came against Doubront and Buchholz, which I consider mediocre at best until this point of the season. The Tigers are 9-2 over the last 11 against the Jays and 4-1 at home against the Jays since the start of 2012. Of course you must consider that the sample size is quite small because they don't play each other too frequently. All in all I think it could go either way. I go with the under because the Jays offense isn't as consistent as one could think, which may be caused by their recent success. Over the last 14 days the Jays offense has the 3rd highest BABIP in the whole league, they will come down to earth sooner or later. The Jays runs scored over the last 10: 3, 5, 3, 10, 9, 3, 6, 1, 12, 4. 10 runs against Bedard (they rock lefties), 9 runs against Cobb, 6 runs against Shields and 12 runs against Brooks. A ton of homeruns over their last games, too. But Anibal Sanchez has a HR/9 of 0.00 in his 8 starts this season. Of course this should and will change. But although the Tigers gave up 52 runs in 7 games from May 20 to May 26, their pitching was solid in May and they have given up only 22 runs in their last 6 games.
Another thing to consider: a u 9.5 (the total is at 9.0 right now at Pinnacle, but the odds on u9.5 are really good IMO) with Sanchez starting is more or less a gift IMO. Since he played for the Tigers he has pitched in 27 games. There were only 3 (!) games in which the total was higher than 8.5 (2x 9.0, 1x 9.5). The average total in starts of Sanchez is 8.1.

[Alex Vaile]

Right on man thanks. Gold solid info. I layed off till I heard back from you.
I posted a couple active querys from killer sports page in the sdql thread.
It points towards to royals losing and Texas winning a low scoring game. Check them out if they interest you. Thanks again!

[posey]

Thx to you! I gonna look into the thread right now.

[RollinDo]

Right on man thanks. Gold solid info. I layed off till I heard back from you.
I posted a couple active querys from killer sports page in the sdql thread.
It points towards to royals losing and Texas winning a low scoring game. Check them out if they interest you. Thanks again!

Hey. Just saw you posted a low - scoring game in Arlington. You think Under 9 is a good play? I have done pretty well on TX Unders as long as they don't face lefties.

[farmhouse1]

I like the Detroit under. Tigers never seen Hutchinson and he's pretty good unknown pitcher think he's a rookie or only a couple years in in the majors. Alsocsanchez being pitching very well lately

[Alex Vaile]

Hey. Just saw you posted a low - scoring game in Arlington. You think Under 9 is a good play? I have done pretty well on TX Unders as long as they don't face lefties.

Well according to the query in this situation out of 24 games 8 went over and 16 went under
team=Rangers and date>=20090921 and tA(runs, N=5)<2.5 and p:margin<=3 is the sdql query

[Alex Vaile]

I like the Detroit under. Tigers never seen Hutchinson and he's pretty good unknown pitcher think he's a rookie or only a couple years in in the majors. Alsocsanchez being pitching very well lately

Posey likes the Tor Det under and convinced me as well

[posey]

Card for 2014-06-03:

OAK @ NYY, OAK ML, $102, -126 W 5-2 +$81.6
LAA @ HOU, LAA ML, $102, -125 L 2-7 -$102
MIN @ MIL, MIL ML, $102, -150 L 6-4 -$102
TOR @ DET, u 9.5, $102, -126 W 5-3, +$80.9

2 - 2 - 0, -$41.5

Overall: 12 - 8 - 1
Bankroll: $10.192,50 (+$192,50)

[RollinDo]

I went with the Under 9.5 in Rangers game...was tied 2-2 in 8th and then O's put up 6 runs...go figure...should have gone with your Under...nice hit there.
I was killing Unders early in the year, but now I'm basically fade material with those. I either fo 1st 5 innings and it just goes Over and then nobody scores rest of game with 2 horrible pens or unfolds like last night where I was more worried about 1st 5 innings.

[posey]

Gonna change my right up for now. When a team is written in capital letters I play the ML on this team. If I play a over or under both teams are written in small letters and the bet is added to it. Makes it a little bit easier for me. After the bet I will write down my stake and after that the odds.

It may be that I play too many bets today, I want to lower the number of bets in the future, but today I get so many bets with good numbers that I don't know of which one I should stay away.

Card for 2014-06-03:
PIT @ sdp, $102, +102
ARI @ col, $102, +118
SEA @ atl, $102, +130
MIA @ tbr, $102, +173
MIL @ min, $102, -102
mil @ min, u 8.5, $102, +106
ari @ col, u 10.5, $102, +100
bos @ cle, o 7.5, $102, +101

[posey]

I went with the Under 9.5 in Rangers game...was tied 2-2 in 8th and then O's put up 6 runs...go figure...should have gone with your Under...nice hit there.
I was killing Unders early in the year, but now I'm basically fade material with those. I either fo 1st 5 innings and it just goes Over and then nobody scores rest of game with 2 horrible pens or unfolds like last night where I was more worried about 1st 5 innings.

I really don't know what's going on this year to be honest. IMO this year is so strange compared to other years regarding game outcomes. Sometimes it feels totally random. Well...that's baseball. A season long grinding.


BTW:
The bet on MIA ML has no deeper statistical background. I am totally going with my own thoughts and feels here which I don't do often. No special query background. I saw that Tampa Bay is such a huge favorite and thought 'wtf this can't be real' and since I do have some numbers in my mind which always pop up when I read the matchups I placed the bet.
1) TBR is doing bad all year.
2) David Price is doing bad compared to his previous seasons.
3) The Marlins like to bat against lefties.
That's it. IMO David Price and TBR have no right to be a fav of -180 up to -200. This is a joke.

[Alex Vaile]

I went with the Under 9.5 in Rangers game...was tied 2-2 in 8th and then O's put up 6 runs...go figure...should have gone with your Under...nice hit there.
I was killing Unders early in the year, but now I'm basically fade material with those. I either fo 1st 5 innings and it just goes Over and then nobody scores rest of game with 2 horrible pens or unfolds like last night where I was more worried about 1st 5 innings.

Ya that was a rough ending there I had that 1 also. All 3 of the games I had yesterday with queries lost.

[posey]

Card for 2014-06-03:
PIT @ sdp, $102, +102 L 2-3 -$102
ARI @ col, $102, +118 W 16-8, +$120.4
SEA @ atl, $102, +130 W 2-0, +$132.6
MIA @ tbr, $102, +173 W 5-4, +$176.5
MIL @ min, $102, -102 L 4-6, -$102
mil @ min, u 8.5, $102, +106 L 4-6, -$102
ari @ col, u 10.5, $102, +100 L 16-8, -$102
bos @ cle, o 7.5, $102, +101 W 4-4 (game still going right now, but already over), +$103

4 - 4 - 0, +$124.5

Overall: 16-12-1
Bankroll: $10.317 (+$317)

[RollinDo]

Nice hit on Marlins. I was contemplating them, but the line movement was all over a Rays W...wonder what that was all about...and same with Cards dipping down. It was freakin Wainwright!!!!

[posey]

Yeah, thx. As I said such odds for a Marlins win were a joke under those circumstances. Gonna bet them again today. It's more or less going against a trend, since Jacob Turner has a very bad road record regarding W-L. But the problem here is, that he simply hasn't gotten any run support in away games over the course of his career. His career road ERA is much better than his career home ERA (4.09 and 4.83). And although Odorizzi has done better lately and was much better at home than on the road I go with the Marlins here. The Rays look like they are doing everything wrong right now.

Does anybody mind me stating the decimal odds instead the american odds? I hope it doesn't. Makes it much easier for me because we use the decimal odds here in Europe.



Card for 2014-06-05:
MIA @ tbr, 2.380, $103
mia @ tbr, o 8.0, $103
NYM @ chc, 2.08, $103
TOR @ det, 2.49, $103

[posey]

I forgot to post the line of the over 8.0 at Tampa which I played yesterday. It was at 2.23. It was a piece of another nice day.

Card for 2014-06-05:

MIA @ tbr, 2.380, $103 W 11-6 +$142.4
mia @ tbr, o 8.0, 2.230, $103 W 11-6 +$126.7
NYM @ chc, 2.08, $103 L 4-7 -$103
TOR @ det, 2.49, $103 W 7-3 +$153.5

3 - 1 - 0, +$319.6

Overall: 19 - 13 - 1
Bankroll: $10.636,6 (+$636,6)

[Pauulzcappin]

good job so far.

[posey]

Thx, sir. Hope it lasts.

[posey]

I forgot to mention one thing I always do when placing a bet. I select the option that both scheduled pitchers must start.


Card for 2014-06-06:

MIL @ pit, 1.909, $106
SEA @ tbr, 2.250, $106
hou @ min, u 7.5, 1.970, $106
chs @ laa, u 8.0, 2.050, $106


BOL to all.

[l3randonf]

So for today, MIL @ PIT.... what is the pick? What is 1.909?

[posey]

See post #23 and #28.
Team written in capital letters = team I place a ML bet on.
1.909 = decimal odds; 1.909 = -110 in american odds.

SBR offers an odds converter:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/

[posey]

Ouch. Rough day.

Card for 2014-06-06:

MIL @ pit, 1.909, $106 L 5-15 -$106
SEA @ tbr, 2.250, $106 L 0-4 -$106
hou @ min, u 7.5, 1.970, $106 L 5-4 -$106
chs @ laa, u 8.0, 2.050, $106 L 4-8 -$106

0 - 4 - 0, -$424

Overall: 19 - 17 - 1
Bankroll: $10.212,6 (+$212,6)