MLB 2014 Playoffs Picks and Discussion

**Pauulzcappin** · 10-02-14, 01:56 PM

long time no see lyon. i like the over in this one but line has moved against me yet i see no umpire assignments.

camden afternoon game should be fun.

**lyon804** · 10-02-14, 02:13 PM

Hey Pau! Had a big season is baseball and wanted to share my picks for the playoffs. Its not easy for me to make the time commitment but winning isn't as fun when your not enjoying it with others. I like over here as well but couldn't pull the trigger. 2 Flyball pitchers going in a hitters park. I paused because both lineups has holes and can be navigated with any brains.

**Itsamazing777** · 10-02-14, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

Detroit at Baltimore has the makings of a great series. Tigers -145 to win the series. Tigers have the more playoff experience and more household names, but that is where the advantages end. There is a reason why Detroit barely wins the AL Central each year when most think they have a super team. Miggy and Vmart along with some power arms in the rotation make them a glamour team but there is not a better example of stars and scrubs team in the playoffs. Detroit a flawed team. Outside of there starting pitchers and a couple of hitters they do very few things well. The team defense is poor and they have little team speed. The bullpen is very shaky and unreliable. And last but not least Tigers Manager Brad Ausmus leaves alot to be desired just like his predecessor. All of these things make this game a bad matchup against the Orioles who have very solid team with a strong bullpen and nobody is better prepared at exploiting another teams weaknesses and knowing when to pull the trigger in the bullpen like Buck Showalter.

As for todays matchup with Scherzer and Tillman. I give a slight edge to Scherzer here but Tillman has been solid and at the end of the day Scherzer will probably pitch 6inn or 7 at most and don't be surprised if its a tied game when he leaves to open the gates to the Tigers nightmare... Love the Orioles here.. One of the best managers of his generation in Showalter going against a rookie in Ausmus. That edge along with the bullpen here I see alot of value in the Orioles here. They should be favored.

Orioles +109 2U

And when was the last time the orioles made the playoffs consistently? Tigers go deep every year. Come on dude ....

**lyon804** · 10-02-14, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by Itsamazing777

And when was the last time the orioles made the playoffs consistently? Tigers go deep every year. Come on dude ....

Well I recognized in the third sentence that Detroit had more playoff experience?? I am discussing a match up here not what happened last year or the prior years.

**Itsamazing777** · 10-02-14, 03:30 PM

Fair enough. Tigers have jd Martinez now though making them even better than before. But may the best team win!

**lyon804** · 10-02-14, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Itsamazing777

Fair enough. Tigers have jd Martinez now though making them even better than before. But may the best team win!

Yeah, JD Martinez is the wild card. I think he is the most important player on Detroit this year. If he plays big I can see another deep run but if he is mute I believe Detroit will struggle.

**lyon804** · 10-02-14, 03:51 PM

Just grabbed Giants +168 1U. Peavy vs Strasburg. I got to take my chances with this number. I believe the Nationals are the most complete team in the entire playoffs but this number is inflated. Giants have too many old pro's that know how to get the job done and as I discussed the managers in my earlier post with Ausmus vs Showalter I take Bochy over Williams any day. While I never put too much stock in any one game especially a regular season game Strasburg was lit up by the Giants at home Aug 24th by the Giants. He went 4in gave up 8 hits and 5 runs and lost. Strasburg has no playoff experience and has been coddled. Peavy has playoff experience although shaky but I like this number i see a lot of value here. Peavy has been strong down the stretch getting 7/9 quality starts. I know the old veteran will be chomping at the bit.

**RollinDo** · 10-02-14, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

Just grabbed Giants +168 1U. Peavy vs Strasburg. I got to take my chances with this number. I believe the Nationals are the most complete team in the entire playoffs but this number is inflated. Giants have too many old pro's that know how to get the job done and as I discussed the managers in my earlier post with Ausmus vs Showalter I take Bochy over Williams any day. While I never put too much stock in any one game especially a regular season game Strasburg was lit up by the Giants at home Aug 24th by the Giants. He went 4in gave up 8 hits and 5 runs and lost. Strasburg has no playoff experience and has been coddled. Peavy has playoff experience although shaky but I like this number i see a lot of value here. Peavy has been strong down the stretch getting 7/9 quality starts. I know the old veteran will be chomping at the bit.

Why not take Giants +1? Plus money still, but you get that insurance.

**tatddy** · 10-02-14, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Why not take Giants +1? Plus money still, but you get that insurance.

I don't speak for lyon but I'd guess the reason is because +1 is just throwing value down the toilet. SF over the years, and the past few playoffs, has been exceptional in 1-2 run games. If they lose they're most likely losing by a few here.

SF has to win just 38% of the time in this spot to justify a +168 bet and their win probability is considerably higher than that in lyons estimation hence the shot here.

**lyon804** · 10-02-14, 04:14 PM

[QUOTE=tatddy;22712443]I don't speak for lyon but I'd guess the reason is because +1 is just throwing value down the toilet. SF over the years, and the past few playoffs, has been exceptional in 1-2 run games. If they lose they're most likely losing by a few here.

SF has to win just 38% of the time in this spot to justify a +168 bet and their win probability is considerably higher than that in lyons estimation hence the shot here.[/QUOTE]

Exactly. What are your thoughts?

**No coincidences** · 10-02-14, 04:14 PM

Good to see you posting, buddy.

I guess I'm confused by the Detroit/Baltimore series line. That makes me hesitate taking the O's in Game 1. If the Tigers are such a heavy favorite to win the series despite not having home field advantage, I doubt they drop a game with their ace pitching.

Anyway, BOL.

**lyon804** · 10-02-14, 04:33 PM

[QUOTE=No coincidences;22712507]Good to see you posting, buddy.

I guess I'm confused by the Detroit/Baltimore series line. That makes me hesitate taking the O's in Game 1. If the Tigers are such a heavy favorite to win the series despite not having home field advantage, I doubt they drop a game with their ace pitching.

Anyway, BOL.[/QeUOTE]

Good Point. I agree but I like the play. I get myself in trouble when I try to figure those things out. Just play the match up and let it ride.

**No coincidences** · 10-02-14, 04:40 PM

[QUOTE=lyon804;22712643]

Originally posted by No coincidences

Good to see you posting, buddy.

I guess I'm confused by the Detroit/Baltimore series line. That makes me hesitate taking the O's in Game 1. If the Tigers are such a heavy favorite to win the series despite not having home field advantage, I doubt they drop a game with their ace pitching.

Anyway, BOL.[/QeUOTE]

Good Point. I agree but I like the play. I get myself in trouble when I try to figure those things out. Just play the match up and let it ride.

I'd be really disappointed if Detroit didn't take care of business in this series, which means if they lose today with Scherzer vs. Tillman, they're in bad shape.

**Pauulzcappin** · 10-02-14, 06:41 PM

I cant believe this over isnt gonna hit. fukking 5 runs early and nothing since

**TankHankerous** · 10-02-14, 06:45 PM

It will go over 7

**t-wizzle** · 10-02-14, 06:47 PM

Holy fukking shit Lyon is back.

Welcome back dude.

**Pauulzcappin** · 10-02-14, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by TankHankerous

It will go over 7

pearce just missed one.

im very much annoyed.

**TankHankerous** · 10-02-14, 07:24 PM

My Migga

**Pauulzcappin** · 10-02-14, 07:26 PM

spot on in the manager lyon. brad dickbag ausmus calls a hit and run with miguel cabrera on deck and hunter lines into double play.

one pitch later cabrera sends one to the stands.

dumbfukk.

**l7ustin** · 10-03-14, 12:25 AM

wow this game was close then it went to the bullpen and they opened the gate to the tigers nightmare. no one saw that coming. os mashed the tigers bullpen SO HARD

**lyon804** · 10-03-14, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by l7ustin

wow this game was close then it went to the bullpen and they opened the gate to the tigers nightmare. no one saw that coming. os mashed the tigers bullpen SO HARD

Yep! Look at my writeup...

**lyon804** · 10-03-14, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

Detroit at Baltimore has the makings of a great series. Tigers -145 to win the series. Tigers have the more playoff experience and more household names, but that is where the advantages end. There is a reason why Detroit barely wins the AL Central each year when most think they have a super team. Miggy and Vmart along with some power arms in the rotation make them a glamour team but there is not a better example of stars and scrubs team in the playoffs. Detroit a flawed team. Outside of there starting pitchers and a couple of hitters they do very few things well. The team defense is poor and they have little team speed. The bullpen is very shaky and unreliable. And last but not least Tigers Manager Brad Ausmus leaves alot to be desired just like his predecessor. All of these things make this game a bad matchup against the Orioles who have very solid team with a strong bullpen and nobody is better prepared at exploiting another teams weaknesses and knowing when to pull the trigger in the bullpen like Buck Showalter.

As for todays matchup with Scherzer and Tillman. I give a slight edge to Scherzer here but Tillman has been solid and at the end of the day Scherzer will probably pitch 6inn or 7 at most and don't be surprised if its a tied game when he leaves to open the gates to the Tigers nightmare... Love the Orioles here.. One of the best managers of his generation in Showalter going against a rookie in Ausmus. That edge along with the bullpen here I see alot of value in the Orioles here. They should be favored.

Orioles +109 2U

It was a nightmare.

**lyon804** · 10-03-14, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

spot on in the manager lyon. brad dickbag ausmus calls a hit and run with miguel cabrera on deck and hunter lines into double play.

one pitch later cabrera sends one to the stands.

dumbfukk.

Congrats on your over man! I leaned that way but couldn't pull the trigger.

**lyon804** · 10-03-14, 10:29 AM

A few thoughts on last nites game between Detroit and O's.

Yes, I have a man crush on Buck Showalter. Here's a piece on him. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-...pitching-staff

I love a guy with brains. Baseball has been a anti-intelectual establishment for a loooong time. It has gotten better but many managers are so backwards and archaic in decision making.

Ausmus didn't let me down. Love it when somebody comes thru and he came up big in this game. As Paul referenced earlier post he sends runners in motion when Baltimore is on the ropes so to speak with the middle of the order coming up. Yes the line drive double play was lucky and bad luck on his part but it was a dumb move with two of the best hitters in the game coming up.

For me the dumbest move was puling Scherzer at only 94 pitches. He gave up a 1 out double but other wise he had been dominant since the early innings. Unless you have a lock down guy that you like better you ride your horse there. Scherzer was miffed he was pulled. This move along with a booted ball at short opened the flood gates.

Last but not least. When it was still a close game in the 8th he elects to intentionally walk right handed hitting JJ Hardy with 1st base open to load the bases for Ryan Flaherty. I Understand his strategy in setting up a double play but this is a flawed strategy. You go righty on righty and hope for a strikeout or weak contact that doesn't result in scoring the run. Bad move that also blew up on him. In the end it didn't really matter but the strategy is backwards. You don't walk a righty to face a lefty to load bases when you have a righty in. A desperate move. In my analysis these teams both have strengths and weaknesses like any other teams in the playoffs but the gulf between the brain trusts in the dugouts couldn't be any wider. A decisive edge in Baltimore's favor. Did you see how Buck Showalter managed that game in his bull pen? Few managers are in his realm.

**lyon804** · 10-03-14, 10:32 AM

Orioles +109 2U[/QUOTE]

1-0 +2.18

A good start. Now lets get SF +168 1U

**jmitch150** · 10-03-14, 10:34 AM

Tailing SF. BOL

**lyon804** · 10-03-14, 10:55 AM

I am taking a small shot with Detroit here believe it or not after I have bashed there manager. Verlander has been up and down all season but finished strong. This is desperation mode for Detroit as they have little shot at advancing if they go down 0-2. I believed Verlander will be at his best here as the pressure in a way is off him after Detroit's so called ace was off a little last nite. Detroit being challenged in the dugout I am betting Verlander comes up big and the bats get to Chen. I see no value at all in betting the current line as is because I believe Baltimore will win today if it is close so I am selling runs here and have Detroit-1.5 for half a unit.

Detroit -1.5 +158 .5U

**HOT WINGS** · 10-03-14, 11:04 AM

I agree with all of that and almost everyone is count ing JV out already. Took the -1 +136 and F5

**lyon804** · 10-03-14, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by HOT WINGS

I agree with all of that and almost everyone is count ing JV out already. Took the -1 +136 and F5

Lets get it.

**lyon804** · 10-03-14, 12:23 PM

Detroit got those bats going....

**Broncos** · 10-03-14, 12:35 PM

Detroit looking good.

**lyon804** · 10-03-14, 12:37 PM

Maybe they can finish today.

**No coincidences** · 10-03-14, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

A few thoughts on last nites game between Detroit and O's.

Yes, I have a man crush on Buck Showalter. Here's a piece on him. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-...pitching-staff

I love a guy with brains. Baseball has been a anti-intelectual establishment for a loooong time. It has gotten better but many managers are so backwards and archaic in decision making.

Ausmus didn't let me down. Love it when somebody comes thru and he came up big in this game. As Paul referenced earlier post he sends runners in motion when Baltimore is on the ropes so to speak with the middle of the order coming up. Yes the line drive double play was lucky and bad luck on his part but it was a dumb move with two of the best hitters in the game coming up.

For me the dumbest move was puling Scherzer at only 94 pitches. He gave up a 1 out double but other wise he had been dominant since the early innings. Unless you have a lock down guy that you like better you ride your horse there. Scherzer was miffed he was pulled. This move along with a booted ball at short opened the flood gates.

Last but not least. When it was still a close game in the 8th he elects to intentionally walk right handed hitting JJ Hardy with 1st base open to load the bases for Ryan Flaherty. I Understand his strategy in setting up a double play but this is a flawed strategy. You go righty on righty and hope for a strikeout or weak contact that doesn't result in scoring the run. Bad move that also blew up on him. In the end it didn't really matter but the strategy is backwards. You don't walk a righty to face a lefty to load bases when you have a righty in. A desperate move. In my analysis these teams both have strengths and weaknesses like any other teams in the playoffs but the gulf between the brain trusts in the dugouts couldn't be any wider. A decisive edge in Baltimore's favor. Did you see how Buck Showalter managed that game in his bull pen? Few managers are in his realm.

Well said buddy. Couldn't agree more. Tigers better keep their distance in this series, because they sure as hell won't win close games with this managerial matchup.

**tatddy** · 10-03-14, 01:08 PM

Laz Diaz today behind the plate. Guy is a baboon and a huge home ump.