Questions to all the experienced baseball handicappers

[jebe99]

What stats, angles, or situations do you use or look for when handicapping a baseball game?

Out of all sports, it's the most complex, and given me the most trouble over the years.

Would like to hear from you all and brainstorm on this.

[HoulihansTX]

Close your eyes, grab a dart, throw it at the board, bet against the team it lands on. HAHAHA

[Sawyer]

Starting Pitchers are important but they're no longer %80 of the game. Focus on hitting stats and bullpens as well. A team with better-pitcher won't win all the time.

Run production in last 5 games is important. I like Ats411's Hot&Not section.

Some teams can't hit lefties. Focus on righty/lefty matchups.

Never bet on a cold team. Ride winning streaks. Wish I had ride Rockies during their incredible winning streak (they swept cards and brewers on the road, amazing!)

ERA is a very misleading stat. Focus on WHIP instead of ERA.

Don't bet on a cold Pitcher. Starting Pitchers have ups/downs as well. Check out Starting pitcher's last 3 game performance.

If a home team with a winning record lost first 2 game of the series, bet on home team to win 3rd game to avoid sweep. Home teams don't get swept often. Except Washington Nats of course, LoL!

Quit betting on baseball after September.

Quit betting on baseball during Interleague.

GL!

[element1286]

Defense is really undervalued in my experience.

Look at some of the advanced defensive metrics, like UZR (at Fangraphs.com). Bet against the bad defensive teams when they are playing the good defensive teams, sticking to dogs and small favorites. It has been pretty profitable this season.

Unless you are making a model I suggest you stay away from looking at lineups and starting pitchers, and bet on good defensive teams vs bad defensive teams.

[jebe99]

Thanks for the inputs guys.

I agree that ERA is overrated and Defense indeed is underrated in MLB.

Will check out those stat sites you guys mentioned.