On3’s MLB 2021 Opening Day System

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  • sunshine11
    SBR MVP
    • 04-13-14
    • 2634

    #106
    JM disciple you have a gambling problem. Start your own system.
    Comment
    • J.M. Disciple
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-16-10
      • 5125

      #107
      Originally posted by sunshine11
      JM disciple you have a gambling problem. Start your own system.
      Thanks for the contribution to the thread very helpful! Thing is for people who can read, you can see I am not trying to change the system! Just the money management of it, for less risk of ruin.
      Comment
      • MexMamba
        SBR High Roller
        • 04-03-19
        • 115

        #108
        Was a SD loss yesterday??
        Comment
        • grecycle99
          SBR MVP
          • 12-18-09
          • 3612

          #109
          UPDATED for 05/01/2021

          System(s) record Chase :

          Regular system: 34-5; Profit: 14.75 units
          Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
          5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

          Total (3 systems) : 42-11; Profit: 77.94 unit (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

          Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

          Game 1 (A) win = 20-19; 6-4; 1-3
          Game 2 (B) win = 12-7; 1-3; 0-3
          Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

          Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

          (A)
          35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-71.40
          (B) 33.54-33.54-33.54-33.54-33.54
          (C) 27.14-
          27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14

          REGULAR FOR 05/01/2021

          (B) San Diego -172 to win 3.36U

          Filtered

          No Play

          5/2

          No Play
          Comment
          • grecycle99
            SBR MVP
            • 12-18-09
            • 3612

            #110
            Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
            I thought my post would get a response. The bet sizes seem very reasonable with busting bankroll, but the biggest swing is still going to be 50 units due to the bad stretch the system had. I think on average the bet size is smaller. Would just run one line for regular system and one line for filtered system. Let me know if you have any questions of how I managed it.
            Sorry my friend, just didn't had the time to look at your posts. Will look on monday. Thanks for your feedback
            Comment
            • grecycle99
              SBR MVP
              • 12-18-09
              • 3612

              #111
              Originally posted by MexMamba
              Was a SD loss yesterday??
              Yes, they were -192 so on RL Thanks
              Comment
              • grecycle99
                SBR MVP
                • 12-18-09
                • 3612

                #112
                UPDATED for 05/02/2021

                System(s) record Chase :

                Regular system: 36-5; Profit: 11.39 units
                Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
                5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

                Total (3 systems) : 44-11; Profit: 74.58 unit (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                Game 1 (A) win = 21-20; 6-4; 1-3
                Game 2 (B) win = 13-7; 1-3; 0-3
                Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                (A)
                35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-71.40
                (B) 33.54-33.54-33.54
                (C) 27.14-
                27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14

                REGULAR FOR 05/02/2021

                No Play

                Filtered

                No Play

                5/2

                No Play
                Comment
                • grecycle99
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-18-09
                  • 3612

                  #113
                  UPDATED for 05/03/2021

                  System(s) record Chase :

                  Regular system: 36-5; Profit: 11.39 units
                  Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
                  5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

                  Total (3 systems) : 44-11; Profit: 74.58 unit (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                  Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                  Game 1 (A) win = 21-20; 6-4; 1-3
                  Game 2 (B) win = 13-7; 1-3; 0-3
                  Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                  Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                  (A)
                  35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66-35.66
                  (B) 34.09-
                  34.09-34.09-34.09
                  (C) 27.14-
                  27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14-27.14

                  REGULAR FOR 05/03/2021

                  (A) Minnesota -174 to win 3.57U
                  (A) San Diego -178 to win 3.57U

                  Filtered

                  No Play

                  5/2

                  No Play
                  Comment
                  • J.M. Disciple
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 11-16-10
                    • 5125

                    #114
                    A 392.26 35.66 x 11
                    B 136.36 34.09 x 4
                    C 298.54 27.14 x 11

                    Labby has $827.16 or 41.36 units on the lines to make up over 26 #s.
                    Why not avg out the lines?

                    A) 31.81 x 8
                    B) 31.81 x 9
                    C) 31.81 x 9

                    System will eventually prevail given enough units as a bankroll and a small heater. Some times a really bad month just need one good week to come out ahead.

                    admire the dedication to keep posting on a bad run. I think the previous years definitely help with the experience of handling the swings.
                    Comment
                    • grecycle99
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-18-09
                      • 3612

                      #115
                      Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                      A 392.26 35.66 x 11
                      B 136.36 34.09 x 4
                      C 298.54 27.14 x 11
                      Labby has $827.16 or 41.36 units on the lines to make up over 26 #s.
                      Why not avg out the lines?

                      A) 31.81 x 8
                      B) 31.81 x 9
                      C) 31.81 x 9

                      System will eventually prevail given enough units as a bankroll and a small heater. Some times a really bad month just need one good week to come out ahead.

                      admire the dedication to keep posting on a bad run. I think the previous years definitely help with the experience of handling the swings.
                      That looks good, will do this. Thanks
                      Comment
                      • grecycle99
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-18-09
                        • 3612

                        #116
                        UPDATED for 05/04/2021

                        System(s) record Chase :

                        Regular system: 38-5; Profit: 4.25 units
                        Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
                        5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

                        Total (3 systems) : 46-11; Profit: 67.44 unit (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                        Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                        Game 1 (A) win = 23-20; 6-4; 1-3
                        Game 2 (B) win = 13-7; 1-3; 0-3
                        Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                        Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                        (A)
                        31.12 X 7
                        (B) 31.12 X 4

                        (C) 31.12 X 11

                        REGULAR FOR 05/04/2021

                        (A) Boston -178 to win 3.12U

                        Filtered

                        No Play

                        5/2

                        No Play
                        Comment
                        • mcmister
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 07-12-08
                          • 236

                          #117
                          Likes new format! Thanks!!!
                          Comment
                          • grecycle99
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-18-09
                            • 3612

                            #118
                            UPDATED for 05/06/2021

                            System(s) record Chase :

                            Regular system: 39-5; Profit: 1.13 units
                            Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
                            5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

                            Total (3 systems) : 47-11; Profit: 64.32 unit (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                            Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                            Game 1 (A) win = 24-20; 6-4; 1-3
                            Game 2 (B) win = 13-7; 1-3; 0-3
                            Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                            Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                            (A)
                            31.12 X 5
                            (B) 31.12 X 4

                            (C) 31.12 X 11

                            REGULAR FOR 05/06/2021

                            No Play

                            Filtered

                            No Play

                            5/2

                            No Play
                            Comment
                            • grecycle99
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-18-09
                              • 3612

                              #119
                              Originally posted by mcmister
                              Likes new format! Thanks!!!
                              Thanks to JM Disciple
                              Comment
                              • grecycle99
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-18-09
                                • 3612

                                #120
                                UPDATED for 05/07/2021

                                System(s) record Chase :

                                Regular system: 39-5; Profit: 1.13 units
                                Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
                                5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

                                Total (3 systems) : 47-11; Profit: 64.32 unit (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                                Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                                Game 1 (A) win = 24-20; 6-4; 1-3
                                Game 2 (B) win = 13-7; 1-3; 0-3
                                Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                                Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                                (A)
                                31.12 X 5
                                (B) 31.12 X 4

                                (C) 31.12 X 11

                                REGULAR FOR 05/07/2021

                                (A) Atlanta -147 to win 3.12U

                                (A) Chicago Cubs -145 to win 3.12U
                                (A) NY Yankees -168 to win 3.12U
                                (A) St Louis RL -102 to win 3.12U

                                watching CLE, HOU and MIA, if they go over -145, they become a play wo tin 3.12U

                                Filtered

                                watching HOU, if they go over -145, they become a play wo tin 3.12U

                                5/2

                                No Play
                                Last edited by grecycle99; 05-07-21, 01:22 PM.
                                Comment
                                • J.M. Disciple
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 11-16-10
                                  • 5125

                                  #121
                                  I think regular system is in the black now. Idk if ATL qualified yesterday. What link are using to check pin's closing lines? 2-1 if ATL didn't qualify?
                                  Comment
                                  • grecycle99
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-18-09
                                    • 3612

                                    #122
                                    Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                    I think regular system is in the black now. Idk if ATL qualified yesterday. What link are using to check pin's closing lines? 2-1 if ATL didn't qualify?
                                    Atlanta didn't qualify, closed at -140! I use Pinnacle to determine the lines!
                                    Comment
                                    • grecycle99
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-18-09
                                      • 3612

                                      #123
                                      UPDATED for 05/08/2021

                                      System(s) record Chase :

                                      Regular system: 39-5; Profit: 1.13 units
                                      Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
                                      5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

                                      Total (3 systems) : 47-11; Profit: 64.32 unit (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                                      Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                                      Game 1 (A) win = 24-20; 6-4; 1-3
                                      Game 2 (B) win = 13-7; 1-3; 0-3
                                      Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                                      Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                                      35.43 X 17
                                      REGULAR FOR 05/08/2021

                                      (B) NY Yankees -113 to win 3.55U

                                      Filtered

                                      No Play

                                      5/2

                                      No Play
                                      Comment
                                      • J.M. Disciple
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 11-16-10
                                        • 5125

                                        #124
                                        How come regular system stayed at 1.13 units? Thought the system would be in the black after a 2-1 day.
                                        Comment
                                        • grecycle99
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-18-09
                                          • 3612

                                          #125
                                          Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                          How come regular system stayed at 1.13 units? Thought the system would be in the black after a 2-1 day.
                                          It's just that the unit wasn't updated. But wasn't in the black either, was -1.13 + 3.12 + 3.12 - 5.24 (1.68*3.12) = -0.13U
                                          Comment
                                          • grecycle99
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-18-09
                                            • 3612

                                            #126
                                            UPDATED for 05/09/2021

                                            System(s) record Chase :

                                            Regular system: 42-5; Profit: 3.42 units
                                            Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
                                            5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

                                            Total (3 systems) : 50-11; Profit: 59.77 units (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                                            Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                                            Game 1 (A) win = 24-20; 6-4; 1-3
                                            Game 2 (B) win = 13-7; 1-3; 0-3
                                            Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                                            Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                                            35.43 X 15

                                            REGULAR FOR 05/09/2021

                                            No Play

                                            Filtered

                                            No Play

                                            5/2

                                            No Play
                                            Comment
                                            • grecycle99
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-18-09
                                              • 3612

                                              #127
                                              UPDATED for 05/10/2021

                                              System(s) record Chase :

                                              Regular system: 42-5; Profit: 3.42 units
                                              Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
                                              5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

                                              Total (3 systems) : 50-11; Profit: 59.77 units (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                                              Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                                              Game 1 (A) win = 24-20; 6-4; 1-3
                                              Game 2 (B) win = 13-7; 1-3; 0-3
                                              Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                                              Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                                              35.43 X 15

                                              REGULAR FOR 05/10/2021

                                              G1 - Houston -158 to win 3.55U

                                              Filtered

                                              G1 - Houston -158 to win 3.55U

                                              5/2

                                              No Play
                                              Comment
                                              • grecycle99
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-18-09
                                                • 3612

                                                #128
                                                UPDATED for 05/11/2021

                                                System(s) record Chase :

                                                Regular system: 42-5; Profit: 3.42 units
                                                Filtered System: 7-3; Profit: 6.98 units
                                                5/2 chase: 1-3; profit: 56.21 units

                                                Total (3 systems) : 50-11; Profit: 59.77 units (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                                                Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                                                Game 1 (A) win = 24-20; 6-4; 1-3
                                                Game 2 (B) win = 13-7; 1-3; 0-3
                                                Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                                                Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                                                45.97 X 17

                                                REGULAR FOR 05/11/2021

                                                G2 - Houston -153 to win 4.6U

                                                Filtered

                                                G2 - Houston -153 to win 4.6U

                                                5/2

                                                G1 - Houston -153 to win 5U
                                                Comment
                                                • J.M. Disciple
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 11-16-10
                                                  • 5125

                                                  #129
                                                  Not sure I would do 45 x 17. Line will get very big unless you hit a hot streak and win 8-9 games in a row. The bet size will never get smaller unless you clear entire line. Also when you go 4-0 and clear 8#s. The next day if you go 0-3 becomes almost a martingale.

                                                  What I would do is bucket part of the line to recover later. Similar to how you add 3 lines before. Would keep them at 3 lines or even 4 lines and just try and clear part of the line at a time.

                                                  Lets say you do two lines. Work on clearing the 45 x 4 first so on a bad run then a sweep line gets cleared, then you have a sense of accomplishment when you go back to a smaller size.
                                                  A) 45 x4
                                                  B) 45 x 13

                                                  For example if bets are to win 90 and you go 0-2 as example use -150 juice

                                                  A) 45 -45 -45 -45 - 135 - 135
                                                  B) 45 x 13

                                                  New lines:
                                                  A) 75 x 6
                                                  B) 45 x 13

                                                  Now next day go 3-0 and clear line A. Bring another 4#s up from line B or however many games you have. If you have one game bring 2#s up, 3 games bring 6 #s up etc. Where your bet size before was 150, now your back to 90.

                                                  The way this is going with one line, even on a winning day you will have increased bet size the next day if it's not a sweep. Leads to wrecking the boat. For example if you go 3-1 on your current 45 x 17 line with all games -150. What is the bet size the next day? (52.5 x 12). Don't think bets should increase on a winning day. Trying to help you not back yourself into a corner.

                                                  Best of luck
                                                  Comment
                                                  • grecycle99
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-18-09
                                                    • 3612

                                                    #130
                                                    Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                                    Not sure I would do 45 x 17. Line will get very big unless you hit a hot streak and win 8-9 games in a row. The bet size will never get smaller unless you clear entire line. Also when you go 4-0 and clear 8#s. The next day if you go 0-3 becomes almost a martingale.

                                                    What I would do is bucket part of the line to recover later. Similar to how you add 3 lines before. Would keep them at 3 lines or even 4 lines and just try and clear part of the line at a time.

                                                    Lets say you do two lines. Work on clearing the 45 x 4 first so on a bad run then a sweep line gets cleared, then you have a sense of accomplishment when you go back to a smaller size.
                                                    A) 45 x4
                                                    B) 45 x 13

                                                    For example if bets are to win 90 and you go 0-2 as example use -150 juice

                                                    A) 45 -45 -45 -45 - 135 - 135
                                                    B) 45 x 13

                                                    New lines:
                                                    A) 75 x 6
                                                    B) 45 x 13

                                                    Now next day go 3-0 and clear line A. Bring another 4#s up from line B or however many games you have. If you have one game bring 2#s up, 3 games bring 6 #s up etc. Where your bet size before was 150, now your back to 90.

                                                    The way this is going with one line, even on a winning day you will have increased bet size the next day if it's not a sweep. Leads to wrecking the boat. For example if you go 3-1 on your current 45 x 17 line with all games -150. What is the bet size the next day? (52.5 x 12). Don't think bets should increase on a winning day. Trying to help you not back yourself into a corner.

                                                    Best of luck
                                                    Thanks will try that. I was wondering how to handle this thing.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • grecycle99
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-18-09
                                                      • 3612

                                                      #131
                                                      UPDATED for 05/12/2021

                                                      System(s) record Chase :

                                                      Regular system: 43-5; Profit: 1.77 units
                                                      Filtered System: 8-3; Profit: 8.63 units
                                                      5/2 chase: 2-3; profit: 51.21 units

                                                      Total (3 systems) : 53-11; Profit: 58.07 units (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                                                      Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                                                      Game 1 (A) win = 26-22; 6-5; 2-3
                                                      Game 2 (B) win = 15-7; 2-3; 0-3
                                                      Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                                                      Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                                                      45.97 X 13

                                                      REGULAR FOR 05/12/2021

                                                      No Play

                                                      Filtered

                                                      No Play

                                                      5/2

                                                      No Play
                                                      Comment
                                                      • J.M. Disciple
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 11-16-10
                                                        • 5125

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by grecycle99
                                                        Thanks will try that. I was wondering how to handle this thing.
                                                        The other way of going about this is running 30 labby lines, one for each team. Can start with $10-$10 each time and when their chase series comes up, just manage the labby as you have always done. This is something I want to test for betting every game and every team. Dogs take +1.5 RL and favorites take ML. but do one line for each team and I think I would do probably a 10 unit max bet as a "stop loss" for the labby line before resetting it. More likely just move #s around though. For back testing reasons I think the 10 unit max bet makes a lot of sense though.

                                                        Don't want to get too off topic from system your running in the thread, but let me know your thoughts on this. If you check +1.5 RL historically hitting like 55-66% based on some data I saw. Where the -1.5 RL actually lose more money if you were to flat bet compared to betting ML flat betting. So I know for sure ML for favorites and RL for dogs are the best bets, just need to test a 30 line labby with it.

                                                        I did test this for other sports like NBA and NFL where I bet either all favorites or all dogs, since it's roughly 50/50 on the spread long run. Usually have 1-2 good seasons and then a very brutal season that is just not possible to win at. I think getting that 55%+ win rate for ML / RL is the key to a successful sports labby long term though. When I finish testing it, I'll share my results. Best site to back test odds on? I usually use covers . com for nba / nfl testing but not sure how good it is for MLB. On3's system was back tested on scoresandodds . com right?

                                                        Thanks for any feed back.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • grecycle99
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-18-09
                                                          • 3612

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                                          The other way of going about this is running 30 labby lines, one for each team. Can start with $10-$10 each time and when their chase series comes up, just manage the labby as you have always done. This is something I want to test for betting every game and every team. Dogs take +1.5 RL and favorites take ML. but do one line for each team and I think I would do probably a 10 unit max bet as a "stop loss" for the labby line before resetting it. More likely just move #s around though. For back testing reasons I think the 10 unit max bet makes a lot of sense though.

                                                          Don't want to get too off topic from system your running in the thread, but let me know your thoughts on this. If you check +1.5 RL historically hitting like 55-66% based on some data I saw. Where the -1.5 RL actually lose more money if you were to flat bet compared to betting ML flat betting. So I know for sure ML for favorites and RL for dogs are the best bets, just need to test a 30 line labby with it.

                                                          I did test this for other sports like NBA and NFL where I bet either all favorites or all dogs, since it's roughly 50/50 on the spread long run. Usually have 1-2 good seasons and then a very brutal season that is just not possible to win at. I think getting that 55%+ win rate for ML / RL is the key to a successful sports labby long term though. When I finish testing it, I'll share my results. Best site to back test odds on? I usually use covers . com for nba / nfl testing but not sure how good it is for MLB. On3's system was back tested on scoresandodds . com right?

                                                          Thanks for any feed back.
                                                          On this system, a 30 labby wouldn't work because some of the teams would not be able to be a -145 home fav all season but if you play only fav or dogs would work well. But as you say, a bad season would kill the system but it's the way in all systems. For all the other systems that I posts, I use ML on fav and RL on dogs and it works really well. I'm interested in seeing your backtesting results on this.

                                                          I like better pinnacle than scoresandodds for backtesting. I don't know where on3 backtested his system.

                                                          Thanks
                                                          Comment
                                                          • grecycle99
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-18-09
                                                            • 3612

                                                            #134
                                                            UPDATED for 05/13/2021

                                                            System(s) record Chase :

                                                            Regular system: 43-5; Profit: 1.77 units
                                                            Filtered System: 8-3; Profit: 8.63 units
                                                            5/2 chase: 2-3; profit: 51.21 units

                                                            Total (3 systems) : 53-11; Profit: 58.07 units (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                                                            Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                                                            Game 1 (A) win = 26-22; 6-5; 2-3
                                                            Game 2 (B) win = 15-7; 2-3; 0-3
                                                            Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                                                            Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                                                            L1 - 45.97 X 4
                                                            L2 - 45.97 X 9

                                                            REGULAR FOR 05/12/2021

                                                            G1 - Houston RL -101 to win 4.6U

                                                            Filtered

                                                            G1 - Houston RL -101 to win 4.6U

                                                            5/2

                                                            No Play
                                                            Comment
                                                            • J.M. Disciple
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 11-16-10
                                                              • 5125

                                                              #135
                                                              First two teams I tested using scoresandodds were LAD and CIN. Using a 10 unit max bet (to win) so upwards of 20+ units at risk on some of the heavy juice plays (-235) both teams showed a loss this year for a pretty staggering amount. Cinci had a bad stretch of just 8 wins and 12 losses (40%) and still managed to reach max bet with traditional labby method. I am not sure if any single line labby would win long run other wise we could use it in Roulette or other table games with even odds that hit 48%.

                                                              I'm still shocked how this system system showed so much profit last 3 seasons or so. I've been through all the seasons looking for tips to improve my own methods. One hell of a job managing those labby lines!

                                                              I will say something I pointed out in this thread earlier, where I questioned

                                                              "why do you add 10-10-10-10 to the already heavy line of 35-35-35-35 whenever you have 4 games."
                                                              It's not an exact quote but I'm sure you remember me questioning it. I will admit I was wrong on this and it actually is best to add $ to the line as a "place holder" rather than just keep splitting the line. What happens is if you split $35 x 4 into $17.50 x 8 you need a full sweep of 4-0 to clear the line. Sounds obvious but when you split the line so many times to reduce the wager amount what ends up happening is you never reach peak profit unless you get a sweep. By adding those extra 2 units to the line (10 x 4) I think eventually you can reach peak profit without fully clearing the line. I don't want to get too in-depth into because it would take a lot to write out. I just wanted to chime in and say my previous question was incorrect and you were doing it right even though wagers got pretty big.

                                                              Currently going to start with April 1st and test all +1.5 RL games, so bet every game RL with the labby and manage it over one line how you were doing previously. Going to test it using $10 unit size though. Whenever I reach peak profit will reset the line. I suggest you do something similar to this. It might not maximize your profits and recover 100% of your losses, but it will help with wagers from getting too big. Even if I go 7-4 with the high juice and make small profit, I will start fresh line the next day.

                                                              Will keep you updated on the progress.

                                                              Do you mind sharing the links to the other systems you run? Chase110 and Wallco's gold are the two or do you have others?


                                                              Thank you
                                                              AB
                                                              Comment
                                                              • J.M. Disciple
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 11-16-10
                                                                • 5125

                                                                #136
                                                                I only tested April 1st - 20th so far as there is a lot of data to go through for 248 games. I used single line labby with cross two for each win and add one for each loss to the line. Because I am betting every game some of the lines look like $5 x 30, so when you win 10 games and lose 5 there are only 15 numbers left on the line ( $$ x 15) then the next day say there are 10 games on the schedule, well, I am 5 numbers short, so I add $25 to the line to make it ($$ x 20) [5 for each # added to the line]. Very similar to how you are running this system but I am just using one line and resetting the line if I'm at peak profit. First 2 weeks or so was very shaky before a couple of good days to bounce the system back on track. Will link a screen shot to what the graph looks like currently so you can see the variance.

                                                                Biggest bet was $143.91 to win $73.80 (-195).
                                                                Record: 150 - 98. (60.4%)
                                                                Profit: 41.7 units ($417)

                                                                so does look promising long run, but I think any of these systems need a strong stomach for variance when dealing with the labby. Only testing underdogs at the moment. I'm sure favorites would work in a similar fashion. Would be curious to see what percentage favorites win at compared to +1.5 RL percentage being around 60% this season.

                                                                Done testing for the night. Just wanted to share that little bit. Before I dive into these deep waters with actual money.

                                                                https://gyazo.com/ff6b6aaa4e0441135e6758966c9f5df7

                                                                edit: Finished testing this season for all games +1.5 RL. Just took a small bad run at the end with high juice to destroy the system.

                                                                wish you all the best. Hard to get out of this hole without having some massive bets down the road. Going to jump ship for now and just lurk until I discover something new.

                                                                https://gyazo.com/7845b4d20bf0b3f43d57eb1be982db33
                                                                Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 05-14-21, 02:37 AM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • grecycle99
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 12-18-09
                                                                  • 3612

                                                                  #137
                                                                  UPDATED for 05/14/2021

                                                                  System(s) record Chase :

                                                                  Regular system: 43-5; Profit: 1.77 units
                                                                  Filtered System: 8-3; Profit: 8.63 units
                                                                  5/2 chase: 2-3; profit: 51.21 units

                                                                  Total (3 systems) : 53-11; Profit: 58.07 units (Series chase lost : REGULAR Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, Tampa Bay -6.73U, NY Yankees -8.19U, San Diego -13.82U, FILTERED Boston -5.04U, Houston -5.81U, NY Yankees -8.19U, 5/2 Boston -25.22U, Houston -22.21U, NY Yankees -18.04U)

                                                                  Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                                                                  Game 1 (A) win = 26-22; 6-5; 2-3
                                                                  Game 2 (B) win = 15-7; 2-3; 0-3
                                                                  Game 3 (C) win = 2-5; 0-3

                                                                  Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

                                                                  L1 - 61.62 X 6
                                                                  L2 - 45.97 X 9

                                                                  REGULAR FOR 05/14/2021

                                                                  G1 - White Sox -181 to win 4.6U
                                                                  G1 - LA Dodgers RL -104 to win 4.6U
                                                                  G1 - San Diego -175 to win 4.6U
                                                                  G1 - Tampa Bay -151 to win 4.6U
                                                                  G2 - Houston RL -114 to win 6.17U

                                                                  Filtered

                                                                  G2 - Houston RL -114 to win 6.17U

                                                                  5/2

                                                                  G1 - Houston RL -114 to win 5U
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • J.M. Disciple
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 11-16-10
                                                                    • 5125

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Well done
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • mcmister
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 07-12-08
                                                                      • 236

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Well done indeed!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • grecycle99
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 12-18-09
                                                                        • 3612

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                                                        First two teams I tested using scoresandodds were LAD and CIN. Using a 10 unit max bet (to win) so upwards of 20+ units at risk on some of the heavy juice plays (-235) both teams showed a loss this year for a pretty staggering amount. Cinci had a bad stretch of just 8 wins and 12 losses (40%) and still managed to reach max bet with traditional labby method. I am not sure if any single line labby would win long run other wise we could use it in Roulette or other table games with even odds that hit 48%.

                                                                        I'm still shocked how this system system showed so much profit last 3 seasons or so. I've been through all the seasons looking for tips to improve my own methods. One hell of a job managing those labby lines!

                                                                        I will say something I pointed out in this thread earlier, where I questioned



                                                                        It's not an exact quote but I'm sure you remember me questioning it. I will admit I was wrong on this and it actually is best to add $ to the line as a "place holder" rather than just keep splitting the line. What happens is if you split $35 x 4 into $17.50 x 8 you need a full sweep of 4-0 to clear the line. Sounds obvious but when you split the line so many times to reduce the wager amount what ends up happening is you never reach peak profit unless you get a sweep. By adding those extra 2 units to the line (10 x 4) I think eventually you can reach peak profit without fully clearing the line. I don't want to get too in-depth into because it would take a lot to write out. I just wanted to chime in and say my previous question was incorrect and you were doing it right even though wagers got pretty big.

                                                                        Currently going to start with April 1st and test all +1.5 RL games, so bet every game RL with the labby and manage it over one line how you were doing previously. Going to test it using $10 unit size though. Whenever I reach peak profit will reset the line. I suggest you do something similar to this. It might not maximize your profits and recover 100% of your losses, but it will help with wagers from getting too big. Even if I go 7-4 with the high juice and make small profit, I will start fresh line the next day.

                                                                        Will keep you updated on the progress.

                                                                        Do you mind sharing the links to the other systems you run? Chase110 and Wallco's gold are the two or do you have others?


                                                                        Thank you
                                                                        AB
                                                                        Here's the link for Cisco systems that I post




                                                                        I don't run the chase110 and wallcos, but the JM plays for hockey, baseball, football and basketball







                                                                        NBA betting and handicapping forum: discuss basketball picks, NBA odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results.




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