On3's MLB 2024 Opening Day System

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/25/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 106-4; Profit: 67.78 units
Filtered System: 23-0; Profit: 39.10 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 136-4; Profit: 135.88 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 71-39; 16-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 27-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 1 * 14.23
(B) 2 * 14.23
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/25/2024

(B) San Diego +105 to win 1.43U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[J.M. Disciple]

Less than a unit left on the line. Just reset the line or do you add $10 (10 - 14.23) ?

[J.M. Disciple]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3695701-on3s-mlb-2022-opening-day-system-p8.html

I think we have to go back and test 2022 using a different method because that year go so out of hand! Was close to -600 units at one point. So I think this labby method needs to be more hybrid with some type of stop loss. Maybe 10-20 unit downswing the lines need to be reset. Other wise there is no way to scale this system and no bankroll can support this type of chase when a hurricane hits.

Maybe over the next month I'll spend some time on 2022 and share my results. Going to implement my method with a 20 unit stop loss where the lines get reset. There are multiple days in September of 2022 where there is close to 400 units at risk on A-wagers!

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/26/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 1 * 14.23
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/26/2024

No Play

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/27/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 4 * 11.06
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/27/2024

(A) Baltimore -185 to win 1.11U
(A) Philadelphia RL -126 to win 1.11U

Watch STL -138

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[J.M. Disciple]

Phi B
Bos A
TB A
Arz A
ATL A

Some action for Friday if lines hold.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/27/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 14 * 11.26
(B) 2 * 11.26
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/27/2024

(A) Arizona -166 to win 1.13U
(A) Atlanta -189 to win 1.13U
(A) Boston -151 to win 1.13U
(A) Tampa Bay -161 to win 1.13U
(B) Philadelphia RL -106 to win 1.13U

Filtered

(A) Arizona -166 to win 1.13U
(A) Atlanta -189 to win 1.13U
(A) Boston -151 to win 1.13U
5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/28/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 4 * 19.45
(B) 8 * 19.45
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/28/2024

(B) Arizona RL +108 to win 1.95U
(B) Boston -133 to win 1.95U

Filtered

(B) Arizona RL +108 to win 1.95U
(B) Boston -133 to win 1.95U

5/2

(A) Arizona RL +108 to win 5U
(A) Boston -133 to win 5U

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/30/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 110-4; Profit: 71.35 units
Filtered System: 24-0; Profit: 40.17 units
5/2 chase: 7-0; profit: 29 units

Total (3 systems) : 141-4; Profit: 140.52 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 74-40; 17-7; 5-2
Game 2 (B) win = 28-12; 5-2; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 8-4; 2-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 4 * 25.94
(B) 2 * 25.94
(C) 4 * 25.94

REGULAR FOR 06/30/2024

(C) Boston -105 to win 2.6U

Filtered

(C) Boston -105 to win 2.6U

5/2

(B) Boston -105 to win 8.65

[atthehalf]

Now I have something to watch for. I have Waldron ranked at #11 and Winckowski dead last today at #30. I don't have anything on this game to be sure based on Wincko's 64% use rate and his 6 at bats vs the Fathers and Waldron's 2 at bats vs the Red Sox. Not enough data for me to get involved as a fantasy stats bettor.

Traditional line and side bettors are factoring in also that the Red Sox shouldn't get swept off of their home field. Should be good. I am most definitely rooting for this to work considering how much consideration is on this play.

Get their bread grecycle99! Blast away babe!

[atthehalf]

Oh my goodness! What a good chase move! Good stuff grecycle99! I love seeing guys stick it to the books like that!

[J.M. Disciple]

Is there a sweep system posted some where? Someone told me about some sweep system going 5-0 yesterday, but we only had Boston.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 07/02/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 116-4; Profit: 72.81 units
Filtered System: 27-0; Profit: 43.19 units
5/2 chase: 9-0; profit: 36 units

Total (3 systems) : 152-4; Profit: 148.47 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 77-43; 18-9; 6-3
Game 2 (B) win = 30-13; 6-3; 3-0
Game 3 (C) win = 9-4; 3-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 12 * 17.97
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 07/02/2024

(A) Atlanta -182 to win 1.8U
(A) Cleveland RL -100 to win 1.8U
(A) LA Dodgers -185 to win 1.8U
(A) NY Yankees RL +103 to win 1.8U

Filtered

(A) Cleveland RL -100 to win 1.8U
(A) LA Dodgers -185 to win 1.8U
5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

Is there a sweep system posted some where? Someone told me about some sweep system going 5-0 yesterday, but we only had Boston.

I don't know what sweep system is that. The only one I know is the JM one and its 14-1 on the season now. Could it be like a system where the opposite team had one the 2 first games of the serie and you play a team to not been swept?

[Sund]

Looks like Braves moved up to runline ?

[Sund]

Atlanta Braves -195

[J.M. Disciple]

I don't know what sweep system is that. The only one I know is the JM one and its 14-1 on the season now. Could it be like a system where the opposite team had one the 2 first games of the serie and you play a team to not been swept?

Yes. Play the last game of a series for a team not to be swept.

[RErunSHORTcut]

Atlanta Braves -195

braves didn't cash, i had them too, couldn't fade after he posted it haha

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 07/03/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 116-4; Profit: 72.81 units
Filtered System: 27-0; Profit: 43.19 units
5/2 chase: 9-0; profit: 36 units

Total (3 systems) : 152-4; Profit: 148.47 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 77-43; 18-9; 6-3
Game 2 (B) win = 30-13; 6-3; 3-0
Game 3 (C) win = 9-4; 3-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 4 * 26.59
(B) 8 * 26.59
(C)

REGULAR FOR 07/03/2024

(B) Atlanta RL +109 to win 2.668U
(B) Cleveland RL +103 to win 2.66U
(B) NY Yankees -175 to win 2.66U

Filtered

(B) Cleveland RL +103 to win 2.66U

5/2

(A) Cleveland RL +103 to win 5U

[MexMamba]

Dodgers closed 195

[grecycle99]

Dodgers closed 195

they won on the 2nd at -179 by a run! they were not a play on the 3rd

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 07/04/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 116-4; Profit: 72.81 units
Filtered System: 27-0; Profit: 43.19 units
5/2 chase: 9-0; profit: 36 units

Total (3 systems) : 152-4; Profit: 148.47 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 77-43; 18-9; 6-3
Game 2 (B) win = 30-13; 6-3; 3-0
Game 3 (C) win = 9-4; 3-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 4 * 35.8
(B) 3 * 35.8
(C) 6 * 35.8

REGULAR FOR 07/04/2024

(C) Cleveland RL -107 to win 3.58
(C) NY Yankees -170 to win 3.58U

Filtered

(C) Cleveland RL -107 to win 3.58U

5/2

(B) Cleveland RL -107 to win 7U

[J.M. Disciple]

Series Summary using pinnacle closing lines

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/odds/?date=20240704

July 2nd
CLE (-210 ML) play -1.5 RL (-108) score 7-6 lose
NYY (-206 ML) play -1.5 RL (-104) score 4 to 5 lose
ATL (-187 ML) score 3 to 5 lose
LAD (-179 ML) score 6 to 5 win

July 3rd
CLE (-210) -1.5 RL (+103) score 2 to 8 lose
NYY (-180) score 2 to 3 lose
ATL (-201) -1.5 RL (+105) score 3 to 1 win

July 4th
CLE (-214) -1.5 RL (-108) score 8 to 4 win
NYY (-170) score 4 to 8 lose

I messed up on the dodgers as I had them -1.5 1st game and kept chasing. Hopefully they win today as a non system play ;-)


If anyone is curious how I run my labby lines using 1 strike method. I used the above results and put them into excel with exact lines. I use a 1 strike method, but cap my line at 6#s, so it is not too hard to clear the line.

https://gyazo.com/b45c121e565de75d0ea9748afeb187c5

[J.M. Disciple]

https://gyazo.com/b255073909de383ad8c5ebcaf70f15d5

comparing the 1 strike method with a six (6) number cap compared to a 2 strike method. During this series if we started with a fresh labby line betting to win 1 unit on A-game wagers.

1 strike method loses -$122 (6.1 units)
2 strike method loses -$145 (7.25 units)

1 strike biggest bet $51.31 (2.56 units)
2 strike biggest bet $73.58 (3.67 units)

Comparing the labby lines
new line: 33.70 x 6 betting to win 1.68 units using 1 strike method
new line: 28.13 x 8 betting to win 2.81 units using 2 strike method

Each person can choose their own volatility path, but I wanted to shed some light on the current progressive betting method compared to a newer method I came up with. The downside is it might take 1-2 extra wins to clear a line but the upside is preventing risk of ruin as you can see the next set of series chases is 67% larger bet size. With less risk of ruin it will be easier to scale up in unit size as well.

Ok I won't flood the forum with any more of my opinions. Just wanted to try and help 1-2 people who read this and are more conservative in their approach.

[J.M. Disciple]

Lots of action tomorrow for the 5th depending on line movement. Cubs have an early game.
Chc (-185)
Nyy (-135)
Cle
Atl (-140)
Min (-155)
Sea (-142)
Lad

[atthehalf]

Not that I am meddling-God knows that isn't my intention at all-my question is are there ever any underdogs in play with this system? My max vigorous is and always has been-140 for a favorite so with that it's kind of hard for me to wrap my head around risking so much juice to get a win if it goes over one game for a chase. So say like a team is -185 for the first game and it loses; then in the next game of the chase they are an underdog. Would it be that I should take the underdog on the RL? Would that be considered a move? Don't get me wrong. This system looks to be very profitable and it has produced more units than I have with a traditional format of betting sides and so I kind of wish to know the inner workings of it. It seems like just taking strictly favorite runlines could be the trick to avoiding the high juice?

Fantasy is much more easier than traditional-if you know your arms and bats. I have tried experimenting with traditional this year instead of strict fantasy and it is trying to say the least.

[Sund]

I think the line has to be -145 & higher

[Sund]

Start of new series looks like Cubs ,guardians, twins & chargers !

[Sund]

Meant to say Dodgers not chargers

[atthehalf]

I think the line has to be -145 & higher

Ok got it! So the moves have to be on favorites only

[Sund]

Yes , favorites.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 07/05/2024

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 119-5; Profit: 60.47 units
Filtered System: 29-0; Profit: 40.58 units
5/2 chase: 10-0; profit: 38 units

Total (3 systems) : 158-5; Profit: 139.05 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston, NY Yankees)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 78-46; 19-10; 6-4
Game 2 (B) win = 31-15; 6-4; 4-0
Game 3 (C) win = 10-5; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 8 * 34.57
(B) 3 * 34.57
(C) 3 * 34.57

REGULAR FOR 07/05/2024

(A) Chicago Cubs -183 to win 3.46U
(A) Cleveland -168 to win 3.46U
(A) LA Dodgers -189 to win 3.46U

Watch MIN -142

Filtered

(A) Chicago Cubs -183 to win 3.46U
5/2

No Play

[Sund]

At pinnacle the line has moved to twins -145 & Dodgers -195 runline

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 07/0/2024

System(s) record Chase :6

Regular system: 119-5; Profit: 60.47 units
Filtered System: 29-0; Profit: 40.58 units
5/2 chase: 10-0; profit: 38 units

Total (3 systems) : 158-5; Profit: 139.05 units (Series chase lost : Detroit, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston, NY Yankees)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 78-46; 19-10; 6-4
Game 2 (B) win = 31-15; 6-4; 4-0
Game 3 (C) win = 10-5; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 3 * 43.65
(B) 3 * 43.65
(C) 3 * 43.65

REGULAR FOR 07/06/2024

(B) Cleveland -124 to win 4.37U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

At pinnacle the line has moved to twins -145 & Dodgers -195 runline

Dodgers are indeed a RL but MIN closed at -143 so not a play