With a 10-0 K's to walks ratio I will definitely be on top of Houck K's tomorrow as well. Stay tuned
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Comment -
Ok so now it's time to zero in on how the arms are against the weak poor and average offenses that they are facing today
Houck 12 K's 0 walks vs Twins over 42 at bats
Perez 10 K's 1 walk vs Rox over 40 at bats
Gray 33 K's 6 walks vs Pale Hose over 112 at bats
Nola 32 K's 7 walks vs Giants over 104 at bats
Bibbee 6 K's 0 walks vs Halos over 23 at bats
Kikuchi doesn't have enough history vs Nats bats to mention
The K's numbers haven't been offered yet. Of those I like Gray, and Nola so I will make my moves with them and then post those upComment -
Ok Corbin is allowing .388 average over 80 at bats vs Jays hitters. Yep. Sounds good to me I added on the Jays TT to go OVER 5.5 runs which is that high for a reason.
Anyway the big board is fully updated with the K's information and this move as well. And yes I deducted the concert ATM fees that maizey is wining and bitching aboutComment -
I have too much time on my hands today-I think that I may have found some GOLD boys.
The Red Leggins hit .375 vs Cole Irvin (Orioles). I also have the Red Leggins as a SOLID offense at home, their bullpen sucks a bit. This is tailor made for an addition to the big board. Only a whopping 14% of bettors are taking the Red Leggins on the RL and only 36% on the ML yet the line is staying the same and the Red Leggins are now a favorite....
Rot.#922 Red Leggins Team Total OVER 4.5 +102 2 UNITS
Rot.#922 Red Leggins-1.5 +175 RL GreeneComment -
Also the orioles are unfamiliar with Greene as he hasn't faced any of their batters. I like this thing!Comment -
For those interested, league wise I have Greene#14 and Irvin#26. This sets up beautifullyComment -
Mr. Half: I see the seven plays from 3:17 yesterday and the two on the Reds, plus that TT on Toronto that you gave us this morning. I am confused about your reference to the big board K's information. Appreciate the overall K/BB and general info that you posted, but wondering if you have actual picks on today's K's(betting, not fantasy). Thank you for the continuing great work and for sharing.Comment -
I've evolved as the season goes on. There will be less sides and more K chasing from here on out since I have an idea what teams have good and bad batsComment -
104-103-4 +40.67 UNITS
Rot.#906 Nola (Blunts) OVER 6.5 K's +106 vs POOR OFFENSE LOSS -1.0
Rot.#928 Gray (Cardinals) OVER 6 K'S +100 vs POOR OFFENSE PUSH
Rot.#923 Jays-1.5 RL Kikuchi#7 vs Corbin DNS+ WEAK OFFENSE -1.0
Rot.#923 Jays Team Total OVER 5.5 +106 vs CORBIN (.388 AVG OVER 80 AT BATS) -1.0
Rot.#919 Red Sox+110 Houck#8 vs Paddack DNS+ AVERAGE OFFENSE -1.0
Rot.#925 Metropolitans+118 Quintana#12 + AVERAGE OFFENSE vs Civale#10 + WEAK OFFENSE CRUMBS POD -1.0
Rot.#922 Red Leggins Team Total OVER 4.5 +102 2 UNITS-2.0
Rot.#922 Red Leggins-1.5 +175 RL Greene -1.0
0-7-1 -8.00 UNITS OUCH!
UPDATED RECORD
104-110-5 +32.67 UNITS
Comment -
104-110-5 +32.67 UNITS
My arms failed me miserably yesterday-but yesterday is gone and now time to move on. I am using Lopez#4 (Twins) and Glasnow#3 (Dodgers) for roster reasons only. Despite the bad record I actually have Rogers#12 over Blackburn#19 so the Fish it is. The Pale Hose hit .297 off of Lynn and a sterling .822 OPS. Side note. Grab Luis Arraez (Fish) NOW and put him on any and all platforms. He is rumored to be going to the Fathers-if so he will prosper with protection in the lineup from the Fathers bats. So today I am really zeroing in on two sides in particular with the Fish and Pale Hose because they have better pitching working for them and are underdogs with little to no support. No doubt that the books will be rooting for them
Rot.#954 Buccos-1.5 +105 Jones #1 vs Gomber#28+POOR OFFENSE 2 UNITS
Rot.#973 Jays-1.5 +100 RL Gausman#2 vs Irvin#26+ WEAK OFFENSE 2 UNITS
Rot.#977 Orioles/Red Leggins OVER 5 FF +105 Means#24 + TOP OFFENSE vs Abbott#27 +SOLID OFFENSE 1 UNIT
Rot.#971 Pale Hose+140 FF Fedde#9 vs Lynn#22+WEAK OFFENSE 1 UNIT
Rot.#971 Pale Hose Team Total OVER 3.5 +101 1 UNIT
Rot.#975 Fish+100 ML Rogers#12 vs Blackburn#19 BOTH POOR OFFENSES 1 UNIT
Rot.#975 Fish-1.5 +184 RRL (REVERSE RUNLINE) 1 UNIT
Rot.#979 Christian Scott (Metropolitans) OVER 5 K's +100 1 UNIT
Last edited by atthehalf; 05-04-24, 08:46 AM.Comment -
Oh I also grabbed Christian Scott (Metropolitans) for the roster today-taking a flyer on him as he makes his MLB debut. He is the top prospect in the organization and as a special treat I am going to see him in person today at the Trop after my son's baseball tournament.
Can't wait to get my hands on the foot long tater tot too!
Feel free to blast away on his K's as he struck out 36 in 25 1/3 innings with (get this) while walking only 1.2 per nine innings at AAA Syracuse. Couple that with the inept Rays offense and you've got something there. The line should be somewhere in the category of 4.5 K's and it should be + money as the line makers are unfamiliar with his tool kit
Comment -
I will try my best to come back and fill in the blanks on Scott's K's line. Gonna be a busy day here in Florida with the tournament in Plant City and then having to get all the way to St. Pete for the game this evening. I don't have to leave out the door until 10 so it may be available by thenComment -
Ok so Christian Scott is set at OVER 5 +100. Blast away boys. Blast awayComment -
Big board is all set. Enjoy your SaturdayComment -
Good Lord! It's burrito time out here! I was just looking at an amazing stat sheet for Tyler Glasnow, He has faced 53 at bats vs the Braves he has goddamn 20 K's and allowing a .151 average. That's filthy. So glad I have him rostered up!
Comment -
107-115-5 +29.36 UNITS
I am REALLY in a RUSH to get to Plant City for 9:00 AM baseball game...with a slight hangover...
I will tighten up everything when I get back but for now
Rot.#909 Giants-109 Webb#4 3 UNITS
Rot.#903 Brews-119 Peralta#1
Rot.#911 Tigers+110 Skubal#2
Rot.#925 Pale Hose+123 FF Crochet#6
Rot.#905 Braves-1.5 +120 RL Fried#7 3 UNITS
Rot.#920 Twins-1.5 +123 RL Ryan#3
Rot.#924 Rays-119 Pepiot#5
Last edited by atthehalf; 05-05-24, 07:43 AM.Comment -
104-110-5 +32.67 UNITS
Rot.#954 Buccos-1.5 +105 Jones #1 vs Gomber#28+POOR OFFENSE 2 UNITS LOSS -2.00 UNITS
Rot.#973 Jays-1.5 +100 RL Gausman#2 vs Irvin#26+ WEAK OFFENSE 2 UNITS WIN+2.00 UNITS
Rot.#977 Orioles/Red Leggins OVER 5 FF +105 Means#24 + TOP OFFENSE vs Abbott#27 +SOLID OFFENSE 1 UNIT -1.00
Rot.#971 Pale Hose+140 FF Fedde#9 vs Lynn#22+WEAK OFFENSE 1 UNIT LOSS -1.00 UNITS
Rot.#971 Pale Hose Team Total OVER 3.5 +101 1 UNIT WIN +1.01 UNITS
Rot.#975 Fish+100 ML Rogers#12 vs Blackburn#19 BOTH POOR OFFENSES 1 UNIT LOSS -1.00 UNITS
Rot.#975 Fish-1.5 +184 RRL (REVERSE RUNLINE) 1 UNIT LOSS -1.00 UNITS
Rot.#979 Christian Scott (Metropolitans) OVER 5 K's +100 1 UNIT WIN +1.00 UNITS
107-115-5 +29.36 UNITS
Comment -
Couple of tough ones in there and I had a double whammy of a league penalty for rolling with Peralta who I totally forgot wasn't on roster and should have been replaced with a bat! Skubal got me some K's as usual and I was paid handsomely for Crochet. Who i their right mind would take the Pale Hose and actually pick up a win LOL! Back at it again in a few after I look over my roster for today
Rot.#909 Giants-109 Webb#4 3 UNITS LOSS -3.0
Rot.#903 Brews-119 Peralta#1 LOSS -1.0
Rot.#911 Tigers+110 Skubal#2 LOSS -1.0
Rot.#925 Pale Hose+123 FF Crochet#6 PUSH
Rot.#905 Braves-1.5 +120 RL Fried#7 3 UNITS LOSS -3.0
Rot.#920 Twins-1.5 +123 RL Ryan#3 LOSS -1.0
Rot.#924 Rays-119 Pepiot#5 WIN +1.0
109-120-6 +22.53 UNITSLast edited by atthehalf; 05-06-24, 09:40 AM.Comment -
109-120-5 +22.35 UNITS
Ok so I am going to utilize Justine Steele#5 (Cubs) and Walker Buehler#4 (Dodgers) in fantasy platform only today. Alright -now let's get to the rest
Rot.#952 Zach Wheeler (Blunts) OVER 7.5 K's +100 vs POOR OFFENSE
Rot.#970 Royals-134 Ragans#2 vs Wilson#18+AVERAGE OFFENSE
Rot.#963 Sailors-123 Castillo#3 vs Simeon Woods-Richardson#16+AVERAGE OFFENSE
Rot.#965 Wanderers-1.5 +130 RL Heaney#6 vs Wood#17 +POOR OFFENSE
Rot.#967 Halos+135 Anderson#7 vs Keller#11+WEAK OFFENSE
Rot.#955 Metropolitans+108 Manaea#9 vs Gibson#13+WEAK OFFENSE
Rot.#953 Fathers+100 Darvish#10 2 UNITS
Rot.#953 Arraez (Fathers) OVER 1.5 BASES +117
Last edited by atthehalf; 05-06-24, 05:28 PM.Comment -
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Wait a minute- I have Yu Darvish#10 ranked ahead of Steele (DNS) and I totally missed it. I have Steele as a DNS following his rehab start where he gave up 3 runs and six hits over 3 1/3 innings. In 72 at bats Yu is holding the Cubs lineup to a .208 average...and he has a solid offense backing him as well
Rot.#953 Fathers+100 Darvish#10 2 UNITSComment -
Correct. I made the adjustmentComment -
114-123-5 +25.5 UNITS
I may be going through a bit of a rough patch-but I know that when the best arms are continually pounded the results will come. As I often say-we are all going to be around .500 at the end of the season betting sides and totals for this stuff each and every day.
Just gotta get fortunate enough to hit the decided advantage ones as hard as you can.
Relievers, errors, scorned umpires and coaching decisions will cost you wins. It's the nature of the beast.
Any whoooo....looking ahead to Tuesday I have a nice amount of my studs going.
Fantasy wise streamers-don't even think about these. If you have them on your rosters-start them. Any arm below a top 10 are probables-meaning that there's more risk than I'd like them to be. Either they are facing a tough matchup for a good-not elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. these pitchers have a slightly more than 50% chance of performing well in my view and I would pick and choose them in a majority of situations.
DNS means DO NOT START. The reward is not worth the risk. Seriously these pitchers have a very slim chance at success or sometimes none at all
Burnes (Aces gonna ace)
Imanaga (Aces gonna ace)
Yamamoto (Aces gonna ace)
Gallen (Aces gonna ace-he does have the toughest lineup to face-it won't matter-I will live with the results)
Bailey Ober is gonna give 1-3 ER across 5-7 innings and average about a K per inning against the Sailors
Zack Eflin should be able to take care of the pale Hose lineup-and the rays are at this point in a good position to make a move bat wise
Seth Lugo has been cooking lately-give him the start in any platform that you partake in
Reynaldo Lopez has been fantastic and a steal of a deal-hopefully the Braves bats wake up to go along with his skill set
Verlander is a ratio darling-and the Bombers aren't exactly getting the best timely hitting-I won't use him in this platform thoI must have been having a brain fart-of course you roll with Verlander vs Gil!
Jose Butto-I am taking a flyer on this one against a middling lineup. He may earn a spot on your roster just for some stability, but he's super boring-the type of guy that works in your office and don't speak to him like ever-you don't even want to acknowledge that he works for the same company that you do. he just gets the job done.
Okay so here are the positions that I had to get before sunup because of the real possibility of the juice getting out of my comfort zone. If you see a line then I already made a move on it
Rot.#925 Orioles-1.5 -125 RL Burnes#1 + TOP OFFENSE vs Williams (DEAD LAST DNS)+ WEAK OFFENSE 2 UNITS
Rot.#904 Cubs -1.5 +130 RL Imanaga#3+ SOLID OFFENSE vs UNDECIDED+ SOLID OFFENSE
Rot.#901 Snakes-121 Gallen#4 + SOLID OFFENSE VS Montas#22+SOLID OFFENSE
Rot.#920 Twins-1.5 +145 RL Ober#5 + AVERAGE OFFENSE vs Hancock#24 (DNS)+WEAK OFFENSE
Rot.#916 Rays-1.5 -112 RL Eflin#6+POOR OFFENSE vs Soroka#27 (DNS)+ POOR OFFENSE
Rot.#930 Royals-130 Lugo#7+SOLID OFFENSE vs Rea#21 (DNS)+AVERAGE OFFENSE
Rot.#905 Metropolitans+115 Butto#12+ AVERAGE OFFENSE vs Mikolas#25 (DNS)+WEAK OFFENSE
Rot.#928 Braves-1.5 +113 Lopez#8 vs Crawford#14 + WEAK OFFENSE
Rot.#907 Astronauts+102 Verlander#9 + TOP OFFENSE vs Gil#17+ TOP OFFENSE
Rot.#921 Halos+107 Sandoval#18 + WEAK OFFENSE vs Priester#23 +WEAK OFFENSE CRUMBS POD 2 UNITS
Last edited by atthehalf; 05-07-24, 06:20 AM.Comment -
Tomorrow's Rays-112 RL and Twins+145 RL are available on Draftkings for those who make moves onlineComment -
Arraez went 4-6 for me in his first game with the Fathers last night! Those who listened are already getting dividends. So while I am at it I am going with him in this platform too. He may vary well win a batting title with that type of protection in the Fathers lineup. Pitchers really have to pitch to him now instead of pitching around him
Rot.#953 Arraez OVER 1.5 BASES +117Comment -
Only waiting on the Cubs line for tomorrow. Randy Vazquez#29 DNS is on the bump for the Fathers. It won't end goodComment -
109-120-5 +22.35 UNITS
Rot.#952 Zach Wheeler (Blunts) OVER 7.5 K's +100 vs POOR OFFENSE WIN +1.0
Rot.#970 Royals-134 Ragans#2 vs Wilson#18+AVERAGE OFFENSE WIN +1.0
Rot.#963 Sailors-123 Castillo#3 vs Simeon Woods-Richardson#16+AVERAGE OFFENSE LOSS -1.23
Rot.#965 Wanderers-1.5 +130 RL Heaney#6 vs Wood#17 +POOR OFFENSE WIN +1.0
Rot.#967 Halos+135 Anderson#7 vs Keller#11+WEAK OFFENSE LOSS -1.0
Rot.#955 Metropolitans+108 Manaea#9 vs Gibson#13+WEAK OFFENSE WIN +1.0
Rot.#953 Fathers+100 Darvish#10 2 UNITS WIN +2.0
Rot.#953 Arraez (Fathers) OVER 1.5 BASES +117 LOSS -1.0
114-123-5 +25.5 UNITSComment -
Also I was just thinking-why in the hell would I not start Verlander vs ANY TEAM if I have him on my roster at #9 facing a #17 arm?Comment -
The Cubs were priced at -150 when I woke up this morning which is above what i would like to pay in vig so RL it is-even if I lose with a one run win by the Cubbies it's ok. It's along season. I have had plenty of losses like that already. No sweat. I am all about money management...Comment -
Any time that I see a higher ranked arm as an underdog in this format I blast away. He just had his best outing of the year and he gets a gift in the Buccos
Rot.#921 Halos+107 Sandoval#18 + WEAK OFFENSE vs Priester#23 +WEAK OFFENSE CRUMBS POD 2 UNITSComment -
119-128-5 +25.1 UNITS
I have actually already thrown down on a few tomorrow EARLY since I am going with the FAVORITES. Aces gonna ace
Rot.#971 Sailors-115 Kirby#1 + SOLID OFFENSE vs Paddack#21 +SOLID OFFENSE 2 UNITS
Rot.#953 Fathers-118 Cease#6 + SOLID OFFENSE vs Wesneski#27 (DNS)+ SOLID OFFENSE 5 UNITS
Rot.#975 Jays/Blunts UNDER 4.5 -110 FF Nola#2+SOLID OFFENSE vs Bassitt#12 + SOLID OFFENSE 1 UNIT
Rot.#982 Braves-1.5 +100 RL Sale#3 +TOP OFFENSE vs Pivetta#28 (DNS)+WEAK OFFENSE 2 UNITS
Rot.#979 Orioles-1.5 -106 RL Bradish#5+TOP OFFENSE vs Parker#26 (DNS)+WEAK OFFENSE 2 UNITS
Rot.#961 Tigers/Guardians UNDER 4.5 -130 FF Bibee#7 +SOLID OFFENSE vs Olson#10+ POOR OFFENSE 1 UNIT
Rot.#924 Buccos-125 Perez#9 +WEAK OFFENSE vs Soriano#15+WEAK OFFENSE 1 UNIT
Rot.#952 Cardinals-1.5 +130 RL Gray#4 + WEAK OFFENSE vs Quintana#23 (DNS)+AVERAGE OFFENSE 1 UNIT
Rot.#953 Luis Arraez OVER 1.5 BASES +100 vs Wesneski#27(DNS) 1 UNIT
Rot.#965 Wanderers-125 ML Leiter#16+ TOP OFFENSE vs Bido#32 (DNS DEAD LAST) +POOR OFFENSE (CONDITIONAL MOVE)
Last edited by atthehalf; 05-08-24, 04:15 PM.Comment -
I performed a temporary drop on (The Bear )Jordan Montgomery (Snakes) for tomorrow as Cin City is a explosive park. This isn't to say he won't go the 6 frames-just don't want to chance it. Good thing there's always Arraez to pluck. I already have Colton Cowser ready to go at a moment's notice vs a righty if need beComment -
Wow! Blown saves tonight on Royals and Twins! Egads! Relief pitching makes it nearly impossible to hit at a 60% clip in MLB LOL! Should have been 7-3 instead of 5-5
It's painful, but I love the pain obviously. The Cubs won-just not by 2 so it was a close shave. This platform is tough that way. Money management is the key, it's better to sacrifice a clean unit in a 1 run loss than to frequently lose a -160, -180 lines
I think to date this season I have had more than 5-6 instances where I had the RL and lost by one run. It's ok.
The ML in those games had to average more than -140 at least because my juice cut off is -135.
Anything over that I am taking the RL. The average margin of victory for a winning side in MLB is 0.3 runs; which is not even a run.
May as well go with the RL in that case because a loss is almost more likely than not; and that juice lost chasing wins will kill your pockets much faster than taking a chance on a 2 run win with + money odds.
On a brighter note fantasy wise my starters overall did swell and my roster was rockin today
Comment -
114-123-5 +25.5 UNITS
Rot.#925 Orioles-1.5 -125 RL Burnes#1 + TOP OFFENSE vs Williams (DEAD LAST DNS)+ WEAK OFFENSE 2 UNITS LOSS -2.5 UNITS
Rot.#904 Cubs -1.5 +130 RL Imanaga#3+ SOLID OFFENSE vs UNDECIDED+ SOLID OFFENSE LOSS -1.0 UNITS
Rot.#901 Snakes-121 Gallen#4 + SOLID OFFENSE VS Montas#22+SOLID OFFENSE WIN +1.0 UNITS
Rot.#920 Twins-1.5 +145 RL Ober#5 + AVERAGE OFFENSE vs Hancock#24 (DNS)+WEAK OFFENSE LOSS -1.0 UNITS
Rot.#916 Rays-1.5 -112 RL Eflin#6+POOR OFFENSE vs Soroka#27 (DNS)+ POOR OFFENSE WIN +1.0 UNITS
Rot.#930 Royals-130 Lugo#7+SOLID OFFENSE vs Rea#21 (DNS)+AVERAGE OFFENSE LOSS -1.3 UNITS
Rot.#905 Metropolitans+115 Butto#12+ AVERAGE OFFENSE vs Mikolas#25 (DNS)+WEAK OFFENSE WIN +1.15 UNITS
Rot.#928 Braves-1.5 +113 Lopez#8 vs Crawford#14 + WEAK OFFENSE WIN +1.13 UNITS
Rot.#907 Astronauts+102 Verlander#9 + TOP OFFENSE vs Gil#17+ TOP OFFENSE LOSS -1.0 UNITS
Rot.#921 Halos+107 Sandoval#18 + WEAK OFFENSE vs Priester#23 +WEAK OFFENSE CRUMBS POD 2 UNITS WIN +2.14 UNITS
119-128-5 +25.1 UNITSComment
