on3's MLB 2025 Opening Day System

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  • daneault23
    SBR MVP
    • 09-08-09
    • 3837

    #106
    FYI Atlanta's C bet is an early game with first pitch at 1215pm Eastern.
    Comment
    • grecycle99
      SBR MVP
      • 12-18-09
      • 3612

      #107
      UPDATED for 04/23/2025

      System(s) record Chase :

      Regular system: 30-0; Profit: 25.51 units
      Filtered System: 6-0; Profit: 3.9 units
      5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

      Total (3 systems) : 39-0; Profit: 44.41 unit (Series chase lost : )

      Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

      Game 1 (A) win = 23-8; 3-3; 3-0
      Game 2 (B) win = 5-3; 3-0; 0-0
      Game 3 (C) win = 3-0; 0-0

      Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
      (A) 3 * 20.29
      (B) 4 * 20.29
      (C) 2 * 20.29

      REGULAR FOR 04/23/2025


      (B) Kansas City -185 to win 2.03U
      (B) LA Angels -127 to win 2.03U
      (C) Atlanta -150 to win 2.03U


      Filtered

      No Play

      5/2

      No Play
      Comment
      • daneault23
        SBR MVP
        • 09-08-09
        • 3837

        #108
        Braves came through again in the 8th inning with a 3 run homer to win the C bet. Royals game postponed for a DH tomorrow so I guess we'll have to watch the 1st game closely. Angels suck again and go for a C bet win tomorrow
        Comment
        • skyscrapers
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 05-02-11
          • 6154

          #109
          Originally posted by daneault23
          Braves came through again in the 8th inning with a 3 run homer to win the C bet. Royals game postponed for a DH tomorrow so I guess we'll have to watch the 1st game closely. Angels suck again and go for a C bet win tomorrow
          Only difference was yesterday's postponed KC play was a moneyline but today's game 1 will be a run line.
          Comment
          • grecycle99
            SBR MVP
            • 12-18-09
            • 3612

            #110
            UPDATED for 04/24/2025

            System(s) record Chase :

            Regular system: 30-0; Profit: 25.51 units
            Filtered System: 6-0; Profit: 3.9 units
            5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

            Total (3 systems) : 39-0; Profit: 44.41 unit (Series chase lost : )

            Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

            Game 1 (A) win = 23-8; 3-3; 3-0
            Game 2 (B) win = 5-3; 3-0; 0-0
            Game 3 (C) win = 3-0; 0-0

            Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
            (A) 3 * 24.20
            (B) 3 * 24.20
            (C) 2 * 24.20

            REGULAR FOR 04/24/2025


            (B) Kansas City RL -124 to win 2.42U
            (C) LA Angels -150 to win 2.42U


            Filtered

            No Play

            5/2

            No Play
            Comment
            • grecycle99
              SBR MVP
              • 12-18-09
              • 3612

              #111
              UPDATED for 04/25/2025

              System(s) record Chase :

              Regular system: 35-0; Profit: 25.65 units
              Filtered System: 7-0; Profit: 5.18 units
              5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

              Total (3 systems) : 45-0; Profit: 45.83 unit (Series chase lost : )

              Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

              Game 1 (A) win = 24-11; 4-3; 3-0
              Game 2 (B) win = 6-4; 3-0; 0-0
              Game 3 (C) win = 5-0; 0-0

              Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
              (A) 12 * 14.74
              (B)
              (C)

              REGULAR FOR 04/25/2025


              (A) Athletics RL -122 to win 1.48U
              (A) Chicago Cubs -152 to win 1.48U
              (A) LA Dodgers RL +114 to win 1.48U
              (A) Minnesota RL +110 to win 1.48U
              (A) Seattle RL -133 to win 1.48U

              Watch SD -137


              Filtered

              (A) Athletics RL -122 to win 1.48U


              5/2

              No Play
              Last edited by grecycle99; 04-25-25, 04:58 PM.
              Comment
              • Tomatero
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 05-06-17
                • 550

                #112
                Comment
                • daneault23
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-08-09
                  • 3837

                  #113
                  Athletics should be Regular/Filtered B and 5/2 A bet I think?
                  Comment
                  • grecycle99
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-18-09
                    • 3612

                    #114
                    UPDATED for 04/26/2025

                    System(s) record Chase :

                    Regular system: 35-0; Profit: 25.65 units
                    Filtered System: 7-0; Profit: 5.18 units
                    5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

                    Total (3 systems) : 45-0; Profit: 45.83 unit (Series chase lost : )

                    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                    Game 1 (A) win = 24-11; 4-3; 3-0
                    Game 2 (B) win = 6-4; 3-0; 0-0
                    Game 3 (C) win = 5-0; 0-0

                    Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
                    (A) 12 * 21.60
                    (B)
                    (C)

                    REGULAR FOR 04/26/2025


                    (B) Athletics RL -103 to win 2.16U
                    (B) LA Dodgers RL -130 to win 2.16U
                    (B) Seattle RL -101 to win 2.16U


                    Filtered

                    (B) Athletics RL -103 to win 2.16U

                    5/2

                    (A) Athletics RL -103 to win 5U
                    Comment
                    • skyscrapers
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 05-02-11
                      • 6154

                      #115
                      Doesn't make sense why A's are such a heavy favorite.
                      Comment
                      • takethepnts
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 10-18-13
                        • 574

                        #116
                        Their getting hammered. Glad I didn't play or see the pick in time .. IL be on the other 2..
                        Comment
                        • TwoCats
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 07-14-12
                          • 227

                          #117
                          Originally posted by takethepnts
                          Their getting hammered. Glad I didn't play or see the pick in time .. IL be on the other 2..
                          Unfortunately I did! Ho hum!
                          Comment
                          • takethepnts
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 10-18-13
                            • 574

                            #118
                            Originally posted by TwoCats

                            Unfortunately I did! Ho hum!
                            I've missed some wins be being late and I've missed a few losses. Sorry for the luck on this one for you ... I think they would be a RL C today ?
                            Comment
                            • grecycle99
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-18-09
                              • 3612

                              #119
                              UPDATED for 04/27/2025

                              System(s) record Chase :

                              Regular system: 35-0; Profit: 25.65 units
                              Filtered System: 7-0; Profit: 5.18 units
                              5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

                              Total (3 systems) : 45-0; Profit: 45.83 unit (Series chase lost : )

                              Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                              Game 1 (A) win = 24-11; 4-3; 3-0
                              Game 2 (B) win = 6-4; 3-0; 0-0
                              Game 3 (C) win = 5-0; 0-0

                              Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
                              (A) 6 * 26.18
                              (B)
                              (C) 4 * 26.18

                              REGULAR FOR 04/27/2025


                              (C) Athletics -182 to win 2.62U

                              Filtered

                              (C) Athletics -182 to win 2.62U

                              5/2

                              (B) Athletics -182 to win 7.15U
                              Last edited by grecycle99; Yesterday, 02:45 PM.
                              Comment
                              • daneault23
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-08-09
                                • 3837

                                #120
                                2 C bets along with a 5/2 B bet today all on the Athletics. God please help us as they've looked pretty bad lately, not sure why they've been such big favs.
                                Comment
                                • skyscrapers
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 05-02-11
                                  • 6154

                                  #121
                                  A's have dropped significantly down to a M/L play now. That's not a good sign.
                                  Comment
                                  • J.M. Disciple
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 11-16-10
                                    • 5125

                                    #122
                                    I appreciate all the plays being posted and the consistency of it. I want to say this system is on a path of destruction down the road the way the games and money is being managed. I shared in previous seasons how to manage the line in a lot safer way and compared them side by side. I don't have time to do it currently with the odds and all the plays this season, but if you look at the fact the system reached peak profit on the 25th at +45 units for all systems combined, then the A bets were still betting to win roughly 1.5 units each! That is a serious problem!

                                    If the system is at peak profit, the bets should not be increasing! We are at peak profit and yet have 12 units at risk on the A's? Does that make any sense at all?

                                    On average there are not more than 5 games on any give day. All you have to do is take a line of
                                    $20-$20-$20-$20-$20 and avg out the line each day. You don't have to cross 2 and 1 one each day or add additional units to your line when there are not enough #s on the line. The bets shouldn't be getting bigger on winning days.

                                    I'll make one more post after this using the current series to compare my method with the current method to show you the difference. The risk of ruin is way too high with the current method.

                                    Comment
                                    • J.M. Disciple
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 11-16-10
                                      • 5125

                                      #123
                                      REGULAR FOR 04/25/2025

                                      (A) Athletics RL -122 to win 1.48U = loss 1.8u
                                      (A) Chicago Cubs -152 to win 1.48U = win
                                      (A) LA Dodgers RL +114 to win 1.48U = loss 1.3u
                                      (A) Minnesota RL +110 to win 1.48U = win
                                      (A) Seattle RL -133 to win 1.48U = loss 1.97u

                                      Total: -2.11u


                                      I'll keep the same starting unit size of 1.48 per game.
                                      Line: 1.48 x 5 +2.11 units in losses
                                      This 1.48 x 5 line is 7.4 units + 2.11 units = 9.51 units / 5 for the next day

                                      REGULAR FOR 04/26/2025

                                      9.51 / 5 = bet to win 1.9u per game

                                      (B) Athletics RL -103 to win 2.16U............... Risking 1.96 to win 1.90
                                      (B) LA Dodgers RL -130 to win 2.16U........... Risking 2.47 to win 1.90 ​
                                      (B) Seattle RL -101 to win 2.16U ...................Risking 1.92 to win 1.90 ​

                                      Daily profit: 1.84u

                                      Now take the 9.51 units on the line minus the 1.84 units you won and now you have a new line of 7.67 / 5 for the next day.

                                      REGULAR FOR 04/27/2025

                                      (C) Athletics -182 to win 2.62U............2.78 To win 1.53

                                      So over these 3 days
                                      25th - 2.11 units
                                      26th +1.84 units
                                      27th +1.53 units
                                      Total profit: +1.26 units
                                      Biggest wager is 2.47 units.

                                      Compared to having 4.77 units at risk on Oak today. And this is only for the regular system. The double and triple dipping on filtered and 5/2 system is bananas. The 2023 season is an example of what I'm talking about unless you have a 1,000 units as your bankroll and even that was at risk that season!

                                      All I did was keep 5 units on the line at all times. And add or subtract the loss each day. This leads to less profit, but also the risk of ruin is minimal. Every season the current method will at some point have 10-20 unit bets at risk for each game. My method might only have half the profit, but you won't jeopardize your bankroll. Also if you reach peak profit where the line drops below $100 / 5 then you start with a fresh line. This way A bets are just 1 unit.

                                      When I get some time in May I'll make some graphs for the current method to show the swings compared to the 1 line method with 5 units on it. Can compare the profits of the two strategies. My method will have more of a plateau and small upswings. But it will have very little downhill.

                                      With all series clear and peak profit, I highly suggest changing the method going forward where you guys are not risking 10+ units on a game where you are already at peak profit.

                                      I'm not knocking the system or trying to be disrespectful in anyway. Just trying to help people manage the risk a bit better. I appreciate the daily post! Thank you​​​​
                                      Comment
                                      • daneault23
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-08-09
                                        • 3837

                                        #124
                                        Welp A's pulled it out with a walkoff in extra innings. Have to think our luck of late inning comebacks will start to turn at some point, but holding my breath for now
                                        Comment
                                        • skyscrapers
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 05-02-11
                                          • 6154

                                          #125
                                          Originally posted by daneault23
                                          Welp A's pulled it out with a walkoff in extra innings. Have to think our luck of late inning comebacks will start to turn at some point, but holding my breath for now
                                          I'm glad they turned into a M/L play!!
                                          Comment
                                          • Tomatero
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 05-06-17
                                            • 550

                                            #126
                                            Originally posted by j.m. Disciple
                                            regular for 04/25/2025

                                            (a) athletics rl -122 to win 1.48u = loss 1.8u
                                            (a) chicago cubs -152 to win 1.48u = win
                                            (a) la dodgers rl +114 to win 1.48u = loss 1.3u
                                            (a) minnesota rl +110 to win 1.48u = win
                                            (a) seattle rl -133 to win 1.48u = loss 1.97u

                                            total: -2.11u


                                            i'll keep the same starting unit size of 1.48 per game.
                                            Line: 1.48 x 5 +2.11 units in losses
                                            this 1.48 x 5 line is 7.4 units + 2.11 units = 9.51 units / 5 for the next day

                                            regular for 04/26/2025

                                            9.51 / 5 = bet to win 1.9u per game

                                            (b) athletics rl -103 to win 2.16u............... risking 1.96 to win 1.90
                                            (b) la dodgers rl -130 to win 2.16u........... risking 2.47 to win 1.90 ​
                                            (b) seattle rl -101 to win 2.16u ...................risking 1.92 to win 1.90 ​

                                            daily profit: 1.84u

                                            now take the 9.51 units on the line minus the 1.84 units you won and now you have a new line of 7.67 / 5 for the next day.

                                            regular for 04/27/2025

                                            (c) athletics -182 to win 2.62u............2.78 to win 1.53

                                            so over these 3 days
                                            25th - 2.11 units
                                            26th +1.84 units
                                            27th +1.53 units
                                            total profit: +1.26 units
                                            biggest wager is 2.47 units.

                                            Compared to having 4.77 units at risk on oak today. And this is only for the regular system. The double and triple dipping on filtered and 5/2 system is bananas. The 2023 season is an example of what i'm talking about unless you have a 1,000 units as your bankroll and even that was at risk that season!

                                            All i did was keep 5 units on the line at all times. And add or subtract the loss each day. This leads to less profit, but also the risk of ruin is minimal. Every season the current method will at some point have 10-20 unit bets at risk for each game. My method might only have half the profit, but you won't jeopardize your bankroll. Also if you reach peak profit where the line drops below $100 / 5 then you start with a fresh line. This way a bets are just 1 unit.

                                            When i get some time in may i'll make some graphs for the current method to show the swings compared to the 1 line method with 5 units on it. Can compare the profits of the two strategies. My method will have more of a plateau and small upswings. But it will have very little downhill.

                                            With all series clear and peak profit, i highly suggest changing the method going forward where you guys are not risking 10+ units on a game where you are already at peak profit.

                                            I'm not knocking the system or trying to be disrespectful in anyway. Just trying to help people manage the risk a bit better. I appreciate the daily post! Thank you​​​​
                                            im agree with your metodot,cheers buddy.
                                            Comment
                                            • Tomatero
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 05-06-17
                                              • 550

                                              #127
                                              Originally posted by skyscrapers

                                              i'm glad they turned into a m/l play!!
                                              the problem is that when you have already placed your bet and the line changes, many books do not allow you to close. The other way is to wait to see the line closing, but also, it is often not possible to keep an eye on the line.
                                              Comment
                                              • daneault23
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-08-09
                                                • 3837

                                                #128
                                                Originally posted by Tomatero

                                                the problem is that when you have already placed your bet and the line changes, many books do not allow you to close. The other way is to wait to see the line closing, but also, it is often not possible to keep an eye on the line.
                                                In the case of the White Sox/A's series there were a few SP changes for the White Sox. They have a usual starter, but switched to having an opener for the 1st inning so the starter is actually the guy who throws the 1st pitch even though he only pitches 1 inning. 2nd inning starts and the regular starter comes in and pitches the majority of the rest of the game. I think this was also cause of some downward line movement, changing a RL play to ML play but who knows.

                                                On my book, many of the RL bets once chosen - are locked into the listed pitchers so if there are changes to the SP later on then the bet is void. This actually happened to me with the A bet of that series, but it worked out in my favor there since the A's only won by 1 run. Definitely tricky.
                                                Comment
                                                • grecycle99
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-18-09
                                                  • 3612

                                                  #129
                                                  UPDATED for 04/28/2025

                                                  System(s) record Chase :

                                                  Regular system: 40-0; Profit: 28.06 units
                                                  Filtered System: 8-0; Profit: 3.76 units
                                                  5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

                                                  Total (3 systems) : 52-0; Profit: 48.82 unit (Series chase lost : )

                                                  Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

                                                  Game 1 (A) win = 26-14; 4-3; 3-1
                                                  Game 2 (B) win = 8-6; 3-1; 1-0
                                                  Game 3 (C) win = 6-0; 1-0

                                                  Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
                                                  (A) 7 * 23.87
                                                  (B)
                                                  (C)

                                                  REGULAR FOR 04/28/2025


                                                  (A) LA Dodgers RL -125 to win 2.39U

                                                  Filtered

                                                  No Play

                                                  5/2

                                                  No Play
                                                  Comment
                                                  • takethepnts
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 10-18-13
                                                    • 574

                                                    #130
                                                    Thanks Grecycle .
                                                    Comment
                                                    • J.M. Disciple
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 11-16-10
                                                      • 5125

                                                      #131
                                                      Originally posted by Tomatero

                                                      im agree with your metodot,cheers buddy.
                                                      What is metodot?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • J.M. Disciple
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 11-16-10
                                                        • 5125

                                                        #132
                                                        On the 25th the A games were 1.48 units each. All the series won and the system is at peak profit.
                                                        Now on the next set of series the A-bets are starting at 2.39 units, doesn't seem right.

                                                        52-0 on the series with 48.82 units in profit.
                                                        The labby is 7*23.87 which is 8.35 units in play. If the line clears it means the system is making more than 1 unit per series!
                                                        I think too much money is being added to the line.

                                                        I think at most being Dogers are the 53rd series there should only be 4.18 units on the line, so when the line clears it would be +53 units with 53 completed series.

                                                        I listed my way of doing it above, but if people don't want to do it that way, I would at least stop adding more money to the line. If the current line is 23.87 * 7 and IF we had 4 games today just make the line 20.88 * 8 instead of adding additional half unit to the line for each number you add to the line. If the line is bloated like $60 x 4 where we are supposed to bet 6 units a game. If we have 4 games just make it $30 x 8 rather than adding additional 2 units to the line.

                                                        Comment
                                                        • Tomatero
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 05-06-17
                                                          • 550

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

                                                          What is metodot?
                                                          I mean Strategy Method.
                                                          Comment
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