CK's 2025 MLB Thread

**atthehalf** · 04-04-25, 08:31 AM

Not that anyone gives a damn but I found out through my data mining that my best way of getting wins in this format are to stick to the FF and avoid late game bullpen collapses.

1) Follow my streamers for CRUMBS POD some sort of way be it either with K's or a side ONLY and not to mix in any other move on a POD game

2) Make moves on team totals for teams that have a 1.100 or more for an OVER and less than .400 for an UNDER

3) Always make a move on an arm that I have ranked higher than the favorite as an underdog; either RL (at less than -130) or a ML

4) Avoid buying ANYTHING over -135-even if it results in a loss from making a RL move it pays off over the course of a season

5) Only make a full game move on a TOTAL

6) Only go for K's with arms that have a a 35% or more K rate and WHIFF rate of the same

**atthehalf** · 04-04-25, 08:47 AM

BUY TIME

10 Teamers

Austin Wells-C (Bombers)
Lars Nootbar OF (Cardinals)
Kristian Campbell 2B (Red Sox)
Victor Scott OF (Cardinals)

12 Teamers

Wilyer Abreu OF (Red Sox)
Spencer Torkelson 1B (Tigers)
Tyler Soderstrom 1B (A's)
Otto Lopez (2B, 3B (Fish)

Sell

10 Teamers

Triston Casas 1B (Red Sox)
Nolan Arenado 3B (Cardinals) I caught heat over this one in the discord

12 Teamers

Nolan Jones OF (Guardians)
David Hamilton 2B/SS (Red Sox)

**atthehalf** · 04-04-25, 03:39 PM

4/5/25

First of all I blasted away on Colin Rea (Cubs) who has 0% rostership. Translated if/when he gets a spot start for the Cubs and does well I stand to make a cut of a 100% share

Secondly the CRUMBS POD Streamer of the day for Saturday is Reese Olson (Tigers). It's the Pale Hose and he has only a 20% use rate. He is highly capable of giving me the 5 frames and 3/1 that I need to keep the chunks of money rolling in even on days that are subpar for conventional moves

Bailey Ober has a ghastly 1.207 OPS against the Astronauts-time for a team total

Roki Sasaki has a 19.5%K rate and 24% whiff rate compared to Nola's 34.8% K rate and 31.8% whiff rate and even worse a 68% barrels and 89% hard hit rate. Are you serious?

All you need to know is that Bailey Falter has a 1.152 OPS vs the Bombers-oh my. And then in the other corner we have Marcus Stroman who I have demoted down to DNS status and has a line of 80 AB; 12K; 6 BB; .338 AVG, .384 OBP; .425 SLG; .809 OPS vs the Buccos.

Despite less than stellar K-rates and whiff rates Bassitt and Canning have been able to neutralize the opposing teams hitters. It's cringe worthy weird

Brady Singer with the 33.3% K rate and 34.9 % whiff rate to go along with a sterling .160 AVG, .276 OBP, .280 SLG and .556 OPS vs a DNS arm-in what looks to be a bullpen game? I will take my chances on Singer and his mitt popping 4 seamer.

What do you get when you have two DNS (DO NOT START) facing one another in Coors Field? You get the 27th ranked and 22nd ranked arms. Sears K% is 28 to go along with a 24.4% whiff rate and 16.7% barrels and a hard hit % of 44.4? Marquez has a 18.8% K and 22.2% whiff rate. The ball's gonna be in play A LOT! I will come along and fill in the prices once they become available-but for now it's important to get the A's/Rox total in BEFORE it goes up

Rot.#963 Astronauts+100 FF ML Arrighetti
Rot.#963 Astronauts Team Total OVER 3.5 -110
Rot.#954 Blunts-130 FF ML Nola 2 UNITS
Rot.#971 Bombers/Buccos OVER 5.5 +110 FF
Rot.#971 Bombers Team Total OVER 5.5 +115
Rot.#976 Jays/Metropolitans UNDER 4.5 -135 FF
Rot.#957 Red Leggins-115 FF ML Singer 2 UNITS
Rot.#977 A's/.Rox OVER 9 -115
Rot.#962 Tigers (Olson) OVER 5.5 K's +120

**atthehalf** · 04-04-25, 03:45 PM

I haven't figured out how i will use Reese Olson yet. Since my principle is to not make a move over -135 it may be difficult to find a decent price for him. His K% was at 21.7% last season so that may be the way to go. Let me sleep on it

**atthehalf** · 04-04-25, 09:17 PM

Ok so the big board has been updated

**atthehalf** · 04-05-25, 07:24 AM

Too bad Matthew Boyd has the Friars offense to contend with today-but it's in a home run suppressing park so he should be alright. I ranked him at #17 today-but he has only 9% ownership by managers so it's a decent sized payday should he do what he does. His hard hit rate is only 21.4% which is EXCELLENT

**atthehalf** · 04-05-25, 11:24 AM

ADDED MOVE

Rot.#973 Cardinals+100 ML FF Pallante

Sometimes you have to go with the metrics and trust the process. Not that Pallante is great by any measure, but his hard hit % is 37.5% and Fitts is 40% ; Pallante whiffs are at 35.1% and swing % is 47.4%. Fitts has whiffs at 18.2% and a swing % of 62.0 which is the HIGHEST out of any starter. Gotta roll with the percentages and trust it will pan out

**atthehalf** · 04-05-25, 03:34 PM

Holy smokes! Astronauts have 9 runners LOB and it's only the 7th frame! Egads!

**atthehalf** · 04-05-25, 04:37 PM

Damn-so Blunts with bases loaded and no outs don't score in the bottom of the 5th. This is turning out to be one of those days when you can do everything right and still be wrong...Pissers

**atthehalf** · 04-05-25, 08:16 PM

There may be a Kyle Finnegan sighting tomorrow for the Nats! That would be great since I have him stashed

**atthehalf** · 04-05-25, 08:35 PM

Marquez has 6 walks and it's the 6th frame-however the A's only have one run! What the heck is going on here?

**atthehalf** · 04-05-25, 09:05 PM

Ah there it is. Ok so the Astronauts was a bad beat (9 hits and 9 LOB) and so was the Blunts wit ha the bases jacked and no outs in the 5th and not getting a run. Have to look at those setbacks as collateral damage somewhat and move on to tomorrow. I have already mined it out. I am super proud of the Gators for making the NCAA final too!

**atthehalf** · 04-05-25, 09:32 PM

FILTERED FOR 4/6/25

CRUMBS POD Giants (Jordan Hicks) (16% rostership)

1:30 Rot.#911 Pale Hose +180 FF ML Perez 2 UNITS (7% rosters)
1:30 Rot.#923 Jays/Mets OVER 4.5 +110 FF Francis#12/Peterson#15 1 UNIT
1:30 Rot.#922 Buccos+130 FF ML Heaney (DNS) 1 UNIT (3% rosters)
1:30 Rot.#901 Fish+125 FF ML Alcantara#4 1 UNIT (89% rostership)
1:30 Rot.#903 Dodgers (Glasnow#1) OVER K's SCRATCH NO MOVE ON THIS
2:00 Rot.#913 Astronauts-105 FF ML Blanco 2 UNITS (60% rosters)
2:00 Rot.#916 Royals-115 FF ML Bubic 2 UNITS (19% rosters)
2:00 Rot.#907 Red Leggins/Brews OVER 4.5 -110 FF Spiers (DNS)/Patrick (DNS)
4:00 Rot.#928 Sailors/Giants UNDER 3.5 +115 FF Woo#3/Hicks#7

**atthehalf** · 04-05-25, 09:53 PM

In the event that Kyle Finnegan is named as the starter for the Nats tomorrow I will be on that too as a live underdog at +0.5 FF

**atthehalf** · 04-06-25, 08:07 AM

Glasnow is OVER 6.5 K's -155. Those who know how I get down obviously know that i don't make many moves over -135 and this won't be one of them. Big board will be updated with this move as a scratch

**atthehalf** · 04-06-25, 09:12 AM

I am not saying that I am the cause of this-I did tear up the Hard Rock sportsbook with moves on pitcher's K's last season and there ae individuals in my league who are cozy with some of the higher ups there-but the numbers that they are offering for K's is ridiculous. Like Alcantara is over 4.5 K's -170. As likely as it is to happen-I ain't putting that type of risk on any move for MLB. I already spoke on Glasnow's number. Looks like I will have to go with my non name brand selections for K's which suits me just fine

**atthehalf** · 04-06-25, 09:38 AM

Don't use this boys-you will lose lightning fast

**atthehalf** · 04-06-25, 09:40 AM

Use this instead

**atthehalf** · 04-07-25, 06:22 AM

FILTERED FOR 4/7/25

First off I drafted Valente Bellozo (Fish) appearing on 0% of rosters) and also Easton Lucas (Jays) also appearing on 0% of rosters.

Should either of those two go f or 5 frames and a 3/1 K/W ratio I will be a happy man even if I lose each and every other move for today. The potential share percentage of a 100% is ignorant

3:00 Rot.#960 Tigers+130 FF ML Mize#19 DNS (15% of rosters)
6:30 Rot.#961 Jays+115 FF ML Lucas (DRAFT 0% of rosters)
7:00 Rot.#955 Fish/Metropolitans UNDER 3.5 +115 Bellozo (DRAFT 0% rosters)/Senga#6
7:30 Rot.#968 Wanderers+110 FF ML Eovaldi#1
9:30 Rot.#969 Orioles+120 FF ML Eflin#12 (71% of rosters)
9:30 Rot.#969 Orioles (Eflin#12) OVER 4.5 +100 K's
9:30 Rot.#957 Red Leggins+128 FF ML Greene#3 (94% rosters)
9:30 Rot.#966 Sailors-0.5 -105 FF RL Gilbert#2 9
9:30 Rot.#966 Sailors Gilbert OVER 6.5 K's +105 (K's up 40% of HOU bats)

**atthehalf** · 04-07-25, 06:36 AM

Bellozo is so cold blooded that there isn't even a K's line for him-yet the FF is lined at 4. I took the 3.5 because I always try to avoid vigorous as a preference,

Because of the weak hitting shown by the Sailors-some of the boys in the discord were looking at Wesneski as their potential POD until I pointed out that against the Sailors he has a poor line of .375 AVG; .444 OBP; .625 SLG; and 1.069 OPS-which his almost at the golden 1.100 that I like to take an opposing team total to go over.

Zach Eflin has a weird stat of K'ing up 39.2% of the Snakes batters that he has faced over 51 at bats with a .176 AVG and .423 OPS and .216 SLG. It's weird. Gallen of course has stellar numbers vs the orioles and any team for that matter-still Eflin's numbers are a tad better so the juice is worth the squeeze.

Easton Lucas is the pride and joy of the Jays farm system and he gets the start today. I drafted him during the off season (of course no one paid that any mind while making NBA moves) and have him raring to go with a neat 100% share at stake. I seriously doubt that he goes the full 5 frames but there's always a good chance right? Who doesn't like volume money?

**atthehalf** · 04-07-25, 09:40 AM

Massive schedule tomorrow full of oodles of value. It's like poker. You play multiple hands all day and night. You won't win every hand. Poker isn't designed that way. You will literally fold more than you win. But when you do win you want it to be epic and stack those chips. Chris Sale to the rescue boys

**atthehalf** · 04-07-25, 03:34 PM

Landen Roupp (Giants) will be the CRUMBS POD Streamer for tomorrow. He's only on 7% of rosters so a nice 93% share is a distinct possibility.

So blast away with him on all platforms, 10 teamer and 12 teamers especially

**atthehalf** · 04-07-25, 05:11 PM

Berrios got subbed in for Lucas-so make sure to get your money back for that move from your book as the LISTED are not facing one another

**atthehalf** · 04-07-25, 07:45 PM

Damn... the Fish took out Bellozo with the score 1-0 in the 5th. Why? Coaches decisions will lose a move faster than anything

**atthehalf** · 04-08-25, 06:40 AM

The Blunts beat the Dodgers in a series. Now comes the reality that our hero can shut them down. Chris Sale has had 78 at bats vs the Blunts. he has k'd up 35 of those. That's ownership. Aces gonna ace

Skenes is great when the Buccos need him to be; and against Sonny he will deliver. Dude's given up only 3.4% barrels so far this season, Roll with him AND Sonny Gray-just not in THIS platform

Ragans-Aces gonna ace

Crochet-Aces gonna ace

Peralta has K'd up 44.7% of the Rox he has faced. Aces gonna ace (even at Coors Field) NEXT

Keep riding the Roupp train until the wheels fall off. As the proud manager that I am to have drafted him when no one else even thought about it-I am set up for continual large paydays reminiscent of a few years back when I drafted Spencer Strider before anyone even knew who he was. I purchased my 4 Runner courtesy of Strider that season. I see more of the same with this guy-he's got electric stuff

Besides- I need some magic CRUMBS. Most of the aces are owned high as hell so there won't be much fantasy profit at all

Connor Gillespie? I mean Holmes isn't a -200 pitcher to begin with and Gillespie gives me an opportunity to be on the 99% of collections

4/8/25 FILTERED

Rot.#905 Fish+0.5 +140 Gillespie (1%)
Rot.#905 Fish Team Total OVER 3.5 +185
Rot.#918 Red Sox-130 FF RL Crochet#2 (99%)
Rot.#922 Royals-135 ML FF Ragans#5 (99%)
Rot.#908 Braves-125 ML FF Sale#4 (99%)2 UNITS
Rot.#925 Wanderers/Cubs OVER4.5 100 FF Corbin#29 DNS/Taillon#21
Rot.#909 Brews (Peralta#12 (95%)) OVER K's -140
Rot.#912 Giants-135 FF ML Roupp#16 (7%) CRUMBS POD
Rot.#930 A's+0.5 -125FF RL Springs#17 (37%)

**atthehalf** · 04-08-25, 08:15 AM

Guys you don't have to go strictly DM when you have questions. I don't bite LOL!

Ok so a reader wants to know more about the Fish/Metropolitans moves and also why i am not as detailed as I was on the thread from last year.

First things first

Here's Holmes historic line vs the Fish

24 AB; 8K; 3BB; .333 AVG, .407 OBP; .333 SLG; .741 OPS

Here's Gillespie's history vs Metropolitans

20 AB; 7K; 0BB, .200 AVG; .200 OBP; .350 SLG; .550 OPS

Holmes HH % this season 37.9%; Gillespie's 41.7 (not much difference)
Holmes K% this season 21.7%; Gillespie's 23.3% (not much difference)

Holmes BB% 13.9%; Gillespie's 9.3%

Holmes whiff% 16.9; Gillespie's 25.4%

The only stat where Holmes is better than Gillespie is the flyball vs groundballs where Holmes has a GB% of 69.0% and Gillespie 34.5% and flyballs Holmes 3.4% and Gillespie 20.7. However the weather in the Bronx is going to be COLD with a high of 44degrees so there's that.

Ad for all of the money that he is paid Juan Soto only has 10% barrels this season. there are 6 players on the Fish with higher barrel percentage than him right now! If not for Pete Alonso the Metropolitans would be having all kinds of issues.

Part two

It's the silence that I enjoy about posting here-it's also the reason why I don't go as much into detail. grecycle99 doesn't interact much either and his system is killing it

**atthehalf** · 04-08-25, 04:47 PM

Ah damn...another managerial decision cost me. Gillespie gets pulled with a 2-2 score through 4 frames and got pulled. Then Faucher here comes in for relief and immediately gives up two runs in the bottom of the 5th. I hate it when coaches do that

**atthehalf** · 04-08-25, 10:53 PM

There are enough teams in jeopardy of being swept tomorrow to not have to do any homework. Just runlines and fun times

**atthehalf** · 04-09-25, 05:55 AM

UNFILTERED 4/9/25

Basically I am going to make moves on all of the teams that are in jeopardy of being swept with full game moves and simultaneously attempting to not spend over -140 vigorously. So that means I will take a few hits making RL move-however it is in the spirit of a long season's returns. These are all FULL GAME moves

Wanderers+130 Mahle
Bombers-1.5 +115 RL Fried
Fish+1.5 -115 RL Meyer
Dodgers-1.5 -110 RL Knack
Twinkies-110 Ryan
Red Sox-130 Houck
Rox+1.5 -130 RL Senzatela
Rays-140 Pepiot

Other moves

Astronauts (Brown) OVER 7.5 K's +115
Pale Hose+140 ML FF Burke
Red Leggins+120 ML FF Martinez

**atthehalf** · 04-09-25, 08:28 AM

The BIG BOARD has been updated with a few surprises

**atthehalf** · 04-09-25, 08:42 AM

Rest in the sky Frank Robinson

**atthehalf** · 04-09-25, 06:51 PM

So far the Bombers and Dodgers did me in for the RL's which is to be expected and is collateral damage. Other than that the systematic approach for today is doing just fine

**atthehalf** · 04-09-25, 06:58 PM

Alright-for tomorrow grab some Jose Soriano (Halos). With only 25% rostership I stand to get a nice amount of change back with a good split should he get me 5 frames and the golden 3/1 K/W ratio. I love these chunks of money my streamers bring in, and I am buying LOW right now for stocks at bargain prices-although they went up again today with trump announcing that he is putting a 90 day freeze on some tariffs. The joes have no idea that this is exactly when you should be snapping up positions instead of selling. Hold your ground on the Magnificent 7 and purchase even more United States Steel Corporation (X) which his trading now at $45.14

**atthehalf** · 04-09-25, 09:10 PM

FILTERED 4/10/25

Surprisingly I found that Bailey Ober is in bad form right now and on top of that he has bad numbers vs the Royals-especially Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals got shut out on Wednesday night. Over she blows

Let's keep the poker chips moving y'all. It's a long season and before you know it-there will come along some HUGE moves for conventional sides and totals for y'all.

I know that the Red Sox are the move when they are in jeopardy of losing 4 straight to the Jays-but Buehler is not off to a good start and Bassitt is clearly in a happier place right now.So I don't know if the SIDE is the way to go. The totals for this series have been 8.5, 8, and 8 for the first 3 games and this one opened up at 9 despite 2 UNDERS and a PUSH. You know the drill

Jonathan Cannon (Pale Hose)doesn't do much right against the Guardians with a line of 19 AB; 4K; 1BB, .368 AVG; .400 OBP; .632 SLG; 1.032 OPS and on top of that this season he has a 47.8% Hard Hit rate and 15.4% walk rate. Conversely I don't necessarily trust Gavin Williams to cover a 1.5 line with the Pale Hose needing a win in the series. He isn't so hot this year and the ONLY thing that he is doing decently is his hard hit rate is 26.9%. That's it. Look at it this way-the Pale Hose had 8 hits to the Guardians 3 and lost a nail biter on Wednesday Advantage to the Pale Hose miraculously. At least they won't have to see Clase at the end of the game who was used on Wednesday. Throw out the +1.5. Go for the gusto. I won't be taking a - ANYTHING for this opportunity.

My CRUMBS POD Streamer for today is (Halos) Jose Soriano#5 who is appearing on only 25% of rostership which is absurd given the level of his talent. The sinker and curve are working and the slider has been cooking against right hand batters-plus it's the Rays right? Sign me up for a potential split of the 75% pie. Intersecting fantasy streaming and conventional sides and totals always starts slow and then builds up like a campfire where it's for s'mores and storytelling at first for the kids and then adults getting cozy and drinking whiskey later on.

Pure joes fade for the Rox to avoid a super sweep

Rot.#907 Halos+110 ML FF Soriano#5 (HD)
Rot.#905 Pale Hose+185 ML Cannon FULL GAME
Rot.#905 Pale Hose/Guardians OVER 7.5 +100 FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#909 Twinkies/Royals OVER 4.5-110 FF Ober#2/Wacha#6 (Ober is in bad form right now)
Rot.#902 Rox+100 Feltner(DNS) FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#911 Jays/Red Sox OVER 9.5 +105 Bassitt#7/Buehler#9 FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#904 Braves-130 ML FF Schwellenbach#1

**atthehalf** · 04-10-25, 03:15 PM

Alright so we are having a yacht and dock party at the Commish's house tomorrow (Friday) night. There will be about somewhere in the range of 100 people there with pretty much everyone in our league and their significant others (wives, girlfriends etc who will undoubtedly be hanging out inside of his pad getting plastered). Event starts pretty much as soon as everyone gets there. Since most all of us are in the legal community one way or the other guests will be sprinkling in as early as 3-4 PM

Basically it's a chance for us all to get together, have some good food, good smoke and cocktails (his bourbon and cigar collections are unmatched) and make some moves on the games and watch them together-although primarily it's Big Inning on MLB TV on the screens.

So my moves will be sporadic throughout the evening in the time slots starting at 6:00 Pm, So check back in around 10 minutes before each slot-like 5:50 PM for the 6:00 PM games; 6:20 for the 6:30 games; 6:50 PM for the 7:00 games and so one. I can't get too pickled-gotta get my son to his baseball game in the morning.

Think Manning Cast on steroids-because some of these guys are really good