Looks like Soriano is going to give me a huge return for the frames-and not the K's. But I will take it
-
Comment -
Our runner showed up at my door this morning so basically I had to figure this out over coffee and beignets. I may or may not have hit the bong. I am not sure. Anyway I filtered them of course. At least this way no one has to keep coming back and forth to see what's what. I listed these with a 10 minute gap before actual start times for y'all. Enjoy your Friday
FILTERED 4/11/25
5:50 PM Rot.#963 Royals Bubic#9 (64%) OVER 5.5 K's +110
5:50 PM Rot.#963 Royals+115 ML FF Bubic#9 (64%)
5:50 PM Rot.#964 Guardians Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 BASES
6:20 PM Rot.#952 Red Leggins Team Total OVER 4.5 +100
6:20 PM Rot.#952 Red Leggins-0.5 -115 FF RL Singer#10 (62%)
6:50 PM Rot.#966 Orioles-120 ML FF Sugano (9%)
6:50 PM Rot.#977 Giants/Bombers OVER 4.5 -105 FF Ray#8 (65%)/Stroman#25 (5%) DNS
7:20 PM Rot.#967Red Sox Team total OVER 4.5 -105 Martin#21 (1%) DNS
7:50 PM Rot.#969 Halos Team Total OVER 4.5 +120
7:50 PM Rot.#955 Blunts Cardinals OVER 4.5 +110 FF Nola#4 (97%)/Pallante#28 (4%)
7:50 PM Rot.#969 Halos+115 FF ML Kochanowicz#17 (2%)
9:20 PM Rot.#957 Rox/Fathers OVER 4.5 +105 FF Marquez#29 (2%)/Pivetta#6 (76%)
9:20 PM Rot.#960 Snakes (Rodriguez#16) (10%) OVER 5.5 K's +110
9:20 PM Rot.#973 Wanderers-135 ML FF deGrom#1 (96%)
9:50 PM Rot.#980 A's +0.5 -120 FF RL Sears#22 (9%)DNS
9:50 PM Rot.#979 Metropolitans/A's OVER 5.5 FF+105 Canning#27 (4%) DNS/Sears#22 (9%)DNS
9:50 PM Rot.#962 Cubs/Dodgers UNDER 4.5 -130 FF Boyd#18 (17%)/Yamamoto#2 (99%)
9:50 PM Rot.#961 Cubs+1.5 -130 RL Boyd#18 (17%) FULL GAMEComment -
Bleh-up and down day yesterday-however the event was wonderful!
FILTERED 4/12/25
Today I am pretty much going with the arms that grade decently that also are for the most part under 14% rostership. translated I am after some really big crumbs today with percentile share profit splits as high as 99% in some cases.
I will be able to start producing my TOP 10 streamers each day soon. I usually like to start doing that after the 4th or 5th start of the season. Then you will see me start working almost exclusively off of that list for conventional sides and totals. Right now as with any MLB season at the beginning it's hit or miss making conventional moves on sides and totals. I am making big chunks of money streaming-but that success rate hasn't translated over to the conventional side early here.
So what you see in the parenthesis next to my STREAMER moves shows the amount of rostership for the arm. If you follow that as a guide then you will start to see how big chunks of money are made streaming. Remember it doesn't matter in that world whether the team wins or loses or how many runs the arm gives up-it's purely a want for 5 frames and a 3/1 K/W ratio. So when i say that I can actually win just one streaming move and lose each and every conventional move-that happens a lot! I am trying to clear 5 dimes today so I am buying low-speaking of buying low-anyone who followed my stock tip about buying while the tariff panic was going on-you made a ton of money like i did when the rebound happened. So what you want to do is to look at those big gainers and buy some MORE and HOLD
Anyway tomorrow as per the usual i will be blasting away on teams in jeopardy of getting swept
Rot.#916 Orioles-125 FF ML Sugano (9%) 91% share split at stake
Rot.#917 Red Sox-0.5 -110 FF RL Fitts (6%) 94% share split at stake
Rot.#905 Buccos+105 FF ML Heaney (6%) 94% share split at stake 2 UNITS CONVENTIONAL
Rot.#914 Twinkies-115 FF ML Paddack (1%) 99% share split at stake
Rot.#923 Wanderers+123 Rocker (22%) 78% share split at stake
Rot.#909 Rox+0.5 -105 FF RL Dollander (11%) 89% share split at stake
Rot.#919 Royals+112 Lorenzen (6%)94% share split at stake
Rot.#901 Blunts-0.5 -110 FF Sanchez (86%) 14% share split at stakeComment -
UNFILTERED 4/13/25
As promised here we go with the tams in jeopardy of being swept tomorrow and one more for Sunday
Royals-125 ML Ragans 2 UNITS
Buccos+165 ML Mlodzinski
Red Sox-1.5 -125 RL Crochet
Twinkies-115 ML Woods-Richardson 2 UNITS
Rox+1.5 -110 RL Freeland 2 UNITS
Jays+115 ML Berrios
Wanderers+118 Eovaldi
Astronauts-145 WesnieskiComment -
Yesterday was one of those days where everyone who only made my moves on the conventional sides and totals went down in flames and those who used my STREAMING options made a TON OF MONEY.
Rot.#916 Orioles-125 FF ML Sugano (9%) 91% share split at stake LOSS
Rot.#917 Red Sox-0.5 -110 FF RL Fitts (6%) 94% share split at stake WIN
Rot.#905 Buccos+105 FF ML Heaney (6%) 94% share split at stake WIN
Rot.#914 Twinkies-115 FF ML Paddack (1%) 99% share split at stake LOSS
Rot.#923 Wanderers+123 Rocker (22%) 78% share split at stake LOSS
Rot.#909 Rox+0.5 -105 FF RL Dollander (11%) 89% share split at stake WIN
Rot.#919 Royals+112 Lorenzen (6%)94% share split at stake WIN
Rot.#901 Blunts-0.5 -110 FF Sanchez (86%) 14% share split at stake LOSS
I took losses with Rocker, Sugano, Paddack and Sanchez, but will get paid a ridiculous amount of money with 94% share splits on Fitts, Lorenzen and Heaney, and an 89% share of Dollander. I am going to roll it over to Monday for my pick up.
For today my CRUMBS TREAMING POD is
(Astronauts) Hayden Wesneski (13%)
I have hope that he is more than a sweeper first arm, and that his great extension against a questionable Halos lineup leads to a 5 frame 3/1 K/W ratio day
Wesneski vs Halos 35 AB; 9K; 2BB; .086 AVG, .135 OBP; .286 SLG; .421 OPS
Exit velocity 87 MPH (great), Hard Hit Rate 33.3% (great) , Expected Weighted On Base Advantage .246 (great), Expected Batting Average .181 (great), Expected Slugging Percentage .291 (great); K% 24.4 (good not great); 6.7% BB; and 3% Barrels (otherworldly great)
All of this for an opportunity to get paid an portion of the 87% of shares. I'd say that is some damn good money to add to yesterday's haul for a happy Monday morning at the Commish's office before I go out and serve some men and women divorce papers at their places of employment
For those who are not streaming-shame on you and here's how to approach this move conventionally
Astronauts-145 ML WesneskiLast edited by atthehalf; 04-13-25, 07:04 AM.Comment -
With a line of 6 frames and 10 K's and no walks Hayden Wesneski did a fine job of cashing in for an 87% profit share yesterday. I made all kinds of solid money this weekend streaming.
Ok so for today there's more
Metropolitans Grant Holmes (17%)
Kids got electric stuff and no one is noticing. I'd say K'ing up 29% of all batters faced is pretty good.
His K's line is absurd at 4.5 -155 so for him to be used in this conventional sense may want to go with him FF with his team to back him. For more bang for your buck use him in a 10 teamer and watch your earnings go through the fuckin roof! Absolutely no one is taking him in a 10 teamer
CRUMBS POD STREAMER Metropolitans+105 FF Holmes
And here are the rest ( I made a move on the Bombers last night-most MLB bettors have no problem going with high vigorous so the going rate of -150 shouldn't be much of an issue. Also Ben Rice is priced high as hell-but he is very good at his craft so I went on and did it. I got out of my comfort zone and went with -160 for him to get a hit
FILTERED 4/14/25
Rot.#902 Buccos-1.5 Skenes 2 UNITS
Rot.#910 Bombers-125 Carrasco 2 UNITS
Giants/Blunts UNDER 4.5 -115 FF Roupp/Walker
Dodgers Team Total OVER 5.5 -105
Bombers (Rice) OVER 0.0.5 HITS -160
Astronauts (Alvarez) OVER 1.5 BASES +120
Jays (Lucas)-120 ML FF
Tigers (Skubal)-0.5 -110 FF RL
Fathers (Cease) -0.5 -113 FF RL
Cardinals (Gray) OVER 5.5 K's -130
Rays (Baz) OVER 6.5 K's +115Comment -
Use percentages of note that I used today in my 10 teamer along with some bats. Yes I am trying to break the piggy bank folks. I didn't use Baz in my roster for today as he is picking up steam amongst the sharps in the group and his use rate skyrocketed over the past few days since his last start
Giants (Roupp) 10%
Jays (Lucas) 10%
Bombers (Carrasco) 1%
Metropolitans (Holmes) 17%Comment -
A good viable option would be to take those 4 and blast them into a 4 way parlay-knowing that the joes are completely on the other side in streaming..... and more importantly in a conventional sense. I highly doubt that Carrasco will give a 5 frame 3/1 K/W ratio-trust me-my stomach hurt when I made that move-but it was too hard to pass up an opportunity to get a stake of a 99% profit share. However again citing the conventional sense here-the Bombers lost their series to the Giants and I seriously doubt that they will show up to the field in a jovial mood today All hail the bowling pin bats!Comment -
MLB record update (Monitored at The Action Network renosharpreportbetting)
70-76-5 (48%) -7.93 UNITS ROI -4.44%
Interesting tidbit pointed out by the moderators there at The Action Network-I have 22 one run losses so far this season on totals and sides and further that my good bets vs bad bets is HUGE on the good side as I have a luck score that verifies my record should be much much better than it is. The area where the most issue has been so far this season is with RL moves where the teams are winning straight up but not by 2 for full game moves or tying for FF.
No sweat. The arms are starting to get well oiled and yes Spencer Strider is coming back this week! Yay!Comment -
Thanks for the record update and explanation. Sorry about the bad luck. Thanks for all of your work and for the early posts.Comment -
Clay Holmes with 5 frames and 8 k's and 2 walks-the CRUMBS POD wins again. Those who put him on a 10 teamer cashed BIG!
FILTERED 4/15/25
For 4/15/25 the CRUMBS STREAMER POD is
Jake Irvin
Coming in with only 3% ownership and a chance at a sweet 97% share payday is Irvin-his curve was on point last time out and pitching in PNC is a good thing. I'm going for it, Both he and Keller aren't the best arms in the gym but I can't pass up an opportunity like this with so little cost should he go down in flames.
Charlie Morton K's up 37.2 of the Guardians hitters historically. He may suck but he will strike yo ass out. Also the problem here is that Allen has a 1.151 OPS vs the Orioles-and you should already know the rule for me when I see an OPS over 1.100. Norton only is getting on 10% of rosters so this one stands to be a big payday
I am very interested in seeing Wcha vs Fried. Wacha OWNS the Bombers with an average against of .139 over 72 at bats and a sweet OPS of .485.
Randy Arozarena has an otherworldly 2.500 OPS vs Lodolo. Outside of that Lodolo has all of the advantages coming into this one and Castillo is not in his best form. He's an ace tho y'all. Here's hoping that the Red Leggins put the ball in play and get some runs up early. Castillo has the world on his side.
Not much in the way of return for Jack Flaherty but it's still wise to use him if you've got him on roster
Big CRUMBS are to be had for Feltner to be able to last 5 frames with a 3/1 K/W ratio against the Dodgers with a whopping 1% of ownership y'all-and his number vs the Dodgers are GOOD
79 AB; 12K; 12 BB; .190 AVG; .297 OBP; .253 SLG, .550 OPS;
Add to that 6.3% BARRELS (WONDERFUL), 31.1% WHIFFS; 5.9% BB
If I win this Feltner move I may catch the public bus and then be seen running through downtown in my birthday suit and a propeller hat
Rot.#952 Fish+0.5 FF RL Gillespie#29 (1%)
Rot.#953 Nats+105 FF ML Irvin#16 (3%) CRUMBS POD
Rot.#972 Red Leggins-105 FF ML Lodolo#11 (62%)
Rot.#971 Sailors (Arozarena) OVER 1.5 BASES +130
Rot.#962 Orioles-0.5 -110 FF RL Morton#25 (10%) (DNS)
Rot.#962 Orioles Morton#25 (10%) OVER 6.5 K's +145
Rot.#962 Orioles Team Total OVER 4.5 -105
Rot.#956 Blunts-1.5 +145 RL Luzardo#7 (83%) FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#956 Blunts (Luzardo#7) OVER 6.5 K's +115
Rot.#966 Royals/Bombers UNDER 4.5 -115 FF Wacha#21/Fried#1
Rot.#973 Braves-135 ML FF Schwellenbach#2 (95%)
Rot.#977 Tigers-130 FF ML Flaherty#3 (91%)
Rot.#977 Tigers (Flaherty) OVER 6.5 K's +125
Rot.#975 Metropolitans (Megill#12 (45%)) OVER .6.5 K's +105
Rot.#967 Athletics-1.5 +105 RL Springs#10 (34%) FULL GAME
Rot.#979 Astronauts-135 ML FF Brown#4 (93%)
Rot.#959 Rox+240 FF ML Feltner#30 (1%) 2 UNITS
Comment -
I already know that I am not gonna get the conventional wins for all of the K's lines I made moves on-yet I am trying to avoid as much vigorous as possible over the course of the season-pays off in the long run like the stock marketComment -
Jake Irvin with the sweet 7 frames and 6/1 K/W payday overnight. That 97% share is pretty large. So large that our runner still hasn't finished his collections and probably won't until it's roll out time this morning. Everyone thought it was a church chicken dinner I guess. Straight cash homies!
4/16/25
It's Spencer Strider Day! Yes I did draft him and no I am not going to roll with him in a conventional way yet but he is on my 15 teamer as i am going to be cautious at first until I see what i need to see-sweepers followed by 4 seamers high and inside in the zone
Rolling with Cubs (Matthew Boyd) today for my CRUMBS POD Streamer. He is getting 23% of rostership today so there is a very good return for the quality of the arm you are getting. I ranked Boyd at 15 only because he is facing the fathers potent lineup
Dean Kremer (Orioles) is a good chance to get a 97% return also! Keider Montero is getting absolutely no love (0%)-a share of 100% return-I'm in. David Festa (Twinkies); an opportunity for a 96% share split
Max Meyer shouldn't be an underdog to Brandon Pfaadt who has taken a step back. basically I have to continue using Meyer because I drafted him before the season began and he is paying me big dividends
Rot.#902 Cubs+115 FF ML Boyd#15 (23%)CRUMBS POD
Rot.#919 Halos-0.5 +105 FF RL Soriano#12 (38%)
Rot.#916 Royals/Bombers OVER 4.5 -135 FF Bubic/Schmidt
Rot.#912 Orioles-0.5 +100 FF RL Kremer#21(3%) 2 UNITS
Rot.#912 Orioles FF Team Total OVER 2.5 +115
Rot.#926 Twinkies-0.5 +105 RL FF Festa#19 (4%)
Rot.#906 Fish+115 ML FF Meyer#16(31%) 2 UNITS
Rot.#927 Astronauts/Cardinals OVER 4.5 -130 FF Blanco#13 (43%)
Rot.#923 Tigers ML FF Montero (DNS) (0%) (S/O (A)) FULL GAME
Rot.#913 Red Sox/Rays OVER 9.5 +105 Newcomb (DNS)/Littell (DNS) (FULL GAME)Comment -
Be BOLD-use Boyd in your 12 teamers y'all-you won't be disappointedComment -
Do I correctly understand that each pick is for the first five innings, except for the Tigers and Boston/TB over, which are full game plays?Comment -
Correct-I didn't tidy up the FF to remove it from the Tigers offering.
Anyway here we go for some MORE day game magic
Cubs/Fathers UNDER 7.5
A's/Pale Hose UNDER 7.5Comment -
Damn....another half run loss with the Astronauts/Cardinals FF...I guess those Action network guys are real when they analyzed my losses as being good losses. it still kid of sucks for those following me.
Anyway Keider Montero with 5 frames so far and 8 K's and 1 BB for the Tigers and having grabbed him as a DNS with 0% I am getting a 100% share payout shared only with the Commish if he comes out of the game and goes away. I can only take one more walk if he stays at 8 K'sComment -
God managerial decision to get Keider out of there LOL! Good stuff!Comment -
Rot.#915 Royals+125 Bubic
God help me for this-however I just realized that they are in jeopardy of being shut out-so I had to make the move despite my feelings. Sometimes you just gotta get out of your headComment -
Ok so Strider went 5 frames with a 5/1 K/W ratio which is wonderful for anyone other than Superman-but I will take it wishing that I had put him on a 10 teamer LOL!Comment -
Damn-another one run loss with the Cubs FF-they had the bases JUICED with no outs in the top of the 3rd and only got one run across the plate. Pissers-well at least the UNDER still looks goodComment -
Part of me-no well all of me wants the Cubs manager to remove Boyd from the game right now with 5 frames under his belt and the 3/1 K/W ratio so that I can get paid LOL!Comment -
Goddamit! They let Boyd pitch the 6th and he gives up a walk the first batter-now I need 3 K's out of him-not looking goodComment -
What a piss off yesterday with the Cubs manager leaving Boyd in and him promptly giving up a walk to fuckoff my move-it is what it is..
Further pissing me off was the fact that I had Woo (Sailors) ranked at #3 and inexplicably overnight he was swapped out for Emerson Hancock who has a 81.00 ERA (not a misprint); and now I am left to find a bat during the course of the day-and today most of the events are on EARLY! I have to find a way to fill that slot
Anyway today it's all systems go on ...well systems moves-an assortment of shutout systems and teams potentially about to be swept. No homework involved today.
4/17/25
Fish+1.5 -120 RL Cabrera
Halos+125 Kochanowicz
Pale Hose+1.5 -130 RL Martin
Buccos-124 ML Heaney
Blunts-1.5 +115 RL SanchezComment -
Draft and stash Colin Rea (Brews) for tomorrow as a DNS vs Snakes (Burnes). HURRY!Comment -
Stat line of the day so far
E-Rod has 7 K's and 6 hits vs the Fish. The Fish only have 1 run. How does that happen LOL!Comment -
Fish have 11 hits and ...still 3 runs..wow! that's like other world crazy!Comment -
It's official. I have already made my last moves with the Rox, Fish and the Pale Hose as sides for this entire season regardless of how good they look on paper. They are money burners
I have to make moves with Noah Schultz when he comes up tho-but it will be on something other than the sideComment -
Rot.#967 Halos/Wanderers OVER 9.5 +100Comment -
Bombers-105 Warren
This is actually a HOME game for the Bombers tooComment -
4/18/25
Firstly David Peterson-the weather is normal and the velocity is up and he gets the Cardinals-ok so looking inside of the numbers he hasn't impressed me. Exit velocity 92.2 on average; hard hit rate 50%; 11.3 walks average per nine innings. It's true that he doesn't have much history vs the Cardinals-and that may work to his advantage early-but not the second time through the order. Mikolas would be a stud if all that he had to do was face the Metropolitans. Plus the CRUMBS for this guy-oh my goodness! 98%
Rot.#905 Cardinals+145 Mikolas#25 (2%)
It's Woo Day-we should all be so thankful. Aces gonna ace y'all. Not much in the way of a return however
Rot.#913 Sailors-120 FF ML Woo#5 (87%)
Corbin Burnes-every imaginable issue is present for him after the big contract. He's struggling to make his best pitch stellar again. Exit velocity is 93.9 on average; hard hit 54.5%; 13% walks per nine frames. Hmm- I will take my chances with Rea who has another one of those 1% rostership rates. And he isn't a bad arm either
Rot.#902 Cubs+103 Rea#29 (1%)
Ragans-aces gonna ace-next. The game ML is -136 and the FF ML is -155-what does that tell you?
Rot.#909 Royals-0.5 -105 FF RL Ragans#2 (99%)
Kyle Hart is getting love because he is playing for the Fathers and they are winning. His changeup and frisbee aren't what I want it to be to back him and he will get a ton of right handed batters today against the Astronauts. Go the other way with Gusto and the 98% share
Rot.#926 Astronauts-135 Gusto#28 (2%)
UPSET SPECIAL
I know that Freddy Peralta is the MAN! I have him ranked at #8 (96% of rosters y'all) and there's no denying that he is a master at his craft. The problem is that against the A's he has a 1.333 OPS and .333 average. Meanwhile JT Ginn is getting 1% rostership and I am hunting for CRUMBS moreso than conventional wins. Ginn has added more drop to his sinker and also velocity in his return to the rotation. Today he is pitching in a pitcher friendly park as well. The A;s also are in the bottom 5 in the league at striking out-which means that the ball will be in play A LOT!
Rot.#927 A's+140 Ginn#16 (1%)
Ortiz#15 vs Mlodzinski#30 DNS (DEAD LAST)? What are you serious?
Guardians/Buccos OVER 9
The Bombers are striking out in big numbers and are currently #8 with 174 K's (WOWZERS!). Here to save the day is Drew Rasmussen with a crispy 27.8% K's.
Rot.#912 Rays (Rasmussen#10) OVER 5.5 K's -105Comment -
Time to introduce my TOP TEN Streamers again
#1 Blunts (Wheeler 99%)
#2 Royals (Ragans 99%)
#3 Dodgers (Yamamoto 99%)
#4 Giants (Webb 98%)
#5 Sailors (Woo 87%)
#6 Bombers (Rodon 84%)
#7 Wanderers (DeGrom 93%)
#8 Brews (Peralta 96%)
#9 Fish (Alcantara 86%)
#10 Rays (Rasmussen 55%)
Comment -
Ordinarily as most readers know-since two of the top ten are facing one another I usually would elect to take the UNDER FF for those (Alcantara/Wheeler 3.5 +105 and Rodon/Rasmussen 4.5 -105). I just may end up going with those as the day progressesComment -
Wind is blowing OUT at Wrigley Field today-you know what to do
Snakes/Cubs OVER 11 -115Comment
