I know that betting the first 5 innings basically takes the bullpens out of the bet. Are there any other advantages or disadvantages to taking the first 5 innings v. betting on the whole game?
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the whole game
but tonite in that washington game #2 was enough to make me sick,but they pulled it offComment -
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i dont know its just the way ive always bet seems to be an even balance,fortunate for us great bullpens have bad days to,i also like the change up it brings to the game after 6 or 7 innings
yes it can backfire,or benefit you betting 5 inning lines i dont think the negative part will affect a positive return on the money betting the whole gameComment -
You already nailed it fearless, the advantage of betting the first five innings is that it takes the bullpens out of the equation.
Personally, I prefer whole games because I am a bullpen kind of guy!
Plus theoretically (although I admit I don't have the numbers to support this), you would think that first five innings results would be more chalky since at least 80% of the betting line is based on starting pitching. That is another reason why I prefer whole games, since I am a value player and rarely lay -130 or more on anything.Comment -
This is what I was looking for. I'm gonna make a small bet on the first innings of Webb v. Snell. Looks like a good bet to me.You already nailed it fearless, the advantage of betting the first five innings is that it takes the bullpens out of the equation.
Personally, I prefer whole games because I am a bullpen kind of guy!
Plus theoretically (although I admit I don't have the numbers to support this), you would think that first five innings results would be more chalky since at least 80% of the betting line is based on starting pitching. That is another reason why I prefer whole games, since I am a value player and rarely lay -130 or more on anything.
Thanks LT and accuscoresucks!
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You already nailed it fearless, the advantage of betting the first five innings is that it takes the bullpens out of the equation.
Personally, I prefer whole games because I am a bullpen kind of guy!
Plus theoretically (although I admit I don't have the numbers to support this), you would think that first five innings results would be more chalky since at least 80% of the betting line is based on starting pitching. That is another reason why I prefer whole games, since I am a value player and rarely lay -130 or more on anything.
"I am a value player and rarely lay -130 or more on anything" - LT
LT,
It's easy to make that observation about you. But the chalky ones are sometimes more or less a "gift". If you GUARANTEE me a 40% return on a bet, I'd take it. My concern is to minimize losses.Comment -
Wilforth,
Well, my thinking is that it is harder to find a significant edge with bigger favorites, and it is impossible to guarantee a 40% ROI on anything.Comment -
I have pondered this myself, but stick with whole games. Seems like for every game you lose in the ninth, you win one as well. If I can go 50% on +120 dogs I am happy as piss.Comment -
Assuming you've done your handicapping well and you are on the right side, the bullpen should theoretically help you as often as it hurts you.
We always remember the instances where they cough up a 3 run bomb to break up our parlay... not the times our starters leave the game with the bases juiced and they jog in and get an inning ending double play.
If you want to bet the ace on a team with a dreadful bullpen, 5 innings is a clear cut better play. But assuming you see no real edge to either bullpen, there is no reason to believe your team can't pull it off in 9... especially if your starter goes 7 or 8 and keeps them in the game long enough to have that 3 run 8th that you already threw away your 5 inning ticket on.Comment -
I'll bet the first 5 when there's an ace in sometimes, or if the bullpen particularly sucks.Comment
