Dodgers - 140 Looks Really Good Today

**hardball** · 05-19-12, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

he has a lower Era and lower whip than last year, what in the world are you talking about?

LOB and BAIBP is above career/league average. Lady luck has helped more than hurt so far.

Fip is higher, k/9 is lower, hr/fb% is higher, and WAR is at a career low.

Again, huge Kershaw fan and hope he gets the Win....

But he's not dominating hitters like last year. Yet

**No coincidences** · 05-19-12, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by hardball

LOB and BAIBP is above career/league average. Lady luck has helped more than hurt so far.

Fip is higher, k/9 is lower, hr/fb% is higher, and WAR is at a career low.

Again, huge Kershaw fan and hope he gets the Win....

But he's not dominating hitters like last year. Yet

Like I said....

Thanks hardball.

**brahmabull117** · 05-19-12, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by hardball

LOB and BAIBP is above career/league average. Lady luck has helped more than hurt so far.

Fip is higher, k/9 is lower, hr/fb% is higher, and WAR is at a career low.

Again, huge Kershaw fan and hope he gets the Win....

But he's not dominating hitters like last year. Yet

Fair points, but we're still complaining about a guy with a low 2 era, sub 0.95 whip and nearly a 4 to 1 K to BB ratio. he's a magnificent pitcher

**smitch124** · 05-19-12, 09:40 PM

Yeah, not measuring up to last year doesn't mean he isn't dominant this year as well, but believe me the bookmakers have taken everything you have mentioned into account and more when hanging their number.

**brahmabull117** · 05-19-12, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Yeah, not measuring up to last year doesn't mean he isn't dominant this year as well, but believe me the bookmakers have taken everything you have mentioned into account and more when hanging their number.

Regardless of the fact, - 140 for this game is too low

just to give you an example - Accuscore, which is a very accurate projector of games (just look up their website on all their numbers), predicted Dodgers to have a 2-1 chance of winning this game

I'm not saying they're 100% accurate but that's a huge disparity for a game when Accuscore and Vegas are usually very similar

**hydrosmak** · 05-19-12, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Regardless of the fact, - 140 for this game is too low

Accuscore, which is a very accurate projector of games (just look up their website on all their numbers), predicted Dodgers to have a 2-1 chance of winning this game

Ok, so the number is too low. What does that do? Attract more bets on the LA side. Think maybe they did that on purpose?

**smitch124** · 05-19-12, 09:46 PM

Well you have a right to your opinion and can choose the -140 side, but believe me the books have heard of Kershaw and his dominance at home and his pitching style vs. his home parks' attributes.

**hardball** · 05-19-12, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by hydrosmak

Ok, so the number is too low. What does that do? Attract more bets on the LA side. Think maybe they did that on purpose?

The public liked the Cards/Westbrook at such a high plus number. 62+%

I don't remember the last time I didn't see Kershaw as the public favorite.

**brahmabull117** · 05-19-12, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by hydrosmak

Ok, so the number is too low. What does that do? Attract more bets on the LA side. Think maybe they did that on purpose?

Are you another one of these idiots who thinks that Vegas somehow secretly know whose going to win or lose because they have a magic 8 ball or something?

They have preset power rankings and they base lines on that. The Cards won the title last year and are receiving a lot of respect from the books. It's nothing more than that, stop the conspiracy theories and stop thinking vegas has a magic 8 ball

**No coincidences** · 05-19-12, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Fair points, but we're still complaining about a guy with a low 2 era, sub 0.95 whip and nearly a 4 to 1 K to BB ratio. he's a magnificent pitcher

Who said anything about "complaining"?

**HoulihansTX** · 05-19-12, 09:50 PM

I bet Dodgers B/c I will not see Kershaw -140 for another month. No one asks question with Kershaw -200, but -140 guys question the play.

The price is right biatch.

**No coincidences** · 05-19-12, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by hardball

The public loved the Cards/Westbrook at such a high plus number. 64+%

Honestly don't remember the last time I didn't see Kershaw as the public favorite.

I'm seeing 71% RL/64% ML on Dodgers.

**hydrosmak** · 05-19-12, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by hardball

The public loved the Cards/Westbrook at such a high plus number.

Honestly don't remember the last time I didn't see Kershaw be the public favorite.

Yeah now I am seeing different percentages on other sites. Essentially with the lineup that LA was putting out there they had to post this line. Kershaw himself can only control one side of the game. When you have Abreu in the 3 hole there is some serious deficiencies in the lineup.

**brahmabull117** · 05-19-12, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

I bet Dodgers B/c I will not see Kershaw -140 for another month. No one asks question with Kershaw -200, but -140 guys question the play.

The price is right biatch.

agreed

and that out by Holliday is exactly why I'll back Kershaw at home until the books start making - 200 to - 300 lines. Dude kills the ball the other way and it's not a homerun because that ballpark was just built for Kershaw

If he wins this game today, Dodgers will be 6-1 in his home starts this year and 13-3 last year for a total record of 19-4 (an 80+% winning percentage). I'll back him at home until he stops dominating like this

**hardball** · 05-19-12, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I'm seeing 71% RL/64% ML on Dodgers.

Have to love the huge disparity in resources.

Not at home to check sport options.

I Just pulled up the square Sportsbook.com consensus.

**HoulihansTX** · 05-19-12, 10:01 PM

All of this talk and under was the play. Lol

**hydrosmak** · 05-19-12, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

agreed

and that out by Holliday is exactly why I'll back Kershaw at home until the books start making - 200 to - 300 lines. Dude kills the ball the other way and it's not a homerun because that ballpark was just built for Kershaw

If he wins this game today, Dodgers will be 6-1 in his home starts this year and 13-3 last year for a total record of 19-4 (an 80+% winning percentage). I'll back him at home until he stops dominating like this

So the game is 0-0 and Kershaw finally has to leave the game. How does that -140 look when you have LA bullpen vs STL bullpen?

**brahmabull117** · 05-19-12, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by Balco10

So take the freaking under 6!

Looks like a great call so far, I hope you played it

I won't play a total play in baseball if members from both teams told me they would do everything in their power to make that play be correct. It's the most frustrating form of gambling in the world

**brahmabull117** · 05-19-12, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by hydrosmak

So the game is 0-0 and Kershaw finally has to leave the game. How does that -140 look when you have LA bullpen vs STL bullpen?

Dodgers bullpen/offense at home vs Cardinals bullpen/offense at home is still a decent play. Dodgers are 17-4 at home for a reason

Besides, there's plenty to go in the game

**brahmabull117** · 05-19-12, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

All of this talk and under was the play. Lol

no it wasn't, a total play is NEVER the play in baseball. Total betting is just awful in this sport

if I bet the under, the Dodgers would have won the game 7-0 with 2 meaningless runs in the bottom of the 8th inning

**HoulihansTX** · 05-19-12, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by hydrosmak

So the game is 0-0 and Kershaw finally has to leave the game. How does that -140 look when you have LA bullpen vs STL bullpen?

Nothing wrong with LA bully. Better closer, and set-up man.

**hydrosmak** · 05-19-12, 10:16 PM

How many Dodger/Laker parlay's are sitting out there right now? OH boy....

**brahmabull117** · 05-19-12, 11:23 PM

and this game is exactly why you don't bet totals in baseball

Westbrook dominates the game for 6 innings, 2 runs are a result of a error, he has a couple bad at bats and the cards bullpen sucks, which results in the dodgers scoring 4 runs in a heartbeat

Why do you people still try? I just don't get it, total betting in baseball is a total coinflip. There is no other form of betting that's more unpredictable except for maybe hockey playoffs

Why drive yourself nuts with totals?

**Kalis** · 05-19-12, 11:35 PM

Defending champs Zero . Dodgers

**hardball** · 05-19-12, 11:47 PM

Kershaw: Complete game, shut out. Give credit to you brahbull. -140 beat the closer and was the right side.

**No coincidences** · 05-20-12, 12:26 AM

Nice call.

**starfire** · 05-20-12, 12:27 AM

I've seen Kershaw pitch every game...
On TV

BigBlue ea$y

**brahmabull117** · 05-20-12, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by hardball

Kershaw: Complete game, shut out. Give credit to you brahbull. -140 beat the closer and was the right side.

thanks, curious to see how much longer the Dodger home dominance continues. They're now 18-4 at home

they might be the 2011 Brewers or the 2010 Braves in terms of teams that win home games at just an astonishing rate

**citixen** · 05-20-12, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Backing kershaw at home is one of the most profitable betting strategies around - the man has won something like 17 of his last 21 games at home (in terms of dodgers winning his starts)

-140 is an awfully low line when you consider that and consider how dominant the dodgers have been at home so far this year. Westbrook has pitched well so far but his WHIP is 1.25 and his career era is about 4+. There is literally no chance of him continuing to pitch this well and he will likely come down to earth over next 2 months as he's already given 4 runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts

I like this line a lot

Thanks. I liked Kershaw too and made a good size play on LA.

Win *
Risk/To Win Amount: 636.13 / 457.65 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 19-May-2012
Time Accepted: 5:03:05 PM*(Pacific)
Amount Paid: 1,093.78
Sport/Period: MLB Baseball / Game
Teams: St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Game Date 19-May-2012
Bet Line: Los Angeles Dodgers***1.719
Pitchers: J. Westbrook - must start vs C. Kershaw - must start

**brahmabull117** · 05-20-12, 03:17 AM

Originally posted by citixen

Thanks. I liked Kershaw too and made a good size play on LA.

Win *
Risk/To Win Amount: 636.13 / 457.65 (CAD)
Date Accepted: 19-May-2012
Time Accepted: 5:03:05 PM*(Pacific)
Amount Paid: 1,093.78
Sport/Period: MLB Baseball / Game
Teams: St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Game Date 19-May-2012
Bet Line: Los Angeles Dodgers***1.719
Pitchers: J. Westbrook - must start vs C. Kershaw - must start

I backed Kershaw in his last outing too, I think I'm 4-0 betting on Kershaw games at home since the start of last year. It's nearly an autoplay until he stops dominating like he has been

Verlander is also about to start being an autoplay for me when the tigers offense really wakes up, he's gonna go on like a streak where the tigers go 10-0 or 9-1 in 10 of his starts

**Big Bear** · 05-20-12, 06:31 AM

good call. In baseball it doesn't matter if 100% of money is coming in on a certain side. It has NO impact on the game being played on the field whatsoever.

It's not like the NBA or NFL where games get fixed all the time and you have to worry about fading the public. Thats why i love baseball. Baseball is pure.