Probability of a Run When Two Outs & Bases Loaded

[diondublin]

Approximately, what proportion of the time is one or more run added in MLB when the bases are loaded but there are already two outs?

Also, how about for bases loaded, one out and bases loaded, no outs?

Reasonable estimates welcome, thanks!

[hezawizard]

if I bet against a team with runners on all 3 bases, and 2 out, its 100% run, if I bet on team with runner on 3rd, 2 out its like 20-30%, maybe lower

[Pluthero]

I don't know the answer to your exact question, but in that situation a team will score about 0.7 runs on average.

With one out it's 1.5 and with no outs it's 2.3.

Hope that helps.

[PuckIt]

If you use ESPN Gamecast it will actually tell you the probability of a run based on the current situation.

[blankoblanco]

shouldn't it be pretty similar to whatever the average OBP is? the question is mainly about if the batter gets on base or not

though if i had to guess i'd say the actual number is a little higher than that, despite the fact that there will obviously be no intentional walks in this situation like there might be in others. i believe this would be the case because if there are 3 on base, that may mean the pitcher is not pitching his best stuff, he may be out of his comfort zone, and there is arguably more pressure on him than the batter

[EXhoosier10]

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

In the second table, you'll see that from 1993 - 2010, when bases are loaded and there were two outs, a run scored 33.4% of the time.

[diondublin]

Thanks very much, you guys, for the help!

[HoulihansTX]

If its the Padres some where around 0 -1.5%

[rumnblack]

If its the Padres some where around 0 -1.5%