UFC 206 - Anthony Pettis vs Max Holloway (December 10th, 2016)

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 12-10-16, 11:38 AM

pretty fired up about this event

last night's event was of little interest to me

nice card top to bottom

Holloway should take care of business

**firekillex** · 12-10-16, 11:53 AM

Should be a solid night of fights, got Holloway as well Pettis has to much on his mind. Sucks because he was looking like a super elite talent at 55 just a year ago

**Thrilla** · 12-10-16, 11:59 AM

**Shagdogy** · 12-10-16, 12:09 PM

John Makdessi vs. Lando Vannata: I cap Vannata around -185. If you don't remember, go watch the Vannata/Ferguson fight. Great fight. Vannata is very busy. Has a wide range of strikes. Very confident. And probably best thing is he is 24 and showing huge learning curve. Makdessi is a tough test for anyone in this division, but Vannata should have the tools to throw enough at him. Makdessi will hit Vannata, but his chin is good (he fought Ferguson on only 2 weeks notice) and he struggled most with Ferguson's long jab which Makdessi doesn't have nearly that reach. This line is probably about right, but Vannata has some serious talent and this could be a coming out party. Bet the up and comer here for small/medium play.

**strictlypaypal** · 12-10-16, 12:11 PM

We going $500 on Kennedy tonight boys.

Also have cowboy on a last of a 3 team parlay. $200 to win $500. Should I hedge?

**Unwritten Law** · 12-10-16, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by strictlypaypal

We going $500 on Kennedy tonight boys.

Also have cowboy on a last of a 3 team parlay. $200 to win $500. Should I hedge?

I would let this one ride with the Cowboy. If this were a bigger payout 2k+ or so then I would probably hedge but that's based on your bankroll and how conservative you play. Cowboy has been on a roll and Matt Brown will get hurt and crumble ITD.

**Thrilla** · 12-10-16, 12:27 PM

- Gabe Morency and GambLou preview UFC 206 and give their picks between Anthony Pettis vs. Max Holloway, Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown, Tim Kennedy vs. Kevin Gastelum, plus more on MMA Meltdown.

- Paul Shaughnessy (@PaulShag) and Cody Saftic (@CJSaftic) break down all the action for UFC 206 happening Saturday, December 10 and featuring a an interim featherweight title fight between Max Holloway and Anthony "Showtime" Pettis.

**UncleChael** · 12-10-16, 12:44 PM

Taking Anthony 'Showtime' Pettis tonight.. Y'all nuts. Lets getttt itt. Im out this ho.

**terpkeg** · 12-10-16, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by strictlypaypal

We going $500 on Kennedy tonight boys.

Also have cowboy on a last of a 3 team parlay. $200 to win $500. Should I hedge?

No. Unless $200 too large of bet for you and you are correcting mistake. Why pay juice both ways?

**TPowell** · 12-10-16, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

John Makdessi vs. Lando Vannata: I cap Vannata around -185. If you don't remember, go watch the Vannata/Ferguson fight. Great fight. Vannata is very busy. Has a wide range of strikes. Very confident. And probably best thing is he is 24 and showing huge learning curve. Makdessi is a tough test for anyone in this division, but Vannata should have the tools to throw enough at him. Makdessi will hit Vannata, but his chin is good (he fought Ferguson on only 2 weeks notice) and he struggled most with Ferguson's long jab which Makdessi doesn't have nearly that reach. This line is probably about right, but Vannata has some serious talent and this could be a coming out party. Bet the up and comer here for small/medium play.

good call last night pal. Am I wrong thinking Lando will turtle Makdessi up before this fight is over? Guy broke his jaw already and his chin isn't great against a young crazy stud like Lando who can take a beating but gives one in return as well. I can't see Makdessi sticking and moving for 3 rounds without getting caught

**Shagdogy** · 12-10-16, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

good call last night pal. Am I wrong thinking Lando will turtle Makdessi up before this fight is over? Guy broke his jaw already and his chin isn't great against a young crazy stud like Lando who can take a beating but gives one in return as well. I can't see Makdessi sticking and moving for 3 rounds without getting caught

Makdessi is tough. Cerrone didn't turtle him up he just broke his jaw. Making Makdessi quit or go down is a tall order. Vannata had decent power at the beginning of Ferguson fight but ate some shots and probably had a bit of adrenaline dump and his power was gone. I think he will have much more in his tank this fight. Gonna be a tough one for Makdessi but he is up for it. I like Vannata to win but I wouldn't be surprised that he has to work for it. But he is young and if he can maintain his cardio like he showed in the first round of the Ferguson fight then I think his confidence will grow and he could put on a show. The potential is absolutely on the side of Vannata IMO.

**TPowell** · 12-10-16, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Makdessi is tough. Cerrone didn't turtle him up he just broke his jaw. Making Makdessi quit or go down is a tall order. Vannata had decent power at the beginning of Ferguson fight but ate some shots and probably had a bit of adrenaline dump and his power was gone. I think he will have much more in his tank this fight. Gonna be a tough one for Makdessi but he is up for it. I like Vannata to win but I wouldn't be surprised that he has to work for it. But he is young and if he can maintain his cardio like he showed in the first round of the Ferguson fight then I think his confidence will grow and he could put on a show. The potential is absolutely on the side of Vannata IMO.

Read online this is Vannata's first full camp since 2014.... that would be a good sign IMO

**Shagdogy** · 12-10-16, 01:20 PM

Speaking of young guys with potential...

Matthew Lopez vs. Mitch Gagnon: I cap this one at -180 for Lopez, so I feel there's good value on him. Lopez is longer than Gangon, has more varied attacks than Gagnon, and has a lot of confidence. The loss to Yahya 5 months ago in his UFC debut probably taught him some things and I think he will come back with improved cardio now that his debut is out of the way and showcase his skills. Yahya has great BJJ and had trouble getting the submission against Lopez when he was fresh. It wasn't until he gassed that he could sink it in. Gagnon on the other hand has already shown his potential and is well beyond it. Hasn't fought in 2 years and is coming off ACL surgery in his 30's. Gagnon must get the takedown in order to win, and his gas as well as explosiveness could both be very reduced from his prime at this point. Give me the skilled, confident, young guy in this one to make the most of his opportunity in his 2nd UFC fight. Getting him as the underdog here is a steal. Don't be scared of the line. The right play is on Lopez.

Edit: If you worry that Lopez puts himself in too many precarious situations (which he sometimes does) then hedge Gagnon by sub. Prob not great value though.

**Shagdogy** · 12-10-16, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Read online this is Vannata's first full camp since 2014.... that would be a good sign IMO

Yes. If his cardio is on point then he should get better and better as the fight goes on and he gets comfortable.

**TPowell** · 12-10-16, 01:28 PM

I was liking Lopez some in DraftKings. Good value and I think he has a good shot. Will have to look at it a little more. Hard to judge anything from Yahya fight outside of Lopez isn't too bad on the ground. Its Rani Yahya lol

**Shagdogy** · 12-10-16, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I was liking Lopez some in DraftKings. Good value and I think he has a good shot. Will have to look at it a little more. Hard to judge anything from Yahya fight outside of Lopez isn't too bad on the ground. Its Rani Yahya lol

Yahya solid on the ground. And how much credit are you giving 32 year old Mitch Gagnon off an ACL surgery and 2 years out of the cage?

**TPowell** · 12-10-16, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Yahya solid on the ground. And how much credit are you giving 32 year old Mitch Gagnon off an ACL surgery and 2 years out of the cage?

That's what I'm saying. Yahya way better than solid. He's elite on the ground. Gagnon is very solid fighter but off ACL surgery and 2 years is tough. Dog or pass IMO

**Ty$** · 12-10-16, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

That's what I'm saying. Yahya way better than solid. He's elite on the ground. Gagnon is very solid fighter but off ACL surgery and 2 years is tough. Dog or pass IMO

Good analysis 🤑🤑

**Ty$** · 12-10-16, 01:46 PM

This card could be real dog heavy.... I think both Cub and Brown have better chances than the lines read.

**Ty$** · 12-10-16, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I think Khavilov and Makovsky top control their way to decision wins. Ortiz should struggle against an imposing style wrestler like Mak like usual. Khabilov SHOULD be able to get it done but not risking -money on this guy again. He's burned me too many times. Think Cirkunov can bully Krylov and drag him to deeper waters and drown him. An early takedown and top control probably zaps quite a bit of Krylov's power and then its 1 way traffic. I feel like this fight could last weird enough

Agree already have these 2 in prop parlays. Also like Letourneuo by DEC

**Ty$** · 12-10-16, 01:52 PM

Hugo got your plays up yet?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-10-16, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by strictlypaypal

We going $500 on Kennedy tonight boys.

Also have cowboy on a last of a 3 team parlay. $200 to win $500. Should I hedge?

I would at least consider playing Matt Brown ITD at (+483) as 18 of his 20 wins and Cowboy has been finished in the UFC.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-10-16, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

Hugo got your plays up yet?

Not yet.

**strictlypaypal** · 12-10-16, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by terpkeg

No. Unless $200 too large of bet for you and you are correcting mistake. Why pay juice both ways?

No. but $100 on brown would either guarantee me $400 or not paying anything. But I'll see what happens with the Kennedy fight first. Just laid $650 to win $500 at -130 odds

**JIBBBY** · 12-10-16, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I would at least consider playing Matt Brown ITD at (+483) as 18 of his 20 wins and Cowboy has been finished in the UFC.

I'm going LARGE on Cowboy Cerone myself and ITD.. I absolutely think Brown is washed up and Cowboy will light him up standing and get the KO or Sub him as the fight on goes.. Cowboy can take this fight to the ground or keep it standing if he wants. Cowboy is the better fighter in all areas period..

What's funny about these 2 guys are they both are vulnerable to body shots.. Wonder if that plays a roll in this fight? I could see Cowboy landing a body kick and folding Brown maybe?..

Main Card

Donald
Cerrone
"Cowboy"
vs
Matt
Brown
"The Immortal"

UNITED STATES
Country
USA

31-7-0, 1NC
Record
22-15-0

23%
KO/TKO
59%

52%
SUB
32%

26%
DEC
9%

73 in
Height
72 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

73 in
Reach
75 in

40 in
Leg Reach
43 in

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-10-16, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I'm going LARGE on Cowboy Cerone myself and ITD.. I absolutely think Brown is washed up and Cowboy will light him up standing and get the KO or Sub him as the fight on goes.. Cowboy can take this fight to the ground or keep it standing if he wants. Cowboy is the better fight period..

What's funny about these 2 guys are they both are vulnerable to body shots.. Wonder if that plays a roll in this fight? I could see Cowboy landing a body kick and folding Brown maybe?..

Main Card

Donald
Cerrone
"Cowboy"
vs
Matt
Brown
"The Immortal"

UNITED STATES
Country
USA

31-7-0, 1NC
Record
22-15-0

23%
KO/TKO
59%

52%
SUB
32%

26%
DEC
9%

73 in
Height
72 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

73 in
Reach
75 in

40 in
Leg Reach
43 in

Got Cowboy big here as well but I don't think it's impossible that he loses. Think he will get an early TD here and should dominate.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-10-16, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by GoBlue77

trust me. bet Gas. and this is coming from someone that from the surface was huge on Kennedy initially. Gas and Holloway!

Going to tail you here Blue. Initially wasn't going to play much on this fight but I trust your read. Best of luck to us

**Shagdogy** · 12-10-16, 02:45 PM

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Drew Dober: Another fight with value on the underdog. I think Dober should be about -150-175. Dober has the clear advantage on the feet. He moves better. He's more aggressive, and has more power. Throws more combos and has more variety. OAM has to lay n pray or sub to win this fight but there's one problem... Dober has been getting better and better at defending takedowns and even landing some of his own. Give me Dober.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-10-16, 02:52 PM

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis Picks:
Zach Makovsky Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Rustam Khabilov Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Lando Vannata Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mitch Gagnon Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Valerie Letourneau Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier Round 3 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Nikita Krylov Round 2 TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Jordan Mein Round 1 TKO (Elbows)
Kelvin Gastelum Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Doo Ho Choi Round 1 KO (Flying Knee)
Donald Cerrone Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Max Holloway Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46 x2)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-10-16, 02:52 PM

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Donald Cerrone ($9,300)
Max Holloway ($8,800)
Valerie Letourneau ($8,400)
Misha Cirkunov ($8,100)
Kelvin Gastelum ($7,900)
Cub Swanson ($7,300)

Risk: 2u

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Jordan Mein ($9,000)
Doo Ho Choi ($8,900)
Lando Vannata ($8,700)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier ($8,200)
Nikita Krylov ($8,100)
Justin Saggo ($7,100)

Risk: .4u

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-10-16, 02:53 PM

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Makovsky vs. Ortiz
Ortiz Round 3 (+2250) .2u

Fight #2: Khabilov vs. Saggo
Saggo ITD (+415) 1.25u

Hedge:
Khabilov Decision (+110) 1u

Fight #3: Vannata vs. Makdessi
Vannata (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
Vannata+Makdessi Under 2.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u
Vannata -3.5 (+100) 1u
Vannata ITD (+165) 1u
Vannata/Makdessi Draw (+6500) .2u

Hedge:
Makdessi Decision (+351) 1.5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Lopez vs. Gagnon
Lopez+Gagnon Under 2.5 (+130) 1u
Gagnon -3.5 (+135) 2u
Gagnon Submission (+405) .25u
Lopez/Gagnon Draw (+6000) .2u

Fight #5: Letourneau vs. Pereira (DEBUT)
Pereira Round 3 (+1600) .25u

Fight #6: Aubin-Mercier vs. Dober
Aubin-Mercier Submission (+490) 1u
Aubin-Mercier Round 3 (+1550) .25u

Fight #7: Krylov vs. Cirkunov
Krylov+Cirkunov Under 1.5 Rounds (-120) 2.4u to win 2u
Krylov (+115) 1u
Krylov/Cirkunov Draw (+7000) .2u

Hedge:
Cirkunov Round 3 (+1150) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Mein vs. Weber Meek (DEBUT)
Mein+Weber Meek Under 1.5 (+110) 2u
Mein KO/TKO (+205) 1u
Mein Round 1 (+275) .5u

Fight #9: Kennedy vs. Gastelum
Gastelum (+120) 1.5u
Gastelum Decision (+240) 1u

Hedge:
Kennedy Sub (+535) 1u

Fight #10: Choi vs. Swanson
Choi/Swanson Under 1.5 (+140) 2u
Swanson (+210) 1u
Swanson Decision (+440) 1.5u
Swanson KO/TKO (+850) .5u
Swanson Submission (+900) .5u
Swanson Round 3 (+2100) 1u
Choi/Swanson Draw (+7500) .2u

Hedge(s):
Choi ITD (+100) 3u
Choi Round 3 (+850) .5u

Fight #11: Cerrone vs. Brown
Cerrone/Brown Under 2.5 (-105) 3.15u to win 3u
Cerrone Decision (+255) 2u
Cerrone Submission (+404) 1u
Cerrone Round 2 (+525) .5u
Cerrone Round 3 (+925) .5u
Cerrone/Brown Draw (+6500) .2u

Hedge:
Brown ITD (+375) 1u
Brown KO (+525) 2u
Brown Submission (+1500) .5u

Fight #12: Holloway vs. Pettis
Holloway -5.5 (+115) 6.5u
Holloway Decision (+165) 1u
Holloway Unanimous Decision (+255) 2u
Holloway Round 3 (+1000) 1.25u
Holloway Round 4 (+1200) .75u
Holloway Round 5 (+1600) .75u
Holloway/Pettis Draw (+6500) .3u

Hedge(s):
Pettis Submission (+676) 3u
Pettis Round 1 (+975) 1u
Pettis Split/Majority Decision (+1050) 1u
Pettis Round 2 (+1175) .75u

Straight Parlays:
Makovsky+Ortiz Over 2.5/Khabilov+Saggo Over 2.5 (+101) 2u
Makovsky+Ortiz Over 2.5/Holloway (+107) 2u
Cerrone/Holloway (+107) 2u
Letourneau+Pereira Over 2.5/Cerrone (+109) 3u
Kennedy+Gastelum Go Distance/Cerrone (+116) 1u
Khabilov+Saggo Over 2.5/Aubin-Mercier+Dober Over 2.5 (+135) 2u
Vannata/Mein (+150) 1u
Khabilov+Saggo O2.5/Letourneau+Pereira O2.5/Aubin-Mercier+Dober O2.5 (+230) .5u
Vannata+Makdessi U2.5/Mein+Weber Meek U1.5/Cerrone+Brown U2.5 (+681) .25u
Cerrone+Brown Under 2.5/Swanson/Gastelum (+1326) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Mein+Weber Meek Under 1.5/Holloway Unanimous Decision (+628) .5u
Krylov KO/Holloway -5.5 (+770) .25u
Krylov ITD/Cerrone KO (+921) .5u
Vanatta Decision/Gagnon Decision (+1014) .25u
Swanson Decision/Gastelum Decision (+1752) .5u
Krylov Decision/Holloway Decision (+2350) .25u
Saggo Decision/Cirkunov Decision (+2797) .25u
Gagnon Submission/Dober KO (+3435) .25u
Kennedy Submission/Pettis Submission (+4828) .1u

Full Card Props:
Over 3.5 Fights End in Submission (+328) 1u
Over 4.5 Fights End in Submission (+992) .25u
Pettis Wins Fastest Sub (+1200) .5u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Page/Holloway (+102) 1u
Lewis/Cerrone (+105) 1u
Letourneau+Pereira Over 2.5/Cruz (+122) 1u
Lewis/Holloway (+135) 2u

Open Parlays:
Choi Decision/Open .5u
Cerrone/Open 1u

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-10-16, 02:57 PM

Picks, Draftkings, and Plays Posted. Good luck everybody!

**JIBBBY** · 12-10-16, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

pretty fired up about this event

last night's event was of little interest to me

nice card top to bottom

Holloway should take care of business

Agreed this card is stacked..

There are good fights up and down the card, looking forward to checking it out!!

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 12-10-16, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Agreed this card is stacked..

There are good fights up and down the card, looking forward to checking it out!!

yep this is an under the radar stacked event

many fights peak my interest

I see you are on Cerrone large and I totally agree!!

Let's get that money

**Shagdogy** · 12-10-16, 03:50 PM

3u on Vannata -185 over Makdessi to win 1.62
2u on Lopez +131 over Gagnon to win 2.62

More on the way.