UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 (March 04, 2017)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-21-17, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Ferg a better striker than Michael Johnson? He has great pressure for sure, but did you watch Johnson vs. Poirier? Johnson has some speed and crispness that Ferg doesn't.

I wouldn't say Ferguson is better, they are pretty different. I think Johnson has the fastest hands in the division but Ferguson is more diverse with his variety.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-21-17, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

IDK Fire... I can't argue your points but I've seen El Cucuy come forward and be aggressive like the terminator in fights and Khabib is a very skilled counter striker.. That plays right into his wheel house.. Cowboy came forward and got dropped..

I just can see Khabib countering Tony's aggression.. I'm leaning Khabib just slightly.. Like I said though I just don't have a great feel for this fight..

Khabib by KO or El Cucuy by submission or decision are my initial leans..

Could you provide a link to Nurmy's fight with Cowboy? I'm still convinced that it never happened. That seems like a reasonable way to hedge it.

**Bad Tattoo** · 02-21-17, 11:01 AM

Initial leans are Woodley and Khabib, I hope ferguson wins though! Will probably pass on this card though..

**MMANick** · 02-21-17, 12:13 PM

I took Woodley in the first matchup with the dog price and now I think Wonderboy is going to win a horrible shitfest decision. He'll revert back to the boring point fighting Karate practitioner of old. In my opinion there shouldn't be a rematch, I thought Woodley won the first scrap. I'm leaning Running boy by decision.

I like Khabib in the co main. El Cucuy may be my favorite fighter, but I just see Khabib taking him down and beating on him. Everybody underestimates Khabib's strength until he gets ahold of them. He'll score a TD in basically every round here, I think.

I'll lean Overeem over Hunt, but that's all it is, a slight lean. Overeem could come in and take Hunt down and beat him up there, which is what I favor to happen here. But, it's impossible to trust Overeem's chin and Hunt could easily put him out the first time he lands. Like I said, slight lean towards Overeem, but it's very slight.

I like Rashad over Kelly. But, you can't count out Kelly. He has overachieved in the UFC and I think it's because the guy has no quit in him. If Rashad isn't sharp or is shot at all, Kelly will beat him up, but I think Rashad has enough in the tank and should be the superior striker here and just be way more athletic than Dan.

I'm going Vannata over Teymur. I think Vannata has some next level skills. He's a contender in my book already. I'm Big on Teymur as well as he's an exciting striker with some pop in his hands. Both are solid prospects, I just think Vannata is a blue chipper.

I'm extremely upset that Duffee had to pull out of his fight with Godbeer as I'm a huge Duffee fan. I think Godbeer stops Spitz early with strikes as he's fought the better competition and Spitz is making his debut on short notice.

I'm going Bektic over Elkins, although this is a good test as Elkins is scrappy and a legit veteran. Bektic is another blue chip prospect. I see him getting Elkins down and beating him up. Elkins TD isn't good and it'll be the difference here.

I favor Craig over Nobre. I was impressed with both guys debuts, but I think Craig is more well rounded. Plus, his Jiu Jitsu is very good and he won't be worked over on the ground as easy as Rountree was. Craig also seems to have that "it" factor to me. Just a tough dude that will work through adversity. It also doesn't hurt that he's a huge dude.

Still reviewing Alcantara/Sanders and Tybura/Henrique. 50/50 on Alcantara/Sanders and early lean for Tybura as of now.

**Shagdogy** · 02-21-17, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by MMANick

I'm going Bektic over Elkins, although this is a good test as Elkins is scrappy and a legit veteran. Bektic is another blue chip prospect. I see him getting Elkins down and beating him up. Elkins TD isn't good and it'll be the difference here.
I favor Craig over Nobre. I was impressed with both guys debuts, but I think Craig is more well rounded. Plus, his Jiu Jitsu is very good and he won't be worked over on the ground as easy as Rountree was. Craig also seems to have that "it" factor to me. Just a tough dude that will work through adversity. It also doesn't hurt that he's a huge dude.

Nobre? You mean Tyson Pedro, yah? I'm with you that Craig is a big dude with "it" factor, but Tyson Pedro may be even bigger. He's not taller, but he is a large man. Will be interesting to see them at weigh-ins. Have you watched Paul Craig vs. Karl Moore yet? Check that one out... he spent a long time on his back in round 1 with Moore controlling him. I favor Tyson Pedro in this fight because he never fails to get in deep and drag fight to the ground and take top position, while Craig is so confident in his BJJ he doesn't mind ending up on his back. Once on top, Pedro has a real knack for getting mount position and he gets busy with strikes until guys give their backs up (just like Craig did quickly vs Moore when he got mount) and then he sinks in RNC. The big question mark here IMO is can Craig sub Pedro from bottom? If not, Pedro takes it.

I'm with you on Bektic. He has to be favored to win this fight, but Elkins is a serious test. I do think Bektic can get top position and grind on Elkins, but I kind of wonder why even bother? If Bektic can stay in striking range and avoid clinch (easier said than done) he will hold a massive speed and power advantage with his hands. If Elkins is successful at dictating his kind of fight, which he usually is, then I think it could be a close one, but if Bektic finds a way to stay at range, Elkins is in trouble.

Good luck man!

**firekillex** · 02-21-17, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Could you provide a link to Nurmy's fight with Cowboy? I'm still convinced that it never happened. That seems like a reasonable way to hedge it.

They never fought.. would be a good scrap though

but I'd need literally +1000 or more to bet Khabib by KO, I could only see him winning by decision or submission here.. he could get a tko from mount or something but I don't think that's to likely, Ferguson has a much much better chance of landing a KO blow then Khabib does .

Wonder where the prop prices will be at for this fight, always tough prop betting tony because he can win by any method.. I think this fight will go over 3 rounds though

**MMANick** · 02-21-17, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Nobre? You mean Tyson Pedro, yah? I'm with you that Craig is a big dude with "it" factor, but Tyson Pedro may be even bigger. He's not taller, but he is a large man. Will be interesting to see them at weigh-ins. Have you watched Paul Craig vs. Karl Moore yet? Check that one out... he spent a long time on his back in round 1 with Moore controlling him. I favor Tyson Pedro in this fight because he never fails to get in deep and drag fight to the ground and take top position, while Craig is so confident in his BJJ he doesn't mind ending up on his back. Once on top, Pedro has a real knack for getting mount position and he gets busy with strikes until guys give their backs up (just like Craig did quickly vs Moore when he got mount) and then he sinks in RNC. The big question mark here IMO is can Craig sub Pedro from bottom? If not, Pedro takes it.

I'm with you on Bektic. He has to be favored to win this fight, but Elkins is a serious test. I do think Bektic can get top position and grind on Elkins, but I kind of wonder why even bother? If Bektic can stay in striking range and avoid clinch (easier said than done) he will hold a massive speed and power advantage with his hands. If Elkins is successful at dictating his kind of fight, which he usually is, then I think it could be a close one, but if Bektic finds a way to stay at range, Elkins is in trouble.

Good luck man!

Lol I combined two fighters to be one there. Sorry about that. Yeah, both are huge dudes. I was actually surprised with Craig's striking in his debut. The odds should be tight here, but I like him to get the job done!

**MMANick** · 02-21-17, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

They never fought.. would be a good scrap though

but I'd need literally +1000 or more to bet Khabib by KO, I could only see him winning by decision or submission here.. he could get a tko from mount or something but I don't think that's to likely, Ferguson has a much much better chance of landing a KO blow then Khabib does .

Wonder where the prop prices will be at for this fight, always tough prop betting tony because he can win by any method.. I think this fight will go over 3 rounds though

I don't hate Khabib to win by TKO/KO. I think it's a pretty damn good possibility. He should get mount or get Tony's back at some point and he'll be raining down heavy shots.

**JIBBBY** · 02-21-17, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Could you provide a link to Nurmy's fight with Cowboy? I'm still convinced that it never happened. That seems like a reasonable way to hedge it.

Hugo I completely confused Khabib with Masvidal this entire time posting.. Khabib never fought Cowboy.. I don't know what I was thinking.. Complete brain fart on my part...

WOW!!! Jibbby fail.. Very embarassing..

Khabib is not a better striker then EL Cucuy.. I'll take El Cucuy..

I feel like going back and deleting all my posts.. I think I will...

El Cucuy much better standing, Khabib a ground stud...

**JIBBBY** · 02-21-17, 01:06 PM

I just deleted every single post of mine on Khabib in this thread .. I honestly confused him with Masvidal the entire time.. They look the same and I just wasn't paying attention.....

FORGIVE ME FELLAS.. Fire, Hugo and others you are all right about El Cucuy being better standing..

The question should be in this fight - can Khabib take down Tony and control him on the ground?

**Shagdogy** · 02-21-17, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by MMANick

Lol I combined two fighters to be one there. Sorry about that. Yeah, both are huge dudes. I was actually surprised with Craig's striking in his debut. The odds should be tight here, but I like him to get the job done!

Craig is very confident in his striking. He keeps that chin up high though, just hasn't paid for it yet. Haven't seen anything from Pedro to suggest he's the guy to test Craig's chin. My biggest reservation with Craig is that I don't see him having the takedown defense. I agree... tight odds.

Another interesting thing - Craig has said that he doesn't watch any tape of his opponents and he continues to train out of his original gym in Scotland. Meanwhile, Pedro has come over to JacksonWink for this camp, so you KNOW he will be watching tape and coming in with a game plan specifically designed for Craig. Also, he'll have been training with some of the best around. I think Craig will need some serious natural talent if he's gonna keep his run going against higher level guys in the UFC without moving camps or watching tape, but he just might have that talent. This is the most excited I've been for a fightpass fight in a loooong time.

**MMANick** · 02-21-17, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Craig is very confident in his striking. He keeps that chin up high though, just hasn't paid for it yet. Haven't seen anything from Pedro to suggest he's the guy to test Craig's chin. My biggest reservation with Craig is that I don't see him having the takedown defense. I agree... tight odds.

Another interesting thing - Craig has said that he doesn't watch any tape of his opponents and he continues to train out of his original gym in Scotland. Meanwhile, Pedro has come over to JacksonWink for this camp, so you KNOW he will be watching tape and coming in with a game plan specifically designed for Craig. Also, he'll have been training with some of the best around. I think Craig will need some serious natural talent if he's gonna keep his run going against higher level guys in the UFC without moving camps or watching tape, but he just might have that talent. This is the most excited I've been for a fightpass fight in a loooong time.

We'll have an Internet drink together while watching, my friend. This is actually a pretty interesting card in general. Hopefully it'll be as entertaining as Sundays event!!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-21-17, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Nobre? You mean Tyson Pedro, yah? I'm with you that Craig is a big dude with "it" factor, but Tyson Pedro may be even bigger. He's not taller, but he is a large man. Will be interesting to see them at weigh-ins. Have you watched Paul Craig vs. Karl Moore yet? Check that one out... he spent a long time on his back in round 1 with Moore controlling him. I favor Tyson Pedro in this fight because he never fails to get in deep and drag fight to the ground and take top position, while Craig is so confident in his BJJ he doesn't mind ending up on his back. Once on top, Pedro has a real knack for getting mount position and he gets busy with strikes until guys give their backs up (just like Craig did quickly vs Moore when he got mount) and then he sinks in RNC. The big question mark here IMO is can Craig sub Pedro from bottom? If not, Pedro takes it.

I'm with you on Bektic. He has to be favored to win this fight, but Elkins is a serious test. I do think Bektic can get top position and grind on Elkins, but I kind of wonder why even bother? If Bektic can stay in striking range and avoid clinch (easier said than done) he will hold a massive speed and power advantage with his hands. If Elkins is successful at dictating his kind of fight, which he usually is, then I think it could be a close one, but if Bektic finds a way to stay at range, Elkins is in trouble.

Good luck man!

I think Craig can definitely get a sub off his back. Don't most of his wins come from Triangles and Guillotines?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-21-17, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I just deleted every single post of mine on Khabib in this thread .. I honestly confused him with Masvidal the entire time.. They look the same and I just wasn't paying attention.....

FORGIVE ME FELLAS.. Fire, Hugo and others you are all right about El Cucuy being better standing..

The question should be in this fight - can Khabib take down Tony and control him on the ground?

Happens to the best of us. We all makes little mistakes now and again

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-21-17, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Craig is very confident in his striking. He keeps that chin up high though, just hasn't paid for it yet. Haven't seen anything from Pedro to suggest he's the guy to test Craig's chin. My biggest reservation with Craig is that I don't see him having the takedown defense. I agree... tight odds.

Another interesting thing - Craig has said that he doesn't watch any tape of his opponents and he continues to train out of his original gym in Scotland. Meanwhile, Pedro has come over to JacksonWink for this camp, so you KNOW he will be watching tape and coming in with a game plan specifically designed for Craig. Also, he'll have been training with some of the best around. I think Craig will need some serious natural talent if he's gonna keep his run going against higher level guys in the UFC without moving camps or watching tape, but he just might have that talent. This is the most excited I've been for a fightpass fight in a loooong time.

Guys who rely on submission grappling from the bottom are generally unsuccessful in the UFC since they have to win by sub to get the victory.

**MMANick** · 02-21-17, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think Craig can definitely get a sub off his back. Don't most of his wins come from Triangles and Guillotines?

I could see a guillotine here for sure. I could also see him scoring a KD and jumping on a choke right away. Butttt, this isn't by any means a blowout.

**JIBBBY** · 02-21-17, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Happens to the best of us. We all makes little mistakes now and again

I've never had that kind of mistake in all my years of posting on SBR.. This one tops the list..

.. Man enough to admit it though..

Wasn't paying attention to names and thought Masvidal was fighting El Cucuy... Confused the fighters looks with one another.... Ouch....

Gotta admit that would be a crazy match up though

...

**PaperTrail07** · 02-21-17, 02:51 PM

Nurg is the one fighter the unorthodox shit won't work on IMO....that spinning shit and or flying knees will jus cause him to end up on his back......then he will waste all his energy trying to get up which may or may not happen......TF is so skilled I expect probs for Nurg...but he will solve em...

**PaperTrail07** · 02-21-17, 02:52 PM

Yeah...don't pull guard -EVER LOL...

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Guys who rely on submission grappling from the bottom are generally unsuccessful in the UFC since they have to win by sub to get the victory.

**strictlypaypal** · 02-21-17, 03:01 PM

god damn i just can't cap this fight. so many variables especially with ferguson. this is the one fight where we find out how legit and how "heavy" khabib actually is on the ground. he will take ferg down but he's going to have to be alert at all times even being on top of ferg. but i do think khabib is the greatest ground and pound of all time, i don't think thats a joke. this is just a crazy fight

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-21-17, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Hugo I completely confused Khabib with Masvidal this entire time posting.. Khabib never fought Cowboy.. I don't know what I was thinking.. Complete brain fart on my part...

WOW!!! Jibbby fail.. Very embarassing..

Khabib is not a better striker then EL Cucuy.. I'll take El Cucuy..

I feel like going back and deleting all my posts.. I think I will...

El Cucuy much better standing, Khabib a ground stud...

For what it's worth I think Masvidal vs. Ferguson would be very closely contested on the feet and I would give the technical advantage to Masvidal.

**JIBBBY** · 02-21-17, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

For what it's worth I think Masvidal vs. Ferguson would be very closely contested on the feet and I would give the technical advantage to Masvidal.

Thanks Hugo that's what I was saying in my posts..

...

**JIBBBY** · 02-21-17, 03:31 PM

With all that crap being said I'm going with El Cucuy in this match up!!!!

I don't think El Cucuy will be controlled on the ground, he rolls out of stuff like no other fighter and is pretty crafty on the ground himself.. El Cucuy crazy style of striking should be enough to catch Khabib at some point standing and probably drop him..

IN ON EL CUCUY!!!

$100.00

$160.00

Pending

3/4/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Tony Ferguson +160* vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

**UncleChael** · 02-21-17, 03:39 PM

"My style is the best that's out there, man. It's free flowing, unorthodox, and it's snappy. That's snap down city baby, and what we do is when you come into my city, you get lost unless you know the detour routes. This kid ain't gonna touch me." - Tony Ferguson

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-21-17, 03:42 PM

Definitely watch out for live betting too. I think Khabib will win the first round or two so we could get some tasty live odds

**PaperTrail07** · 02-21-17, 04:01 PM

lol jibbbby......like Glover over that Alaskan Black GUy.....Just take Nurg here TRUST ME ONE TIME LOL...

Originally posted by JIBBBY

With all that crap being said I'm going with El Cucuy in this match up!!!!

I don't think El Cucuy will be controlled on the ground, he rolls out of stuff like no other fighter and is pretty crafty on the ground himself.. El Cucuy crazy style of striking should be enough to catch Khabib at some point standing and probably drop him..

IN ON EL CUCUY!!!

$100.00

$160.00

Pending

3/4/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Tony Ferguson +160* vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

**firekillex** · 02-21-17, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Definitely watch out for live betting too. I think Khabib will win the first round or two so we could get some tasty live odds

agreed

**PaperTrail07** · 02-21-17, 04:03 PM

I don't doubt anything TF does or his skills......I just think the ground game is the key here....I believe his best chance of victory is an ARMBAR.....guy is so crafty....but Khabib WONT BE DENIED>....I don't think he would even tap...

**PaperTrail07** · 02-21-17, 04:04 PM

After Khabib takes the belt...MCG will slowly Disappear from MMA....

**firekillex** · 02-21-17, 04:05 PM

dont gotta tap to Big fergs d'arce , hell be sleeping in under 10 seconds
first shot he misses and ferguson sprawls on hell sink that in like a snake

**JIBBBY** · 02-21-17, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

lol jibbbby......like Glover over that Alaskan Black GUy.....Just take Nurg here TRUST ME ONE TIME LOL...

No way Paper!!!. Never betting against Tony Ferguson again until he loses.. That guy has been winning me money for a while now..

If he fought Masvidal that's about the only guy I would consider fading him against..

**PaperTrail07** · 02-21-17, 04:11 PM

Masvidals win over cowboy? don't let that get in your head....Cowboy is super aggressive and he fought Mas (counter fighter).....while I picked Cowboy it does not surprise me he won there....lets not forget due it essential INACTIVITY bc the other guy didn't walk in , he lost to Bendo, Larkin, and Iaquinta....his wins are not amazing...I would take TF in a heartbeat over Masvidal...

Originally posted by JIBBBY

No way Paper!!!. Never betting against Tony Ferguson again until he loses.. That guy has been winning me money for a while now..

If he fought Masvidal that's about the only guy I would consider fading him against..

**PaperTrail07** · 02-21-17, 04:13 PM

Don't Say I Didn't Warn you LOL...JK

Originally posted by JIBBBY

No way Paper!!!. Never betting against Tony Ferguson again until he loses.. That guy has been winning me money for a while now..

If he fought Masvidal that's about the only guy I would consider fading him against..

**Shagdogy** · 02-21-17, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think Craig can definitely get a sub off his back. Don't most of his wins come from Triangles and Guillotines?

A lot of triangles and armbars. The problem here is that Pedro is very large, also a good grappler, and is a top position guy on the mat. If they were fighting in a gi I would say Craig has even shot to pull those subs, but a big strong guy who is most comfortable on top is VERY hard to sub with triangles and armbars, especially once sweaty. Pedro will walk into the cage dripping sweat if he knows whats good for him, and will have drilled hours and hours of using his strength in top position to posture up from triangles and armbars. If Craig subs him from bottom it's going to be because he is THAT good. If he doesn't, will be a long night IMO.

**JIBBBY** · 02-21-17, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Don't Say I Didn't Warn you LOL...JK

I've been formally warned.. El Cucuy for the win all day long and twice on Sunday.

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