UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington (December 14, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Kamaru usman vs Colby Covington (for welterweight title)
Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski (for featherweight title)
Amanda Nunes vs Germaine de Randamie (for bantamweight title)
Jose Aldo vs Marlon Moraes
Urijah Faber vs Peter Yan

ESPN2, 8:00 pm ET
Geoff Neal vs Mike Perry
Irene Aldana vs Ketlen Vieira
Omari Akhmedov vs Ian Heinisch
Matt Brown vs Ben Saunders

ESPN+ 6:15 pm ET
Chase ooper vs Daniel Teymur
Kai Kara-France vs Brandon Moreno
Jessica Eye vs Viviane Araujo
Oaskar Piechota vs Punahele Soriano

[Pinocchio]

Want the winners?

Usman
Holloway
Nunes

[Hugo de Naranja]

Going to this card live. Should be awesome!

[Mase of Base]

Outstanding card! hope all the fights eventuate.

I know Faber is a shall I say legend of the sport but his time has passed that slot should of been filled by some other fight.

Really torn on the Max/Volkanovski fight should be great have to support the Auzzie though. And go the the young Kiwi Kai! Good luck young fella!

Pity the main event will get a lot of media for the wrong (political) reasons but will be a very interesting fight, can't stand the heel route Colby has taken but his MMA game is elite. Think for the MMA purists this will be great to watch.

And I can't believe Nunes is only -300 am I missing something here? De Randamie looks okay but Nunes is just on another level to everyone I feel she should be -500+ every fight imo.

Great betting card as well as entertainment value.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Gotta be careful with Nunes. GDR can hang with her on the feet if Nunes isn't gettings TDs.

[Enfuego]

Gotta be careful with Nunes. GDR can hang with her on the feet if Nunes isn't gettings TDs.

This.

GDR is long and has pinpoint striking. She's also the bigger fighter.

If anyone can beat Lioness, it's GDR.

[Unwritten Law]

Nunes and GDR have fought before 6 years ago and Nunes stopped her via elbows in the 1st round with Nunes in full mount raining down elbows for the TKO. Long time ago and safe to say both have significantly improved. GDR's last defeat was in the hands of Nunes as well. Should be a good scrap. I think this will be closer than the odds indicate.

[freeVICK]

Outstanding card! hope all the fights eventuate.

I know Faber is a shall I say legend of the sport but his time has passed that slot should of been filled by some other fight.

Really torn on the Max/Volkanovski fight should be great have to support the Auzzie though. And go the the young Kiwi Kai! Good luck young fella!

Pity the main event will get a lot of media for the wrong (political) reasons but will be a very interesting fight, can't stand the heel route Colby has taken but his MMA game is elite. Think for the MMA purists this will be great to watch.

And I can't believe Nunes is only -300 am I missing something here? De Randamie looks okay but Nunes is just on another level to everyone I feel she should be -500+ every fight imo.

Great betting card as well as entertainment value.

Hard to believe because Max has been around for so long, but Max is actually 4 years younger than Volkanovski...

[Unwritten Law]

Going to this card live. Should be awesome!

I might be heading to Vegas that weekend as well, maybe not for the live event itself but I'll likely be there probably at Park MGM Moneyline watching on the big screens and placing bets there. Great card to go to!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Demonata]

Still half tempted to go to vegas for this if I can afford it after going to vegas last week lol.

[Thrilla]

Colby looking good ahead of the fight

[Sanity Check]

Colby on the Candace Owens show.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Parlaying
Max
Yan
Nunez
Usman

[freelee]

looks like 3-1 to me don't see how Colby loses except lucky KO

[bjpenn85]

I dont see how Colby wins, hes worse in every department. Usman is the better wrestler, better striker, usman is more aggressive. They both have fighters in common, Usman wins by a wider margin every time.

For those who havent catchup with Usman being better on paper havent really done their research. The only statistics i can fin that Colby wins, is the "attempted strikes". There he might have an edge, and that alone may actually be the deciding factor in a close fight, so om not trying to say Usman is a lock or anything like that.

But Usman is slightly better in every area. Just take a look at their common opponent RDA. Colby wins by 5 points, usman wins by 12 points.

Look how often Usman nearly gets a KO, he rocked RDA, he rocked Woodley, he has only 1 KO, but we will se more KOs from Usman going forward i think.

I see people on Colby here, but i feel their analyses are dissapointing, and i havent really heard any good arguments that holds any water to why he should win. Other than he is the better wrestler, which he really isnt, its pretty even or Usman is better.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree with everything and think the line is on point as well......unless 1 guy dominates, we could see a fight determined by the judges...

I dont see how Colby wins, hes worse in every department. Usman is the better wrestler, better striker, usman is more aggressive. They both have fighters in common, Usman wins by a wider margin every time.

For those who havent catchup with Usman being better on paper havent really done their research. The only statistics i can fin that Colby wins, is the "attempted strikes". There he might have an edge, and that alone may actually be the deciding factor in a close fight, so om not trying to say Usman is a lock or anything like that.

But Usman is slightly better in every area. Just take a look at their common opponent RDA. Colby wins by 5 points, usman wins by 12 points.

Look how often Usman nearly gets a KO, he rocked RDA, he rocked Woodley, he has only 1 KO, but we will se more KOs from Usman going forward i think.

I see people on Colby here, but i feel their analyses are dissapointing, and i havent really heard any good arguments that holds any water to why he should win. Other than he is the better wrestler, which he really isnt, its pretty even or Usman is better.

[turbozed]

Here's a good breakdown from a pure wrestling perspective from Ed Gallo:

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2019/12/10/21004120/ufc-245-wrestling-breakdown-kamaru-usman-vs-colby-covington-mma-technique

Usman also has a 5.5" reach advantage.

[freelee]

I think usman could KO him but I think he won't be able to keep him down if he gets a takedown and standing up I think Colby will just outwork him and usman won't be able to keep pace

[JIBBBY]

I'm going Usman, I trust his chin, cardio, punching power and wrestling grit just a little more.. Always bet on black theory in play here.. Odds are pretty much spot on in my opinion though unfortunately..

I'm leaning a favorite heavy card.. Maybe Jose Aldo can pull off the upset though..

[JC2008]

- I leaned Usman after the Woodley fight, I lean him even more after watching him on JRE a few months back where he said he will destroy him for all of the American immigrants or something to that effect haha.

[Pinoy-T-X]

[Pr0ph3t]

HeatCheck lotto ticket after a really good day yesterday. If Teymur wins, I’m throwing a couple thousand on Usman...

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/2a6a9bdUG9hMXZNS1Y1L1dDQWVRSWpZQjJPZz09/r/1530/

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA Prelims -




145 lbs.: Chase Hooper vs. Daniel Teymur

Chase Hooper (8-0-1) weathered a vicious striking attack from Canaan Kawaihae to claim victory on “Contender Series,” and though he didn’t receive a full ride to the Octagon, it was enough to pick up a developmental contract. A split draw in Cage Fury followed, after which he picked up a pair of stoppage wins en route to UFC.
“The Teenage Dream” will have a remarkable eight inches of height on Sweden’s Daniel Teymur (7-3).
“Kid Dynamite” didn’t exactly follow in brother David’s footsteps when he first entered UFC, dropping three consecutive fights and tapping in two of them. With his back against the wall, he came up big in his home country with a decision over Sung Bin Jo.
He has knocked out and submitted three opponents apiece.
Hooper on the mat is a nightmarish tangle of spindly limbs. Hooper on the feet is a mess. Kawaihae beat the snot out of him until his cardio gave out and that split draw saw him dropped by a fighter with a losing record. He’s not ready for primetime by my reckoning, but this is a winnable fight. Teymur’s cardio and grappling struggles have prevented his heavy hands from being a factor in the Octagon, two issues that Hooper could very well exploit.
What has me picking Teymur anyway, though, is the fact that Hooper seems mostly unable to take it to the mat on his terms. Teymur — though absolutely foolish enough to initiate the grappling — showed an improved gas tank and defensive wrestling against Jo. It’s a binary fight: either Teymur peels his face off with an overhand right or Hooper tanks his way to a ground battle he’ll undoubtedly win. I’m going to go out on a limb and say it’s the former.
Prediction: Teymur via first-round technical knockout
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125 lbs.: Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France

Brandon Moreno (15-5-1) went from winning his first three UFC bouts to dropping consecutive fights to Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja, resulting in his exit from the promotion. After knocking out Maikel Pérez to claim the LFA Flyweight title, he returned to the Octagon in September with a split draw against top prospect Askar Askarov.
He has scored 10 submissions and two (technical) knockouts as a professional.
Kai Kara-France’s (20-7) second-round defeat on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) and subsequent decision loss to Tatsumitsu Wada gave way to five consecutive wins, leading to a “Fight of the Night” Octagon debut against Elias Garcia in Dec. 2018. His next Octagon efforts saw him edge Raulian Paiva by split decision and defeat Mark De La Rosa unanimously back in August.
He is the shorter man by three inches.
I’ll readily admit that I have a bad habit of underestimating Moreno, so you should take me picking Kara-France with a grain of salt. Not that I can’t justify the pick, though — Kara-France has repeatedly demonstrated his takedown defense and scrambling ability during his Octagon tenure, and if he keeps it standing as I expect him to, he has “The Assassin Baby” out-gunned in both power and technique.
It’ll still be a nail-biter, as Moreno can wrap up a submission out of nowhere. If Kara-France tries to lean on his own takedowns, as he has in recent fights, Moreno will do terrible things to his neck before “Don’t Blink” can blink. I’m going to go ahead and assume he fights with a modicum of self-preservation, though, scrambling out of a bad spot or two to strike his way to a narrow victory.
Prediction: Kara-France via split decision
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125 lbs.: Jessica Eye vs. Viviane Araujo

Jessica Eye’s (14-7) drop to 125 pounds paid immediate dividends, snapping a four-fight skid to win three straight and set up a title shot. That didn’t go quite as well for her, though, ending early in the second round by way of a Valentina Shevchenko head kick.
“Evil” faces a two-inch reach disadvantage against “Vivi.”
Former Pancrase Strawweight champ Viviane Araujo (8-1) made a hell of a statement in her Octagon debut, stepping up two weight classes on short notice to knock out Talita Bernardo with one punch. She settled in at Flyweight for her next victory, a competitive decision over Alexis Davis at UFC 240.
Her seven professional stoppages include four by submission.
Now this is a crossroads fight. Eye had finally managed to cobble together some momentum after a dreadful Bantamweight run, only for Shevchenko to dash it in the most deflating fashion possible. Araujo, for her part, exploded onto the scene and maintains that intrigue despite having a bit more trouble than expected against Davis.
Between that, the power discrepancy, and Araujo having the takedown offense/defense to shut down the wrestling Eye occasionally relies on, there just isn’t much going the “Evil” one’s way. Araujo’s heavier blows seal the deal on her third straight Octagon victory.
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185 lbs.: Punahele Soriano vs. Oskar Piechota

Punahele Soriano (6-0) had never gone the distance as a professional when he joined “Contender Series,” dispatching all comers inside of four minutes apiece. He had to settle for a decision against Jamie Pickett in the inaugural main event of Season Three, but still came away with a contract.
“Puna” will give up nearly four inches of reach to Oskar Piechota (11-2-1).
“Imadlo” followed up his Cage Warriors title-winning knockout of Jason Radcliffe with wins in his first two Octagon bouts, among them a brutal finish of Tim Williams in under two minutes. He enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of two submission losses, though, gassing against Gerald Meerschaert and succumbing to the legendary grappling of Rodolfo Vieira.
He has knocked out and submitted five foes apiece.
I didn’t agree with Soriano getting a contract for his “Contender Series” victory. That’s because he showed cardio issues, some one-note striking, and an inability to do damage from top position. Having said that, the potential is definitely there between his punching power and All-American wrestling pedigree. UFC definitely isn’t easing him into the Octagon, either, as despite his recent struggles, Piechota’s own power and submission skills exceed those of anyone Soriano’s faced before.
The bookies have this a pick-‘em and they’re 100 percent right. Both have clear avenues of victory and potential weaknesses that the other can exploit. I keep flip-flopping on this, but I think Soriano’s takedowns may be the key. Things start hot before devolving into Soriano grinding his way to victory.
Prediction: Soriano via unanimous decision



170 lbs. Geoff Neal vs. Mike Perry

“Handz of Steel” Geoff Neal (12-2) lived up to his nickname on “Contender Series,” where he blew away Chase Waldon in less than two minutes to earn himself a UFC contract. His undefeated Octagon run has seen him earn three finishes in four wins, including a bonus-winning technical knockout of Niko Price in his most recent effort.
He’ll have one inch of height and four inches of reach on Mike Perry (13-5) come fight night.
“Platinum” has struggled to recapture the success of his 4-1 Octagon start, dropping four of his last six since earning two consecutive “Performance of the Night” bonuses. His last effort was perhaps his most entertaining yet, though, as he slugged his way to a “Fight of the Night” split decision loss against Vicente Luque in August.
All but two of his professional victories have come by form of knockout.
Neal just stopped a hellaciously powerful brawler, so it’s hard not to favor someone with almost all the same adjectives. Perry is admittedly faster and more durable than Price, true, but he’ll have all kinds of problems with Neal’s range and more versatile kickboxing offense.
The big worry for Neal is that the lost his composure at points last time out, allowing Price to find the mark with some booming shots. Perry only needs a moment’s lapse to turn anyone’s lights out. Even with that caveat, though, Neal’s just a bit too slick for him. “Handz of Steel” survives some shaky moments to continue his rise.
Prediction: Neal via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Ketlen Vieira vs. Irene Aldana

Ketlen Vieira (10-0) battled her way into Bantamweight contendership with four consecutive Octagon victories, two of them numerical upsets. Her last two fights have seen her score a comeback submission of Sara McMann and take a split decision over another former title challenger in Cat Zingano.
This will be her first fight in 21 months because of injuries.
Despite the hype behind her, Irene Aldana (11-5) stumbled out of the UFC gate with losses in her first two appearances. She currently finds herself on a 4-1 streak, though, the sole loss a contentious split decision to Raquel Pennington this past July.
All but one of her eight finishes have come in the first round.
I’ll admit, it’s been so long since I’ve seen Vieira in action that I had to dust off Fight Pass and refresh my memory with tape. Though her Judo skills are clearly legit, her boxing remains underdeveloped, and that just so happens to be Aldana’s wheelhouse. Indeed, the Mexican up-and-comer is far sharper with her hands and should be able to dominate on the feet, even with minor disadvantages in height and reach.
None of that matters if Vieira gets her on her back, of course, but Aldana’s greater than 90 percent takedown defense looks up to the task. Unless Vieira has dramatically improved her striking during her time away, a steady jab and high output win Aldana the day.
Prediction: Aldana via unanimous decision
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185 lbs.: Ian Heinisch vs. Omari Akhmedov

“Hurricane” Ian Heinisch (13-2) — the former LFA interim champion — punched his ticket to UFC by stopping Justin Sumter in brutal fashion on “Contender Series.” A pair of upset decisions over Cezar Ferreira and Antônio Carlos Júnior brought him to the brink of the elite, only for Derek Brunson to halt his momentum at UFC 241.
He has knocked out four pro opponents and submitted two others.
Omari Akhmedov (19-4-1) ended his UFC Welterweight run at 5-3, debuting at 185 pounds with a majority draw against Marvin Vettori. He returned to his winning ways with a pair of decisions over Tim Boetsch and Zak Cummings, extending his current run to 4-0-1 in the process.
He’ll have one inch each of height and reach on Heinisch.
Heinisch better have learned something from the Brunson loss; Akhmedov is a similarly suffocating top control specialist with enough punching power to keep “The Hurricane” honest on the feet. The key difference, though, is that Akhmedov has notoriously poor cardio, and if there’s one thing Heinisch does better than most, it’s push a furious pace. This fight is Heinisch’s to lose if he can survive past the eight-minute mark or so.
His mission, then, will be to do so without spending so much time on his back that things become unsalvageable on the scorecard. Akhmedov has survived some late surges before and Heinisch is easier to take down than his wrestling pedigree would suggest. My guess, though, is that we get something like Heinisch’s fight with “Shoeface.” He survives the early wrestling attack to empty Akhmedov’s gas tank and punish him for either a late stoppage or clear decision.
Prediction: Heinisch via unanimous decision
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170 lbs.: Matt Brown vs. Ben Saunders

Matt Brown (21-16) has damn sure looked “Immortal” during his 11-year Octagon tenure, putting together a seven-fight win streak at one point. In his last fight, he snapped a three-fight streak of stoppage losses by knocking out Diego Sanchez with one of the most violent elbows in recent memory.
This will be his first fight in more than two years, as he initially retired after the Sanchez fight before tearing his ACL ahead of a planned clash with Carlos Condit.
Ben Saunders (22-12-2) — whose 2007 UFC debut saw him defeat Daniel Barrera by unanimous decision — enters the cage this Saturday in the midst of a 1-5 skid. All five of those defeats have come inside the distance, including a knockout loss to Takashi Sato in April.
His 17 professional stoppage wins are split 9/8 between knockouts and submissions.
I would very much like to ask UFC about its insistence on throwing Saunders at every heavy-handed Welterweight it can find. Sure, he’s a sufficiently adept submission artist to ruin Brown on the mat, but historically poor wrestling and his infamously weak chin make it highly unlikely that he can use any of that before “The Immortal” cracks him with something he can’t survive.
Saunders has one bit of hope in that Brown’s body is notoriously fragile — the gut-munching knee “Killa B” landed on Jake Ellenberger would absolutely put Brown on the floor When Brown can knock him unconscious with practically any strike in his arsenal, though, it’s painfully unlikely that Saunders gets in a position to land that knee without getting flatlined. Brown marches into the pocket and lamps Saunders with something unpleasant.
Prediction: Brown via first-round knockout

[Hugo de Naranja]

Been crazy busy at work but very excited for this card. Let's get it gents!

[DoctorStrong]

I feel like UFC is losing popularity but it's stll fun to watch

[PaperTrail07]

card are all over the world and seem diluted to some-but they cater to the region....

I feel like UFC is losing popularity but it's stll fun to watch

[PaperTrail07]

THIS IS WORK

Been crazy busy at work but very excited for this card. Let's get it gents!

[strictlypaypal]

Hi Hugo, initial lean on the main and co main?

[spargament]

Hedge available on Yan/Faber .

Usman/Covington is impossible to pick. Usman has better footwork, Colby has quicker hands. Usman has more power, Colby has more volume and pressure. Usman has a bunch of health issues (knees among others?) that provide room for pause, especially given the length of his layoff. I lean Usman, but Colby won't freeze like Woodley did.

Moraes may kill Aldo. Shortest odds of anyone I feel very confident in. Saddens me as an Aldo fan though.

[JIBBBY]

I feel like UFC is losing popularity but it's stll fun to watch

Ref robberies aren't helping. The crazy long ball shot stoppages and then fighters contemplating to continue or not over the 5 minutes stoppage time is boring as hell. Fighters losing those fights will bow out and all MMA fans know this just to get the OUT with a NC.. That's crap!!! Fighters wear cups last I checked for a reason.

What else? Fighters are also wanting to hand pick fights lately and missing weight alot and that's crap too. Etc..

MMA is still solid though.. I'm still liking it.. Just some of the newer rules are handicapping the sport IMO..

[strictlypaypal]

Hedge available on Yan/Faber .

Usman/Covington is impossible to pick. Usman has better footwork, Colby has quicker hands. Usman has more power, Colby has more volume and pressure. Usman has a bunch of health issues (knees among others?) that provide room for pause, especially given the length of his layoff. I lean Usman, but Colby won't freeze like Woodley did.

Moraes may kill Aldo. Shortest odds of anyone I feel very confident in. Saddens me as an Aldo fan though.

Idk why ppl are so confident that usman will be the one pressing forward. Thats literally all colby knows. If he gets taken down hes going to get back up again. If anything ppl should be asking if usman will freeze like woodley did. Usman ko possible but dont see that happening at all. I can see usman running on fumes by round 5 but who knows. I feel theyre pretty evenly matched up so i like the + odds

[JIBBBY]

Idk why ppl are so confident that usman will be the one pressing forward. Thats literally all colby knows. If he gets taken down hes going to get back up again. If anything ppl should be asking if usman will freeze like woodley did. Usman ko possible but dont see that happening at all. I can see usman running on fumes by round 5 but who knows. I feel theyre pretty evenly matched up so i like the + odds

Two elite wrestlers matching up in the UFC usually ends up in a standing boxing match the entire fight.. That's all you have cap in this fight is whether Usman or Colby is better standing?

[rsynweap84]

Two elite wrestlers matching up in the UFC usually ends up in a standing boxing match the entire fight.. That's all you have cap in this fight is whether Usman or Colby is better standing?

That is what I was thinkin', good possibility this ends up as a stand-up, rockem-sockem robot fight...I do however like Aldo as the upset win...

GDR I'd love to take, and might in a few lottos but ughh...Nunes...but if GDR can clinch her up, or land a take-down and make Nunes work?...She did die to Cat on the mat...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hi Hugo, initial lean on the main and co main?

I've got Holloway and Usman.