UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker (June 27, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 8:00 pm ET
Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker
Mickey Gall vs. Mike Perry
Brendan Allen vs. Kyle Daukaus
Maurice Greene vs. Gian Villante
Aspen Ladd vs. Sara McMann

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Luis Pena vs. Khama Worthy
Jordan Griffin vs. Youssef Zalal
Tanner Boser vs. Philipe Lins
Kyle Nelson vs. Sean Woodson
Alexa Grasso vs. Ji Yeon Kim
Mara Romero Borella vs Miranda Maverick
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Takashi Sato

[Demonata]

Ok that's It! I'm going to make money this card! No more betting with my heart! Going to bet with my head!

[povis]

Fantastic main event should be a good fight also meaningful for lightweight division. Both fighters found the home at 155 and both are two wins away from title shot (in ideal world) I see DP as a favorite but odds a bit off imo

[agendaman]

like gall and worthy as dogs at nice odds

[Sanity Check]

Mike Perry is fighting the guy that walks out to the "Hey Mickey" song.




Interesting contrast of style / personality there.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not liking too many spots for this card. Planning to keep my action small.

[Unwritten Law]

I'm leaning Hangman in the main event. Think I might take a stab as a +180 dog.

[unitedlad]

How does Poirer hold up in the championship rounds?

Felder was really rocking Hooker in the 4th and 5th. Poirer strikes with more accuracy than Irish Dragon, not the same amount of volume.

[JIBBBY]

Mike Perry I think is a lock. Perry is gonna keep the fight standing and knock Galls head off in that fight.

[JIBBBY]

I'm leaning Hangman in the main event. Think I might take a stab as a +180 dog.

That dog could bark I agree.. Hooker will be very game in that fight. I think the odds should be closer to even.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Might just be worth taking Hooker ITD if you like him. Not a great roundwinner, and this isn't being judged in Australia so the scorecards won't be filled out before the fight.

[Demonata]

I think poirer murders hooker.

[Hugo de Naranja]

How does Poirer hold up in the championship rounds?

Felder was really rocking Hooker in the 4th and 5th. Poirer strikes with more accuracy than Irish Dragon, not the same amount of volume.

Are you saying Poirier lands less or more than Felder?

[PaperTrail07]

Lins should win here.....he was giving AA too much respect last fight and looked horrible....they are friends.........easy W for him here IMO.....

[PaperTrail07]

Pena as well....clear skills diff here IMO.....

Hooker is all the value...wont lay that juice on DP.....

Allen Wins ITD

LETS GO!

[unitedlad]

Are you saying Poirier lands less or more than Felder?

I'm saying Poirier throws less than Felder; whether he lands less is another story.

I think Hooker will play this one similar to the Felder fight - make his reach advantage count in the early rounds but will tire in the 4th and 5th, if it gets that far. My biggest concern is whether Poirier has the endurance to make it count.
I think I'll be betting the over either way; neither fighter is going to be coming out swinging, both have experience going the distance over 5 rounds and both are hard guys to KO.

over 2.5 rounds -120

[unitedlad]

Mike Perry I think is a lock. Perry is gonna keep the fight standing and knock Galls head off in that fight.

How is Perry's TDD? Gall will try his damndest to get this fight to the ground, if that happens then Perry is tapping.

Perry by TKO/Gall by Sub

[PaperTrail07]

Def not betting on a guy that recently lost to Diego Sanchez.... I don't even think I would hedge Gall by Sub LOL....let that one ride.....Perry seems like he has the speed and power advantage....If the line ends up getting STUPID like +400 gall.....may take him by dec as a +900 hedge or something lol...

[PaperTrail07]

Not looking at any #'s but IMO way less.....Felder is active as hell in there....Por picks his shots better and tries to counter...way less initiation .....even if he is winning and cutting the cage off and SEEMS aggressive....(like JJ kinda recently)....he corners and looks to counter and throw feints....

I'm saying Poirier throws less than Felder; whether he lands less is another story.

I think Hooker will play this one similar to the Felder fight - make his reach advantage count in the early rounds but will tire in the 4th and 5th, if it gets that far. My biggest concern is whether Poirier has the endurance to make it count.
I think I'll be betting the over either way; neither fighter is going to be coming out swinging, both have experience going the distance over 5 rounds and both are hard guys to KO.

over 2.5 rounds -120

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not looking at any #'s but IMO way less.....Felder is active as hell in there....Por picks his shots better and tries to counter...way less initiation .....even if he is winning and cutting the cage off and SEEMS aggressive....(like JJ kinda recently)....he corners and looks to counter and throw feints....

How about instead of randomly speculating, (in this case wrongly) we look at some actual numbers?

Felder lands 3.67 Significant Strikes/min at an accuracy rate of 43%. 3.67 * (1 / 0.43) means that he throws 8.53 SS/min.

http://www.ufcstats.com/fighter-details/e5010b1b94ca5755

Poirier lands 5.51 Significant Strikes/min at an accuracy rate of 49%. 5.51 * (1 / 0.49) means that he throws 11.24 SS/min.

http://www.ufcstats.com/fighter-details/029eaff01e6bb8f0

Not only does Poirier land 50% more than Felder, he is also significantly more active and accurate.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm saying Poirier throws less than Felder; whether he lands less is another story.

I think Hooker will play this one similar to the Felder fight - make his reach advantage count in the early rounds but will tire in the 4th and 5th, if it gets that far. My biggest concern is whether Poirier has the endurance to make it count.
I think I'll be betting the over either way; neither fighter is going to be coming out swinging, both have experience going the distance over 5 rounds and both are hard guys to KO.

over 2.5 rounds -120

Not true at all.

This forum is a great place to discuss opinions. However, when it comes to facts, be sure to look into the statistics before stating something like this as if it were true. Spreading misinformation like that can harm other posters.

[PaperTrail07]

I was just shooting from the hip there Hugo LOL...thanks for the #'s..

When I'm this torn on a fight I usually pass completely or take the dog. Love that we have an interesting main event.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I was just shooting from the hip there Hugo LOL...thanks for the #'s..

When I'm this torn on a fight I usually pass completely or take the dog. Love that we have an interesting main event.

Np. ufcstats.com definitely has some valuable info to offer. Something to consider.

This main event should be a banger!

[unitedlad]

Not true at all.

This forum is a great place to discuss opinions. However, when it comes to facts, be sure to look into the statistics before stating something like this as if it were true. Spreading misinformation like that can harm other posters.

I stand corrected! Nice job on the research

[WolfTicketDealer]

Kyle Nelson is out v. Sean Woodson. Always frustrating when you get a good line and the bout gets scrapped.

[Thor4140]

Live dog is worth a shot. Kyle Daukus trains with a buddy of mine and is ready to go. Will make weight, injury free and isn’t the type to get rattled in his first fight in the UFC. Only issue is that he usually fights guys smaller than him but this could be the same issue with his opponent. Sub In first round is a great possibility.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Kyle Nelson is out v. Sean Woodson. Always frustrating when you get a good line and the bout gets scrapped.

Miranda Maverick also out vs. Mara Romero Borella.

[BELM0NT]

If anyone here takes Dustin Porier, I promise youre burning your money. Last time I remember a main event this heavy one sided and close in odds was when Dustin fought Holloway and everyone thought Holloway was gonna win

[Sanity Check]

If anyone here takes Dustin Porier, I promise youre burning your money.

I SWEARRRRR

[Hugo de Naranja]

If anyone here takes Dustin Porier, I promise youre burning your money. Last time I remember a main event this heavy one sided and close in odds was when Dustin fought Holloway and everyone thought Holloway was gonna win

What does this even mean?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Kyle Nelson is out v. Sean Woodson. Always frustrating when you get a good line and the bout gets scrapped.

Did you have Woodson there?

[JIBBBY]

Prelim MMAMANIA -




125 lbs.: Mara Romero Borella vs. Miranda Maverick

Mara Romero Borella (12-8) started her UFC career with a major upset, choking out contender Kalindra Faria midway through the first round at UFC 216. She has since struggled to regain that form, dropping four of her next five and each of her last three.
The Spaniard boasts a three-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage.
Miranda Maverick (7-2) both avenged a loss and claimed victory in Invicta’s second Phoenix Series tournament, choking out DeAnna Bennett in the finals and becoming the first person to submit “Vitamin D” in the process. This past February, she further extended her win streak with a comfortable decision over UFC veteran Pearl Gonzalez.
Five of her professional wins have come by submission, four of them in the first round.
This match up looks more than a little worrisome for Borella. Between Maverick’s superior wrestling pedigree and fast-improving striking, the UFC newcomer has the skills to dominate wherever the fight goes. Though Maverick does occasionally leave herself open to takedowns by throwing naked kicks, she’s capable enough off of her back to keep Borella from mounting any meaningful offense during her brief windows of opportunity.
Maverick is a quality prospect at just 22 years old and Borella’s proven unable to consistently make her game work against strong opposition. In short, crisp combination striking and regular takedowns secure a comfortable decision win for Maverick.
Prediction: Maverick via unanimous decision
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170 lbs.: Takashi Sato vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

Takashi Sato (15-3) — entering the Octagon with knockout wins in five of his previous six bouts, made it six of seven by flattening Ben Saunders in his debut. His next bout pitted him against rising contender Belal Muhammad, who choked the TRIBE TOKYO product out early in the third round.
He has scored 10 pro finishes by form of knockout.
Ramiz Brahimaj (8-2) scored six consecutive first-round submissions before tasting his first professional defeat, since which he’s tapped two of three. His latest wins include a guillotine finish of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” finalist William Macario and a 55-second arm triangle of Carlos Martinez.
Injury scrapped a planned “Contender Series” bout with Miguel Baeza, making this his first fight in 15 months.
This pick, I’ll admit, is mostly guesswork. Brahimaj has spent most of his career in LFA, which doesn’t seem to have a video archive for its time on AXS TV. As a result, I’m forced to work with footage from 2017 and what highlights the promotion uploaded to YouTube. Though it’s clear from that footage that Brahimaj is a capable wrestler and a pathologically aggressive submission hunter, it’s not clear whether those skills are top-level or just the product of selective video editing.
Either way, Sato looks like a problem for him. The Japanese bruiser is difficult to hold down and only becomes vulnerable to submissions when his cardio begins to wane. Brahimaj could push him to that point, sure, but he’s had enough issues with powerful strikers like Macario to make it unlikely that he lasts that long. Sato floors him with the quickness.
Prediction: Sato via first-round technical knockout
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145 lbs.: Jordan Griffin vs. Youssef Zalal

Jordan Griffin’s (18-7) impressive finish on “Contender Series” didn’t translate into immediate UFC success, dropping consecutive decisions to Dan Ige and Chas Skelly. He came up big with his back against the wall, however, coming back from a rough first round to choke out T.J. Brown in February.
He was previously scheduled to rematch Darrick Minner two shows ago.
Youssef Zalal (8-2) — reeling from two recent losses — entered his UFC debut as a notable underdog to power-punching prospect Austin Lingo. Undaunted, “The Morrocan Devil” used solid movement, steady kicks, and effective takedowns to shut down Lingo’s offense and claim victory.
The win was his first by decision, five others coming by submission.
Zalal’s success against Lingo should give him confidence against another wild, all-offense bruiser in Griffin. There is, however, a key difference between “The Native Psycho” and “Lights Out:” Griffin wrestles, and Zalal had all kinds of trouble with a relentless takedown artist in Jose Mariscal last year. It’s quite likely that Griffin gets in on Zalal’s hips at some point, and between Griffin’s submission defense and the fact that Zalal is a less dominant wrestler than the likes of Ige or Skelly, that bodes well for Griffin.
If Zalal can execute perfectly like he did against Lingo, picking away at Griffin with kicks and landing reactive takedowns, he’s got a real shot at making it 2-0 in the Octagon. More likely, though, Griffin outlands and outscrambles him on his way to a competitive but clear decision.
Prediction: Griffin via unanimous decision



155 lbs.: Luis Pena vs. Khama Worthy

Undeterred by the injury that ended his The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) run, Luis Pena (8-2) went on to win four of six in the Octagon, both losses coming by split decision. His most recent bout saw him bounce back from a narrow defeat to Matt Frevola with a decision over late replacement Steve Garcia in January.
He’ll have four inches of height and reach on Khama Worthy (15-6).
Less than one month after extending his win streak to five with a third-round knockout, Worthy stepped up on short notice to face prospect Devonte Smith in Anaheim. Despite facing massive odds, he authored one of the year’s biggest numerical upsets with a bonus-winning first-round finish.
Thirteen of his last 15 fights have ended inside the distance and he’s scored nine professional knockouts overall.
Way back in my “New Blood” piece about him, I described Worthy as a “boom or bust” fighter; the Smith win was a boom, this will be a bust. Dangerous as his power makes him, he remains fragile and bereft of defense, and though Pena is by no means a knockout artist, he’s skilled enough to hurt Worthy on the feet or exploit his aggression to set up submission opportunities.
Despite his lanky frame, durability hasn’t been an issue for Pena thus far, making it unlikely that Worthy can land a game-changing blow before the former’s technical superiority takes over. Either a club-and-sub or early takedown nets Peña a quick tapout.
Prediction: Pena via first-round submission
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265 lbs.: Tanner Boser vs. Philipe Lins

Tanner Boser (17-6-1) — riding a 4-1-1 streak — was all set to make his UFC debut against Giacomo Lemos in July, but wound up beating Daniel Spitz three months later after Lemos failed a drug test. This set up a clash with top prospect Ciryl Gane, who comfortably outstruck “The Bulldozer” to a unanimous decision win in December.
He’ll enjoy a four-inch reach advantage over “Monstro.”
Moving up to Heavyweight after a pair of losses at 205 pounds, Philipe Lins (14-4) went a perfect 4-0 during his time in PFL, winning their 2018 tournament with four finishes. The run wasn’t to last, as he dropped a decision to Andrei Arlovski in his UFC debut last month.
He has knocked out eight professional opponents and submitted another four.
Yeah, odds are that this one’s not making it onto any highlight reels. Boser is among the least aggressive and least entertaining Heavyweights on the planet, and while Lins is an exponentially superior finisher, he’s also on the patient side as big men go. We’re likely to see more circling and feints than protracted exchanges.
This will likely come down to Boser’s variety against Lins’ power, and “Monstro” could very easily let this fight get away from him if he lets Boser dictate the pace. Still, the Brazilian hits so much harder that the differential in telling blows will be staggering. Lins leans on his heavier hands to win their sporadic trades and take the decision.
Prediction: Lins via unanimous decision
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150 lbs.: Sean Woodson vs. Kyle Nelson

Update: **** issues have forced Kyle Nelson out of UFC on ESPN 12 this weekend, Julian Erosa will now step in to face Sean Woodson instead (details).
The towering Sean Woodson (7-0) punched his ticket to the Octagon with a brutal flying knee finish of the favored Terrance McKinney on the Contender Series, setting up a debut against Kyle Bochniak three months later. Despite “Crash’s” best efforts, Woodson controlled the striking and shut down Bochniak’s wrestling to claim a unanimous decision win.
He stands three inches taller than Kyle Nelson (13-3) and will have an eight-inch reach advantage.
“The Monster” stepped up in weight for his UFC debut, which saw him badly hurt top contender Diego Ferreira before succumbing to the Brazilian’s grappling attack in the second round. A submission loss to Matt Sayles his next time out dropped him to 0-2 in the Octagon, but he came back to knock out Polo Reyes in 96 seconds and keep his career afloat.
The finish was his fifth by knockout and ninth overall.
Woodson’s ability to stay on his feet against strong wrestlers remains in question, but Nelson doesn’t quite fit that bill. Though he managed to get Sayles down through sheer persistence, Bochniak tried that strategy against “The Sniper” to no effect. That leaves “The Monster” to wins a standup battle against someone with more than half a foot of reach on him, which Nelson’s edge in stopping power can’t compensate for.
That said, Nelson could theoretically win this by keeping Woodson pressed against the cage for as long as humanly possible. Without the takedown skills of McKinney, though, it’s hard to see his efforts towards that goal outweighing Woodson’s volume striking in the eyes of the judges. Woodson outlands him at range to secure the decision.
Prediction: Woodson via unanimous decision
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115 lbs.: Jinh Yu Frey vs. Kay Hansen

Jinh Yu Frey (9-4) claimed Invicta Atomweight gold in her second attempt, defeating Minna Grusander for the vacant title and successfully defending it in a rematch. After losing a competitive bout to Rizin champ Ayaka Hamasaki on the Japanese veteran’s home turf, she returned to Invicta with a win over Ashley Cummins, only to lose her title on the scales.
She’ll have a two-inch reach advantage over her far younger foe.
The 20-year-old Kay Hansen (6-3) enters the Octagon with wins in three of her last four official bouts, the lone loss a narrow split decision. Her most recent effort saw her take a dominant decision over Liara Pirosin in March, which would make for her third straight win if you count her one-round victory in Invicta’s Phoenix Series.
She has submitted three opponents among her five stoppage wins.
Frey is at her best when opponents are hesitant to press the issue, allowing her effective lateral movement and powerful left hand to dictate slow-paced chess matches. Hansen isn’t going to give her that respect; the 10th Planet product is always keen on getting it to the mat at the earliest opportunity, meaning Frey’s issues with being physically bullied will be at the forefront.
Though Hansen is at a serious disadvantage in the striking, her size, strength, and wrestling skills look more than sufficient to control the fight wherever it goes. After seeing Frey’s struggles with Hamasaki’s top control, I expect Hansen to have plenty of success here, dominating on the mat for a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Hansen via unanimous decision

[BELM0NT]

It means if you take Dustin Porier your a SUCKER and Vegas is gonna smoke you like a joint! Understand?

[JIBBBY]

How is Perry's TDD? Gall will try his damndest to get this fight to the ground, if that happens then Perry is tapping.

Perry by TKO/Gall by Sub

He's a decent wrestler with some ground skills at this point in his career.. Good enough to keep it standing I think the entire fight.. Perry is pretty strong and explosive in all his moves in MMA.. Even if taken down he'll pop right up..

On Feb 23, 2020, Perry faced Al Iaquinta at Chael Sonnen's Submission Underground 11 event.^[41] He won the fight via fastest escape time.^[42][43]

[BELM0NT]

I SWEARRRRR

Its a crotch party right up in here