UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje (May 7, 2022)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje (for Lightweight title)
Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza (for Strawweight title)
Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
Mauricio Rua vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon

ESPN 8:00 pm ET
Randy Brown vs. Khaos Williams
Macy Chiasson vs. Norma Dumont
Brandon Royval vs. Matt Schnell
Blagoy Ivanov vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Danny Roberts vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Tracy Cortez vs. Melissa Gatto
Kleydson Rodrigues vs. C.J. Vergara
Ariane Carnelossi vs. Loopy Godinez
Journey Newson vs. Fernie Garcia

[magpie878]

I've become a huge Oliveria fan over the last few years, he's become so good. Always liked Gaethje too.

I think Oliveira will get seemingly rocked as usual, then find his way to another submission victory. If Gaethje can't KO Oliveira early, there's zero chance he fights off the sub attempts.

[Brandt Moat]

Agree! I like the KO senario. Oliveira gets hit. Justin can finish. That's my betting path.

[cankid]

I've become a huge Oliveria fan over the last few years, he's become so good. Always liked Gaethje too.

I think Oliveira will get seemingly rocked as usual, then find his way to another submission victory. If Gaethje can't KO Oliveira early, there's zero chance he fights off the sub attempts.

Ditto GL

[agendaman]

is frankie edgar retired.

[Brandt Moat]

Thought I seen him in Bare knuckle.

is frankie edgar retired.

[Brandt Moat]

saw? lol

[Brandt Moat]

I like Blagnoy Ivanov. He has been on the short end of a few questionable decisions in his last few fights. The long layoff concerns me. A world Sambo champion. That goes along way. He is as tough as they come. Survived a knife to the chest. Can take a punch from LEWIS and keep going forward. Think he has taken some time off to spend time with family. May have taken a step back to clear his head after those decisions. Not a bad price either. GL

[hankcream]

The UFC needs a legends league or senior tour. Cowboy vs Lauzon & Shogun vs OSP should not be on the main card of a pay per view, how would you even bet these old man fights.

[JIBBBY]

Oli by sub is hard to ignore. Justin does have a shot at the KO also. Could be a hedge deal here..

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups!




170 lbs.: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Danny Roberts

Welterweight run for Francisco Trinaldo (27-8) got off to a rough start, as Muslim Salikhov snapped the Brazilian’s three-fight win streak. Four months later, “Massaranduba” secured his first 170-pound Octagon victory by narrowly defeating Dwight Grant at the APEX.
He gives up four inches of height and reach to “Hot Chocolate.”
Stoppage losses to Claudio Silva and Michel Pereira didn’t stop Danny Roberts (18-5) from righting the ship with an upset knockout of Zelim Imadaev. His next effort pitted him against Ramazan Emeev, whom he scraped past via split decision in Vegas.
He has scored eight knockouts as a professional, three of them in the Octagon.
Even if the Welterweight division has treated Trinaldo more poorly than his former stomping grounds of 155 pounds, I like his chances here. Emeev found a lot of success with the same sort of grinding, low-output approach that Trinaldo’s perfected over the years, and “Massaranduba’ is a fair bit more aggressive and pressure-heavy than his Russian counterpart. Roberts’ occasional bursts of dynamic striking strike me as less reliable than Trinaldo’s familiar approach.
Trinaldo’s definitely getting up in years and was fortunate to get the decision against Grant, but Roberts’ historically shaky takedown defense should give him a convenient out if things get too hairy on the feet. Persistence, power, and old man strength carry him to a narrow win.
Prediction: Trinaldo via split decision
Related
Oliveira Unfazed By Gaethje’s Mental ‘Bulls—t’

125 lbs.: Tracy Cortez vs. Melissa Gatto

A win over top prospect Erin Blanchfield sent Tracy Cortez (9-1) to Contender Series, where she wrestled her way past Mariya Agapova to claim a UFC contract. She’s now 3-0 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion, most recently beating future Bellator champion, Justine Kish, via split decision.
Saturday’s bout ends a year-long layoff.
Melissa Gatto (8-0-2) first signed with UFC in 2019, only to withdraw from three planned debuts due to injury and travel restrictions. She made up for lost time in 2021, stopping Victoria Leonardo and Sijara Eubanks in the span of four months.
She has submitted four professional foes and knocked out two others.
This is a winnable fight for Cortez, but one that could get away from her in an instant. Eubanks’ early wrestling success should give Cortez plenty of confidence in her own grinding approach, and while she’s on the wrong end of a reach disadvantage, the technical gap on the feet doesn’t look insurmountable. At the same time, Gatto’s bottom game is a legitimate threat, as seen when she swept a world BJJ champ in “Sarj.” While Cortez has the right cards, she has to play them perfectly.
So long as Cortez manages her weight cut better than in the Kish fight, though, I trust her to mind her P’s and Q’s while racking up long stretches of top control. She grinds a game Gatto out to make it four straight in the Octagon.
Prediction: Cortez via unanimous decision
Related
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125 lbs.: Kleydson Rodrigues vs. C.J. Vergara

A submission finish of Eduardo Henrique da Silva earned Kleydson Rodrigues (7-1) the Jungle Fight Flyweight title and extended his win streak to five. A two-year layoff followed, which “KR” ended by dominating Santo Curatolo on Contender Series.
His five professional finishes include three by knockout.
C.J. Vergara (9-3-1) followed his acquisition of the Fury FC Flyweight title with a 41-second wipeout of Bruno Korea on the Contender Series. He debuted less than two months later against Ode Osbourne, who survived a late surge to snap Vergara’s five-fight win streak.
He’ll enjoy one inch of height and reach on Rodrigues.
While he did turn things around late, Vergara’s performance against Osbourne doesn’t give me a lot of hope about his chances here. Rodriguez has the long-range striking attack to piece Vergara up in similar fashion, being a superior technician to “The Jamaican Sensation,” and he has the gas tank to maintain his pace for three rounds. Vergara won’t even find success in his wheelhouse, as Rodrigues can more than hold his own in the pocket with heavy knees and elbows.
At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, Rodrigues already looks like a potential player at 125. Vergara gets hit enough that the early finish should be there for him, but even if it’s not, “KR’s” sharp enough to dominate throughout.
Prediction: Rodrigues via first round technical knockout
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115 lbs.: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Lupita Godinez

Ariane Carnelossi (14-2) went from losing to Amanda Ribas in her professional debut to winning 12 straight, a streak that ended in a competitive UFC debut loss to Angela Hill. She’s since gotten back on track with stoppage wins over Na Liang and Istela Nunes.
She’s scored 11 finishes as a professional and hasn’t seen the judges since 2018.
After claiming the LFA Strawweight title with a majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos, Lupita Godinez (7-2) welcomed Jessica Penne back to the Octagon, losing a split decision in the process. She then went 2-1 in under 50 days, defeating Silvana Gomez Juarez and Loma Lookboonmee, while dropping a decision to Luana Carolina.
She’s the same height as her opponent for once, though she faces a slight reach disadvantage.
Honestly, I still struggle to wrap my head around Godinez after four Octagon appearances. She’s a great wrestler with some remarkably sharp boxing to back it up, but is prone to some inexplicable decision-making in the cage, such as her insistence on clinching with Penne and complete refusal to try striking with Carolina once the takedowns dried up.
Still, that wrestling’s enough to earn my pick here. Carnelossi’s takedown defense consistently failed her against a very limited takedown artist in Na, so while her power and volume make her a genuine threat on the feet, there doesn’t seem to be much stopping Godinez from just dragging her to the mat anytime things get uncomfortable. She defuses “Sorriso” with constant takedowns and long stretches of top control.
Prediction: Godinez via unanimous decision
Related
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135 lbs.: Journey Newson vs. Fernie Garcia

Journey Newson (9-3) went 7-2-1 as an amateur before starting his professional career 9-1, the lone loss coming to future Contender Series graduate, Benito Lopez. He’s still chasing his first official UFC victory — failing a drug test for marijuana overturned his knockout win over Domingo Pilarte.
He fights for the first time since 2020.
After suffering his first professional defeat in a 2019 split decision against Cody Freeman. Fernie Garcia (10-1) rode a four-fight win streak into the Contender Series. When Paul Capaldo withdrew, Garcia took on Joshua Weems, whom he put away with his first professional technical knockout victory to secure a contract.
He’s the taller of the two by two inches but gives up a half-inch of reach.
It’s hard to get a bead on where exactly Newson is in his development; as he’s fought for all of 1:19 in the past give-or-take three years. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him emerge from this layoff a changed man and secure a victory, especially since Garcia’s had his share of close shaves in the past.
I can only work with the data I’m given, though, and that has me favoring Garcia. The latter’s volume punching figures to work a treat against a boxer who lacks the power to punish his lapses, and he ostensibly has the wrestling chops to steer clear of Newson’s ground game. Garcia outworks him to a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Garcia via unanimous decision
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170 lbs.: Andre Fialho vs. Cameron VanCamp

Portugal’s Andre Fialho (15-4) brought a four-fight knockout streak into his UFC debut, which saw him drop a decision to veteran Michel Pereira in Anaheim. Undeterred, he smashed Miguel Baeza in his sophomore effort to earn “Performance of the Night.”
He boasts 12 professional knockouts and fights for the second time in three weeks.
Cameron VanCamp (15-5-1) started his professional career 5-3-1 before embarking on his current run, which has seen him lose only to former or future UFC fighters. He’s currently in the midst of a four-fight winning streak, including three consecutive finishes.
He has ended 13 professional fights inside the distance, nine by submission.
Unless the quick turnaround completely compromises Fialho, VanCamp’s in trouble. He’s far too hittable on the feet to handle a knockout artist of Fialho’s caliber, and though he’s shown some decent wrestling in the past, it’s too unproven against strong competition for me to have any faith in it. He’s in for a striking battle that he’s not equipped to survive.
It’s worth noting that Fialho’s had cardio issues in the past, making the short notice a potential landmine, but I don’t see VanCamp surviving long enough for that to play a factor. Fialho levels him in the first few minutes.
Prediction: Fialho via first round technical knockout



170 lbs.: Randy Brown vs. Khaos Williams

Lookin’ for a Fight graduate, Randy Brown (14-4), started his UFC career 3-1 before a 1-2 skid saw him fall to Belal Muhammad and Niko Price. He’s since won four of five, three of them inside the distance.
He stands three inches taller than Khaos Williams (13-2) and sports a one-inch reach advantage.
“The Oxfighter” dispatched Alex Morono and Abdul Razak Alhassan in a combined 57 seconds to announce his arrival in UFC’s Welterweight division. Though he came up short against Michel Pereira, he got back on track by beating fellow finishers Matt Semelsberger and Miguel Baeza.
Six of his eight professional finishes have come via knockout.
I’m leaning toward Brown in this battle of fighters I regularly underestimate. “Rude Boy” has developed into fine striker over the years, one who hypothetically has the composure to avoid getting caught up in Williams’ brutal flurries. He’s also shown the ability to match Williams’ output, and the sort of brutal shots it’s taken to put him away in the past suggest he can survive even if Williams manages to clip him from time to time.
We’ve seen Williams short-circuit enough opponents to know that he can end a fight in an instant even when compromised, so Brown will be walking a tightrope the whole time. After a dozen UFC appearances, though, I think he’s got the experience to do so. In the end, he potshots his way to a competitive win.
Prediction: Brown via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Macy Chiasson vs. Norma Dumont

Macy Chiasson (8-2) followed her dominant run in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28 house by winning four of her first five in the Octagon. Then came a late-notice fight with Raquel Pennington, which saw Chiasson miss the Featherweight limit before tapping to a second round guillotine choke.
Her professional finishes are split 4/2 between knockouts and submissions.
Norma Dumont (7-1) got a rough welcome to the Octagon courtesy of Megan Anderson, who knocked her out less than four minutes into her debut. She enters the cage this Saturday in the midst of a three-fight win streak, including a main event victory over Aspen Ladd last time out.
“The Immortal” stands four inches shorter than Chiasson and gives up five inches of reach.
Chiasson’s definitely got some things going for her in this match up: greater stopping power, more variety in her stand up, and a more effective ground game. Unfortunately for her, Dumont seems to have exactly what she needs to come out on top anyway: the careful, effective boxing to exploit Chiasson’s poor striking defense the way Pennington did. She can win this fight behind her jab, especially since Chiasson ostensibly won’t have the size advantage she enjoyed at 135 pounds.
If Chiasson can reach even half of her ostensibly potential, she can out-slug Dumont to victory. Considering her historical inability to do so, however, expect Dumont to edge out a boxing match.
Prediction: Dumont via split decision
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125 lbs.: Brandon Royval vs. Matt Schnell

Brandon Royval (13-6) started his UFC career with submission wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, both of which earned him “Fight of the Night” bonuses. He proceeded to suffer stoppage losses to Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja, but returned to the win column by edging out Rogerio Bontorin in his most recent effort.
That decision win was just his second as a professional, scoring eight submissions and three knockouts.
Matt Schnell (15-5) put a winless (0-2) UFC start behind him to win his next four, including a bonus-winning, 83-second submission of Jordan Espinosa. “Danger” now sits at 1-2, a win over Tyson Nam sandwiched between losses to Pantoja and Bontorin.
This marks his first fight in nearly one year, as three different planned meetings with Alex Perez fell through.
While Perez was likely the more toxic match up for Schnell, Royval figures to present his fair share of problems. Royval’s struggles have come against overpowering takedown artists. Indeed, he excels in the same sort of scrambles Schnell does, and he’s got the submission offense and defense to avoid getting caught on the mat.
More critically, his wild striking offense seems well-equipped to crack Schnell’s historically shaky chin. Without the smothering wrestling to keep Royval honest, expect Schnell to get clipped and overwhelmed early.
Prediction: Royval via first round technical knockout
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265 lbs.: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-8-1) kicked off his UFC Heavyweight run with a 2-2 stretch, continuing a streak of alternating wins and losses that began in 2015. “Pezao” has since snapped that streak by cruising past Maurice Green and destroying Ben Rothwell in quick succession.
His 17 pro finishes include 14 by knockout.
Blagoy Ivanov (18-4) rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Junior dos Santos by scoring decisions over Ben Rothwell and Derrick Lewis. He now finds himself winless since 2019, proceeding to drop consecutive decisions to Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai.
He gives up two inches of height and reach.
He may be older and larger than before, but I think Rogerio de Lima is the same old “Pezao” underneath it all: ungodly powerful, possessed of surprisingly decent offensive wrestling, and completely helpless off of his back. He needs an early finish to avoid Ivanov’s grinding top game, and I just don’t see that happening. Ivanov’s exclusively fought power punchers since joining the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion and none of them have managed to drop or visibly hurt him.
That’s not to say Rogerio de Lima can’t be the first, of course. Rothwell hadn’t been stopped with strikes in more than one decade and he got demolished in seconds. Still, I like Ivanov to survive the early blitz, tie up and ruin the Brazilian’s day on the mat.
Prediction: Ivanov via second round submission

[Demonata]

Amazing card

[JIBBBY]

Tony Ferguson at +300 is almost to good to pass up on. Michael Chandler isn't a world beater last I checked.

[magpie878]

Oliveira f'ing misses weight.

Belt gonna be vacated. Unless Gaethje wins.

[hankcream]

Oliveira f'ing misses weight.

Belt gonna be vacated. Unless Gaethje wins.

What an idiot, BOL moved Oliveira down to -155 and removed all the props. If Oliveira wins he won't get the belt, it looks like a set-up to get Connor a title shot next.

[Thrilla]

Tony Ferguson at +300 is almost to good to pass up on. Michael Chandler isn't a world beater last I checked.

This

[JC2008]

Tony Ferguson at +300 is almost to good to pass up on. Michael Chandler isn't a world beater last I checked.

Especially since Chandler's fight iq is horrid.

[JIBBBY]

Too many chick fights on the prelims. I'm gonna get bored watching all those fights go to decision.

[JIBBBY]

Especially since Chandler's fight iq is horrid.

Chandler is a bit of a beast though. He brings it. Still at those odds you gotta try Tony! Tony is always a gamer in his fights as well.

[Demonata]

Too many chick fights on the prelims. I'm gonna get bored watching all those fights go to decision.

Have plenty of wine and you won't be bored

[JIBBBY]

Have plenty of wine and you won't be bored

More like Tequila for this dog.

Can't drink to early in the game or I will be burnt by the time the PPV main fights begin.

I'm screwed watching and betting on these 3 round patty cake point chick prelim fights, must suck it up.

[Kermit]

Damn, Loopy looked great.

[JIBBBY]

That Rodrigues fight was a good fight not sure about that decision though? I think Rod had rounds 1 and 3..

Both solid fighters regardless.

[JC2008]

I had Kleydson too in a parlay with Journey and Loopy. Damn judging. Jibbby are you utilizing your dog itd angle for this event? If so, which fights?

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby are you utilizing your dog itd angle for this event? If so, which fights?

No, not with this event. Way to many fights I think go the distance.

[adila1401]

sry if its alrdy been answered, any idea where Hugo is? Often read his previews and enjoyed his engagement in community

[JIBBBY]

sry if its alrdy been answered, any idea where Hugo is? Often read his previews and enjoyed his engagement in community

Hugo went stealthy. He still reads in.

Too much effort posting picks with every event and not getting anything back in return. Waste of time. That's what happen to me a few years ago in my thinking. Hugo I think felt the same.

Once 5dimes went to shit I could no longer copy and post my prop bets pending with every event. That was part of it also..

[adila1401]

Hugo went stealthy. He still reads in.

Too much effort posting picks with every event and not getting anything back in return. Waste of time. That's what happen to me a few years ago in my thinking. Hugo I think felt the same.

Once 5dimes went to shit I could no longer copy and post my prop bets pending with every event. That was part of it also..

thanks Jibby, best of luck tonight

[Thrilla]

Decision fest lol. F this card

[JIBBBY]

Decision fest lol. F this card

Very much a decision fest...

[JIBBBY]

R U kidding me with that front kick KO? Geeez. Tony dead..

[GunShard]

I haven't seen a front kick win since Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida.

[dlowilly]

I thought Tony was dead

Also, good grief, have your own kids first, that's embarrassing

[mackave]

tony , rip

[hankcream]

What the F are these girls celebrating, that had to Bo one of the most boring fights I’ve ever seen.
4 units Oliviera ITD +135