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Prelim write ups -
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170 lbs.: Ian Garry vs. Song Kenan
Ian Garry (10-0) capped off his Cage Warriors run by beating Jack Grant for the Welterweight title, then followed up with a one-punch knockout of Jordan Williams in his UFC debut. “The Future” now sits at 3-0 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion after winning decisions over Darian Weeks and Gabe Green.
Five of his six professional finishes have come by knockout.
An upset debut knockout of Bobby Nash kicked off a 4-1 UFC start for Song Kenan (16-6), who ended three of those wins inside the distance. A year on the sidelines followed, after which he suffered a first-round knockout loss to Max Griffin at the APEX.
He fights for the first time in almost exactly two years.
Three fights into his UFC career, I think it’s fair to expect more from Garry than what we’ve seen so far. Nothing about his game has graduated from “good” to “very good;” his movement is good and his hands are quick, but there’s no spark, no eye-catching bit of iron demanding a proper crucible.
Still, what he’s got so far should be enough to get past Song. Garry is fast and sharp enough to counter his way past Song’s slugging on the feet, and if things do wind up getting too hairy for the Irishman’s liking, he holds a considerable edge on the ground that Song’s shaky takedown defense should permit him to utilize.
In the end, Garry picks his shots and sneaks in takedowns for a comfortable decision win.
Prediction: Garry via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Mana Martinez vs. Cameron Saaiman
Mana Martinez (10-3) battled through the loss of his coach to scrape past Guido Cannetti in his UFC debut. Though he fell short against Ronnie Lawrence next time out, “Manaboi” returned to the win column in Oct. 2022, edging out fellow slugger Brandon Davis.
Five of his eight knockout wins came in the first round.
Cameron Saaiman (7-0) parlayed his EFC title victory into a Contender Series opportunity that saw him knock out Josh Wang-Kim to earn a contract. When original debut foe Ronnie Lawrence withdrew, Saaiman squared off with Steven Koslow, whom he stopped in the waning seconds of the third round.
“MSP” faces a two-inch height disadvantage and a three-inch reach disadvantage.
If Martinez had lived up to even a fraction of his potential in the Octagon, I’d be calling for an upset here. Saaiman is a tornado of offense with little to no regard for his personal well-being; on paper, that shouldn’t work against a man with legitimately horrifying power. It’s not hard at all to picture Martinez catching Saaiman rushing in and instantly turning the lights out.
It was even easier to picture him doing that to Cannetti and Davis, though, and both of them pushed him to the brink despite being among the weakest members of the UFC roster. Even if Saaiman does give him plenty of opportunities to land that death punch, I can’t trust Martinez to capitalize. On the other hand, I can definitely trust Saaiman to bring the hurt.
Prediction: Saaiman via third round technical knockout
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115 lbs.: Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci
After spending nearly four years on the sidelines, Jessica Penne (14-7) re-asserted herself as a Strawweight to watch by beating Lupita Godinez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Her streak would stop at two, though, as fellow Invicta alum Emily Ducote out-struck her to a unanimous decision win in July 2022.
Her armbar of Kowalkiewicz marked her eight submission win and tenth finish overall.
A brutal UFC debut saw Tabatha Ricci (7-1) step up in weight on short notice to fight Manon Fiorot, who put away “Baby Shark” with strikes midway through the second round. She’s since found her footing at her proper weight class with victories over Maria Oliveira and Polyana Viana.
She gives up four inches of height and six inches of reach to Penne.
The last time these two were supposed to fight, I tabbed Penne as a legitimate upset threat. After going back over the tape, though, I think I have to flip-flop. While Ricci is nowhere near the boxer Ducote is, she’s quick enough to close the gap in similar fashion and figures to be the stronger takedown artist by a solid margin.
While Penne has a shot if she can consistently establish back control, Ricci’s judo prowess and willingness to take down dangerous submission artists like Viana suggests that she can handle the veteran’s transitions and grind out a decision win.
Prediction: Ricci via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Farid Basharat
Da’Mon Blackshear (12-4) choked out DeAndre Anderson to win the CFFC Bantamweight title, which he defended six months later with a third-round finish of Josh Smith. When Youssef Zalal found himself in need of a last-minute opponent, Blackshear answered the call, starting strong but ultimately settling for a draw after losing a 10-8 third round.
All eight of his pro submissions have come via choke.
Farid Basharat’s (9-0) impressive run on the European circuit set up a Contender Series opportunity against Willian Souza, who wound up missing weight and scuttling the fight altogether. “Ferocious” eventually got his shot two months later and made the most of it, dominating Allan Begosso to join brother Javid in the Octagon.
He is the shorter man by two inches.
The only way Blackshear wins this is if Basharat turns out to have atrocious takedown defense, and it’d be a struggle even then. Basharat’s speed, footwork, and fluidity all leave Blackshear’s in the dust. “Da Monster” will have all kinds of trouble just getting to Basharat, much less doing damage while “Ferocious” chews up his legs and body with constant kicks.
Blackshear isn’t a sufficiently fast or skilled striker to capitalize on Basharat’s occasional defensive lapses, nor a sufficiently powerful takedown artist to make up for the fact that he’ll always be a step behind. In short, Basharat out-classes him from bell to bell.
Prediction: Basharat via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Loik Radzhabov vs. Esteban Ribovics
Loik Radzhabov’s (16-4-1) first PFL tournament saw him fall in the finals to Natan Schulte, while his second ended in similarly heartbreaking fashion at the hands of Raush Manfio. He’s fought just once since that 2021 defeat, choking out Zach Zane in his Eagle FC debut.
“Jaguar Paw” steps in for Kamuela Kirk on around a week’s notice.
Esteban Ribovics (11-0) ended a 14-month layoff by knocking out Franco Aranda in 27 seconds to claim the Samurai Fight House Lightweight title. This led to an August 2022 opportunity on Contender Series, where he stopped Thomas Paull via 90-second, contract-winning knockout.
All of his wins have come inside the distance, six of them by knockout.
If Kirk was a stiff test, Radzhabov is a crucible. The Tajik veteran is far and away the best grappler Ribovics has faced in his career, a smothering force that seems perfectly designed to neutralize Ribovics’ high-octane striking offense. “El Gringo’s” takedown defense has been found wanting before, and I’m not convinced his kimura-focused bottom game can hold up at the highest level.
That said, Ribovics is definitely a live dog. Beyond the fact that Radzhabov’s had his share of cardio issues before, Ribovics’ 2:04 of cage time in the last three years means there’s no telling what sort of improvements he’s made to his wrestling. Still, Radzhabov is ridiculously durable and the more proven product, so I’ll lean his way.
Prediction: Radzhabov via split decision
135 lbs.: Cody Garbrandt vs. Trevin Jones
It’s now been more than six years since Cody Garbrandt (12-5) upset Dominick Cruz to claim UFC’s Bantamweight belt. He now sits at 1-5 in his last six bouts, four of those losses coming inside the distance.
UFC 285 ends a nearly 15-month layoff.
Trevin Jones (13-9) burst onto the scene with upset knockouts of Timur Valiev and Mario Bautista, though the former was ultimately overturned because of a failed drug test. His efforts earned him a Murderer’s Row of opponents, resulting in consecutive decision losses to Saidyokub Kakhramonov, Javid Basharat and Raoni Barcelos.
“5 Star” will enjoy more than four inches of reach on Garbrandt.
The saddest thing about Garbrandt’s current state is that he’s clearly trying to make adjustments, tightening up his striking and leaning more on his wrestling, but it’s just not working. While he’s not exactly losing to chumps, there’s the distinct impression that what made him so special is gone for good.
Jones is extremely durable — a functional grappler who possesses sneaky power. At this stage in Garbrandt’s career, that looks like enough to put away “No Love.” Indeed, in the end, Jones clips him inside the first.
Prediction: Jones via first round technical knockout
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185 lbs.: Derek Brunson vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Derek Brunson’s (23-8) unexpected rise into contention appeared to have petered out after a 2-4 skid, only for him to rattle off another five consecutive victories. Then came Jared Cannonier, who came back to stop Brunson late in the second round and secure a title shot.
He has one inch of reach on Dricus Du Plessis (18-2), who is 10 years his junior.
“Stillknocks” — the former EFC and KSW champion — has now won six straight since falling to the lethal Roberto Soldic in their 2018 rematch. His four-fight UFC run most recently saw him choke out Darren Till to secure his second post-fight bonus.
All but one of his wins have come inside the distance, 10 of them by submission.
On the one hand, Du Plessis’ frantic, all-athleticism approach is exactly the sort of style that Brunson has feasted on during his current resurgence. On the other hand, Brunson looked more, well, Brunson than ever against Cannonier. The power and wrestling technique are clearly still there, but the speed’s just about gone and the bad striking habits are more prominent than ever.
I just feel like at this stage in Brunson’s career, he can’t stand up to the younger, faster Du Plessis in a swang-and-bang slugfest. It’s not like Du Plessis is a poor wrestler, either, so Brunson can’t offset the physical discrepancies by turning it into a grind. I’m picturing something a lot like Burnson’s loss to Cannonier, with Du Plessis just having more in the tank after a wild and competitive first round.
Prediction: Du Plessis via second round technical knockout
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125 lbs.: Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas
Viviane Araujo (11-4) battled her way to a 5-2 UFC start highlighted by her one-punch knockout of Talita Bernardo and comeback decision over Andrea Lee. This led to a main event against Alexa Grasso, who out-lasted “Vivi” to a five-round decision win.
Her professional finishes are split 3/4 between knockouts and submissions.
Amanda Ribas (11-3) put a three-year USADA suspension behind her to win her first four UFC bouts, including a dominant decision over then-unbeaten Mackenzie Dern. She’s since dropped two of three, most recently losing a split decision to Katlyn Chookagian.
She gives up one inch of height and two inches of reach to Araujo.
The knock on Araujo has always been her cardio, which once let her down so badly that she lost to Jessica Eye. Though she fell short against an elite striker in Grasso, the fact that she went five good rounds suggests that she might actually be able to sustain her preferred pace now, which is bad news for Ribas. The latter has shown a distinct lack of durability and striking defense during her time in the Octagon, giving the fast, more powerful Araujo a clear path to victory.
It’s all moot if Ribas can take her down and use her impressive top game, of course, but Araujo’s historically stout takedown defense should allow her to strike without fear. In short, “Vivi’s” right hand finally claims another victim in the early going.
Prediction: Araujo via first round technical knockout
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185 lbs.: Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
After stunning Phil Hawes on Contender Series to secure a UFC contract, Julian Marquez (9-3) racked up stoppage wins in three of his first four UFC bouts, all of which earned post-fight honors. A 14-month layoff followed, which ended in June 2022 when Gregory Rodrigues handed “The Cuban Missile Crisis” his first knockout defeat.
He’s scored nine finishes in nine professional victories, five of them via knockout.
Marc-Andre Barriault (14-6) went winless in four UFC bouts before pounding out Abu Azaitar and outlasting Dalcha Lungiambula in succession. His three-fight 2022 campaign featured a submission of Jordan Wright sandwiched between stoppage losses to Chidi Njokuani and Anthony Hernandez.
“Powerbar” will enjoy a two-inch reach advantage despite standing one inch shorter than Marquez.
Assuming Marquez’s bravado is still intact after “Robocop’s” bit of police brutality, we’re in for an absolute slugfest. It will be Marquez’s speed against Barriault’s physicality, and though “Powerbar” has had the rougher go of things in the Octagon, I’m leaning his way largely because of Marquez’s terrible defensive instincts. While I can’t blame him for struggling to get away from Rodrigues after the first two concussions, the man got tagged more than once by Sam Alvey of all people.
Though his opportunistic submission skills and penchant for last-minute heroics give Marquez a good shot, Barriault just seems like the more reliable of the two, especially if he can get the clinch going. In the end, he edges out a 15-minute striking battle.
Prediction: Barriault via split decisionComment -
Gane all day!Comment -
It will be fun to see Jon Jones fight again but this is a massive test at HW and his first fight back in the UFC cage in years. Normally I'd say it's very hard to bet against Bones Jones but in this fight he probably will get touched up standing.Comment -
I am hearing great things about this card but to me if it wasnt for the jones fight this would barely make a fight night card.Comment -
Will Jonny Bones be coked up?Comment -
Gane split decision +900Comment -
That's a tough reach but it could go the distance. Jones says he's gonna wrestle Gane and put him on his back which I'm not so sure about but could happen? If successful on grounding Gane then it might be Bones by decision or by pound out.
This is a tricky fight to call just because Jones has been out so long and going up to HW. I'm actually a little sketchy to bet on it. If the old Jon Jones shows up Gane might get smoked.
Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-03-23, 09:31 PM.Comment -
Jones looks a little fat and soft at weigh ins. Smaller as well..
Weight ins.
Fast forward to the end to see Jones and Ganes weigh ins..
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Jon Jones on that Pizza Hut dietComment -
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Imagine betting the FrenchComment -
I'll sprinkle on Jones split +700 too. He hasn't stopped anyone in 10 years, looked like utter shit in his last few fights, hasn't fought in 3 years and is moving up; and we don't know how he'll take HW power. Jones may win but this is not something I'm overly confident in and I'm not convinced he can outwork Gane on the outside. This will be a close chess match and may be a 5-round standup fight. We'll see. I also don't like that Jones is in various 'boosts' on books with Valentina and Shavkat. Maybe one of those 2 lose, I'd lean Valentina moreso but I doubt either do. We'll see. Good luck either way!That's a tough reach but it could go the distance. Jones says he's gonna wrestle Gane and put him on his back which I'm not so sure about but could happen? If successful on grounding Gane then it might be Bones by decision or by pound out.
This is a tricky fight to call just because Jones has been out so long and going up to HW. I'm actually a little sketchy to bet on it. If the old Jon Jones shows up Gane might get smoked.
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Man I can't wait to watch ciryl Gane win tonight!!Comment -
Who's Bo Nickel? What's the story behind his hype?Comment -
It was fun watching him in his two Dana White Contender series fights.
I’m excited to watch him put on another show tonight.Comment -
All dogs,screw it let's do it
Jalin Turner
+185
Trevin Jones
+145
Julian Marquez
+125
Geoff Neal
+390
Leomana Martinez
+210
Derek Brunson
+180Comment -
Nickal sub round 1 +100Comment -
Might take Gane
Jones look fat u guys sayComment -
Game time almost good luck fellas. Let's win some money!
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HahaComment -
The world is going to get introduced to Rakhmonov tonight. Got him -180 ITD and +170 by submision. Guy is a monster.
Last edited by Kermit; 03-04-23, 05:28 PM.Comment -
1 close fight out of all of them. There is a reason one fight is -900 and the other is -2000. It is a shit main card except for jones and Gamrot fight should be good. Brunson should have been on the main card. That should be a banger and Brunson has a real shot if he fights smart which im not to sure he does.Comment -
has their been any news on why Neal decided to come in heavy? This doesn't sound good for him because it is uncharacteristic for him. Prolly has some injury only Jeff Kraus knows about.Comment
