UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley

**povis** · 08-19-23, 07:39 AM

Vera is notoriously slow starter I do think Moroz is good play at dog odds. I betting Aljo don't see Sean stopping all takedowns.

**JC2008** · 08-19-23, 07:47 AM

Originally posted by povis

Vera is notoriously slow starter I do think Moroz is good play at dog odds. I betting Aljo don't see Sean stopping all takedowns.

Munhoz is definitely LIVE IMO. As is Lemos. As is O'Malley.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 08-19-23, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by povis

Vera is notoriously slow starter I do think Moroz is good play at dog odds. I betting Aljo don't see Sean stopping all takedowns.

I can't either.

Yan took Omalley down and Sterling is a way better grappler and stronger than him.

**Thor4140** · 08-19-23, 09:56 AM

I guess Dana is seeing if Omalley can carry a card or he is burying Sterling cause to me this card blows. Co and main events to me is all i see. Vera fight is okay. Joke

**Optional** · 08-19-23, 10:27 AM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“Sugar” Sean O’Malley is looking for the highlight of the night tomorrow at UFC 292. <br><br>Although we're pretty sure “poop stain” isn't Aljamain Sterling’s nickname. ��<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UFC292?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >#UFC292</a> <br> <a href="https://t.co/MzehDV8e1R">pic.twitter.com/MzehDV8e1R</a></p>— Sportsbook Review (@SBRReview) <a href="https://twitter.com/SBRReview/status/1692667561026912283?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >August 18, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-19-23, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by JC2008

Who does everyone like tonight? I'm eyeing Moroz as a slight +110 dog to open up the night. Maybe decision +200 as well.

JC, good Luck. Hope you nail this play.

Few questions/comments about UFC lines:
1) How do you do +/-$$ on UFC bets over time?
2) IMHO, the OPENING lines for UFC sometimes aren't so good. Sort of like NFL, by Sunday gameday the # is hammered out and sharp.
3) Do you know OTHER guys who clear a profit in UFC?
4) Would seem to me that the books LOVE to write UFC tickets. Most viewers have an opinion. If you're watching, you want some action.
5) Lastly, are there any RATING VARIABLES that you like to target? In Boxing, REACH was key b/c the longer arms usually won. In UFC, imho the wrestling background fighters do the best b/c of their preparation.

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Optional

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“Sugar” Sean O’Malley is looking for the highlight of the night tomorrow at UFC 292. <br><br>Although we're pretty sure “poop stain” isn't Aljamain Sterling’s nickname. ��<a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UFC292?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >#UFC292</a> <br> <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/MzehDV8e1R">pic.twitter.com/MzehDV8e1R</a></p>— Sportsbook Review (@SBRReview) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/SBRReview/status/1692667561026912283?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >August 18, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tutti Frutti thinks he's going to win... lol

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

JC, good Luck. Hope you nail this play.

Few questions/comments about UFC lines:
1) How do you do +/-$$ on UFC bets over time?
2) IMHO, the OPENING lines for UFC sometimes aren't so good. Sort of like NFL, by Sunday gameday the # is hammered out and sharp.
3) Do you know OTHER guys who clear a profit in UFC?
4) Would seem to me that the books LOVE to write UFC tickets. Most viewers have an opinion. If you're watching, you want some action.
5) Lastly, are there any RATING VARIABLES that you like to target? In Boxing, REACH was key b/c the longer arms usually won. In UFC, imho the wrestling background fighters do the best b/c of their preparation.

1) Someone, and I think it was JJ, asked about this (or gave an opinion on it) and I believe betting on either + or - in the long run is losing proposition, either way.

3) That poster who used to always create a thread for every UFC event, I thought he always did well.

5) I look for finisher as in the long run they'll win even if it goes to the judges. But then again, finishers are generally the favs... lol

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 12:26 PM

I think all favs will win today... a complete sweep. $25/$6917.41

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

I think all favs will win today... a complete sweep. $25/$6917.41

Phew! Thank you for cash out! I had Magny +375. $25/$1728.87

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-19-23, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

I think all favs will win today... a complete sweep. $25/$6917.41

Good Luck, Head. Good info from you.

You know...Coll FB sometimes turns into a Fav ATS game. These teams are well-known. Oddsmakers don't bloat the #s as much anymore.

Talent goes deep to the name teams, so much so that their 3rd team would beat the Opposition starters. Sometimes, these games became a Name Your Score game. See the Michigan games from last SEPT.

Your comment about Finishers is interesting. If you can identify a Key rating variable, you may do well.

Also, UFC guys talked about the Round Over/Under. Feeling was that a certain matchup could easily dictate a long/short match.

**JC2008** · 08-19-23, 01:46 PM

A lot of books on their boosted odds have Zhang, Sterling, and Garry to win. One of those 3 have a good chance of losing.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 08-19-23, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Phew! Thank you for cash out! I had Magny +375. $25/$1728.87

I'd love to see Magny starch and humble this Garry character.

I said before his last fight that i thought Garry was overrated and he had a great showing and a finish. I still do not like him, dude thinks he is Conor McGregor and is too cocky for my taste. Hopefully he gets served some humble pie sooner than later.

**JC2008** · 08-19-23, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

JC, good Luck. Hope you nail this play.

1) How do you do +/-$$ on UFC bets over time?
2) IMHO, the OPENING lines for UFC sometimes aren't so good. Sort of like NFL, by Sunday gameday the # is hammered out and sharp.
3) Do you know OTHER guys who clear a profit in UFC?
4) Would seem to me that the books LOVE to write UFC tickets. Most viewers have an opinion. If you're watching, you want some action.
5) Lastly, are there any RATING VARIABLES that you like to target? In Boxing, REACH was key b/c the longer arms usually won. In UFC, imho the wrestling background fighters do the best b/c of their preparation.

1. I'm not a good person to ask because I am a high-volume hedge parlay bettor and things I've noticed have changed since Joe Silva stopped being the primary matchmaker for the UFC. I will say now that I notice the underdogs in the final two fights win more often than not. . .

2. Matchmakers aren't perfect or psychic so I've seen some error-prone lines before. Betting on the UFC now is a lot different than it was 10-15 years ago and a lot more people are doing it so we're now seeing more and more shady decisions taking place.

3. There are some solid bettors at sherdog.com but I don't know anybody personally.

4. I think the books make a lot of money off lost prop tickets from UFC fights but I don't know that for sure. Parlays too, of course. I agree most viewers have an opinion on who will win the fight and having action on said fight (or any sport) makes watching it infinitely more interesting.

5. Boxing is my favorite sport and I agree reach plays a part but it's only one of many factors that matter. Wrestlers do well consistently because of their preparation as you said but also their conditioning and the fact that they can generally take you down whenever they want.

**RussianMike** · 08-19-23, 02:36 PM

Two flier bets for the okie-doke

Not a bad idea to throw down something on OMalley by decision and even Weidman decision since he's fighting at home. In anticipation of the ever-present UFC okie-doke judges. Although they unfortunately aren't as much of a lock as those wankers across the ocean are.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-19-23, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by JC2008

1. I'm not a good person to ask because I am a high-volume hedge parlay bettor and things I've noticed have changed since Joe Silva stopped being the primary matchmaker for the UFC. I will say now that I notice the underdogs in the final two fights win more often than not. . .

2. Matchmakers aren't perfect or psychic so I've seen some error-prone lines before. Betting on the UFC now is a lot different than it was 10-15 years ago and a lot more people are doing it so we're now seeing more and more shady decisions taking place.

3. There are some solid bettors at sherdog.com but I don't know anybody personally.

4. I think the books make a lot of money off lost prop tickets from UFC fights but I don't know that for sure. Parlays too, of course. I agree most viewers have an opinion on who will win the fight and having action on said fight (or any sport) makes watching it infinitely more interesting.

5. Boxing is my favorite sport and I agree reach plays a part but it's only one of many factors that matter. Wrestlers do well consistently because of their preparation as you said but also their conditioning and the fact that they can generally take you down whenever they want.

Thanks for the reply. Good stuff.

I'm always interested in the science of handicapping. My friend tried to get me into UFC. I just can't keep up with all the names.

1) Sounds like you're having fun with it.
2) Exactly, the oddsmakers aren't perfect. And I'd say their UFC knowledge is < the hardcore UFC fans. I see the openers move a good bit by the day of fight.
3) Nice.
4) I have to think the book Profit Margin on UFC is very good. So many recreational bettors.
5) Wrestling is a grueling sport. Their preparation is 2nd nature.

**JC2008** · 08-19-23, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Thanks for the reply. Good stuff.

I'm always interested in the science of handicapping. My friend tried to get me into UFC. I just can't keep up with all the names.

1) Sounds like you're having fun with it.
2) Exactly, the oddsmakers aren't perfect. And I'd say their UFC knowledge is < the hardcore UFC fans. I see the openers move a good bit by the day of fight.
3) Nice.
4) I have to think the book Profit Margin on UFC is very good. So many recreational bettors.
5) Wrestling is a grueling sport. Their preparation is 2nd nature.

My main advice for betting on UFC or MMA is to remember that it's a fight at the end of the day. Take the underdog. A lot of fights entail a +200 underdog looking like a -250 favorite. Look for great numbers/hedge opportunities with LIVE betting.

**pavyracer** · 08-19-23, 04:01 PM

You bet dogs between +110 to +190 and favs on every other scenario. Only way to make money in UFC.

**Allure** · 08-19-23, 04:39 PM

That skinny clown won't KO anyone. He couldn't even KO Moutinho on his debut and that guy is an Uber driver or works at Walmart.

And that clown is going to KO Aljo? Aljo will ride him doggy style in all rounds, how the fukk is the clown going to stop the constant take downs? Far better grapplers couldn't and this skinny clown is no different.

Btw, the skinny clown is already publicly praying for Chito to win as he will try everything to avoid Merab who will make that clown his wife.

**fudy213** · 08-19-23, 05:03 PM

Maybe a live dog is Holabaugh at +145 in one of the TUF finals. Guy looked rock solid last time out and the guy hes fighting looked awful. Was surprised he was a dog here. Also the other TUF fight to go over 2 1/2 rounds. See that as a decision. Will be playing Holabaugh small and Sterling medium.

**Goodtimemafiaz** · 08-19-23, 05:37 PM

Headsterx...u like silva or Moroz?

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by Goodtimemafiaz

Headsterx...u like silva or Moroz?

All favs so Silva… 1 down and 11 to go

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 06:37 PM

Another Silva another win… 2 down and 10 to go

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 06:38 PM

GM +200 built to last?

**JC2008** · 08-19-23, 07:00 PM

Next. . .

**JIBBBY** · 08-19-23, 07:05 PM

Gotta fade the vet Chris Weidman. Could be free money. Brad probably knocks him out. I have zero faith in Chris anymore. I like him though as dude.

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

GM +200 built to last?

Damn, that was close w/ SD... 3 down and 9 to go

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 07:14 PM

Can the American Cody +152 end the streak? I don't trust those damn Canadians... lol

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 07:21 PM

Cody is gonna win this one.

**JC2008** · 08-19-23, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Can the American Cody +152 end the streak? I don't trust those damn Canadians... lol

Hey now. We're not ALL that bad .

**Eric Cohen** · 08-19-23, 07:32 PM

what a fight

**JC2008** · 08-19-23, 07:34 PM

Insane fight and only the prelims!

**JIBBBY** · 08-19-23, 07:34 PM

That was a fight!

**Headsterx** · 08-19-23, 07:38 PM

I can't believe that Canadian won... 4 down and 8 to go