UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall (March 19, 2022)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall
Dan Hooker vs. Arnold Allen
Paddy Pimblett vs. Rodrigo Vargas
Gunnar Nelson vs. Takashi Soto
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Paul Craig vs. Nikita Krylov

ESPN+ 1:00 pm ET
Jack Shore vs. Timur Valiev
Luana Carolina vs. Molly McCann
Cody Durden vs. Muhammad Mokaev
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Mike Grundy
Cory McKenna vs. Elise Reed
Vince Morales vs. Nathaniel Wood
Jai Herbert vs. Ilia Topuria

[GunShard]

Muhammad Mokaev is Khabib 2.0

[JIBBBY]

Big test and step up in competition for Aspinall in Volkov. I think you still have to go with him at those odds.

He's a tough bastard!! That's a good fight though.

[magpie878]

I'm very curious to see how Aspinall does against a veteran like Volkov after subbing Arlovski, who basically angrily quit.. and easily disposing to Spivak. I'd like to see Aspinall win, he's won me a decent amount of money so far.

[Thrilla]

England card with no Till? wtf

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'm very curious to see how Aspinall does against a veteran like Volkov after subbing Arlovski, who basically angrily quit.. and easily disposing to Spivak. I'd like to see Aspinall win, he's won me a decent amount of money so far.

I like Aspinall here. His movement, quickness and power will be too much.

[JIBBBY]

England card with no Till? wtf

Yep... Bad for business.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelim write ups -






125 lbs.: Molly McCann vs. Luana Carolina

A three-fight UFC win streak for Molly McCann (11-4) gave way to consecutive losses to Taila Santos and Lara Procopio, dropping her Octagon record to .500. Undaunted, she warred her way past Ji Yeon Kim to claim both a unanimous decision and “Fight of the Night” in Sept. 2021.
“Meatball” has ended four professional fights via knockout.
Luana Carolina (8-2) defeated Mabelly Lima on Contender Series and Priscila Cachoeira in the Octagon before suffering a gruesome kneebar loss to Ariane Lipski. After almost 10 months on the shelf, she returned to the win column by upsetting both Poliana Botelho and Lupita Godinez in sequence.
“Dread” is the taller of the two by two inches and sports a seven-inch reach advantage.
What sank Godinez in that fight was her insistence on chasing takedowns even when Carolina caught onto her tricks. “Loopy” actually does possess some strong boxing, but seemed reluctant to use it against her larger foe. That won’t be a problem for McCann, who landed more than 100 significant strikes in each of her four UFC victories. Her blend of high-volume boxing and developing wrestling should give Carolina all sorts of issues considering how often Godinez managed to get inside of the Brazilian’s reach.
Carolina is unquestionably a stronger fighter than she’s given credit for, but the McCann who warred her way past Kim can find tons of success with that same approach. In the end, output, the occasional level change and raw aggression should carry “Meatball” to victory.
Prediction: McCann via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Volkov Battles Aspinall In London!

135 lbs.: Jack Shore vs. Timur Valiev

Wales’ Jack Shore (15-0) established himself as one of the UK’s best with a destructive run in Cage Warriors, where he won and defended the Bantamweight title before making the jump to the Octagon. “Tank” has been similarly effective there, claiming victory in all four of his UFC appearances.
His 12 professional finishes are split 8/4 between submissions and knockouts.
The disastrous knockout loss to Trevin Jones in the Octagon debut of Timur Valiev (18-2) became a “No Contest” after Jones failed a drug test, keeping “Lucky’s” unbeaten streak intact. He has since extended it to nine with decision wins over Martin Day and Raoni Barcelos, the latter of which earned him a “Performance of the Night” bonus.
He gives up two inches of height and four inches of reach to Shore.
Speed looks like the deciding factor here. Valiev’s footwork and rapid-fire combinations look like more than Shore’s technically sound kickboxing can handle, and though “Lucky” has proven concerningly fragile during his Octagon tenure, Shore ostensibly doesn’t have the one-shot power to put him away.
Shore’s best weapon is his top game, which Valiev’s own excellent wrestling figures to take off the table even if the Dagestani can’t land takedowns of his own. In the end, expect a high-paced striking battle in which Valiev’s output, movement and general quickness win the day.
Prediction: Valiev via unanimous decision
Related
UFC London Poster Drops For ‘Volkov vs Aspinall’

125 lbs.: Cory McKenna vs. Elise Reed

Cory McKenna (6-1) went 4-1 under the Cage Warriors banner before out-grappling the dangerous Vanessa Demopoulos to claim a contract on Contender Series. Three months later, “Poppins” successfully debuted in the Octagon with a narrow decision over fellow young gun Kay Hansen.
This will be her first fight in 16 months, as she withdrew from a planned Sept. 2021 clash with Emily Whitmire.
Elise Reed (4-1) edged out future Contender Series graduate Jasmine Jasudavicius to claim Cage Fury gold in her second pro fight, then defeated Jillian DeCoursey and Hilarie Rose in a pair of title defenses. This set up a late-notice clash with the much larger Sijara Eubanks, who pounded out Reed late in the first round.
She has scored two knockouts as a professional.
It’s worth stating that Reed was a former Atomweight taking on a natural Bantamweight in her UFC debut. She’s very capable when fighting women her size, and I expect a much stronger performance from her this time around.
I still don’t think she’ll win, though. Though less adept with her kicks, McKenna has a clear edge in hand speed and on the ground. So long as McKenna stays on the front foot, smothers Reed’s kicks, and threatens takedowns, she’s got the tools to win this. I say she does, blending striking and wrestling to take a clear decision.
Prediction: McKenna via unanimous decision
Related
War With Ukraine May Stop Russian Fighters From Competing At UFC London

135 lbs.: Nathaniel Wood vs. Vince Morales

Nathanial Wood (17-5) lived up to his “Prospect” moniker with three consecutive submission wins in the Octagon, one of which earned him “Performance of the Night.” He now sits at 1-2 in his last three, a decision over John Castaneda sandwiched between losses to John Lineker and Casey Kenney.
This marks his first appearance in nearly 17 months.
Vince Morales (11-5) stumbled out of the UFC gate with losses in three of his first four appearances, among them a leg kick technical knockout courtesy of Chris Gutierrez. Then came consecutive victories over Drako Rodriguez and Louis Smolka, the latter of which marked his first knockout win since 2018.
“Vandetta” steps in for Liudvik Sholinian on two weeks’ notice.
The one-note Sholinian would have likely been easy pickings for Wood, and though Morales presents a very different sort of challenge, it’s still “the Prospect’s” fight. Wood regularly shows off the powerful ground work and thudding low kicks that have given Morales so much trouble in the past, giving him multiple avenues to victory. The only real threat is Morales’ sledgehammer right hand, which “Vandetta” has struggled to land with any consistency in the Octagon.
Even if Wood peaks below the Top 10, he’s more than proven his ability to handle Morales-level fighters. In short, he tears up the latter’s legs and dominates him on the mat for either a wide decision or late stoppage.
Prediction: Wood via second round submission




155 lbs.: Jai Herbert vs. Ilia Topuria

Jai Herbert (11-3) entered the Octagon as the Cage Warriors Lightweight champion, only to suffer stoppage losses to Francisco Trinaldo and Renato Moicano in his first two UFC efforts. The third time proved the charm, however, as “The Black Country Banger” smashed Khama Worthy midway through the first round.
Nine of his 10 stoppage wins have come by knockout.
Ilia Topuria (11-0) battered his way to victory in his first three UFC appearances, among them brutal knockouts of Damon Jackson and Ryan Hall. He was slated to make his fourth Octagon walk against late replacement Charles Jourdain in Jan. 2022, but a botched weight cut both scrapped the fight and prompted a move up to 155 pounds.
“El Matador” steps in for Mike Davis on just over one month’s notice.
I get that Herbert was a titlist in a well-regarded organization and thus merited a toss into the deep end, but fighting Trinaldo, Moicano, and Topuria in three of his first four UFC fights just seems cruel. His punching power and hypothetical size advantage isn’t enough to save him from a toxic style matchup; Topuria both hits hard enough to exploit Herbert’s defensive lapses and sports the venomous grappling to run him over on the mat.
Unless Topuria winds up massively undersized, it’s his fight to lose. In the end, he bullies Herbert to the fence, drags him to the mat and snatches up his neck before long.
Prediction: Topuria via first round submission
Related
Up Next! Volkov Battles Aspinall In London!

125 lbs.: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Cody Durden

The 21-year-old Muhammad Mokaev (6-0) amassed an eye-popping 23-0 amateur record before turning professional in 2020. He proceeded to make his name under the Brave CF banner, most recently choking out SBG’s Blaine O’Driscoll in Sept. 2021.
He stands two inches taller than Cody Durden (12-3-1) at 5’9.”
Durden took a while to find his footing in the Octagon, fighting Chris Gutierrez to a draw in his debut before getting caught by a flying triangle from Jimmy Flick. He made his first appearance in UFC’s win column against Aoriqileng, whom he out-lasted to claim just his second decision victory as a professional.
He haas knocked out and submitted five professional foes apiece.
I actually like the matchmaking here. Mokaev — though a terrific talent who’s already realized a good chunk of his considerable potential — has some grappling liabilities that the well-credentialed Durden could potentially exploit. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Durden out-muscle him in the early going and keep him stuck on his back.
It would, however, surprise me to see Durden maintain that. He gassed badly after a single round against Aoriqileng and only emerged victorious because of the latter’s mental lapses. Mokaev’s proven able to push a hard pace for 15 minutes, meaning the fight will tilt more and more in his favor as the rounds go by. He bounces back from a rough first round to wear down Durden with scrambles and snowball to a decisive victory.
Prediction: Mokaev via unanimous decision
Related
UFC London Poster Drops For ‘Volkov vs Aspinall’

145 lbs.: Mike Grundy vs. Makwan Amirkhani

Despite entering the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion in the midst of a lengthy layoff, Mike Grundy (12-3) started his UFC run strong, knocking out Nad Narimani late in the second round. He’s yet to taste victory since, dropping decisions to division standouts Movsar Evloev and Lando Vannata.
He stands three inches shorter than “Mr. Finland,” but boasts an identical reach.
Makwan Amirkhani (16-7) established himself as a Featherweight to watch with wins in six of his first eight UFC bouts, two of which earned him “Performance of the Night.” He enters Saturday’s bout in the midst of a three-fight losing streak, however, including a brutal knee knockout courtesy of Lerone Murphy last time out.
He’s ended 12 professional fights inside the distance, 11 via submission.
The book is out on Amirkhani at this point. He’s a marvelous wrestler and submission artist with no stand up and one (maybe 1.5) rounds of cardio. Honestly, though, that may be enough here because Grundy is just about as one-note with his approach. And based on their respective performances in the Octagon, I actually like Amirkhani to win a ground battle.
Grundy’s gas tank is the X-factor, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him force some scrambles and survive some rough patches to take over down the stretch. I just don’t think he’s got the goods to beat Amirkhani in the latter’s wheelhouse. In short, “Mr. Finland” finds his neck early and snaps his losing streak.
Prediction: Amirkhani via first round submission

[JIBBBY]

Main card x factor write ups -


Lightweight: Paddy Pimblett vs. Rodrigo Vargas

Best Win for Pimblett? Luigi Vendramini For Vargas? Rong Zhu
Current Streak: Pimblett recently won his UFC debut, whereas Vargas picked up his first UFC win last time out
X-Factor: Will Vargas commit a flagrant violation of the rules?
How these two match up: It’s not exactly a step up for Pimblett, but it should be a fun fight.
Pimblett has a ton of hype behind him, but it remains to be seen how much of it is justified. Though he’s got some power in his hands, the English talent is definitely hittable, and he’s generally better off dragging foes to the mat and jumping on their backs.
Vargas seems to be a slightly better fighter than his UFC record (1-2) would indicate. A physical fighter with power in his hands and solid wrestling technique, Vargas seems to struggle more to pace himself and fight in an appropriately measured fashion than anything else.
As such, this is a dangerous fight for Pimblett. If a haymaker connects, it could be lights out, and Vargas might just have the wrestling to replicate Nad Narimani’s success back in Cage Warriors by grinding out “The Baddy.”
Unfortunately for “Kazula,” Pimblett is dangerous. If the two are grappling, Pimblett stands a fair shot at gaining top position at some point and locking up the neck. If at any point Vargas starts slowing down, expect Pimblett to jump on him with power punches.
In short, Vargas starts strong, but eventually plays right into Pimblett’s hands.
Prediction: Pimblett via submission
Related
Video: Topuria Throws Punch At Pimblett In Host Hotel

---

Heavyweight: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov

Best Win for Pimblett? Maurice Greene For Abdurakhimov? Marcin Tybura
Current Streak: Pavlovich has won two straight, whereas Abdurakhimov has lost two in a row
X-Factor: Heavyweight knockout power
How these two match up: This is a good old fashion crossroads fight.
Pavlovich will fulfill the role of up-and-comer. Since stumbling out of the gate versus Alistair Overeem — understandable! — the 29-year-old Russian athlete has smashed his opponents to bits. He’s a skilled Greco-Roman wrestler with some very solid hands, which has resulted in 11 knockout wins. Ranked at No. 10 and more than one decade older, Abdurakhimov is the bonafide veteran. With a background in Sanda and kickboxing, “Abrek” is a dangerous striker in his own right, though he’s equally willing to wrestle when appropriate.
In summary, we have a wrestler with pretty solid kickboxing facing off opposite a kickboxer with rather decent takedown skills.
It’s been well over two years since Pavlovich was last seen in the cage, which definitely casts some questions over this fight. However, there’s a reason the former Fight Nights Global champ had a lot of hype behind him back when he debuted. He’s a serious prospect among the big men, an actual athlete who has the skills to back up that physicality.
Abdurakhimov is crafty, but he’s not overwhelmingly good in any area. Plus, he struggled mightily with Curtis Bladyes’ takedowns and top control, so expect a similar gameplan from Pavlovich.
Prediction: Pavlovich via knockout
Related
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Predictions! UFC London ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2

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Light Heavyweight: Nikita Krylov vs. Paul Craig

Best Win for Krylov? Johnny Walker For Craig? Magomed Ankalaev
Current Streak: Krylov came up short last time out, whereas Craig is unbeaten in his last five fights
X-Factor: Craig is willing to give up position in pursuit of the finish
How these two match up: There’s zero chance this isn’t a hugely fun grappling match.
Krylov has a background in Kyokushin karate, and he’s got the sneaky high kicks to prove it. For whatever reason, the 30-year-old Ukranian more often finds himself wrestling. Fortunately, he’s proven to be quite a good grinder, out-hustling opponents and wrangling the neck if given an opportunity.
Whether submission or knockout, all but one of his 26 victories came before the bell.
Craig, meanwhile, is unexpectedly on the best win streak of his career by a long shot. The submission ace has been fighting with more confidence, and it’s paying dividends. His stand up is looking better, and he remains the most volatile guard player at 205 lbs.
Though it would likely behoove Krylov to keep this one standing, there’s little chance that he can force himself to avoid grappling with Craig. It’s not his style to disengage; he’s going to fight fire with fire. The question, then, is will it work?
Krylov is objectively the better wrestler, but he’s also the sloppier grappler more likely to get swept or leave his neck out there. Typically, it’s safer to bet on the wrestler not getting submitted, but given Krylov’s tendency to make weird decisions paired with Craig’s opportunism, I’ll be going the opposite direction this time.
Prediction: Craig via submission
Related
Up Next! Volkov Battles Aspinall In London!

---

Welterweight: Gunnar Nelson vs. Takashi Sato

Best Win for Nelson? Albert Tumenov For Sato? Jason Witt
Current Streak: Nelson has lost two in a row, while Sato came up short last time out
X-Factor: Nelson has been sidelined since September 2019
How these two match up: This is a clear-cut striker vs. grappler fight.
At one point, Nelson had a ton of hype behind him as a future contender, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace with slick Karate skill. Such predictions haven’t quite come to pass, but Nelson has only really lost to excellent fighters and top-ranked Welterweights. He remains a calculated and dangerous fighter, as well as one of the more unique stylistic threats on the roster.
Sato may have a black belt in Judo, but the Southpaw is better known for putting his left hand through jaws. The man hits very hard, though he’s struggled a bit with his submission defense from bottom position.
Sato accepted this fight on less than two week’s notice.
Even if there was a full camp behind him, this reads like an awful match up for Sato. Nelson is not a grinding wrestler quite like Belal Muhammad, but “Gunni” does time his shots exceptionally well, and once in top position, his control is elite.
Likely, it takes just a single successful takedown for the second-degree black belt to return to the win column in style.
Prediction: Nelson via submission

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Big KO...

[GunShard]

Topuria knocked him the fk out

[Kermit]

Topuria knocked him the fk out

Brutal.

[Kermit]

Devastating spinning elbow by Meatballs.

[hwgfb]

will Allen Hooker Fight go the Distance?

[JIBBBY]

Brits are representing in England.

[Kermit]

will Allen Hooker Fight go the Distance?

Hope not. I have it ITD with the 2nd quarter of this T-volves/Grizz game over 59.

[Kermit]

Brits are representing in England.

Paddy was like

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

dear god, what a fire fight

[Allure]

Lol the Hooker shouldn't find anyone in Top 10 anymore, regardless of the division. Getting steamrolled by everyone at this point.

[Kermit]

Lol the Hooker shouldn't find anyone in Top 10 anymore, regardless of the division. Getting steamrolled by everyone at this point.

Yeah, I think that he lost 4 of his last 5 now.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Lol the Hooker shouldn't find anyone in Top 10 anymore, regardless of the division. Getting steamrolled by everyone at this point.

He probably shouldn’t be fighting anyone anymore period

Hang em up

[JIBBBY]

Brits continue to dominate in this event. One more to go.

[Kermit]

Man, I need Aspinall to win by sub to hit a crazy +11038 parlay.

[JIBBBY]

Paddy was like

Paddy took a solid shot early on and he's lucky he didn't get slept before he came back and won.

[Kermit]

Paddy took a solid shot early on and lucky he didn't get dropped before he came back and won.

He got hurt in his last fight too. I think Topuria will wreck him.

[JIBBBY]

Man, I need Aspinall to win by sub to hit a crazy +11038 parlay.

GL. I got Aspinall by KO myself.

[Kermit]

GL. I got Aspinall by KO myself.

If Aspinall can finish this fight, this will be the most I've won betting UFC. I have him ITD in several parlays.

[JIBBBY]

If Aspinall can finish this fight, this will be the most I've won betting UFC. I have him ITD in several parlays.

Nice Kermy! I'm rooting for you then!

I haven't matched my biggest UFC event win in a few years. That's exiting when it happens.

[Kermit]

Nice Kermy! I'm rooting for you then!

I haven't matched my biggest UFC event win in a few years. That's exiting when it happens.

Had to hedge a bit on Drago ITD +260 to at least win my initial wagers back.

[Allure]

Paddy will be finished real soon. He barely escaped two KO's in both of his fights which were against "nobody's".
I mean at least Conor had a lot to back up his show/hype.

[Allure]

Aspinall let's go.

[JIBBBY]

Man, I need Aspinall to win by sub to hit a crazy +11038 parlay.

....

[Kermit]

Tom Fukkin Aspinall

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Tom Fukkin Aspinall

[Optional]

In case anyone is interested seeing these late...

UFC Fight Night Splits
Fighters	Odds	% Handle	% Bets
Muhammad Mokaev	-490	83%	88%
Cody Durden	+360	17%	12%
Cory McKenna	-290	92%	83%
Elise Reed	+230	8%	17%
Jack Shore	-110	64%	71%
Timur Valiev	-110	36%	29%
Nikita Krylov	-210	31%	60%
Paul Craig	+175	69%	40%
Shamil Abdurakhimov	+270	23%	6%
Sergey Pavlovich	-350	77%	94%
Mike Grundy	-200	73%	78%
Makwan Amirkhani	+170	27%	22%
Jai Herbert	+435	15%	8%
Ilia Topuria	-600	85%	92%
Molly McCann	-140	68%	74%
Luana Carolina	+120	32%	26%
Gunnar Nelson	-525	63%	91%
Takashi Sato	+385	37%	9%
Paddy Pimblett	-675	81%	92%
Rodrigo Kazula Vargas	+475	19%	8%
Arnold Allen	-115	56%	38%
Daniel Hooker	-105	44%	62%
Alexander Volkov	+105	13%	37%
Tom Aspinall	-125	87%	63%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook