Boxing/MMA PLAYS

**illmatick** · 05-31-10, 06:22 PM

really don't see cotto finishing the fight here, free action imo, will do a full writeup the day of the fight, might even add to my position on cotto

cotto by 12 round decision +189 x.5 (5dimes)
Yuri Foreman +185 x.5 (sportsbook.com)

**doubleleg** · 06-01-10, 12:22 AM

I don't feel really confident with Spencer Fisher. That'll be a close fight.

**HauntingTheHoly** · 06-01-10, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

really don't see cotto finishing the fight here, free action imo, will do a full writeup the day of the fight, might even add to my position on cotto

cotto by 12 round decision +189 x.5 (5dimes)
Yuri Foreman +185 x.5 (sportsbook.com)

I don't understand this. Are you saying Cotto gets knocked out, or will win by decision? Or something else? I especially don't understand the "x.5" in those two lines, what does that mean? I have sportsbook (PlayersOnly) and it lists Foreman at +185.

**illmatick** · 06-01-10, 05:27 AM

no I'm saying If Cotto wins by decision or if Yuri foreman just wins I'm guaranteed a profit, the only way I lose money is if Cotto knocks Yuri out

the .5 means a half unit play for me

5 dimes has the best boxing props

**illmatick** · 06-01-10, 05:06 PM

Roman Karmazin +250 x.25

what we have here is the more skilled fighter at plus money, Roman pulled off a thrilling comeback against a highly touted fighter in his last fight, at age 37 time is certainly starting to catch up with him, foot speed and punch resistance are two things that were proven to be faltering at this stage in his career in his last fight, Roman was rocked several times but did an excellent job of weathering the storm each time. Roman has always been highly touted but never really lived up to the hype after losing to spinks, he posses a very crafty left hand, shifts to his right hand very nicely and can be quite deceptive with his hook at times, at 37 he still showed a little bit of that deception and speed against Miranda, being backed by Freddie Roach should be a huge plus going into the fight as well

his opp . Sebastian Sylvester is a good fighter but doesn't really do any one thing great, of course he will have youth and tenacity on his side but I'm not sure thats enough here, he does keep a high solid guard and does a nice job at deflecting punches but against some of the better fighters he's faced he seems to fall in love a little too much with his guard , often times not putting out a significant amount of offense early in the fight, which is something Roman will have to take advantage of early on if he wants any hope of taking a decision. Imo Sebastian's best hope for this fight is a late TKO or another razor close decision similar to the one he received against Lorenzo, Roman should have more than enough tools to out point him for 12 rounds, not to mention he will have a significant height advantage which should allow him to keep Sebas at the end of his punches, even though Sebastian is a bit short for the division he doesn't really fight all that great on the inside, relies more on timing, patience and well selected punches to break down his larger opponents

**HauntingTheHoly** · 06-01-10, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

no I'm saying If Cotto wins by decision or if Yuri foreman just wins I'm guaranteed a profit, the only way I lose money is if Cotto knocks Yuri out

the .5 means a half unit play for me

5 dimes has the best boxing props

Interesting. I guess you didn't think it was worth the risk by being just on one side of the fight. Do you straddle most of your boxing bets like this? I only straddle in very rare cases, thinking I will make just as much or more in the long run by getting better return on something I think is "pretty" likely. In this case I've bet Yuri to win, but my two online books don't offer specific outcome until closer to the fight.

So you say 5 dimes is the best because they offer the lines sooner, or do you also find that the lines are better? What do they have Yuri to win the fight at right now?

**illmatick** · 06-01-10, 08:28 PM

5 dimes is the best book because they offer the most betting selections ans most parlay options, also have reduced juice on most sports..... the line right now is Cotto -210 and Yuri +175

usually don't straddle like this but it's hard for me to take a strong position on this fight considering the beating Cotto is coming off of against pacman, looks like I jumped too early on Cotto by decision, sitting at +216 right now

what's your reasoning for backing Yuri, always like hearing other people's opinions on fights

**Cookie Monster** · 06-01-10, 11:57 PM

Cotto is a class above Foreman, but he enters the fight with some question marks. He may be damaged goods, after the shellacking by Pacquiao. Cotto is smaller than Foreman, and the style of the champion may be difficult for him. In the other hand, maybe Steward can benefit Cotto, as he has worked with Foreman before. Difficult fight to pick, but I see good value in Foreman +180. The odds have been drifting, so the bettors agree.

I have not handicapped the Sylverster-Karmazin fight yet. Will do it later in the week, and will post here.

**Handjuice** · 06-02-10, 07:29 PM

I think the Cotto ML is the safest bet this weekend, Foreman has never faced this level of opposition before and I don't think he has enough skill or talent to outbox Cotto.

**HauntingTheHoly** · 06-03-10, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

what's your reasoning for backing Yuri, always like hearing other people's opinions on fights

The most important factor is the style advantage. Cotto doesn't move as well as he used to and Yuri is a big time mover. Yuri has long reach and stamina and will dance around Cotto all night safely stepping in occasionally to blister Cotto on the end of his long punches. Manny Steward knows this which is why he's concentrating on getting Cotto to MOVE better in their training camp, and in interviews you can see Steward is pretty apprehensive about his new fighter losing. Sometimes this would be hype for when his fighter wins, but this time I see it as very genuine concern that they're gonna have a tough fight. I think it'll be even tougher than Manny thinks. Cotto has been the bully in his victories at 140 and 147, when he wasn't the bully, he got over come and steam rolled by Margarito and then was too slow and had too little stamina to keep up with Pac. Yuri has characteristics of both fighters that have beaten Cotto. Yuri has the stamina, speed, legs, and accuracy to win the decision. Who gives a shit if "he hasn't been tested"??? Cotto HAS been tested and we know what kinds of fighters give him problems and beat him. Yuri is that kind of fighter and the fact that the fight is at 154 where Cotto won't be as much the bully.....it just feels like trouble for Cotto. I DO think Cotto will be in the fight b/c he's quite simply a very good fighter. I think the fight will be tough and close, but clear unanimous decision for Yuri.

**HauntingTheHoly** · 06-03-10, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by Handjuice

I think the Cotto ML is the safest bet this weekend, Foreman has never faced this level of opposition before and I don't think he has enough skill or talent to outbox Cotto.

Cotto could certainly win, but if you watch boxing and know anything about it, you can't like Cotto at ****ing -220 odds. Horrible bet.

**illmatick** · 06-03-10, 07:49 AM

nice write-up Holy, Yuri Is at +275 to win by decision right now

**urge2kill** · 06-03-10, 11:15 AM

SIA has Yuri +200.

**illmatick** · 06-04-10, 01:10 PM

Y.Foreman points handicap +5½ -140* vs M.Cotto points handicap x1

Oscar Meza +160x.5

Stuart Hall +200 x.25..... the fix is in

Rocky Fuentes +100 x.5

**Vaughany** · 06-04-10, 01:18 PM

I like Lawler at 8/13...pretty sure he'll knock Babalu out.

**illmatick** · 06-04-10, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

Stuart Hall +200 x.25..... the fix is in

winner +.5 units, Hall wins by tko....Napa quits on the stool

Napa fights always end with some shady result

**Vaughany** · 06-04-10, 04:57 PM

Damn was gonna tail on Hall but bottled it!

**illmatick** · 06-04-10, 05:15 PM

I wasn't lying about the fix being in Vaughney, only wish I had put more on the play

that was some the shadiest shit I've ever seen in boxing, Napa was showing no signs of fatigue before he quit

**Vaughany** · 06-04-10, 05:36 PM

I see Napa is blaming it on the weight cut...saying he felt dizzy!

**Cookie Monster** · 06-04-10, 06:11 PM

I see Sylverster as the favorite, but Karmazin is very good value at +280. Obviously, the question is how much Karmazin has left at 37 years. The Miranda fight show both sides of the coin. Certainly, he survived a rough 9th round and finished Miranda in the 10th. But in the other side, the fact that he was in a life and death struggle vs. an inferior fighter worries me.

So, I see a Sylvester decision or late round KO as the most possible results. But at +280 Karmazin is great value. By the way, the Over 9.5 -120 is tempting too.

**illmatick** · 06-04-10, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by Cookie Monster

I see Sylverster as the favorite, but Karmazin is very good value at +280. Obviously, the question is how much Karmazin has left at 37 years. The Miranda fight show both sides of the coin. Certainly, he survived a rough 9th round and finished Miranda in the 10th. But in the other side, the fact that he was in a life and death struggle vs. an inferior fighter worries me.

So, I see a Sylvester decision or late round KO as the most possible results. But at +280 Karmazin is great value. By the way, the Over 9.5 -120 is tempting too.

, I like the over 9.5 as well

I doubt it happens but hopefully 5 dimes puts out some props on this one

**southmadejd** · 06-05-10, 12:47 AM

damn ilmatik....my book has Cotto by decision at +100, in your opinion does it really mean anything when the line drops this much on a prop bet?

**domz248** · 06-05-10, 08:18 AM

rocky fuentes win by KO

**illmatick** · 06-05-10, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by southmadejd

damn ilmatik....my book has Cotto by decision at +100, in your opinion does it really mean anything when the line drops this much on a prop bet?

really?? which book is that? 5 dimes has him at +240 by decision

Originally posted by domz248

rocky fuentes win by KO

thanks for the points dom, glad we could cash it

which site did you use to confirm the results?

here's an interview I found on Karmazin

Q : How was your training for this fight ?

Roman : I am more prepaired for this fight than I was for my previous one . My opponent is a workhorse but nothing really special about him , I have to come out and win the fight .

Q : Do you think you have to win by KO in Germany ?

Roman : Well , you know . They wont give us the victory any other way .

Q : You could be the first russian to be a world champion in 2 different weightclasses in professional boxing . Is this an extra motivation for you ?

Roman : Yes , I am trying to reach this . Big motivation for me .

Q : You've already fought twice in Germany , whats your opinion about Germany ?

Roman : I want to say once again , nobody believes in winning in Germany , when you go to Germany you go to there to lose . I came here to win , I was here twice and won European Championships against 2 strong opponents .

**domz248** · 06-05-10, 10:14 AM

on this site PhilBoxing.com

**Vaughany** · 06-05-10, 12:05 PM

0.25 units on Sylvester by decision and 0.25 units on Karmazin by TKO or KO,

**wake14** · 06-05-10, 12:25 PM

i like cotto at minus 180 too easy...

**Vaughany** · 06-05-10, 05:24 PM

Anybody watchin Sylvester Karmozin? Ive got a terrible feeling Karmozin is gonna take a decision win!

**southmadejd** · 06-05-10, 05:38 PM

it was a local ilmatik....I have a 5dimes account though, I think I will take the action with them.

**Vaughany** · 06-05-10, 05:39 PM

Im watchin it in German but pretty sure Sylvester just won a split decision by one point! + 0.5 units for me! Would of been better if Karmazin had knocked him out but cant complain!

**illmatick** · 06-05-10, 05:44 PM

fight was scored a draw, we get a refund on our bet

this is why people consider the sport a joke

**Vaughany** · 06-05-10, 05:51 PM

yee I see now...yee a big joke!

**Cookie Monster** · 06-05-10, 06:32 PM

I saw just the last rounds, and Karmazin was dominating. In the last round Sylvester went all in for the KO, so I guess he knew he was behind. So the draw was bad? One judge giving 118-111 for Sylvester? WTF?

**illmatick** · 06-05-10, 07:19 PM

118-111 made me cringe, there was almost a fight at the judges table

boxing just keeps getting shadier and shadier, sport seems to have no shame these days, all 3 of the major fight today ended with some shady result, 2 split decisions went to the fighters that clearly lost, linesmaker Oddessa said he's no longer putting out friday night british lines because of how corrupt it has gotten

I have a straddle for tonight

Martirosyan wins by 10 round decision -105 x1
Joe Greene +290 x.5

my thinking tonight is Yuri wins but loses a split decision, I think we're better off trying to handicap which fights will be fixed as opposed to which fighter should win.. It worked perfectly for me yesterday in the Hall vs Napa fight