I just wanted to get a thread started that discusses what everybody looks at and the angles everybody takes into capping a college football game. For example, some might bet on feel, other past trends, and others specific stats. I just wanted everybody's two cents as to what approach they take to the fall Saturday's. Let's hear em!
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I look at their schedule first. I see who they've played and look at the box scores. I also see who they have on tap the next week just for starters.Comment -
Wow, big broad question, lots to consider.
1. How do teams, programs and conferences compare?
2. What happened last season when they played. I am not a believer in "revenge" as a motive, that is garbage. As an athlete, when you realize you can compete with someone you get after them because you did it before. Cal plays USC tight but loses, Stanford plays Cal tight but normally loses. Oregon State knew it could play with USC beating them 2 years ago...
Coach matchups too: .ie. Tedford has owned Oregon and Pete Carroll has owned Tedford.
3. Trends (biggest): Wow, Cal's offense is sputtering but defense playing like monsters. I smell a lot of unders in CAl games. LSU not so hot with bad quarterback play; I just think 'Bama is a better team, etc. Or, MIssouri sure scores a lot of points but have they been tested? I spotted MIssouri and LSU early this year as frauds. IN the last few games, Fresno State started giving up lots of points.
4. Weather, look for big ugly storms.....Let's help each other out here on this one folks.Comment -
Watch alot of games...Get a sense for how teams play and what are their strengths and weaknesses...If you have a conference that you have mroe knowledge about...watch all the games that you can in that league...Comment -
all good thoughts here...make sure to factor in cross country travel, coaching match-ups, and factor in the BCS (running up the score by certain teams)...Comment -
I personally think that trends in past history are useless... every year the team is different which completely discredits what happened the previous year or the year before that. Now revenge situations, etc. do play a role in my capping... I've been working on developing a system the entire year and I can't seem to pinpoint the key factors I need to base my picks on... was just looking for some help...Comment -
If past seasons don't matter, then how can you account for CAl and Tedford beating Oregon 5 out of the last 7 years when Oregon "on paper" has been better? I don't look at past history as ALL important but last season's game is worth taking into account. So I don't put any factor that much above another but I do like to see how a team has played in its last three games and its "body of work" for the season. You should take a rivalry history into account. For example, I know Cal will be a 7 to 10-point over Stanford at home this year but I know it will likely be a 3-point margin for either side.Comment -
Magic 8 ball.
ask agian later.Comment -
I used to be under the same impression that games in the past didn't matter one bit to games in the future, but I think there is something there. USC vs. Oregon State ring any bells? That being said, it is only a small part of my capping. Mostly I just look at the stats and make adjustments based off of the strength of competition and keep a close watch on line movements. As pags said, travel and knowing what coaches like to score alot of points and which ones are just happy with a win is important. If all else fails, fade DacKhaiViet and Brandon Lang.Comment -
One last thing: I listen and read a lot of sources. I love reading opinions in this forum--I weigh the info and act or not act on what makes sense with my view.
Out here on the west coast we have KNBR radio at am 680. They have a guy on Friday afternoons, Adam Meyer, at www.adamwins.com and he is very good. I am not a shill for him and don't pay for his picks.
Meyer had great insight on both the LSU game and the 49er game last night. He pretty much picked both right on the nose. Does he get them wrong, sure he does. But he and other touts on the radio are another resource. What I like about Meyer is that he is not one of those yelling screaming New Yorkers (not that there is anything wrong with that.) He breaks stuf down like a forensic accountant.Comment -
i read asmuch as i can about both teams the loof at othr cppers pick and try to mach up withe some of their picks it takes alot of time most of the time it pays offComment -
Try to stay away from nationally televised games media and radio tend to favor or push for dogs,Monitor the lines early in the week or at least two days before an event,Research,this forum is really helpful,it pretty much cut's my research time in half.Set a goal for the week or month,don't chase bet's,gather as much info as possible and make your own opinion,nothing is wrong with over/unders=} good luck all.Comment -
I pick 4-5 games for each CFB and NFL, with the former getting more action. People tend to play too many picks. I actually broke my own rule and laid chaser bets because I was "up" on my parlay. I pissed away most of my profit. Don't do that.Comment -
To win consistently, you don't need to do anything except FADE PAT VENDITTO'S PLAYS. It's a guaranteed money-maker.Comment
