Coll FB - some plays

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-30-23, 11:14 PM

2nd play = 187 colo +21.5 (1.91). 100 to win 91.

...I'm counting this play from this thread:

3 of first 4 picks are Quarterbacks, and all are BLACK - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3725277-3-first-4-picks-quarterbacks-all-black-p3.html

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...I know the Buff roster is in transition. Honestly, I expected the Buffs to come together quicker. Coach Prime might be a reach, not sure I see the Buffs winning too many games.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-30-23, 11:16 PM

One other observation, as I look at the current #s. Man, you have to get down on these #s early, these #s get hammered out.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-31-23, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

One other observation, as I look at the current #s. Man, you have to get down on these #s early, these #s get hammered out.

Pursuant to this point, I think Toledo/Illinois is one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend. I know it's MAC vs Big 10.

Toledo returns a ton of All-Conf players, I believe 7. The QB Finn missed games last year, if he's healthy he's a threat. I believe Toledo can threaten to be the top Mid-major team in the country this year.

As for ILL, they're off a very good year. Their Pass DEF was incredibly good last year, that's the catch. They put a top CB into the NFL, I think their defense can't help but regress this year.

Anyone holding Toledo +10.5 should feel good. Current line is +9.5.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-31-23, 12:54 PM

Play #3 = 147 Fla/Utah: Over 44 (1.91). 100 to win 91.
...Counter-intuitive logic. And I'm tailing Veri's computer play.

There might be three names the average Coll FB knows. Rising the Utah QB. And two departed players who were 1st rd-picks, TE Kincaid from Utah and Fla QB Richardson.

In particular, note the Rising injury status. # has plummeted. People don't like the unknown, but there should be plenty of speed on the field for dynamic plays.

**veriableodds** · 08-31-23, 03:11 PM

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-31-23, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Play #3 = 147 Fla/Utah: Over 44 (1.91). 100 to win 91.
...Counter-intuitive logic. And I'm tailing Veri's computer play.

There might be three names the average Coll FB knows. Rising the Utah QB. And two departed players who were 1st rd-picks, TE Kincaid from Utah and Fla QB Richardson.

In particular, note the Rising injury status. # has plummeted. People don't like the unknown, but there should be plenty of speed on the field for dynamic plays.

Loser on this one:
*Two Missed FGs.
*Utah did fine w/o Rising.
*Fla QB Mertz played well. But where TF was the Gator ground game? Man, where is Fred Taylor when you need him?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-01-23, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

I don't have high expectations for this. On nine plays, I'm hoping for 5 wins to clear a Profit.

Play #1 = 155 Stanford -3.5 (1.99). 100 to win 99.
...Rationale for these plays will simply be anti-logic. Stanford is really downtrodden right now. Hawaii was putrid last year. I know their offense looked improved last week. If Hawaii is getting backing versus a Pac-12 foe, I'll take a look at The Tree at a short price.

Will try to post brief logic on each listed play.

Play #4 = 155 Stan - Adding a unit -2.5 (1.91). 100 to win 91.

...Everyone hates The Tree this year. Bows had a chance to show themselves.

SAN FRAN to Honolulu is actually the shortest trip from Islands to Mainland, < 5 hour flight. Tree had the week off, they should be ready to go.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-01-23, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2nd play = 187 colo +21.5 (1.91). 100 to win 91.

...I'm counting this play from this thread:

3 of first 4 picks are Quarterbacks, and all are BLACK - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3725277-3-first-4-picks-quarterbacks-all-black-p3.html

The SBR Lobby: Sports Talk, Gambling and Bettors Chat

...I know the Buff roster is in transition. Honestly, I expected the Buffs to come together quicker. Coach Prime might be a reach, not sure I see the Buffs winning too many games.

Read up on this game some more. I'm sold on the anti-TCU angle:
1) Frogs are off a Home Run year.
2) I can say for sure that TCU will be down at QB/RB/WR/OffLine.

The trickier part is Colorado. I can say:
1) Their QB play will be better than last year.
2) Their team speed will be better than last year.
3) I'm not sure how quickly the team will gel. They don't have many Returning Starters...but that's a GOOD THING. Many slow defenders will be replaced by Transfers from big-name schools.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-01-23, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

One other observation, as I look at the current #s. Man, you have to get down on these #s early, these #s get hammered out.

I will resist any Monday Morning QB-ing. That's bad practice.

Will just echo what I said above. Try to do your prognisticating with all possible info. Bet accordingly, and live with the results.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Play #4 = 155 Stan - Adding a unit -2.5 (1.91). 100 to win 91.

...Everyone hates The Tree this year. Bows had a chance to show themselves.

SAN FRAN to Honolulu is actually the shortest trip from Islands to Mainland, < 5 hour flight. Tree had the week off, they should be ready to go.

Stanford polishing it off. Nice to get on the board w/ a couple wins.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 09:57 AM

Play #5 = 166 INDIANA +30.5 (1.92). 100 to win 92.

Don't like Ohio St here:
1) Lost 3 Off Linemen to the draft. Will be weaker on the Off Line.
2) Stroud to the NFL. New QB unproven.
3) Consider the L2 games OhioSt played.
...Mich/UGA connected on a lot of big plays vs this defense.
...Totally gutted after the loss to UGA. I don't think the Bucks will be excited to play a foe they crushed last year.

And I think Indiana will move the ball better than most think. Hoosiers to hang the #.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-02-23, 10:03 AM

Chucky - good luck this season. I’ve been out of the country for the summer and have not caught up to CFB. I’ll be tailing you.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

Chucky - good luck this season. I’ve been out of the country for the summer and have not caught up to CFB. I’ll be tailing you.

Buffs, early TD! 7-0.

Mac, thank you. I have to put this asterisk on my picks.

*These are recreational picks. My preparation isn't what it was in the past. My selections are based on reading/research, but these aren't Professional picks.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Buffs, early TD! 7-0.

Mac, thank you. I have to put this asterisk on my picks.

*These are recreational picks. My preparation isn't what it was in the past. My selections are based on reading/research, but these aren't Professional picks.

So far so good! I said the talent gap was much thinner. COLO moving the ball.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 11:36 AM

Damn, blocked FG. That would have been big.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-02-23, 12:06 PM

Prime can coach. I’m so pissed my Gators didn’t hire him.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-02-23, 01:11 PM

Great play call. TD Buffs.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-02-23, 01:18 PM

TCU claps back in 3 plays. Dammit.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-02-23, 01:38 PM

Travis Hunter is a fukking baller. Catching balls on both sides.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-02-23, 01:50 PM

Horseshit roughing the passer call against Colorado.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-02-23, 02:31 PM

Last team with the ball wins…

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

Last team with the ball wins…

Very happy w/ this one. Buffs win.

Colorado talent improved. But wow, TCU is very leaky.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-02-23, 02:56 PM

I cashed 1st half and game MLs. Great call CtheGoat.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

I cashed 1st half and game MLs. Great call CtheGoat.

Wow, I think you did better than me. Props, and thx for the Shout-Out.

I thought my intel on that game was pretty good. I read thru the Phil Steele player profiles. COLO = addition by subtraction.

So far so good on the Hoosiers. Would love to get to half at 7-3.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 03:53 PM

I respect Dave Cokin's picks. Interesting that he's on three Big Favs this Week:

Just tells that the House balances these #s. The Big Fav prices aren't bloated like they were in the past...and the talent gap is sometimes even bigger.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Play #5 = 166 INDIANA +30.5 (1.92). 100 to win 92.

Don't like Ohio St here:
1) Lost 3 Off Linemen to the draft. Will be weaker on the Off Line.
2) Stroud to the NFL. New QB unproven.
3) Consider the L2 games OhioSt played.
...Mich/UGA connected on a lot of big plays vs this defense.
...Totally gutted after the loss to UGA. I don't think the Bucks will be excited to play a foe they crushed last year.

And I think Indiana will move the ball better than most think. Hoosiers to hang the #.

Hoosiers driving. They're right in this game (so far).

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 06:36 PM

Mac, thx for the kind words. Always appreciated your NBA insights.

Off to a 4-1 ATS start. Felt like I had some insights on these games, and they got home.

Will continue to post anything that I consider to be value. But plays will be very selective.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 07:17 PM

Some random in-game notes:
*Georgia struggling. But they can't be too excited by this level of opponent. Anyone holding +52 in good shape.
*Texas St threatening for the upset. Hope they get it.
*Texas A&M might be really good. Did they fix the QB?
*Mentioned that I thought Toledo was live. Can they score here?
*WVa ties it up. Old-school rivalry, would love to see them compete here.

*I was intrigued by SoAlab (at Tulane). But I thought the # wasn't fat enuf.

**veriableodds** · 09-02-23, 07:25 PM

Nice work in here, again gl for the season CHUCK

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Nice work in here, again gl for the season CHUCK

Thx, veri. Appreciate it.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Some random in-game notes:
*Georgia struggling. But they can't be too excited by this level of opponent. Anyone holding +52 in good shape.
*Texas St threatening for the upset. Hope they get it.
*Texas A&M might be really good. Did they fix the QB?
*Mentioned that I thought Toledo was live. Can they score here?
*WVa ties it up. Old-school rivalry, would love to see them compete here.

*I was intrigued by SoAlab (at Tulane). But I thought the # wasn't fat enuf.

Wow, huge TD by Toledo w/ 0:04 left in the half. And he's going for 2.

I'm torn on Toledo. They're talented but I see one issue: *Physicality vs a Big10 Front 7.
...All Toledo's yardage has been wide.
...I don't think they can run btw the tackles on this team.
...And red-zone yards will be tough.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-23, 10:17 PM

Toledo played well. ILL converts an amazing 4th down, kicks late FG to win by 2.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-03-23, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Toledo played well. ILL converts an amazing 4th down, kicks late FG to win by 2.

Easy to say now...but the Toledo HC may have out-smarted himself: *He went for two very late in the 1st half.
...Didn't have to. Still a half to go.
...I get it, he believes in his offense. But you have to have a 2-pt play you love to do that against the Illinois defense.
...On the comeback, he had to go for 2 again late. They missed both...and lost by 2.

Not really criticizing him. Just noting the strategy. It was a great game, would have been a HUGE win for Toledo.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-03-23, 10:02 AM

Play #6 = FLORIDA A&M +5 (1.92). 100 to win 92.
...I know the Juice/Limits on these FCS games suck.

...This play is purely based on perception.
...Think about it, Jackson St's two best players now play for Colorado. You saw them in action on SAT.
...Florida A&M has had a good program. Last year, they had a ton of Academic suspensions at the start of the year. They lost at North Carolina with a shell roster.
...With Fla A&M back to full strength...and Jackson St's best players now in Boulder, I'll look at Fla A&M.

Go, Rattlers.