Week 9 Final Take... with Adjusted Filters...

**usma1992** · 10-27-23, 09:11 PM

1:00 PM	WMICHIGAN	27	EMICHIGAN	15	42	1.5	45	2Close	2Close
1:00 PM	OKLAHOMA	45	KANSAS	18	63	10	66	Away -	2Close
1:00 PM	OREGON	37	UTAH	13	50	7	49	Away -	Over
1:00 PM	GEORGIA	38	FLORIDA	13	51	14.5	49	Away -	2Close
1:00 PM	OHIOST	28	WISCONSIN	16	44	15	43.5	2Close	2Close
2:00 PM	CLEMSON	36	NCSTATE	14	50	10	44	Away -	Over
3:00 PM	MEMPHIS	42	NORTHTEXAS	32	74	7.5	67.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	MICHIGANST	17	MINNESOTA	20	37	-7	40.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	VIRGINIA	13	MIAMI	45	58	-18.5	47.5	2Close	Over
3:30 PM	DUKE	18	LOUISVILLE	26	44	-4	47	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	SOUTHERNMISS	20	APPALACHIANS	50	70	-18.5	55.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	MIAMIOHIO	9	OHIOU	23	32	-7	40	2Close	Under
3:30 PM	PURDUE	23	NEBRASKA	20	43	-3	41.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	PITTSBURGH	5	NOTREDAME	30	35	-19.5	45	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	IOWAST	22	BAYLOR	24	46	2	47	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	BYU	13	TEXAS	42	55	-17	50.5	Home -	Over
3:30 PM	MISSISSIPPIS	16	AUBURN	23	39	-7	43.5	2Close	2Close
3:30 PM	ECAROLINA	14	UTSA	36	50	-17.5	47	2Close	2Close
4:00 PM	USC	41	CALIFORNIA	31	72	11	67	2Close	2Close
4:00 PM	TULANE	27	RICE	20	47	11.5	54	2Close	Under

**usma1992** · 10-27-23, 09:12 PM

5:00 PM	ARKANSASST	27	LAMONROE	26	53	-2	57	2Close	2Close
5:00 PM	LALAFAYETTE	21	SALABAMA	36	57	-10	52.5	2Close	2Close
5:30 PM	WYOMING	24	BOISEST	31	55	-5	49	2Close	2Close
6:00 PM	MARSHALL	34	COASTALCAROL	29	63	4	48	2Close	2Close
7:00 PM	TENNESSEE	34	KENTUCKY	13	47	3.5	51.5	Away -	2Close
7:00 PM	AIRFORCE	36	COLORADOST	18	54	12	49	Away -	2Close
7:00 PM	WASHINGTON	49	STANFORD	12	61	26.5	59.5	Away -	2Close
7:00 PM	TROY	31	TEXASST	26	57	6	52.5	2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	VANDERBILT	15	OLEMISS	52	67	-25	63.5	Home -	2Close
8:00 PM	NCAROLINA	47	GEORGIATECH	22	69	11.5	63.5	2Close	2Close
8:00 PM	OLDDOMINION	13	JAMESMADISON	36	49	-17.5	49	2Close	2Close
8:00 PM	WASHINGTONST	36	ARIZONAST	26	62	6.5	51.5	2Close	2Close
8:00 PM	CINCINNATI	32	OKLAHOMAST	34	66	-7.5	54	2Close	2Close
10:30 PM	UNLV	26	FRESNOST	40	66	-9.5	58.5	2Close	2Close
10:30 PM	OREGONST	29	ARIZONA	27	56	3.5	56.5	2Close	2Close
10:30 PM	NEWMEXICO	31	NEVADA	24	55	-1.5	50.5	Away +	2Close
12:00 AM	SANJOSEST	34	HAWAII	26	60	8.5	61	2Close	2Close

**usma1992** · 10-27-23, 09:17 PM

If you follow my picks or numbers at all... it added...

Liberty
Jacksonville St.
Tennessee
Air Force
Washington
Georgia

It got rid of
Western Michigan
USC

Technically, I'm looking at 4-0 going into the weekend. Since, I am from Virginia... I am only 3-0 because I couldn't bet on Liberty. Anyway, good luck.

A source I trust said Purdue looks to be a lock. My system says no bet but it does have Purdue winning by 3 and they are getting points.

Enjoy
Dave

**A Quant** · 10-28-23, 09:44 AM

Did you just post winners AFTER the games were played?
And you're counting them?

**A Quant** · 10-29-23, 07:23 AM

Congrats Dave.

You went 14-13.

Coming in at 51.8%, which, as you know--- not the 52.4% you need to have a winning week.

Maybe you can get a new reiteration and finally get above 52.4%.

Just once.

**usma1992** · 10-29-23, 10:05 AM

Actually I only hit 48%... I don't count the Miami game as a victory. OT doesn't count. I lost that game. But you don't understand modeling so you will say I won that game. Happy with Away - games but new filters eliminated some winners from this past weekend.

Trying to get ready for next season.
So my over/unders were way off. I will continue to fine tune. Feeling good about my progress. Spent 5 hours this morning on the Away - bets.

MAN IN THE ARENA

and it is 52.38% not 52.4%

**A Quant** · 10-29-23, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Actually I only hit 48%... I don't count the Miami game as a victory. OT doesn't count. I lost that game. But you don't understand modeling so you will say I won that game. Happy with Away - games but new filters eliminated some winners from this past weekend.

Trying to get ready for next season.
So my over/unders were way off. I will continue to fine tune. Feeling good about my progress. Spent 5 hours this morning on the Away - bets.

MAN IN THE ARENA

and it is 52.38% not 52.4%

Whether its 52.38, or 52.4, you'll never hit either mark.

You want a read?

Einstein, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again (27 selections each week), and expecting different results"

**usma1992** · 10-29-23, 01:41 PM

And you have produced what? LOL

MAN IN THE ARENA

**A Quant** · 10-29-23, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

And you have produced what? LOL

MAN IN THE ARENA

Again, meat.

I have a thread here. Its easy to find.

I have had 3 consecutive winning weeks....

You have not had a single winning week. Not one. Not even by accident.

In fact, of all the posters here who have a thread with picks in it, you are the ONLY one yet to have a single winning week.

Do you understand how awful that is?

**usma1992** · 10-29-23, 02:19 PM

Yep,

A broken clock is right twice a day... congratulations. And your thread has to be amazing... and upbeat lol.

I am building a model similar to that predicts games without bias that works for every game.

Watch Imitation Game... great movie...

Meat... that is also funny... I wish... I have run marathons and won powerlifting competitions... but that was a few years ago.

I'll stay my course... LOL

All good.

**A Quant** · 11-02-23, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Yep,

A broken clock is right twice a day... congratulations. And your thread has to be amazing... and upbeat lol.

I am building a model similar to that predicts games without bias that works for every game.

Watch Imitation Game... great movie...

Meat... that is also funny... I wish... I have run marathons and won powerlifting competitions... but that was a few years ago.

I'll stay my course... LOL

All good.

Holy Fukk man.

Are you bragging about powerlifting now?

**usma1992** · 11-03-23, 08:50 PM

A Quant... I am 0-3 in college football so far starting this weekend ... which I am sure you will be happy with but I'm 1-0 in NFL... actually haven't had a losing week in NFL this year... some breakeven... and I don't understand why because it is harder to bet... but I think I am winning only because unders are coming in rampant. I don't value my NFL results highly, yet.

The powerlifting thing was only presented to you because people told me I couldn't accomplish it. Marathons too.

Believe it or not I bought an RV while stationed in Alaska and I wanted to see if I could live in it and survive the winter. The coldest it got was -50. Everyone told me it couldn't be done. And they said I would lose so much money when I sold it. I paid 52K... I sold for 48.5 after using it for two years.

All ... I am saying.. is that I can do this too... I am close ... NFL is hitting well... I just need to figure out college football before I fine tune NBA and NCAAB. I think the money is in college basketball... especially with a program like mine.

My process is to create a reasonable presumably outcome of the game based on mathematics and the Vegas spread... compare it to Vegas... and see where the model is weak and where is was strong. Then look at where the model and the actual outcome matched up and find the characteristics of the games lend to that. Create filters... and only bet those games...

I will continue my process... the Man in the Arena.

Dave

**A Quant** · 11-04-23, 06:58 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

A Quant... I am 0-3 in college football so far starting this weekend ... which I am sure you will be happy with but I'm 1-0 in NFL... actually haven't had a losing week in NFL this year... some breakeven... and I don't understand why because it is harder to bet... but I think I am winning only because unders are coming in rampant. I don't value my NFL results highly, yet.

The powerlifting thing was only presented to you because people told me I couldn't accomplish it. Marathons too.

Believe it or not I bought an RV while stationed in Alaska and I wanted to see if I could live in it and survive the winter. The coldest it got was -50. Everyone told me it couldn't be done. And they said I would lose so much money when I sold it. I paid 52K... I sold for 48.5 after using it for two years.

All ... I am saying.. is that I can do this too... I am close ... NFL is hitting well... I just need to figure out college football before I fine tune NBA and NCAAB. I think the money is in college basketball... especially with a program like mine.

My process is to create a reasonable presumably outcome of the game based on mathematics and the Vegas spread... compare it to Vegas... and see where the model is weak and where is was strong. Then look at where the model and the actual outcome matched up and find the characteristics of the games lend to that. Create filters... and only bet those games...

I will continue my process... the Man in the Arena.

Dave

Dave-- I am still on your side even though you're an odd duck.

I WANT you to win, I WANT everyone to win.

But there are guys much much smarter than you and I who have attempted to create models to beat Vegas in football, and a very small few have been able to do it.

Your model is actually giving you a really strong hint--- the money is in finding 5-6 sides and using the angle you find in those.

I hope you do not stop posting your picks---

Good luck this weekend!

**usma1992** · 11-04-23, 05:55 PM

Lol... everytime I post I hear bs about half a point

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	NEWMEXICOST	20	LOUISIANATEC	25	45	-3	52	2Close	Under
7:30 PM	LIBERTY	35	WKENTUCKY	23	58	4	60	Away -	2Close
7:00 PM	JACKSONVILLE	35	FLAINTERNATI	11	46	7.5	44.5	Away -	2Close
8:00 PM	UTEP	20	SAMHOUSTONST	20	40	-3.5	36	2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	SYRACUSE	23	VIRGINIATECH	24	47	-3	47	2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	GEORGIAST	26	GASOUTHERN	40	66	-2.5	62	2Close	2Close
7:30 PM	FLAATLANTIC	27	CHARLOTTE	14	41	5	41	Away -	2Close
12:00 PM	MASSACHUSETT	20	ARMY	38	58	-10	48	2Close	2Close
12:00 PM	CONNECTICUT	17	BOSTONCOLLEG	39	56	-13	52.5	2Close	2Close
12:00 PM	FLORIDAST	39	WAKEFOREST	13	52	20.5	53	Away -	2Close
12:00 PM	WVIRGINIA	25	UCF	37	62	-7	59.5	2Close	2Close
12:00 PM	INDIANA	0	PENNST	52	52	-32.5	44	Home -	Over
12:00 PM	MARYLAND	32	NORTHWESTERN	9	41	13	48.5	2Close	Under
12:00 PM	COLORADO	24	UCLA	50	74	-16.5	64	2Close	Over
12:00 PM	HOUSTON	24	KANSASST	49	73	-17	60	2Close	Over
12:00 PM	SCAROLINA	16	TEXASA&M	38	54	-14	53.5	2Close	2Close
12:00 PM	TULSA	12	SMU	48	60	-19.5	57	2Close	Over