Here we GO... Almost Time... Been a Long Wait if your a football fan...

[usma1992]

If you haven't followed me before... I have been working on a model for 16 years... and it is finally starting to show profitability. My college basketball is my best model... and I had a pretty decent following last season on SBR... check the thread. We hit 60%+. I am building a website and YouTube Channel which I hope to be ready soon. My College Football and NFL picks are free this year... however, I analyze every game so if you want the extra information you have to pay a nominal fee. 50% of any profit I make off the website will go to Wounded Warriors and St. Judes. My fee is essentially nothing ($5.99/Week) ... but the data may help you win your survivor league. I am a school teacher with a degree in Electrical Engineering/Computer Science.

I DON'T start betting until Week 4 and only bet 3% of my bankroll on any game. I will publish my picks weekly. This first week I will publish every game. I think week 2 or week 3 are the most dangerous weeks in college football.

WITH CURRENT ALGORITHMS THE SYSTEM IS HITTING 69.86%.. so I got a lot of runway and still be profitable.

MACK THE TEACH

Time	NCAAF	2024Week1				O/U& SPREADS				BETS
AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Florida State	34	Georgia Tech	20		54	12.5	55.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	SMU	50	Nevada	4		54	24.5	57		Away Minus	Too Close
8:00 PM	North Carolina	36	Minnesota	19		55	-2.5	50.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	Coastal Carolina	23	Jacksonville State	34		57	-4	57		Home Minus	Too Close
7:00 PM	Temple	13	Oklahoma	63		76	-42	60		Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	TCU	49	Stanford	24		73	8.5	61		Away Minus	Too Close
12:00 PM	Kent State	6	Pittsburgh	26		32	-23	53.5		Too Close	Under
12:00 PM	Connecticut	10	Maryland	36		46	-21.5	47.5		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	Clemson	22	Georgia	33		55	-13.5	48		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	Penn State	36	West Virginia	16		52	10.5	51.5		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	Virginia Tech	38	Vanderbilt	10		48	14	54		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Florida Internatio	14	Indiana	33		47	-20	50.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

MACK THE TEACH

3:30 PM	Eastern Michigan	20	Massachusetts	21		41	1	49.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Ohio	18	Syracuse	16		34	-15.5	47		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Akron	0	Ohio State	39		39	-50.5	58.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Miami (Florida)	31	Florida	23		54	2.5	56		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Colorado State	13	Texas	52		65	-36	59		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	UTEP	6	Nebraska	25		31	-27.5	49		Too Close	Under
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	10	Northwestern	14		24	-3.5	42		Too Close	Under
4:00 PM	Boise State	35	Georgia Southern	30		65	10.5	57.5		Too Close	Too Close
4:15 PM	Old Dominion	15	South Carolina	31		46	-21	56		Too Close	Under
5:00 PM	North Texas	32	South Alabama	41		73	-7	65		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	20	Michigan State	20		40	-11	48		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	UNLV	31	Houston	26		57	-3	56.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Nevada	7	Troy	39		46	-15.5	47		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Sam Houston State	18	Rice	27		45	-11.5	49.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Western Kentucky	15	Alabama	37		52	-30.5	59.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

MACK THE TEACH

7:30 PM	UCLA	38	Hawai'i	14		52	12.5	55.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	Fresno State	11	Michigan	28		39	-20.5	48.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	Notre Dame	23	Texas A&M	19		42	1	49		Too Close	Too Close
7:45 PM	Southern Mississip	16	Kentucky	30		46	-26	50.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	Georgia State	23	Georgia Tech	40		63	-20.5	57.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	James Madison	32	Charlotte	12		44	9	51.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	Western Michigan	16	Wisconsin	39		55	-25	56		Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	New Mexico	14	Arizona	45		59	-30.5	54.5		Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	Wyoming	17	Arizona State	22		39	-6.5	46.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	LSU	43	USC	31		74	6.5	62.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	Boston College	15	Florida State	34		49	-21.5	51.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

It looks like I won't be able to give away just the picks for free... The webserver won't let me differentiate between all the data and the picks. Once it is up... I am only charging $5.99 per week... your call. It is the cost of a good craft beer. If you can't afford it, send me a message and I will try to make you a premier member for a few weeks at no cost.

Here are just the consolidated picks... AGAIN THIS IS BASED ON LAST YEARS STATS. I don't start betting until Week 4. Week 2 and Week 3 are the most dangerous.

MACK THE TEACH

Time	NCAAF	2024Week1				O/U& SPREADS				BETS
AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:00 PM	SMU	50	Nevada	4		54	24.5	57		Away Minus	Too Close
8:00 PM	Coastal Carolina	23	Jacksonville State	34		57	-4	57		Home Minus	Too Close
10:30 PM	TCU	49	Stanford	24		73	8.5	61		Away Minus	Too Close
12:00 PM	Kent State	6	Pittsburgh	26		32	-23	53.5		Too Close	Under
3:30 PM	UTEP	6	Nebraska	25		31	-27.5	49		Too Close	Under
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	10	Northwestern	14		24	-3.5	42		Too Close	Under
4:15 PM	Old Dominion	15	South Carolina	31		46	-21	56		Too Close	Under

[Optional]

Once it is up... I am only charging $5.99 per week... your call.

Please do not post it here, or solicit sales via SBR in any way.

We have a no tolerance policy for touts.

[usma1992]

OK... no problem... I am not sure... I am qualified to be labeled a tout, but I won't solicit again.

Dave

[Optional]

OK... no problem... I am not sure... I am qualified to be labeled a tout, but I won't solicit again.

Dave

If you sell picks, you're a tout.

Winning or losing does not come into it. Certainly not an issue for most touts when selling. The truth is never an issue.

You may be the 1 in 1,000 tout who wins long term, and may even be the one in 10,000 honest touts, but we don't take that risk here to let the other 999 bad ones try to scam our posters.

[usma1992]

I understand... completely. I am hoping to be the 1 in 10000... actually the 1 in 10M... who actually produces a computer model that wins. I guess we will see. I completely understand the need to protect people. All good.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Decided to loosen up my parameters....

Time	NCAAF	2024Week1				O/U& SPREADS				BETS
AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:00 PM	SMU	50	Nevada	4		54	24.5	57		Away Minus	Too Close
8:00 PM	Coastal Carolina	23	Jacksonville State	34		57	-4	57		Home Minus	Too Close
10:30 PM	TCU	49	Stanford	24		73	8.5	61		Away Minus	Too Close
12:00 PM	Kent State	6	Pittsburgh	26		32	-23	53.5		Too Close	Under
12:00 PM	Penn State	36	West Virginia	16		52	10.5	51.5		Away Minus	Too Close
3:30 PM	Kansas State	27	UTSA	39		66	-22	49.5		Too Close	Over
3:30 PM	Eastern Michigan	20	Massachusetts	21		41	1	49.5		Home Plus	Too Close
3:30 PM	UTEP	6	Nebraska	25		31	-27.5	49		Too Close	Under
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	10	Northwestern	14		24	-3.5	42		Too Close	Under
4:15 PM	Old Dominion	15	South Carolina	31		46	-21	56		Too Close	Under
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	20	Michigan State	20		40	-11	48		Too Close	Under
7:00 PM	Sam Houston State	18	Rice	27		45	-11.5	49.5		Too Close	Under
7:30 PM	UCLA	38	Hawai'i	14		52	12.5	55.5		Away Minus	Too Close

[usma1992]

Scratch Kansas State game... that is a mistake

[usma1992]

Time	NCAAF	2024Week1				O/U& SPREADS				BETS
AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:00 PM	SMU	50	Nevada	4		54	24.5	57		Away Minus	Too Close
8:00 PM	Coastal Carolina	23	Jacksonville State	34		57	-4	57		Home Minus	Too Close
10:30 PM	TCU	49	Stanford	24		73	8.5	61		Away Minus	Too Close
12:00 PM	Kent State	6	Pittsburgh	26		32	-23	53.5		Too Close	Under
12:00 PM	Penn State	36	West Virginia	16		52	10.5	51.5		Away Minus	Too Close
3:30 PM	Eastern Michigan	20	Massachusetts	21		41	1	49.5		Home Plus	Too Close
3:30 PM	UTEP	6	Nebraska	25		31	-27.5	49		Too Close	Under
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	10	Northwestern	14		24	-3.5	42		Too Close	Under
4:15 PM	Old Dominion	15	South Carolina	31		46	-21	56		Too Close	Under
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	20	Michigan State	20		40	-11	48		Too Close	Under
7:00 PM	Sam Houston State	18	Rice	27		45	-11.5	49.5		Too Close	Under
7:30 PM	UCLA	38	Hawai'i	14		52	12.5	55.5		Away Minus	Too Close

[usma1992]

Again, I don't bet until Week 4... and I loosened it up a little to give everyone more bets. 3* less money 5* more money... pretty simplistic. I would wait until Week 4. Week 2 and Week 3 are really tough.

Time	NCAAF	2024Week1				O/U& SPREADS				BETS
AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Florida State	34	Georgia Tech	20		54	12.5	55.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	SMU	50	Nevada	4		54	24.5	57		Away Minus 5*	Too Close
8:00 PM	North Carolina	36	Minnesota	19		55	-2.5	50.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	Coastal Carolina	23	Jacksonville State	34		57	-4	57		Home Minus 5*	Too Close
7:00 PM	Temple	13	Oklahoma	63		76	-42	60		Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	TCU	49	Stanford	24		73	8.5	61		Away Minus 5*	Too Close
12:00 PM	Kent State	6	Pittsburgh	26		32	-23	53.5		Too Close	Under 5*
12:00 PM	Connecticut	10	Maryland	36		46	-21.5	47.5		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	Clemson	22	Georgia	33		55	-13.5	48		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	Penn State	36	West Virginia	16		52	10.5	51.5		Away Minus 3*	Too Close
12:00 PM	Virginia Tech	38	Vanderbilt	10		48	14	54		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Florida Internatio	14	Indiana	33		47	-20	50.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Eastern Michigan	20	Massachusetts	21		41	1	49.5		Home Plus 3*	Too Close
3:30 PM	Ohio	18	Syracuse	16		34	-15.5	47		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Akron	0	Ohio State	39		39	-50.5	58.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Miami (Florida)	31	Florida	23		54	2.5	56		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Colorado State	13	Texas	52		65	-36	59		Too Close	Too Close

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

3:30 PM	UTEP	6	Nebraska	25		31	-27.5	49		Too Close	Under 5*
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	10	Northwestern	14		24	-3.5	42		Too Close	Under 5*
4:00 PM	Boise State	35	Georgia Southern	30		65	10.5	57.5		Too Close	Too Close
4:15 PM	Old Dominion	15	South Carolina	31		46	-21	56		Too Close	Under 5*
5:00 PM	North Texas	32	South Alabama	41		73	-7	65		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	20	Michigan State	20		40	-11	48		Too Close	Under 3*
7:00 PM	UNLV	31	Houston	26		57	-3	56.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Nevada	7	Troy	39		46	-15.5	47		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Sam Houston State	18	Rice	27		45	-11.5	49.5		Too Close	Under 3*
7:00 PM	Western Kentucky	15	Alabama	37		52	-30.5	59.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	UCLA	38	Hawai'i	14		52	12.5	55.5		Away Minus 3*	Too Close
7:30 PM	Fresno State	11	Michigan	28		39	-20.5	48.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	Notre Dame	23	Texas A&M	19		42	1	49		Too Close	Too Close
7:45 PM	Southern Mississip	16	Kentucky	30		46	-26	50.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	Georgia State	23	Georgia Tech	40		63	-20.5	57.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	James Madison	32	Charlotte	12		44	9	51.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	Western Michigan	16	Wisconsin	39		55	-25	56		Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	New Mexico	14	Arizona	45		59	-30.5	54.5		Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	Wyoming	17	Arizona State	22		39	-6.5	46.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	LSU	43	USC	31		74	6.5	62.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	Boston College	15	Florida State	34		49	-21.5	51.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

I think I double counted the high percentage games. Making small moderations. It will only take a minute and I doubt it affects anything week 1.

Dave

[usma1992]

Had to make minor correction... This is why I begin in July and not a week before things start. It only affected two games. It kicked out the UMass and Rice games. Again, these are based on last years stats. I wait until Week 4 before I pull the trigger. Yesterday's upgrades were very productive.

Time	NCAAF	2024Week1				O/U& SPREADS				BETS
AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	Florida State	34	Georgia Tech	20		54	12.5	55.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	SMU	50	Nevada	4		54	24.5	57		Away Minus 5*	Too Close
8:00 PM	North Carolina	36	Minnesota	19		55	-2.5	50.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	Coastal Carolina	23	Jacksonville State	34		57	-4	57		Home Minus 5*	Too Close
7:00 PM	Temple	13	Oklahoma	63		76	-42	60		Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	TCU	49	Stanford	24		73	8.5	61		Away Minus 5*	Too Close
12:00 PM	Kent State	6	Pittsburgh	26		32	-23	53.5		Too Close	Under 5*
12:00 PM	Connecticut	10	Maryland	36		46	-21.5	47.5		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	Clemson	22	Georgia	33		55	-13.5	48		Too Close	Too Close
12:00 PM	Penn State	36	West Virginia	16		52	10.5	51.5		Away Minus 3*	Too Close
12:00 PM	Virginia Tech	38	Vanderbilt	10		48	14	54		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Florida Internatio	14	Indiana	33		47	-20	50.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Eastern Michigan	20	Massachusetts	21		41	1	49.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Ohio	18	Syracuse	16		34	-15.5	47		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Akron	0	Ohio State	39		39	-50.5	58.5		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Miami (Florida)	31	Florida	23		54	2.5	56		Too Close	Too Close
3:30 PM	Colorado State	13	Texas	52		65	-36	59		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

3:30 PM	UTEP	6	Nebraska	25		31	-27.5	49		Too Close	Under 5*
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	10	Northwestern	14		24	-3.5	42		Too Close	Under 5*
4:00 PM	Boise State	35	Georgia Southern	30		65	10.5	57.5		Too Close	Too Close
4:15 PM	Old Dominion	15	South Carolina	31		46	-21	56		Too Close	Under 5*
5:00 PM	North Texas	32	South Alabama	41		73	-7	65		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	20	Michigan State	20		40	-11	48		Too Close	Under 3*
7:00 PM	UNLV	31	Houston	26		57	-3	56.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Nevada	7	Troy	39		46	-15.5	47		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Sam Houston State	18	Rice	27		45	-11.5	49.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:00 PM	Western Kentucky	15	Alabama	37		52	-30.5	59.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	UCLA	38	Hawai'i	14		52	12.5	55.5		Away Minus 3*	Too Close
7:30 PM	Fresno State	11	Michigan	28		39	-20.5	48.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	Notre Dame	23	Texas A&M	19		42	1	49		Too Close	Too Close
7:45 PM	Southern Mississip	16	Kentucky	30		46	-26	50.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	Georgia State	23	Georgia Tech	40		63	-20.5	57.5		Too Close	Too Close
8:00 PM	James Madison	32	Charlotte	12		44	9	51.5		Too Close	Too Close
9:00 PM	Western Michigan	16	Wisconsin	39		55	-25	56		Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	New Mexico	14	Arizona	45		59	-30.5	54.5		Too Close	Too Close
10:30 PM	Wyoming	17	Arizona State	22		39	-6.5	46.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	LSU	43	USC	31		74	6.5	62.5		Too Close	Too Close
7:30 PM	Boston College	15	Florida State	34		49	-21.5	51.5		Too Close	Too Close

[usma1992]

Does anyone else's model or analysis produce actual scores? I would love to compare my numbers with them, if they do.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[A Quant]

Let me clue everyone in here.

The guy wants to tout.

He hit 40% of his college football games last year.

Anyone thinking of giving this guy 5.99 for 40% hit rate-- do yourself a favor and set your money on fire, and get a lobotomy.

[usma1992]

So here has been my approach... since 09... try to automate... try to analyze... try to improve... test... remodel... test remodel. Automation was the key because I am a one man show. That only really happened come 2021. I can now run everything from a refurbished laptop. This allowed me to focus incredibly hard on the analytical approach, the mathematical approach, and the remodeling approach.

This past year... I have taken my NFL to another level... very close to profitabilty or there. But the lessons I learned about the modelling approach was the crucial piece. I simultaneously was doing college football... trying to get the modelling approach and filtering approach down. A Quant is correct in that I continued to tweak Week 4 and then learn and then Week 5 and then learn and then Week 6 ... and learn and then until Week 8... I no longer had to tweak. I developed algorithms that worked over the previous weeks and then began predicting solid future results. I am ready for a solid college football season.

I in turn applied the modeling lessons and filtering lesson to my college basketball program. Look at my thread in college basketball... everything documented. From Jan 1 to Mar 1... 33K views in 2 months because I crushed it. Some people critique because they can't do. I build upon lesson learned in an attempt to produce a winning product.

And if you think it is about money for me. I just want to see if I can beat Vegas at their own game.

Carpe Diem...

[usma1992]

Need to Remind Everyone as the Season Approaches... that my models are statistical models. Which means? You can't bet realistically until Week 4. You need a data set. In addition, expect a Constanza week(Upside Down) if not familiar with Seinfeld in Week 6 or 7 where stats normalize. My college basketball program waits until at least 5 games are played and launches near Thanksgiving. It did well and results are posted on other forum.

It is good to see the season here. Go Army!!!

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

After careful consideration, I will be skipping analysis of Week 2 of college football. First of all, I don't start betting until Week 4 anyway. Second, I don't think all FBS teams will play Week 1. Which means that when I download the data, I have a significant chance of corrupting the data since I won't have all the teams in the data set.

By Week 3, I believe that all the FBS teams will have played at least one game. For the NFL, I will post week 2 because all NFL teams play the first week.

Enjoy
Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Again, I don't bet until Week 4... but it is good to see the SMU line move in line with my pick. You could have locked it in at -24.5.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

Watched FSU and SMU game... And this is why I don't use my statistical model for Week 1. Week 4 will be here shortly... Then I get to see how it really performs.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[Waterstpub87]

Not looking into your process. But it concerns me that you wouldn't starting betting till week 4. I get it's more data, but four games isn't necessarily a huge sample size either.

With you other post about hitting 70%, I am concerned you would be overfitting. Which might explain the back test being so different from live.

[usma1992]

It would actually only be three games and for some teams 2. Not all college football teams play week one. I continue to fine tune each year and this past year, I feel like I have had a major breakthrough in multiple programs. My process is what has changed. The math really hasn't changed that much.

I generate my own point totals regardless of what Vegas generates and I look to see where my model has excelled and fallen short.

My basketball program as I have stated worked and worked well from Jan 1 through Mar 1 with backtested algorithms. The real challenge for me in basketball is where I try to fine tune the model further or just let it run.

Regarding college football, my approach really began to fine tune this past year. Do I expect 70%? Absolutely not. I don't even expect 60%, but if I could hit the mid 50% range and last the season, I would be happy. I would then fine tune it further for the next year.

This is a process... It doesn't happen over night. However, I now feel that I am profitable or profitability is within very close proximity. NFL I will always be skeptical of even when it shows solid results. NBA... for whatever reason, can't figure it out. I will make another run this year, after I fine tune the algorithms early November.

I appreciate your input.

I post my picks fairly, and I take in the math and modelling that I have spent time on. My picks are well documented on NCAAB forum... I am ready to make a charge at the castle again in college football and NFL. Show me one other model that predicts the score of each team... so I can compare. I lay it out there... I don't see others doing that. If they are... point me in their direction.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[Waterstpub87]

I don't think any decent model will be out there to compare it to. If something works, people tend to guard it.

Your description doesn't make a lot of sense. You are waiting till week four, meaning you are judging off of 2 or 3 games. This is a widely small sample size. If you were using data from past years, I don't believe you would wait that long.

College football is geometric. Not only do you have to account for the performance of teams, you have to reconcile this against the strength of the teams they played. If you are doing this off of two games, I doubt you will be able to build a robust model.

I'm happy for you. I am a modeler as well. I get it, I wish you luck. But logically it isn't making sense.

[A Quant]

I don't think any decent model will be out there to compare it to. If something works, people tend to guard it.

Your description doesn't make a lot of sense. You are waiting till week four, meaning you are judging off of 2 or 3 games. This is a widely small sample size. If you were using data from past years, I don't believe you would wait that long.

College football is geometric. Not only do you have to account for the performance of teams, you have to reconcile this against the strength of the teams they played. If you are doing this off of two games, I doubt you will be able to build a robust model.

I'm happy for you. I am a modeler as well. I get it, I wish you luck. But logically it isn't making sense.

EXACTLY. Waiting to Week 4 makes even less sense when you consider the variability of scheduling.

The first 3-4 weeks in college football are "mostly" body bag games----Just as an example, take a look at Louisville---- they open with Austin Peay and then Jacksonville State---- then they have a bye before playing Georgia Tech. What will the first three weeks have shown anyone about Louisville?

There are so many examples of this--- Rutgers begins with Howard and Akron before a 3rd week bye. Missouri has Murray State and Buffalo and then a bye.

usma1992 was horrible betting college football last year-- his "model" hit like 40%, he constantly references college basketball because his college football modelling was a complete shit show.

[usma1992]

Well, I would prefer to wait until Week 6 or 7 but then... half of the season is over. The reality is that if I have one model that works (huge)... that is significantly more than most. Again, the lessons that I continue to learn bridge to my other programs. As A Quant, an individual who has yet to produce anything of value, stated... my college basketball is my best program because it didn't just win it crushed it. The truth is that I don't need any other model to work if that one works.

However, last season was a tremendous learning experience across the board for me. I have a proprietary way of evaluating my statistics and accounted for strength of schedule and the teams they have played. Yes, college football is difficult based on the first few weeks because of the mismatched match-ups.

I will stay my course and ignore the haters. There is a reason I have 35K views on college basketball and there will be a reason this thread is followed also. I believe this is my inflection point in my model for college football and NFL.

The jury is coming in and no matter what happens... I am going to be tough to beat shortly. Why? Because I don't put my head in the sand and I continue to learn and improve. If I am wrong, I am wrong, and ask why. Then I improve and move forward. I am sure if the model struggles, I will hear about it. But, I will just take all the lessons and make it stronger next season. I am too close to the finish line at this point.

However, I appreciate any input.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[A Quant]

Well, I would prefer to wait until Week 6 or 7 but then... half of the season is over. The reality is that if I have one model that works (huge)... that is significantly more than most. Again, the lessons that I continue to learn bridge to my other programs. As A Quant, an individual who has yet to produce anything of value, stated... my college basketball is my best program because it didn't just win it crushed it. The truth is that I don't need any other model to work if that one works.

However, last season was a tremendous learning experience across the board for me. I have a proprietary way of evaluating my statistics and accounted for strength of schedule and the teams they have played. Yes, college football is difficult based on the first few weeks because of the mismatched match-ups.

I will stay my course and ignore the haters. There is a reason I have 35K views on college basketball and there will be a reason this thread is followed also. I believe this is my inflection point in my model for college football and NFL.

The jury is coming in and no matter what happens... I am going to be tough to beat shortly. Why? Because I don't put my head in the sand and I continue to learn and improve. If I am wrong, I am wrong, and ask why. Then I improve and move forward. I am sure if the model struggles, I will hear about it. But, I will just take all the lessons and make it stronger next season. I am too close to the finish line at this point.

However, I appreciate any input.

Dave
Mack the Teach

How about this sparky.

You and I, head to head. I've done this to countless posers over the years.

We can even start week 4---- 7 sides/totals a week.

Loser donates $1000 to the winner's charity of choice.

You in?

Let's see if you are really believe in your shitty model. Results speak for themselves--- You couldn't pick a college football winner if someone gave it to you.

[A Quant]

Well, I would prefer to wait until Week 6 or 7 but then... half of the season is over. The reality is that if I have one model that works (huge)... that is significantly more than most. Again, the lessons that I continue to learn bridge to my other programs. As A Quant, an individual who has yet to produce anything of value, stated... my college basketball is my best program because it didn't just win it crushed it. The truth is that I don't need any other model to work if that one works.

However, last season was a tremendous learning experience across the board for me. I have a proprietary way of evaluating my statistics and accounted for strength of schedule and the teams they have played. Yes, college football is difficult based on the first few weeks because of the mismatched match-ups.

I will stay my course and ignore the haters. There is a reason I have 35K views on college basketball and there will be a reason this thread is followed also. I believe this is my inflection point in my model for college football and NFL.

The jury is coming in and no matter what happens... I am going to be tough to beat shortly. Why? Because I don't put my head in the sand and I continue to learn and improve. If I am wrong, I am wrong, and ask why. Then I improve and move forward. I am sure if the model struggles, I will hear about it. But, I will just take all the lessons and make it stronger next season. I am too close to the finish line at this point.

However, I appreciate any input.

Dave
Mack the Teach

Do you know why you will fail?

Because you don't know what you don't know.

Read that AGAIN.

You can't even decide which is the smarter path--- many games spreading risk, or "diversifying" as you want to call it, or simply finding the very best plays you have an edge on and bet more aggressively.

If you asked that question-- and you did, then you do not have the slightest clue what you are doing.

Do you honestly think you are attempting something ORIGINAL? Men, many many men-- much smarter than you and those who can write the very best programs using mountains of data have tried to model--- and there is one thing they simply could not quantify.

Variance. It is a bitch. And its very real when attempting to model sports betting. You can't squeeze it into an equation (even though the best have tried), because how do you assign a value to a completely random event in such a small sample size?

My favorite part of your delusion is how you seemingly thinking you solved all your issues by having one good season betting sports-- while ignoring the horror fest you laid in college football last year. I mean, YOU SUCKED in college football. You'll never beat the line-- not with you never understanding what the real goal is, or how best to do it.

[Waterstpub87]

I don't know why people need to get to the insults so quickly.

Good luck

[A Quant]

I don't know why people need to get to the insults so quickly.

Good luck

Because this guy started all kinds of shit with me last year--- and sent me absolutely INSANE DMs.

I posted them, but then removed them after Opti asked me to.

And, his attempt at touting is never well received on these boards. Which is all this is aimed at---- he is trying to desperately turn this into cash.

[usma1992]

I start all sorts of shit... I don't think I have started anything... all I do is post my numbers...

A Quant (Sparky)... here is my proposal... it is very simple. I will run my three mathematical models that I think work (NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB). I will start my mathematical model of college football on the 4th week and the NFL on the 4th week. I will start my college basketball model on Thanksgiving Day. You can begin posting your picks anytime you want. You can begin Week 1 of each. All I ask is the picks are posted before the games start obviously.

We post our picks for the week or daily as college basketball happens... and we see who wins. I am not up for $1000 to charity but I am up for $100... but I will give you 3-1 odds. So If I win... you only owe $100, if you win I will donate $300 to the Wounded Warriors.

So we will go from now until March 1st. You don't have to bet any weekend or game if you don't want. For instance, I will not be betting the last week of the NFL because half of the players sit out.

Only a couple of caveats... I don't want you using my model numbers so you post your picks first. I assure you that you will not change my math or my numbers... but I am not convinced that the reverse isn't true. Or we can post the same time... which is fine with me.

Second... on every over bet in football... I have a right to glance at the weather. If it is a torrential downpour or 30mph winds, I have a right to say no bet. I will succumb to your overtime rules and we will just look at the final score. Finally, if I catch it which I doubt... if the college QB that generated all the stats is hurt I can toss out the game. These toss outs have to be done before the game starts obviously.

I will separate all my bets into 3,4, and 5 star bets but... for the sake of the competition... we will just keep them all to one unit.

ARE YOU GAME???? You get a head start... you begin betting whenever you want... I will stick to my system. If you are, create a thread on each sport specifically for this competition so we can keep it straight. I can't do more than that.

Are there any exceptions you need to start the competition? Any caveats you need? I want this to be fair. Speak up or forever hold your peace. I'm giving you 3-1 odds... That's the best I can do.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

I will await your response.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[A Quant]

This is a football board.

It is a football contest.

But if it means, making you look like a moron, I will gladly take the bet and include college basketball for whatever reason.

Are you creating the thread? Or am I? Just title it AQ v usmc.

Using a thread allows for easy grading.

And I don't want your odds--- I don't need them. If you are willing to lose $300-- then it is 300 for 300.

And since it is 1/unit per--- Are moneyline bets included? And are we using 110 lines?

And what is the winner? Net units?