Here we GO... Almost Time... Been a Long Wait if your a football fan...

**usma1992** · 09-11-24, 07:07 PM

Waters

Yes the color is better... Apparently, I have to save my picks to google doc in order to keep the color. I will try to align header... I have no idea why that isn't aligned. It obviously aligned in my program so I can't tell what is going on.

A Quant...

I will first address the 10-7-1 comment versus my 11-7 stated record. I DO NOT TAKE OT into ACCOUNT. I repeat I DO NOT TAKE OT into ACCOUNT. Whatever the score is at the end of regulation that is what gets recorded. Whatever happens in OT, I don't care. I will win some games that I count as losses and I will lose some games that I count as wins. My model is trying to predict what happens in regulation time. All bets are off in OT. So the Arkansas OK St game was tied at end of regulation, and my system said takes Arkansas and the points, that counts as a win. You can argue with me until your hearts content. My model will always predict the end of score in regulation. In truth, there is no other way to model it. The time in the game has to be standardized.

As far as NIU... versus Pitt... all of this is based off of one games statistics. However, it is still awesome that I predicted down to the margin of victory the NIU score. Nobody would have believed that to be possible.

Water and A Quant...

The more data... the more stats will normalize. Haven't I stated from day 1 that I don't bet Week 1 or Week 2 or Week 3. The scores and stats are going to be crazy skewed. In fact, I am worried that Week 4 might be too early, but I have decided to bet that week anyway.

You both look at my numbers and say they are way off. Of course, they are it has only been two weeks. They will fall in line.

What I am tracking this season during the first few weeks is not my numbers but my algorithmic match up filters beyond the numbers. Generating my projected numbers is only the first step in my process. I then filter my picks based on parameters and past match up data. I have tracked multiple games at this point and what I am analyzing the most right now is where my model is weak versus Vegas and where it is strong.

As stated, I used this process during college basketball and crushed it. I am going to use the same process here. What I believe that I am doing somewhat unique is that I first generate my own numbers. This has almost nothing to do with Vegas. NOTHING. But based on past data and experience I have examined matchups that work with my projected numbers. This is why some games that show an obvious bet are not bet and some games that are closer to Vegas say to bet it.

I have examined game after game after game. Right now, my projected points teamed up with filtered algorithms work.

See me in a couple of weeks when things normalize. Maybe I go 0-whatever this week. I love where my model sits and it will only get better.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-11-24, 07:14 PM

I think the easiest way to explain my model is that it has sweet spots where the projected numbers match up with my algorithmic matchup filters. If the projected scream bet it... but the algorithmic filters say no... it doesn't bet it. If the algorithmic filters say bet it but my projected numbers say no... it doesn't bet it.

If both are in agreement... then it says bet it. I have tougher criteria for 5 star games versus 3 star games.

Let's see how it plays out... I am confident that I got one model working and I am confident that the other two are close. As for NBA... I am about to call them NBA(Never Bet Again).

9/11 today... I was working in the Twin Towers two years early. Tough day!!!

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-11-24, 07:28 PM

	NCAAF	2024Week3			O/U& SPREADS			NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET	Actual Away	Actual Home
7:30 PM	Arizona State	27	Texas State	23	50	1.5	58		Under 3*	0	0
7:00 PM	UNLV	28	Kansas	15	43	-7	56.5			0	0
8:00 PM	Arizona	19	Kansas State	21	40	-7	58			0	0
12:00 PM	Oklahoma State	47	Tulsa	0	47	20	62.5			0	0
12:00 PM	North Texas	16	Texas Tech	23	39	-9.5	68.5		Under 5*	0	0
12:00 PM	Alabama	39	Wisconsin	4	43	16	51			0	0
12:00 PM	Central Michigan	15	Illinois	29	44	-20	51			0	0
12:00 PM	Memphis	27	Florida State	15	42	-6.5	52		Under 5*	0	0
12:00 PM	Cincinnati	25	Miami (Ohio)	42	67	2.5	45	Home Plus 5*	Over 5*	0	0
12:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	28	North Carolina Sta	21	49	-21.5	51			0	0
12:00 PM	LSU	32	South Carolina	17	49	7	50.5			0	0
12:00 PM	Arkansas State	25	Michigan	21	46	-22	45.5			0	0
12:45 PM	Boston College	36	Missouri	10	46	-16.5	54			0	0
1:00 PM	Massachusetts	35	Buffalo	13	48	-4.5	45			0	0
2:00 PM	Coastal Carolina	42	Temple	29	71	17.5	51.5			0	0
3:30 PM	Texas A&M	45	Florida	6	51	4.5	46.5			0	0
3:30 PM	Washington State	35	Washington	25	60	-4.5	56.5			0	0

**usma1992** · 09-11-24, 07:29 PM

3:30 PM	Oregon	38	Oregon State	25	63	16	50
3:30 PM	West Virginia	17	Pittsburgh	25	42	2	60.5
3:30 PM	Ball State	19	Miami (Florida)	34	53	-36.5	54.5
3:30 PM	Tulane	19	Oklahoma	27	46	-14	50
3:30 PM	Nevada	38	Minnesota	19	57	-16.5	43.5
3:30 PM	Notre Dame	31	Purdue	11	42	10.5	46	Away Minus 3*
4:00 PM	Appalachian State	17	East Carolina	50	67	2.5	58.5	Home Plus 5*
4:00 PM	Troy	28	Iowa	47	75	-22.5	39		Over 5*
4:15 PM	UAB	12	Arkansas	46	58	-24	60
4:30 PM	Utah	29	Utah State	18	47	21.5	46.5
6:00 PM	Virginia Tech	26	Old Dominion	7	33	14	50
6:00 PM	UTEP	5	Liberty	0	5	-23	57.5
6:00 PM	Connecticut	11	Duke	37	48	-17	47.5
6:00 PM	Florida Internatio	8	Florida Atlantic	13	21	-4.5	43		Under 5*
6:30 PM	Mississippi	28	Wake Forest	10	38	24	63.5
7:00 PM	Western Kentucky	22	Middle Tennessee	25	47	7	54
7:00 PM	Jacksonville State	15	Eastern Michigan	30	45	-2.5	49.5
7:00 PM	Vanderbilt	18	Georgia State	27	45	11	46
7:00 PM	UTSA	17	Texas	29	46	-34.5	53.5		Under 3*
7:00 PM	Hawai'i	11	Sam Houston State	25	36	-5.5	49.5		Under 5*

**usma1992** · 09-11-24, 07:29 PM

7:00 PM	South Florida	27	Southern Mississip	28	55	11	58.5	Home Plus 5*
7:30 PM	Toledo	25	Mississippi State	44	69	-11	59.5		Over 5*
7:30 PM	New Mexico	16	Auburn	17	33	-28	61		Under 5*
7:30 PM	Air Force	17	Baylor	15	32	-16.5	41.5		Under 5*
7:30 PM	UCF	30	TCU	24	54	-1.5	61	Away Plus 5*
7:30 PM	Georgia	49	Kentucky	0	49	24	45
7:30 PM	Colorado	28	Colorado State	15	43	7.5	58.5
7:30 PM	Indiana	27	UCLA	15	42	2.5	47	Away Minus 3*
7:45 PM	Kent State	0	Tennessee	56	56	-49.5	62.5
8:00 PM	Rice	34	Houston	13	47	-4.5	44.5
8:00 PM	Maryland	31	Virginia	21	52	2.5	55
9:00 PM	BYU	46	Wyoming	0	46	11	39
10:30 PM	New Mexico State	20	Fresno State	31	51	-20	48
10:30 PM	San Diego State	19	California	18	37	-19	51
10:30 PM	Kennesaw State	20	San Jose State	18	38	-18.5	43.5

**Waterstpub87** · 09-11-24, 07:31 PM

The pasting can get messed up. Sometimes it tries to build it into a table in the post. Consider copy pasting it into paint, cropping and saving as an image, then posting the image instead.

If you have to build another process to filter when your numbers are bad, perhaps you should re-look at the numbers.

**usma1992** · 09-11-24, 07:54 PM

Waterst,

I fixed it ... As a one man show... I am constantly fixing things. I am really comfortable with my numbers. I will revisit if necessary... I feel there is no reason to do that at this point. The reality is who cares. If my numbers are off... my algorithmic filters are off ... yet where they collide hits a high percentage... I will run with it.

One thing ... I don't get. I know I have mentioned my college basketball program as my success story which it was. But I have really only posted it on my NFL thread and my NCAAF thread and a contest thread with A Quant on completely different board. I looked at my college basketball thread at the beginning of August... and it has had 7K views since then. College basketball isn't even remotely close to being in season. Is it bots that are hitting the thread? Is it the fact that I have mentioned that I believe I have a a working model on NFL and NCAAF thread?

It doesn't make sense to me. Who is viewing a college basketball thread at this time?

Dave
Mack the Teach

**Waterstpub87** · 09-11-24, 08:00 PM

No way to know. It's possible. Or people just randomly clicking. Many posts I had in the think tank had 1000s of views and no replies.

Think I read somewhere that 90%+ of the internet traffic is passive. Most people read but never post.

**usma1992** · 09-11-24, 08:26 PM

Here is what I about to do...

Win. I'm ready... in 180 days.. starting Sept 1... to March 1st... I will be up and up significantly.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**A Quant** · 09-12-24, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Yes the color is better... Apparently, I have to save my picks to google doc in order to keep the color. I will try to align header... I have no idea why that isn't aligned. It obviously aligned in my program so I can't tell what is going on.

A Quant...

I will first address the 10-7-1 comment versus my 11-7 stated record. I DO NOT TAKE OT into ACCOUNT. I repeat I DO NOT TAKE OT into ACCOUNT. Whatever the score is at the end of regulation that is what gets recorded. Whatever happens in OT, I don't care. I will win some games that I count as losses and I will lose some games that I count as wins. My model is trying to predict what happens in regulation time. All bets are off in OT. So the Arkansas OK St game was tied at end of regulation, and my system said takes Arkansas and the points, that counts as a win. You can argue with me until your hearts content. My model will always predict the end of score in regulation. In truth, there is no other way to model it. The time in the game has to be standardized.

ARE YOU FUKKKING MENTAL?

What do you mean, "you don't take OT into account"? So then you do not bet?

Because I want to see you lose a wager and then call your book and explain to them you really won, when in fact your game lost in OT.

This is is why I think you are complete penetrating lunatic.

In all my years on these boards, no one has ever suggested OT rules do not apply to their bets.

And you better not try that shit in our contest next week, because that shit will not fly.

**A Quant** · 09-12-24, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

Here is what I about to do...

Win. I'm ready... in 180 days.. starting Sept 1... to March 1st... I will be up and up significantly.

Dave
Mack the Teach

No you won't. And I bet on it.

Just watch it all come apart.

**usma1992** · 09-12-24, 04:52 PM

I don't think you understand. Tried explaining it to you.

You don't get it.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-12-24, 06:51 PM

A Quant,

This is my last attempt to explain what you may not understand. I will not try further. You are focused on the result rather than being focused on whether you were right or wrong by placing the bet. Your take is that you were right if you win and you were wrong if you lost. This couldn't be farther from the truth. A tough lesson to learn as a gambler.

If you are a 95% favorite in a poker hand and you force the guy to put all is his money in... and he wins on a 5% out. He sucks out on you and wins the hand. Did you win or lose? Your take is that you lost. Not the case. You forced a guy to put all his money in with a 5% chance, regardless of the outcome ... you won. Yes, I understand that your chips suddenly get moved from your side to your opponents side and it sucks. But you still won. You forced them to bet all their money on an improbable outcome when you were way ahead and just got unlucky. You were right.

Fast forward... I am building several models actually to predict the outcome of sports. If I predict that Arkansas will stay within 8 points and at the end of regulation they do... I have won. If Ok State needs overtime and a 2 point conversion to beat me or a push... so be it. That is an anomaly that you will never be able to model and frankly I could care less too. FWI... I take it as a loss like I did at least once in college basketball. Stetson was favored by -5 or so... and they went into OT and Stetson won by 7. That is a loss regardless of whether it won or not.

All you are focused on is the end score. You are missing the entire point. Here is a simple question... If you had bet Oklahoma State as a lock... put huge dollars on... would you feel like you deserved to win that bet... or just got lucky as hell to survive.

I played in the World Series of Poker several years back and I have a buddy that played too. He did not take my advice on the OK State game... despite my picks. I told him don't take the bet and he took it anyway.

The difference between him and you. I text him... and said my system was right... you hit a runner runner straight to stay alive. He said absolutely... I hit a runner runner, I was so f'in lucky. You think my system didn't win that bet and it did. Until you understand that basic concept ... I fear for your results.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**veriableodds** · 09-13-24, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Please do not post it here, or solicit sales via SBR in any way.

We have a no tolerance policy for touts.

I have reserved thoughts on solicit here also via sbr forum. Thats exactly what this page is Free Sports Picks & Best Bets Today | SBR - Betting Experts since 1999 (sportsbookreview.com)
I'm sure somehow some way this leads to a pay for picks page. The worst part about it is they just suck, awful horrid picks. Looks like a copy and paste using the most common find stats. How is that right??/justified??

**usma1992** · 09-14-24, 10:10 AM

I honestly have no idea what you are talking about. All my math is done by me on my computer. I post all my picks ahead of time. Do I use statistics to produce my numbers? Absolutely. You can check my NBA thread which didn't work... my NFL thread last year or this year... and you can check my NCAAB thread day by day mathematically predicted numbers.

Please keep your noise away.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**veriableodds** · 09-14-24, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

I honestly have no idea what you are talking about. All my math is done by me on my computer. I post all my picks ahead of time. Do I use statistics to produce my numbers? Absolutely. You can check my NBA thread which didn't work... my NFL thread last year or this year... and you can check my NCAAB thread day by day mathematically predicted numbers.

Please keep your noise away.

Dave
Mack the Teach

It's just a question directed at OPTI not you (his post#5). He is giving you a warning but yet this site seems to have a picks page which somehow someway the guys offering free picks on the page link above are paid touts from other venues. Usma1992 I appreciate your picks actually. They look genuine and have merit. You are trying and can only get better with time. I think stats are the way to go. Win a million
GL

**usma1992** · 09-15-24, 03:54 AM

Veriable,

Sorry to assume the worst. My real journey starts next week.... I haven't bet until now. Again, my college basketball worked well... I think I can get the others up to speed. 8-9 this weekend so a losing record. Overall I'm up a couple of units... no complaints. Thank you for having my back.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-16-24, 10:56 AM

Time to Start Betting... I might be a week early but I am going to take a shot anyway.

	NCAAF	2024Week4			O/U& SPREADS			NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	South Alabama	40	Appalachian State	39	79	-7	64.5	Away Plus 5*
7:30 PM	Stanford	25	Syracuse	37	62	-9.5	57
8:00 PM	Illinois	9	Nebraska	20	29	-9	43.5		Under 5*
10:00 PM	San Jose State	24	Washington State	23	47	-14	55	Away Plus 5*
12:00 PM	Houston	17	Cincinnati	25	42	-5.5	48.5	Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Marshall	3	Ohio State	43	46	-39.5	51
12:00 PM	Charlotte	0	Indiana	47	47	-27.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Kansas	26	West Virginia	18	44	-2.5	57.5
12:00 PM	James Madison	3	North Carolina	22	25	-10	48
12:00 PM	Georgia Tech	10	Louisville	36	46	-10	58
12:00 PM	North Carolina Sta	18	Clemson	35	53	-17	48		Over 3*
12:00 PM	Rice	7	Army	33	40	-6.5	42.5	Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Tulane	12	Louisiana-Lafayett	23	35	3.5	55	Home Plus 5*
12:00 PM	Florida	20	Mississippi State	21	41	4.5	58.5	Home Plus 5*
12:45 PM	Ohio	6	Kentucky	13	19	-18.5	42.5		Under 5*
1:00 PM	Ball State	16	Central Michigan	37	53	-7	53
2:00 PM	Virginia	25	Coastal Carolina	31	56	3	55	Home Plus 5*
2:00 PM	Utah State	27	Temple	18	45	6	51.5
2:00 PM	Arkansas State	18	Iowa State	24	42	-21.5	51.5
3:00 PM	Southern Mississip	24	Jacksonville State	23	47	-6	61	Away Plus 3*
3:30 PM	Kent State	0	Penn State	49	49	-49.5	54.5
3:30 PM	Buffalo	3	Northern Illinois	31	34	-14	45
3:30 PM	Rutgers	26	Virginia Tech	21	47	-4.5	45
3:30 PM	Arkansas	38	Auburn	22	60	-4	58	Away Plus 5*
3:30 PM	Arizona State	39	Texas Tech	39	78	-3.5	60.5
3:30 PM	USC	32	Michigan	7	39	5.5	46.5
3:30 PM	UCLA	6	LSU	35	41	-23	56.5		Under 5*
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	0	Notre Dame	35	35	-27	43.5		Under 3*
3:30 PM	Memphis	20	Navy	26	46	10.5	50.5
4:00 PM	Utah	31	Oklahoma State	26	57	-2.5	52	Away Plus 5*
4:00 PM	Duke	42	Middle Tennessee	5	47	14	53.5
4:15 PM	Vanderbilt	3	Missouri	43	46	-21	54
5:00 PM	UTEP	18	Colorado State	26	44	-10	50.5
5:00 PM	TCU	26	SMU	27	53	2.5	58	Home Plus 3*
6:00 PM	East Carolina	24	Liberty	25	49	-7.5	54
7:00 PM	Miami (Florida)	44	South Florida	17	61	18	65
7:00 PM	California	23	Florida State	4	27	-1.5	44.5
7:00 PM	Northwestern	11	Washington	22	33	-11	43.5		Under 5*
7:00 PM	Wyoming	16	North Texas	42	58	-9	55.5
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	24	Connecticut	25	49	-2.5	46.5
7:00 PM	Tulsa	23	Louisiana Tech	24	47	-2.5	57		Under 5*
7:00 PM	New Mexico State	10	Sam Houston State	33	43	-14	44
7:00 PM	Toledo	30	Western Kentucky	24	54	0	59
7:30 PM	Akron	6	South Carolina	37	43	-27.5	47
7:30 PM	Iowa	16	Minnesota	10	26	2.5	36		Under 5*
7:30 PM	Tennessee	34	Oklahoma	10	44	0	58
7:30 PM	Bowling Green	14	Texas A&M	37	51	-23	52.5
7:45 PM	Georgia Southern	6	Mississippi	64	70	-35.5	66
8:00 PM	Michigan State	15	Boston College	12	27	-6.5	46
8:00 PM	Baylor	21	Colorado	13	34	-1	53.5
8:00 PM	Louisiana-Monroe	19	Texas	40	59	-45	53
8:30 PM	Fresno State	47	New Mexico	19	66	15	61.5
8:30 PM	Purdue	14	Oregon State	32	46	-6	50.5
10:30 PM	Kansas State	14	BYU	21	35	7	48		Under 5*

The trial starts today

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-16-24, 05:16 PM

Include Tenn -7... sorry they didn't have a line. I am betting this week and the rest of the season. A Quant you can post your picks whenever you see fit. I started my thread on Player's Talk too. I think you will quickly realize that you have bit off more than you can chew. I have looked at your college picks so far and they have been rough. But it is early. When college basketball hits and you are trying to analyze hundred games on a weekend and it takes me 10 minutes then you will know.

I can only get better. Good luck to all.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-16-24, 05:45 PM

FWI, here is how you can help ... if interested. I ask this all the time and get no response ... other than from haters that say it can't be done. If you really like a game that my numbers match up on ... tell me. I will look into the algorithmic filters and see if I can create something that works in the past and allows me to predict that game.

If you hate certain of my bets... simply tell me why. I can always get better.. and real time feedback from people actually laying their hard earned money on the line helps. However, don't just say... I hate that bet... I can't do anything with that information. I appreciate any reasonable feedback.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-16-24, 06:30 PM

I added a couple of games... didn't delete anything...

	NCAAF	2024Week4			O/U& SPREADS			NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	South Alabama	40	Appalachian State	39	79	-7	64.5	Away Plus 5*
7:30 PM	Stanford	25	Syracuse	37	62	-9.5	57
8:00 PM	Illinois	9	Nebraska	20	29	-9	43.5		Under 5*
10:00 PM	San Jose State	24	Washington State	23	47	-14	55	Away Plus 5*
12:00 PM	Houston	17	Cincinnati	25	42	-5.5	48.5	Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Marshall	3	Ohio State	43	46	-39.5	51
12:00 PM	Charlotte	0	Indiana	47	47	-27.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Kansas	26	West Virginia	18	44	-2.5	57.5
12:00 PM	James Madison	3	North Carolina	22	25	-10	48		Under 5*
12:00 PM	Georgia Tech	10	Louisville	36	46	-10	58
12:00 PM	North Carolina Sta	18	Clemson	35	53	-17	48		Over 3*
12:00 PM	Rice	7	Army	33	40	-6.5	42.5	Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Tulane	12	Louisiana-Lafayett	23	35	3.5	55	Home Plus 5*	Under 3*
12:00 PM	Florida	20	Mississippi State	21	41	4.5	58.5	Home Plus 5*	Under 3*
12:45 PM	Ohio	6	Kentucky	13	19	-18.5	42.5		Under 5*
1:00 PM	Ball State	16	Central Michigan	37	53	-7	53
2:00 PM	Virginia	25	Coastal Carolina	31	56	3	55	Home Plus 5*
2:00 PM	Utah State	27	Temple	18	45	6	51.5
2:00 PM	Arkansas State	18	Iowa State	24	42	-21.5	51.5
3:00 PM	Southern Mississip	24	Jacksonville State	23	47	-6	61	Away Plus 3*
3:30 PM	Kent State	0	Penn State	49	49	-49.5	54.5
3:30 PM	Buffalo	3	Northern Illinois	31	34	-14	45
3:30 PM	Rutgers	26	Virginia Tech	21	47	-4.5	45
3:30 PM	Arkansas	38	Auburn	22	60	-4	58	Away Plus 5*
3:30 PM	Arizona State	39	Texas Tech	39	78	-3.5	60.5
3:30 PM	USC	32	Michigan	7	39	5.5	46.5
3:30 PM	UCLA	6	LSU	35	41	-23	56.5		Under 5*
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	0	Notre Dame	35	35	-27	43.5		Under 3*
3:30 PM	Memphis	20	Navy	26	46	10.5	50.5
4:00 PM	Utah	31	Oklahoma State	26	57	-2.5	52	Away Plus 5*
4:00 PM	Duke	42	Middle Tennessee	5	47	14	53.5
4:15 PM	Vanderbilt	3	Missouri	43	46	-21	54
5:00 PM	UTEP	18	Colorado State	26	44	-10	50.5
5:00 PM	TCU	26	SMU	27	53	2.5	58	Home Plus 3*
6:00 PM	East Carolina	24	Liberty	25	49	-7.5	54
7:00 PM	Miami (Florida)	44	South Florida	17	61	18	65
7:00 PM	California	23	Florida State	4	27	-1.5	44.5		Under 3*
7:00 PM	Northwestern	11	Washington	22	33	-11	43.5		Under 5*
7:00 PM	Wyoming	16	North Texas	42	58	-9	55.5
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	24	Connecticut	25	49	-2.5	46.5
7:00 PM	Tulsa	23	Louisiana Tech	24	47	-2.5	57		Under 5*
7:00 PM	New Mexico State	10	Sam Houston State	33	43	-14	44
7:00 PM	Toledo	30	Western Kentucky	24	54	0	59
7:30 PM	Akron	6	South Carolina	37	43	-27.5	47
7:30 PM	Iowa	16	Minnesota	10	26	2.5	36		Under 5*
7:30 PM	Tennessee	36	Oklahoma	8	44	7	58	Away Minus 5*
7:30 PM	Bowling Green	14	Texas A&M	37	51	-23	52.5
7:45 PM	Georgia Southern	6	Mississippi	64	70	-35.5	66
8:00 PM	Michigan State	15	Boston College	12	27	-6.5	46		Under 3*
8:00 PM	Baylor	21	Colorado	13	34	-1	53.5		Under 3*
8:00 PM	Louisiana-Monroe	19	Texas	40	59	-45	53
8:30 PM	Fresno State	47	New Mexico	19	66	15	61.5
8:30 PM	Purdue	14	Oregon State	32	46	-6	50.5
10:30 PM	Kansas State	14	BYU	21	35	7	48		Under 5*

**usma1992** · 09-17-24, 05:13 AM

Final Version... A Couple of small tweaks. A little concerned about the amount of unders... but I know why it is occurring. I will only adjust if need be.

	NCAAF	2024Week4			O/U& SPREADS			NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	South Alabama	40	Appalachian State	39	79	-7	64.5	Away Plus 5*
7:30 PM	Stanford	25	Syracuse	37	62	-9.5	57
8:00 PM	Illinois	9	Nebraska	20	29	-9	43.5		Under 5*
10:00 PM	San Jose State	24	Washington State	23	47	-14	55	Away Plus 5*
12:00 PM	Houston	17	Cincinnati	25	42	-5.5	48.5	Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Marshall	3	Ohio State	43	46	-39.5	51
12:00 PM	Charlotte	0	Indiana	47	47	-27.5	48.5
12:00 PM	Kansas	26	West Virginia	18	44	-2.5	57.5
12:00 PM	James Madison	3	North Carolina	22	25	-10	48		Under 5*
12:00 PM	Georgia Tech	10	Louisville	36	46	-10	58
12:00 PM	North Carolina Sta	18	Clemson	35	53	-17	48		Over 3*
12:00 PM	Rice	7	Army	33	40	-6.5	42.5	Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Tulane	12	Louisiana-Lafayett	23	35	3.5	55	Home Plus 5*
12:00 PM	Florida	20	Mississippi State	21	41	4.5	58.5	Home Plus 5*	Under 3*
12:45 PM	Ohio	6	Kentucky	13	19	-18.5	42.5		Under 5*
1:00 PM	Ball State	16	Central Michigan	37	53	-7	53
2:00 PM	Virginia	25	Coastal Carolina	31	56	3	55	Home Plus 5*
2:00 PM	Utah State	27	Temple	18	45	6	51.5
2:00 PM	Arkansas State	18	Iowa State	24	42	-21.5	51.5
3:00 PM	Southern Mississip	24	Jacksonville State	23	47	-6	61	Away Plus 3*
3:30 PM	Kent State	0	Penn State	49	49	-49.5	54.5
3:30 PM	Buffalo	3	Northern Illinois	31	34	-14	45
3:30 PM	Rutgers	26	Virginia Tech	21	47	-4.5	45
3:30 PM	Arkansas	38	Auburn	22	60	-4	58	Away Plus 5*
3:30 PM	Arizona State	39	Texas Tech	39	78	-3.5	60.5
3:30 PM	USC	32	Michigan	7	39	5.5	46.5
3:30 PM	UCLA	6	LSU	35	41	-23	56.5		Under 5*
3:30 PM	Miami (Ohio)	0	Notre Dame	35	35	-27	43.5		Under 3*
3:30 PM	Memphis	20	Navy	26	46	10.5	50.5
4:00 PM	Utah	31	Oklahoma State	26	57	-2.5	52	Away Plus 5*
4:00 PM	Duke	42	Middle Tennessee	5	47	14	53.5
4:15 PM	Vanderbilt	3	Missouri	43	46	-21	54
5:00 PM	UTEP	18	Colorado State	26	44	-10	50.5
5:00 PM	TCU	26	SMU	27	53	2.5	58	Home Plus 3*
6:00 PM	East Carolina	24	Liberty	25	49	-7.5	54
7:00 PM	Miami (Florida)	44	South Florida	17	61	18	65
7:00 PM	California	23	Florida State	4	27	-1.5	44.5
7:00 PM	Northwestern	11	Washington	22	33	-11	43.5		Under 5*
7:00 PM	Wyoming	16	North Texas	42	58	-9	55.5
7:00 PM	Florida Atlantic	24	Connecticut	25	49	-2.5	46.5
7:00 PM	Tulsa	23	Louisiana Tech	24	47	-2.5	57		Under 5*
7:00 PM	New Mexico State	10	Sam Houston State	33	43	-14	44
7:00 PM	Toledo	30	Western Kentucky	24	54	0	59
7:30 PM	Akron	6	South Carolina	37	43	-27.5	47
7:30 PM	Iowa	16	Minnesota	10	26	2.5	36		Under 5*
7:30 PM	Tennessee	36	Oklahoma	8	44	7	58	Away Minus 5*
7:30 PM	Bowling Green	14	Texas A&M	37	51	-23	52.5
7:45 PM	Georgia Southern	6	Mississippi	64	70	-35.5	66
8:00 PM	Michigan State	15	Boston College	12	27	-6.5	46
8:00 PM	Baylor	21	Colorado	13	34	-1	53.5
8:00 PM	Louisiana-Monroe	19	Texas	40	59	-45	53
8:30 PM	Fresno State	47	New Mexico	19	66	15	61.5
8:30 PM	Purdue	14	Oregon State	32	46	-6	50.5
10:30 PM	Kansas State	14	BYU	21	35	7	48		Under 5*

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-18-24, 06:39 PM

I have decided to not bet week 3 NFL games. Here is the reason... I have looked over my past data and I have decided to wait until NFL games get to a reasonable number. Week 4... I have posted my picks but I have come to the conclusion that I can not accurately predict reasonably any game based on two outings.

I am currently betting 13 bets in the NFL on a total of 16 games. My numbers need to get down to below 10 bets per week. I will then believe that my statistics have normalized.

In truth, college football bets are the same way so be careful. This week is averaging 23 bets which is way above the 13-15 bets that I average. Which means, I should have waited a week.

I will stand by my college bets for the sake of this competition. Next year, I plan to begin betting when my numbers normalize. I will only know this when the system runs its bets. 23 bets on college is way too high. I definitely should have waited a week. However, I stand by my college picks and I will take the rubbing from A Quant or whoever wants to bring it. I shouldn't have based when I start betting on weeks... I should have based it on when my numbers normalize.

NFL picks are way above the normal. I will wait until week 4 to bet.

This competition is already making my approach better. A Quant ... thank you.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-20-24, 09:08 AM

Nice Start to the Weekend... Looks like 1-0 NCAAF and 1-0 NFL. I am betting college this weekend... holding off on pro until next week. I picked South Alabama to win outright which was cool. About to board a flight ... heading to college gameday... Norman, OK.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-23-24, 06:27 PM

Made some upgrades... this is my final Version for Week 5.

	NCAAF	2024Week5			O/U& SPREADS			NO BETS UNTIL WEEK 4
Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:30 PM	Army	41	Temple	4	45	13.5	45.5
7:30 PM	Virginia Tech	8	Miami (Florida)	41	49	-17	56.5
8:00 PM	Washington	19	Rutgers	22	41	-2.5	46.5
12:00 PM	Northern Illinois	38	North Carolina Sta	17	55	-7	47
12:00 PM	Maryland	19	Indiana	32	51	-7	56
12:00 PM	Buffalo	11	Connecticut	28	39	-4.5	45.5	Home Minus 5*
12:00 PM	Western Kentucky	14	Boston College	33	47	-12.5	55.5
12:00 PM	Nebraska	31	Purdue	5	36	10	49
12:00 PM	Kentucky	0	Mississippi	37	37	-17.5	52
12:00 PM	Oklahoma State	24	Kansas State	28	52	-5.5	54.5
12:00 PM	South Florida	31	Tulane	30	61	-6.5	63
12:00 PM	Navy	38	UAB	31	69	2.5	56.5
12:00 PM	BYU	16	Baylor	13	29	-3	46
12:00 PM	Minnesota	12	Michigan	9	21	-10	39
1:30 PM	Ball State	19	James Madison	44	63	-19	56
3:00 PM	Texas State	36	Sam Houston State	19	55	8.5	56.5	Away Minus 3*
3:30 PM	Eastern Michigan	42	Kent State	0	42	13.5	49.5
3:30 PM	Liberty	40	Appalachian State	25	65	3.5	62.5	Away Minus 3*
3:30 PM	Georgia Southern	26	Georgia State	39	65	0	57.5		Over 5*
3:30 PM	San Diego State	17	Central Michigan	24	41	0	54.5
3:30 PM	Louisiana-Lafayett	33	Wake Forest	28	61	-2.5	60	Away Plus 5*
3:30 PM	Akron	11	Ohio	28	39	-12.5	46.5
3:30 PM	Massachusetts	20	Miami (Ohio)	17	37	-17	46.5
3:30 PM	Colorado	16	UCF	36	52	-14	63		Under 5*
3:30 PM	Western Michigan	12	Marshall	34	46	-5.5	53.5
3:30 PM	TCU	29	Kansas	26	55	-2.5	60.5
3:30 PM	Oklahoma	19	Auburn	16	35	3	47.5		Under 5*
3:30 PM	Louisiana-Monroe	9	Troy	17	26	-9	45.5		Under 5*
3:30 PM	Fresno State	20	UNLV	32	52	-4	52.5	Home Minus 5*
3:30 PM	Arkansas	36	Texas A&M	25	61	-4	52		Over 5*
3:30 PM	Louisville	18	Notre Dame	19	37	-4.5	47.5
3:30 PM	Wisconsin	16	USC	34	50	-14	50.5
4:00 PM	UTSA	24	East Carolina	34	58	-4.5	53.5
4:00 PM	North Carolina	25	Duke	27	52	-2.5	55.5
4:15 PM	Mississippi State	3	Texas	56	59	-39	61.5
5:00 PM	Old Dominion	18	Bowling Green	29	47	-9	50
6:00 PM	Louisiana Tech	26	Florida Internatio	12	38	2	51.5
7:00 PM	Stanford	22	Clemson	38	60	-22.5	57
7:00 PM	Iowa State	19	Houston	0	19	12.5	43		Under 3*
7:00 PM	Charlotte	12	Rice	29	41	-6.5	47.5
7:00 PM	Tulsa	31	North Texas	41	72	-7	68.5	Home Minus 5*
7:30 PM	Middle Tennessee	9	Memphis	49	58	-24.5	61.5
7:30 PM	Illinois	6	Penn State	29	35	-18.5	47
7:30 PM	Georgia	11	Alabama	17	28	2	50		Under 5*
7:45 PM	South Alabama	28	LSU	37	65	-20.5	64.5
8:00 PM	Florida State	8	SMU	32	40	-5.5	47
8:00 PM	Cincinnati	34	Texas Tech	42	76	-3.5	58	Home Minus 5*	Over 5*
8:00 PM	New Mexico	40	New Mexico State	22	62	7	57.5	Away Minus 3*
8:00 PM	Ohio State	32	Michigan State	4	36	24.5	49.5
8:00 PM	Air Force	28	Wyoming	4	32	2.5	36.5
10:00 PM	Washington State	36	Boise State	43	79	-7	65
10:15 PM	Arizona	10	Utah	34	44	-13	51.5
11:00 PM	Oregon	42	UCLA	0	42	24.5	55.5

It eliminated 4 bets.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 09-24-24, 08:45 AM

NFL Picks are Ready... so is college decided to just post on the one thread. The thread is my 150 day trial thread. It will have all my picks until March 1st.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**redrum448** · 09-25-24, 01:05 PM

May I ask how do you come up with which games to bet and why?

For instance it seems Ga State winning by 13 is a better bet than taking the over and covering by only 7?

Or how about UMASS getting +17 vs Miami(Oh) but you have them winning outright? yet you dont recommend a bet?

please explain, thanks!!!

**usma1992** · 09-25-24, 02:43 PM

The numbers are just my first take on matchups. Then I use historical filters to rule games out. This has proven to be good. Last weekend, it ruled out the USC games and several others.

Don't just look at the numbers. The matchups and algorithms behind the scenes tell you which ones to bet. I know it gets confusing. However, early in the season... I definitely have to look beyond the numbers.

I did the same thing with college basketball. I don't have to publish the numbers but some people want them published.

Dave
Mack the Teach

**usma1992** · 10-09-24, 06:39 PM

All my picks are on Players Talk thread... I'm running a 150 trial ...

Right now... sitting at 60% with college and NFL combined. Had one rough NFL weekend. College I haven't had a losing weekend since I start betting on Week 4.

37-25 so far.

Dave
Mack the Teach