Dapper Dan Picks - 24/25 Season Long Thread

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 3-2 (+0.12 units)
Season YTD: (91-80) -0.59 units

No Writeups for Todays Games but we got 3 - back on Monday with more possibly.

Bowl Adds:
SMU +9 (-110) 1.5x
Clemson/Texas Over 50 (-111)
Ohio State -6.5 (-119)

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 6-3 (+1.47 units)
Season YTD: (94-81) +0.76 units

Should have another play for Friday night and going to start digging into Saturday's games ... .This is what we got so far - LOVE ARKANSAS!

Bowl Adds:
Pitt/Toledo Under 50.5 (-107)
Rutgers +7 (-105)
Rutgers/Kansas State Over 50 (-109)
Gtech/Vanderbilt Over 51 (-111)
Arkansas (-115) 1.5x

Pitt/Toledo Under 50.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Probably the only under for the bowl season - lots of reasons to like this one as I don’t expect Toledo to put up many points against this Power 5 team when they put up 14 against Akron in the last week and 7 in the week before against Ohio. The SOS indicator is huge - with Pitt overmatching Toledo by a differential of 71 ranks. This game lights up red on the spreadsheets - with both defenses having strong advantages in PFF, FEI, and PPD/YPP. In PFF, both offenses struggle protecting their QB (hence starter Holstein may not even play because he’s been injured so many times and if he is playing- he will be limited) -ranking 121st and 109th in pass blocking. Applying pressure is the strength of these two teams, with Pitt ranking 45th and Toledo 17th *with a much easier schedule. Across all positions in PFF, the defense has a strong advantage with Toledo outranking by an average of 90 ranks (SOS not factored in) and Pitt outranking Toledo’s offense by an average of 50 ranks. Both teams are in the top 30 of tackling. In FEI both defenses outrank every offensive positional category and by an average of 40 ranks for both teams. Toledo, partly due to their soft schedule rank in the Top 15 of plays over 10+ yards, 7+ and 4+ allowed, and their offense is ranked 103rd in plays over 10+ yards and 98th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards - so don’t expect big plays from either team and this should stay comfortably under the total.

Rutgers +7 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Rutgers/Kansas State Over 50 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
It was tough to decide to take the total or the side but I ended up with both. Rutgers offense has been clicking at the end of the season, especially the last 4 games where they averaged 32 ppg - Athan Kaliakmanis is finally living up to all the hype he had at Minnesota before transferring to Rutgers. Their defense has been reeling though, especially against the run where they rank 88th in PFF and is the speciality of this Kansas State team that ranks 39th in rushing and 38th in run blocking. Rutgers also had their defensive coordinator leave for the bowl game but I think their offense keeps this one close as the Kansas State defense hasn’t been all that good themselves - ranking 76th overall in PFF and 91st in coverage. We also have strong advantages in FEI for both offenses with Rutgers having an average differential of 10 ranks across all categories, and Kansas State with a 26 rank differential. This should be a high scoring shootout, and I think a one-possession close game so we take the over and the points.

Gtech/Vanderbilt Over 51 (-111)
Love this over as both teams have some stud QBs who are playing with lots of opt outs on the defensive side. They've both been great against tough competition and in the face of pressure as both of them can buy time for their receivers or run the ball themselves to move the chains when needed. They are both highly competitive and will be the best QB matchup in the bowls - enough said.

Arkansas (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units
Granted both teams have lost a lot to the transfer portal, but I’ll take the SEC team with the better coaching, I love Petrino and Pittman and couldn’t even tell you much about Joey McGuire as he really doesn’t have a resume outside of Texas Tech. They also lost their two defensive coordinators. It’s tough to predict with some of these players “possibly” playing - but it looks like Razorbacks will be without players that accounted for 50% of their snaps - but at least they will have their starting QB Taylen Green back. If you think that’s bad, Texas Tech will be with only 27% of their offensive snaps returning, as their starting QB Behran Morton will also be gone. Arkansas’s biggest weakness on offense was Havoc allowed - where they ranked 130th, but Texas Tech defense couldn’t create Havoc in the backfield if they wanted to- ranking 118th - especially against an SEC team. It goes without being said that Arkansas had a significantly tougher schedule in the SEC compared to the BIG 12 - and I think they win this one easily so we bet for 1.5 units - even though my 1.5x bets have been rough this bowl season.

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 8-4 (+2.4 units)
Season YTD: (96-82) +1.69 units

Two more for today. A few more tomorrow in the oven - will post then

Bowl Adds:
Oklahoma ML (-135)
TexasAM/USC over 51.5 (-115)

Oklahoma ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
I’m not buying the opt-out transfer portal unmotivated theories - this is a Brent Venables team with a HUGE SOS mismatch. So what Navy beat Army, their schedule is garbage too - even worse then Navy’s. Oklahoma’s 2nd stringers will be bigger, faster, and stronger against this AAC team. Another beautiful statistic to look at for this game (and a testament to Venables) - Navy’s Havoc allowed and Oklahoma’s defense Havoc created. Navy with that $&*t of a schedule - still ranked 112th in Havoc allowed in the league. Oklahoma defense, with arguably one of the hardest schedules in the league, ranked 23rd in Havoc created. I’ll bite on the 7 point line move - and you gotta figure we have the zebra’s on our side if there’s that much money on Navy moving this line.

TexasAM/USC over 51.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Can we just bet every over in every bowl game? Ha - seems like even the teams with the strengths on defense get a couple pick 6’s every game to send every game over like our Toledo/Pitt under yesterday. We’re in a new era with the added “time-outs” and transfer portal and new OT - the bookies seem slow to adjust to these changes and every game is going over by 10+ points, this one should to as both teams are sporting new QBs who took over the reigns halfway through the season and showed lots of potential. Maiva put up 35 against Notre Dame’s defense, why wouldnt they against this Texas AM with a few of their best line man out? Marcel Reed completed 61% of his passes for 8 yards per pass and ran for another 500 on the ground. The weakness of this TexasAM defense is their coverage that ranks 74th in the league and they rank 113th in tacking. Their strengths are sitting out of this game. Both teams prefer to throw the ball - and are averaging 70+ snaps a game so we hope this one sails over like the rest.

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan picks
Bowls: 11-5 (+4.55 units)
Season YTD: (99-83) +3.84 units

Bowl Adds:
Boston College +4.5 (-120)
Iowa St/Miami over 55.5 (-110)
ECU/NC State under 58.5 (-110)
BYU +4.5 (-110)

Just one write up today as I’ve been slammed at work and busy with my daughter when I’m not working but dug into all of these and like them all. I got some of these numbers earlier in week so sorry if it's better than what’s available now. Had to justify the one under with a write up but will be scary like all unders that lose in this day and age.

ECU/NC State under 58.5 (-110)
These cross town rivals - less than 100 miles apart tend to be low scoring, these two teams last faced off in 2022 and 2019 and both went under. The biggest thing that stood out in this matchup was the HAVOC rate as both defenses have almost triple digit differentials in favor of the defense. ECU ranks 115th in Havoc allowed on offense and NC State ranks 104th. On defense, ECU ranks 22nd in havoc created and NC State ranks 19th. Both teams struggle in the red zone, with ECU ranking #118th in RZ scoring % and NC State ranking 44th but the ECU defense is tough in the red zone scoring % ranking 14th. Both teams turn the ball over a lot so as long as that doesn’t happen for points then I think the defenses should do enough in this game to stay under.

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan picks
Bowls: 14-6 (+6.35 units)
Season YTD: (102-84) +5.64 units

We are two missed two point conversions away from 16-4 for the bowl games, but we’ll take the 14-6. Legoooooooooo

Bowl Adds:
Missouri ML (-135)
Iowa’s offense has sat out most of the season, the two guys who accounted for1537 yards on the ground and 1017 yards in the air - will be actually physically sitting out this time as I’m sure the load of carrying an entire offense is exhausting. To make things worse, their starting center who has started all 12 games this year, and 38 over the past 3 seasons, a real team leader - will be out too. Their best cover corner, Jemari Harris, and Safety Koen Entringer will also be out. Granted Missouri has a few opt outs but not nearly as much as Iowa’s contributors. Also some notable statistics, even with that run game- Iowa has struggled in Havoc rate allowed - ranking 92nd in the country. Missouri’s defense has excelled in creating Havoc in the backfield - ranking 14th in the nation. In FEI, both defenses show an advantage but Missouri’s by an average of 44 ranks across all categories, where Iowa’s only outranks by a differential of 12 ranks. The biggest of these mismatches showed in first down drive rate and busted drive rate, where Iowa ranks 127th and 118th - and Missouri’s defense ranks 12th and 6th so it’s safe to say Iowa should have plenty of 3 and outs. It’s probably safe to take Missouri 1st half too, but I typically don’t like only 1st half bets. Missouri for the win!

[redrum448]

Bama under looking good? UM has top 2 RBs out and most its o-line. Bama has its top 4? WR out?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bama under looking good? UM has top 2 RBs out and most its o-line. Bama has its top 4? WR out?

Nice update. I think MICH is going to have a lot of problems in this game.

[Smutbucket]

Nahh not touching the Bama game or the Washington game today unfortunately....too many unknowns - and AN UNDER! PFFFFFFT

Dapper Dan picks
Bowls: 15-6 (+7.35 units)
Season YTD: (103-84) (55%) +6.64 units

No write-ups sorry - lets keep this heater alive. Good luck all

Bowl Adds:
South Carolina -10 (-105)
Baylor TT Over 31.5 (-105)
Baylor/LSU Over 59 (-118)
Baylor ML (-159)
Penn State -10.5 (-115)
Arizona State +13 (-110)
Oregon +2.5 (-105)
Notre Dame +1.5 (-110)

[redrum448]

It's the men that take the unders .... just saying

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Bowls: 18-10 (+5.61 units)
Season YTD: (106-88) +4.9 units

Still got Notre Dame pending, going to go ahead and add a unit to it on ML. And these two for tonight and tomorrow - and we’ll see what the finals holds. So annoyed about Ohio State as I had them game 1 when they lost and then switched to Oregon game 2 of course to get blown out - the over was the obvious side - likewise with Baylor and you gotta be fricking kidding me the Baylor TT didn’t hit

Bowl Adds: Add 1 unit to ND ML
Notre Dame +1.5 (-110)
Notre Dame ML (-115)
Duke/Miss Under 51.5 (-108)
Minnesota -8.5 (-110) 1.5x

Notre Dame +1.5 (-110) and ML (-115) Risking 1.10 units to win 1 units and Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units so 2 units altogether
Our boy Riley Leonard, made a lot of money off him at Duke and now he’s taking on the UGA defense that is definitely subpar compared to its numbers in years past - In PFF UGA defense ranks 63rd in coverage and 39th in the Pass Rush. In defensive passing efficiency - they rank 34th. Notre Dame is #1 in defensive passing efficiency, #3 in PFF in coverage, 18th in the pass rush and 11th overall. We also have a strong advantage in special teams in PFF as Georgia ranks 54th and Notre Dame ranks 3rd. In FEI, on both sides of the ball, Notre Dame has a strong advantage, by an average of 30 ranks on offense and an average of 16 ranks on defense. We also have some nice advantages in plays over 7+ and 10+ yards allowed on both sides of the ball as Notre Dame ranks 17th in plays over 7+ plays and 2nd in plays over 10+ plays on offense. UGA defense hasn’t been their usual self ranking 47th in plays over 7+ yards and 37th in plays over 10+ yards. On defense Notre Dame is in the Top 10 of every category in plays over 4+, 7+ and 10+ allowed. UGA offense has also struggled ranking 34th in plays over 7+ yards and 63rd in plays over 10+ yards. In all the standard statistics, ND defense is Top 10 in practically every category where UGA is in the Top 30-40 range, including Red Zone Scoring % where they rank 53rd and 78th on 4th downs. ND is also much more careful with the ball ranking #3 in TO margin per game where UGA ranks #60. Granted for all these stats - ND had a much easier schedule but my “eye test” and “gut feeling” loves Notre Dame.

Duke/Miss Under 51.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Duke will be starting backup Henry Belin IV as Murphy has transferred away - their offense was never their strength anyways, especially their run game which ranks 116th in PFF and 91st in run blocking. A huge mismatch on paper as this Ole Miss run defense ranks #1 in run defense. They rank 4th in PFF, 4th in tackling, 4th in the pass rush - an all around good defense considering the teams they have played. Duke’s defense also has some strengths that mismatch well against Ole Miss - Manny Diaz loves to bring pressure and has done well this season ranking 24th in the pass rush, a place where Ole Miss offense has struggled ranking 85th in pass blocking and they might be without a few offensive lineman - as well as their leading receiver and leading backs. In FEI, Ole Miss is Top 10 in almost every category - leaving an 87 point average differential between their offense and Duke’s bottom tier offense - without their starting QB, this could get ugly. Also take Duke TT under 17 if you can find it - I got it with my local but unfortunately on Betstamp it’s listed at 16.5 which should probably hit too but I’m not going to track “officially” as I use that app to track.

Minnesota -8.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1 units
We have lots of situational trends that favor this pick as well as the fact that almost all of Vtech is opting out of this game. Their starting QB Drones is hurt, and their backup Schlee so they maybe playing with a 3rd stringer, as well as losing 24 players to the portal - at least 6 starters, a few that are not even listed as opt outs - like starting RB Tuten who accounted for 1159 yards - has not been seen at practice, not on injury report either. PJ Fleck on the other side has proven to know how to prepare his teams for bowl games as he’s 5-0 and 4-1 ATS. On the season they have been undervalued going 9-2-1 ATS and should blow out Vtech despite many dogs covering big spreads thus far this bowl season (excluding the playoffs) Good luck all

[Smutbucket]

It's the men that take the unders .... just saying

lol nice hit - I was a man once who took a lot of unders and fell violently ill after so many defenses and special teams sent games over the total