In addition to you guys, I am a big advocate of reverse line movement. It has the right concept towards making a profit in sports betting (follow the money, not the people) however I have discovered that you aren’t going to make a lot of money unless you have the right strategy of reverse line movement.
Now, what exactly is the “right strategy”? First off, I’ve had trouble betting on underdogs under the reverse line movement strategy. Looking at today’s card, somewhere between 75-80% of all games favor the public betting on the favorite, thus producing a lot more plays towards underdogs as to favorites. The myth “the public always takes the favorite” might not be a myth after all. I have been tracking this for a while, and despite the RLM, it his hitting at roughly a .500 clip and really isn’t getting you anywhere in terms of making a profit in sports betting.
With that said, I have two questions for you...
1.Have you been keeping track of your #'s (closing #, percentages, just how much movement, W's and L's, etc.)?
I have got a lot of the data on my CPU and collect information from several different lines websites, but I am missing quite a bit of data thanks to being away from the house on Saturday’s (Michigan football season ticket holder). And well, just a general lack of laziness / difficultly in acquiring accurate percentages for no cost. I generally look at Covers because everyone who is used in their percentages is basically the definition of a “public bettor” and Sports Insights because they have fairly accurate percentages after
2. How has it fared under this filter / scenario?
- 50% or less is on the favorite (even filter it to 40% if you have to, probably hits at a higher percentage)
- Favorite was of 17 points or more (closing number, could care less if it opens at -3 and shoots up 14 points)
- Line moving (of course) towards the favorite
Something tells me that 17 (3 possessions) is the critical number when the "public bettor" (everyone who bets less than $300 to 500 on any given game) starts betting because that's "too many points" rather then betting on teams they like in certain spots / wrong favorite bets. I've been tracking RLM for a while and have discovered that favorites of 17 or greater with RLM hit at a relatively high % opposed to betting everything and anything that is RLM.
With that said, here are a few games today that fall under this filter...
Penn State (-17.5) vs. Minnesota (opened at -15, 44% on the Nittany Lions)
Florida (-24.5) vs. Arkansas (opened at -24, ONLY 23% ON THE GATORS!!!)
TCU (-22.5) vs. Colorado State (opened at -19.5, 42% on the Horned Frogs)
It doesn't produce a ton of plays and probably works better for a sport like college basketball where you have 7 times the amount of plays and have about 1-5 games a day that you can bet on. Just trying to figure out where the “that’s too many points” crosses with the wrong favorite / “I like ___ in this spot” crowd. It’s somewhere between 8.5 (2 possessions) and 17 (3 possessions).
Now, what exactly is the “right strategy”? First off, I’ve had trouble betting on underdogs under the reverse line movement strategy. Looking at today’s card, somewhere between 75-80% of all games favor the public betting on the favorite, thus producing a lot more plays towards underdogs as to favorites. The myth “the public always takes the favorite” might not be a myth after all. I have been tracking this for a while, and despite the RLM, it his hitting at roughly a .500 clip and really isn’t getting you anywhere in terms of making a profit in sports betting.
With that said, I have two questions for you...
1.Have you been keeping track of your #'s (closing #, percentages, just how much movement, W's and L's, etc.)?
I have got a lot of the data on my CPU and collect information from several different lines websites, but I am missing quite a bit of data thanks to being away from the house on Saturday’s (Michigan football season ticket holder). And well, just a general lack of laziness / difficultly in acquiring accurate percentages for no cost. I generally look at Covers because everyone who is used in their percentages is basically the definition of a “public bettor” and Sports Insights because they have fairly accurate percentages after
2. How has it fared under this filter / scenario?
- 50% or less is on the favorite (even filter it to 40% if you have to, probably hits at a higher percentage)
- Favorite was of 17 points or more (closing number, could care less if it opens at -3 and shoots up 14 points)
- Line moving (of course) towards the favorite
Something tells me that 17 (3 possessions) is the critical number when the "public bettor" (everyone who bets less than $300 to 500 on any given game) starts betting because that's "too many points" rather then betting on teams they like in certain spots / wrong favorite bets. I've been tracking RLM for a while and have discovered that favorites of 17 or greater with RLM hit at a relatively high % opposed to betting everything and anything that is RLM.
With that said, here are a few games today that fall under this filter...
Penn State (-17.5) vs. Minnesota (opened at -15, 44% on the Nittany Lions)
Florida (-24.5) vs. Arkansas (opened at -24, ONLY 23% ON THE GATORS!!!)
TCU (-22.5) vs. Colorado State (opened at -19.5, 42% on the Horned Frogs)
It doesn't produce a ton of plays and probably works better for a sport like college basketball where you have 7 times the amount of plays and have about 1-5 games a day that you can bet on. Just trying to figure out where the “that’s too many points” crosses with the wrong favorite / “I like ___ in this spot” crowd. It’s somewhere between 8.5 (2 possessions) and 17 (3 possessions).