College Football Bowl Gams and Sagarin

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  • Formulawiz
    Restricted User
    • 01-12-09
    • 1589

    #1
    College Football Bowl Gams and Sagarin
    I am not sure who came up with this system for Bowl games only, but I have been using it for the past 3 years with amazing success.

    Here are the win/loss records for the past 3 years.
    2008-2009: 12-5
    2007-2008: 11-1
    2006-2007: 7-1

    Let me explain how it works.

    Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating (RANK Column) is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Put simply, scroll through every team in the Top 60 and fade every team that has a 60+ SOS rating.

    One adjustment, if two teams are playing who have a SOS of 60+ in the top 60, you fade the team who has the worst SOS ranking (look at NEV as an ex.

    Here are this years bowl game plays no matter what the lines are and once the rank and SOS are established, they stay as they are even if they change as the bowl games progress.

    TCU (4, 84 SOS) over Boise State (8, 98 SOS)
    Florida (2, 27 SOS) over Cincinnati (6, 63 SOS)
    LSU (10, 16 SOS) over Penn State (20, 83 SOS)
    Oregon State (15, 21 SOS) over BYU (29, 77 SOS)
    California (33, 17 SOS) over Utah (35, 73 SOS)
    Miami-FL (11, 18) over Wisconsin (36, 68 SOS)
    Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS)
    Air Force (55, 92 SOS) over Houston (46, 97 SOS)
    Arkansas (16, 13 SOS) over East Carolina (50, 61 SOS)
    South Florida (51, 62 SOS) over Northern Illinois (87, 121 SOS)
    Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS)
    Wyoming (99, 57 SOS) over Fresno State (57, 74 SOS)
    Missouri (47, 50 SOS) over Navy (54, 74 SOS)
    Nevada (56, 82 SOS) over SMU (88, 90 SOS)

    Good Luck
  • peterpan19
    Restricted User
    • 11-02-08
    • 3377

    #2
    really good system... will keep track of it...
    thank you
    GL
    Comment
    • bombCanada
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 08-19-09
      • 965

      #3
      very interesting. I infer from the list above that a play is created even if only one of the two teams is in the top 60?
      Comment
      • bombCanada
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 08-19-09
        • 965

        #4
        Found the picks organized elsewhere on the World Wide Wait (comments belong to the original poster):

        Dec. 19
        New Mexico Bowl - Wyoming +10.5
        St Petes Bowl - Central FL +2.5

        Dec. 22
        Las Vegas Bowl - Oregon St -1.5 (my line is going up already)

        Dec. 23
        Poinsettia Bowl - California -3

        Dec. 24
        Hawaii Bowl - Nevada -14

        Dec. 29
        Champs Sports Bowl - Miami FL -2 (my line going up to -3 already)

        Dec. 31
        Texas Bowl - Missouri Armed Forces Bowl - Air Force +5

        Jan. 1
        Capital One Bowl - LSU +2.5
        Sugar Bowl - Florida -10

        Jan. 2
        International Bowl - South Florida -6
        Liberty Bowl - Arkansas -7.5

        Jan. 4
        Fiesta Bowl - TCU -7

        Jan. 6
        GMAC Bowl - Troy +4
        Comment
        • THE PROFIT
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-27-09
          • 17701

          #5
          Firm beleiver in this system but all of them can't win. I don't feel good about Troy. LeFevour & C.Mich is teh best play
          Comment
          • timbo46
            SBR Sharp
            • 11-30-09
            • 296

            #6
            A great edge. Sagarin is top-notch.
            Comment
            • BigdaddyQH
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-13-09
              • 19530

              #7
              I think this is a very valuable tool in your overall selection process. We will be using a modified version of this. Excellent post.
              Comment
              • JMUplayer
                SBR MVP
                • 08-27-09
                • 2765

                #8
                Doesn't this just favor the big conferences over the WAC/Mountain West/Conference USA/ MAC?
                Comment
                • THE PROFIT
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-27-09
                  • 17701

                  #9
                  Originally posted by JMUplayer
                  Doesn't this just favor the big conferences over the WAC/Mountain West/Conference USA/ MAC?
                  alot of these shit teams play each other, & the public think ones are better than the other because of record. This helps see who is really stronger
                  Comment
                  • Formulawiz
                    Restricted User
                    • 01-12-09
                    • 1589

                    #10
                    As I pointed out earlier I have used this system over the past 3 years and can confirm the win/loss records are correct. I myself did not play all the games, only those that agreed with my handicapping tools.
                    Comment
                    • PeePee
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 10-08-09
                      • 619

                      #11
                      Beware of Rutgers game as the Sagarin rating has changed and Rutger is the play. Apparently due to the Navy/Army game.
                      FYI for those who interested.
                      Comment
                      • GGPLAYER
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-26-09
                        • 2981

                        #12
                        Originally posted by PeePee
                        Beware of Rutgers game as the Sagarin rating has changed and Rutger is the play. Apparently due to the Navy/Army game.
                        FYI for those who interested.

                        You also posted in another thread that C. Mich is now the play NOT Troy.

                        FormulaWiz are you aware of these changes?
                        Comment
                        • Formulawiz
                          Restricted User
                          • 01-12-09
                          • 1589

                          #13
                          Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                          You also posted in another thread that C. Mich is now the play NOT Troy.

                          FormulaWiz are you aware of these changes?
                          Thanks I just checked and you are correct. RUT and CMICH are plays now.
                          Comment
                          • porterkid69
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 03-17-08
                            • 228

                            #14
                            Tim Brown is ? for Rutgers, might hurt Rutgers passing game.
                            Comment
                            • GGPLAYER
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-26-09
                              • 2981

                              #15
                              I also read that Florida and S. Florida are NO longer plays.

                              Also add Ore over Ohio St.
                              Comment
                              • snapstick
                                Restricted User
                                • 08-18-09
                                • 3861

                                #16
                                Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                I also read that Florida and S. Florida are NO longer plays.

                                Also add Ore over Ohio St.
                                Sounds like you read that on my thread..lol..gl

                                At least give the credit to the person who took the time to do the research.
                                Comment
                                • Betting Guru
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-24-09
                                  • 648

                                  #17
                                  What were the plays the last 3 years?

                                  I am curious to know, what the plays were the past 3 years?

                                  If you could put that on here, that would be great. Thanks
                                  Comment
                                  • SOSANA
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 11-15-11
                                    • 58

                                    #18
                                    ummmmm....................what ever happend with this system? no one posted plays or results????
                                    Comment
                                    • Rambo
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 09-21-11
                                      • 206

                                      #19
                                      Anyone?
                                      Comment
                                      • bhoward13
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 10-24-08
                                        • 50

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Rambo
                                        Anyone?
                                        looks like it went 3-7.
                                        Comment
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