I am not sure who came up with this system for Bowl games only, but I have been using it for the past 3 years with amazing success.
Here are the win/loss records for the past 3 years.
2008-2009: 12-5
2007-2008: 11-1
2006-2007: 7-1
Let me explain how it works.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating (RANK Column) is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Put simply, scroll through every team in the Top 60 and fade every team that has a 60+ SOS rating.
One adjustment, if two teams are playing who have a SOS of 60+ in the top 60, you fade the team who has the worst SOS ranking (look at NEV as an ex
.
Here are this years bowl game plays no matter what the lines are and once the rank and SOS are established, they stay as they are even if they change as the bowl games progress.
TCU (4, 84 SOS) over Boise State (8, 98 SOS)
Florida (2, 27 SOS) over Cincinnati (6, 63 SOS)
LSU (10, 16 SOS) over Penn State (20, 83 SOS)
Oregon State (15, 21 SOS) over BYU (29, 77 SOS)
California (33, 17 SOS) over Utah (35, 73 SOS)
Miami-FL (11, 18) over Wisconsin (36, 68 SOS)
Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS)
Air Force (55, 92 SOS) over Houston (46, 97 SOS)
Arkansas (16, 13 SOS) over East Carolina (50, 61 SOS)
South Florida (51, 62 SOS) over Northern Illinois (87, 121 SOS)
Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS)
Wyoming (99, 57 SOS) over Fresno State (57, 74 SOS)
Missouri (47, 50 SOS) over Navy (54, 74 SOS)
Nevada (56, 82 SOS) over SMU (88, 90 SOS)
Good Luck
Here are the win/loss records for the past 3 years.
2008-2009: 12-5
2007-2008: 11-1
2006-2007: 7-1
Let me explain how it works.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating (RANK Column) is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Put simply, scroll through every team in the Top 60 and fade every team that has a 60+ SOS rating.
One adjustment, if two teams are playing who have a SOS of 60+ in the top 60, you fade the team who has the worst SOS ranking (look at NEV as an ex

Here are this years bowl game plays no matter what the lines are and once the rank and SOS are established, they stay as they are even if they change as the bowl games progress.
TCU (4, 84 SOS) over Boise State (8, 98 SOS)
Florida (2, 27 SOS) over Cincinnati (6, 63 SOS)
LSU (10, 16 SOS) over Penn State (20, 83 SOS)
Oregon State (15, 21 SOS) over BYU (29, 77 SOS)
California (33, 17 SOS) over Utah (35, 73 SOS)
Miami-FL (11, 18) over Wisconsin (36, 68 SOS)
Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS)
Air Force (55, 92 SOS) over Houston (46, 97 SOS)
Arkansas (16, 13 SOS) over East Carolina (50, 61 SOS)
South Florida (51, 62 SOS) over Northern Illinois (87, 121 SOS)
Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS)
Wyoming (99, 57 SOS) over Fresno State (57, 74 SOS)
Missouri (47, 50 SOS) over Navy (54, 74 SOS)
Nevada (56, 82 SOS) over SMU (88, 90 SOS)
Good Luck