Navy -20.5 vs Terrible Temple Owls

[r2d2]

OK, someone talk me out of it. Why won't Navy win this game by 35??? That is the question I challenge you to answer.

i don' think navy is as good this year as they were last, but i am pretty tempted to lay the 3 td's here.

Last year, Opponents outscored the lowly Owls by a combined total of 503 to 131.

Temple finished the year with an absolutely terrible 1-11 record.

Navy steam rolled the owls last year 42-6 in the last game of the season.

temple was shut out 3 times last year.

in short, temple just plain sucks. They should stick to the chess club and debate. They have no business being a D-1 football program.

Interested to hear if anyone else has an opinion on this. Thanks guys.

[icemantbi]

I'm also tempted to back navy in this game. Temple were dreadful last year, especially on defence. The only thing I question is how good navy's offence is going to be this year. That's the only question mark for me. Having said that, I don't think Navy will have too much of a hard time scoring against what appears to be another crappy defensive team in Temple.

[stump]

i must be crazy but i have a small play on temple. Navy has lots to fill on defense, and Temple will be slightly improved, I'm hoping early in the year they don't quit and stay within 21 pts. line still available at Bet Jamaica

[nevadaside]

bothers me cause "it is too tempting". The biggest thing is a new season & what effect that has on a known terrible team is actually very unknown. I lean NAVY to cover but will proceed "very lightly" if I do....most likely a pass cause "it's too tempting".

A whole season ahead still....GL r2d2

[t2wentyfou4r]

I see Navy as an avg D1 school. Navy would get killed playing any top 25 teams right now. The problem here is Temple is very very bad college team. I think a good high school team could bet Temple. There on the verge of leaving D1 football. Navy laying -21, hmmmm.... I would still take Navy. Temple will give up by the 2 quarter. This play is like you picking up a fat girl with a pretty face.

[nevadaside]

This play is like you picking up a fat girl with a pretty face.

Yeah, but in a club.......or on a street corner?

[t2wentyfou4r]

In the club after a couple of vodka redbulls.

[crackerjack]

I like Navy in this one, but a garbage TD in the fourth quarter could spoil it.

[icemantbi]

bothers me cause "it is too tempting". The biggest thing is a new season & what effect that has on a known terrible team is actually very unknown. I lean NAVY to cover but will proceed "very lightly" if I do....most likely a pass cause "it's too tempting".

A whole season ahead still....GL r2d2

I'm with you on this one. Was considering betting a unit on Navy, but think I will pass. Alot better plays coming up tomorrow. I'll keep an eye on this game though, see how Navy plays.

[BuddyBear]

I am on Temple myself +21. True Temple is not good by any stretch but being in the MAC this year should provide them with a better opportunity to be successful. When you look at their numbers they are real bad but they tend to fair much better against non-BCS competition..NAVY falls into that category. They have some playmakers on offense and did make some progress last year believe it or not despite only averaging 10.9 ppg (up almost a full 2 pts from '05). They have a veteran unit despite only having 2 scholarship seniors who start.

In addition, Temple features a 4-3 defense this year which is a change from their more traditional 3-4 defense they have featured in years past. I expect this will help them get penetration on their d-line more this year which will help them against the run. But the biggest reason why I selected Temple is more a play against NAVY than anything else. They have a prolific ground offense and will undoubtedly lead the nation in rushing yards but two things (1) they return a total of 3 defensive starters so I expect Temple to put up some points on this inexperienced unit. (2) Being a rushing team that Navy is, this drains the clock even if they do score.

One intangible many are not discussing is that this game is going to have a big crowd. In fact, rumor is we may see a sellout at Lincoln Financial Field....true, about 30,000 will be rooting NAVY but I think that only adds to the excitement of this game between NAVY and Temple. I see this game being closer than most think.

I think Al Golden is finally starting to get his personal in and I have NAVY pegged as a team this year is going to struggle with the inexperienced defense.

I could be wrong and not surprisingly, Temple may get blown out but this is the way I've handicapped.

Good luck fellows....

[EBone]

I like Temple as well. I'd really rather have the hook though if I can get it (+21.5 instead of +21).




E

[durito]

I'm not betting this game, the line is too high to take navy.

But, navy is 70-35 ATS in road games since 1985. 26-7 recently. I don't think I'd go against that without a very strong play.

[pokernut9999]

Taking Temple +21 is akin to fools that took Miss. St. last night. Only team worse than Temple is Buffalo. Last year held 2 teams under 41 pts. Year before 1 team under 34.
Last 2 years 36 and 21 pt losses to Navy

[BuddyBear]

Taking Temple +21 is akin to fools that took Miss. St. last night. Only team worse than Temple is Buffalo. Last year held 2 teams under 41 pts. Year before 1 team under 34.
Last 2 years 36 and 21 pt losses to Navy

There are those who handicap games and then there are those who are handicapped

[nevadaside]

to you TEMPLE backers.....worried me cause stump was on it, so I just went for blood w/NAVY 1stH...luckily a success.

Glad you cashed in too BB.

[pokernut9999]

There are those who handicap games and then there are those who are handicapped

I went 2-1 tonight so I quess it is cool to be handicapped.

[dante1]

Taking Temple +21 is akin to fools that took Miss. St. last night. Only team worse than Temple is Buffalo. Last year held 2 teams under 41 pts. Year before 1 team under 34.
Last 2 years 36 and 21 pt losses to Navy

Pokernut

I mean you no disrespect but I find it hard to believe that
you are 47 and betting games since 16. That means you would have had to witness thousands of games. If you saw thousands of games you in no way would call anybody a fool about any particular game because you would know that anything can happen If you didn't learn that in 31 years of gambling either you're a slow learner or you are really only in your early or mid 20's. I don't think you're slow because you handle yourself well in conversations. I think you're young.

[pokernut9999]

The fools that took Miss. St. lost i believe?

[pags11]

buddy,

good stuff...

pokernut seems like a good dude and we've all done our share of shit talking around here...I like having you around bud, but remember that buddy knows his shit...

GL guys...

[dante1]

The fools that took Miss. St. lost i believe?

Hmmm You did it again. Why do you want to annoy people?
You'll lose friends and eventually everybody will gang up on you. That's no fun. You're young.

[pokernut9999]

I watch people all the time on this forum push there crazy dogs. When they lose you hear "cant cap 6 int's". When they win Tey are a genius. Read Art Schilter (spelling oops book) How he would puke his brains out after betting and losing 1000's on the worst teams because the points looked good. Keep betting these teams and at end of year let me know how you did.


One day maybe you will learn what a trend is.

[pokernut9999]

And I was born March 2, 1960 do the math.

[pags11]

pokernut,

I understand your point about staying away from betting bad teams...point well taken...you seem to have been around the block a bit...I think it's best to just get settled in here and chill for a short time...you look like a guy that can help us out on Saturdays...GL this weekend...

[dante1]

I watch people all the time on this forum push there crazy dogs. When they lose you hear "cant cap 6 int's". When they win Tey are a genius. Read Art Schilter (spelling oops book) How he would puke his brains out after betting and losing 1000's on the worst teams because the points looked good. Keep betting these teams and at end of year let me know how you did.


One day maybe you will learn what a trend is.

How did the trend do in the Temple game last night?

I will look forward to yourr selections on Saturdays
using your trend theory. Prove to me and everybody else
how great it is and we all make money. That is why
we are here my friend. Share info and help everybody win,
not call people fools.


If you have a system that wins and people don't agree you
shouldn't get mad you should simply prove it with selections.
Everybody wins and you end up looking good.

Right??

[pokernut9999]

I never said there was a trend on that game did I? dont think so. There was a trend on Indy game tonight, only a 3 year trend so I did not bother you with it. See if yoy know what it was. Oh by the way it worked again.

[dante1]

I never said there was a trend on that game did I? dont think so. There was a trend on Indy game tonight, only a 3 year trend so I did not bother you with it. See if yoy know what it was. Oh by the way it worked again.

This is the 2nd time you claimed a trend after the game.
Hmmm, We would like you to tell us the trend before the
game and do it with a large number of games. Play 40 or
50 trend games over a 8 or 10 week period and predict the
team that will cover. If you hit around 55% then we will
have to agree with you that trends are an excellent way
to cap.

But, before the game my friend. Not after.

[OrionSky]

Read Art Schilter (spelling oops book) How he would puke his brains out after betting and losing 1000's on the worst teams because the points looked good.

Hey Poker, do you know the exact name of that book? I'd like to check it out.

[BuddyBear]

PN: I mean no disrespect and apologize if it came off that way. I was trying my best to be humorous by using a play on words. I wanted to highlight that sometimes things are not always what they seem to be no matter how obvious or clear they may appear.

You are indeed right to say that Temple is a bad team. But clearly even the most cursory off-season review of the two teams would show that Temple is improved and that Navy is a team probably going down a bit this year.

The initial purpose and question in this thread asked someone to make a case as to why one should not bet Navy. I did my best to present logical and cogent reasons as to why Temple may hvae some value and may be the right side to this game. I acknowledge that any time Temple is playing a blowout can occur and it's not Temple doing the blowing out. Clearly this was a game Temple controlled ATS and they were the right side the whole way...not once was Navy covering the spread. There biggest lead was 14 pts all game.

I just think it is important to realize that even if you like a side a lot you have to consider the reasons why that side may not be correct and weigh those reasons against your own reasoning. That's just a fundemental of handicapping.

Best of luck the rest of the season.....

[pags11]

you're a class act buddy...

[EJandV]

Now you know what I have put up with in the baseball forum for 3 weeks,good thing you guys stick together with real sense and logic in this section I am impressed , I wrote long pieces of my sports investor experiences and relate them to reality of the here and now and never even got a good piece man or yeah I can relate man . More insults when I was wrong on picks .

[EJandV]

The fav dog result in sports is a balanced like nature thing and you win here and lose there , is real simple but made to look complicated . It is as simple as it gets in that when you are right you are right and when you are wrong you are just wrong . The teams change players and personnelso that would be the biggest factor in who wins , the coaches and players involved in the outcome . The LSU game happened to follow the trend because of one man pretty much throwing game for the big home dogs , he played terrible , if he played good , MADE SOME PLAYS , then hey its a different result maybe . when something goes the way someone wants or thinks it should go that person jumps up and says see I told you the trend or whatever because it fits into their being right which is what everyone that does this strives for , the result backs what theypredicted so they buy into the trend or whatever more , when in all reality since it is a more or less balanced result with the fav dog ats we all know anything can happen and doesifere not true we would all be very very rich from wagering on sports . ps whenthings go our way as we predicted we only look at that and not all the actual twists and turns in the game were it could have not went our way

[EJandV]

in real time > taking a road team minus 3 tdsseemsillogical meknowingdoesnt mean anything ,the Lsu affected me because at first I had Lsu then I thought alot about it being the first game and dog getting all those pts at home withhapumpedup crowd , so that affected me tonight instead of staying with the take all the pts with the home dog I did the opposite and took the favcause I wasaffected by what I did the night before going with missst and losing , I shouldhave stuck to my common sense logic and it would havesimply been a winning wager , the righthere wrong there would have been the results for those 2 games if I kept my logical thinking with these 2 scenarios of the big dog at home getting all those pts . should have been 1 - 1 . instead 0 -2 . winners ats LSU Temple . So what next that may blow my mind and influence me ? Big upsets right . That would be normal so the big upset would obviously break a trend I would think ? yes or no I am no expert . upset with an s right , there are always some big upsets each week in the limited # of weeks of action ? Someone break it down for me ?