these parlays do not make any sense to me. To me it is just throwing money away cause it is hard to win 2 games and u only win this bet if both games hit so chances are you will lose the bet but the problem i have with it is they do not pay you for the risk you are taking on. Why not just bet each game individually, you will win the same amount as the parlay would pay you and at least if you go 1-1 you push and not lose the bet. Parlays only make sense to me if you do 4 teams or higher because at least they are paying you for the risk you are taking. i usually put on 1-2 6 team parlays each weekend. $50 6 team parlay will pay you anywhere from 2500-4500 depending on what moneylines you use. I am 1-2 on 6 team parlays, i won one this past weekend which paid me 3800, i lost one and i also lost one the prior weekend which i would have won if mich st did not go for that fake field goal in halftime. I thyink this is how parlays should be used but to put a $100 parlay to win 180 jsut makes absolutely no sense cause chances are you are just throwing away your 100. To break even you have to win 1 out of every 2 team parlays but to break even on a 6 team parlay, you have to win one out of around 70 6 team parlays. i think that is the smarter move, anyone agree?
-
-
that meant to read you have to win 1 out of every 2 two team parlays vs 1 out of every 70-75 6 team parlays in order to break even, to me it is a no brainerComment -
agreed
I have been doing parlays since 06(when I first started betting) almost weekly, NCAAF only. I havn't one once until this year and and I have made more on the winnings then what I have wagered in the past 5 years. So far this season I have won 2 of them so as I see it I can go another 5 years without winning another and still be even! 
Comment -
I like sometimes to pick one game and parlay them with a few -500 thru -1000+ ml's. You really only need to hit your one -110 bet and collect a few extra dollars.Comment -
agreed niner, i think a 2 or 3 team parlay makes a lot of sense when wagering with heabvy monye line favorites acause that will bring it down closer to even money versus have much you would have to lay on a single betComment -
-
right so your paid .5 point to take that risk on, enjoy, not for meComment -
first of all hitting one out of three parlays (6-team) is meaningless.
secondly, how can hitting a two-team parlay be harder than hitting a 6-team parlay? impossible.
actually, you have things exactly backwards. your mistake is that you are blinded by the higher pay-offs of the 6-team parlays. two-team parlays are a much superior bet than 6-team parlays.
the negative expectation on a two-team parlay is 10%, while the negative expectation on a 6-team parlay is almost 36%.
Here is a list of (general) parlay odds from 2-teamers down to 8-teamers. the first column is the pay-off odds and the second column is negative expectation. as you can see, your negative expectation rises as you add more teams to your parlay.
bookies love parlays.
hope this makes things clear.
2.6 -10%
6 -12.5%
10 -32.25%
20 -34.38%
40 -35.94%
75 -40.63%
150 -41.02%Last edited by TakeIt; 09-30-10, 11:18 AM.Comment -
dude, how dumb r u? honestly? when did i say hitting a 6 team was easier than a 2 team? obviosuly it is harder but they are paying you for your risk. you get paid 2.5:1 on a 2 team parlay so u r better off jsut betting each one seperately and make 2:1 and if you split you dont lose anything. On a 6 team you get paid 40:1 and if you have 2 underdog moneylines that can move up to 100:1 so i would rather do a 6 team knowing i only need to hit once in 100 tries to break even versus a 2 team that i have to hit it once out of 2 times to break even. take ur expectation scale and shove it up ur ass cause i dont care to hear about it, facts are facts and if you would rathe do 100 2 team parlay versus a 100 on each game that you would have parlayed, that is just dumb and u deserve to loseComment -
I would say use 2-3 team parlays for heavy money favorites so you don't have to lay 5 units to win 1.Comment -
ok so you are a wise guy to. go ahead and play ur 100 parlay, after you split the games and you lose your 100 i dont want to hear how u should have played each one and pushedComment -
O dear...
The point you are missing is that you are not using the same logic across the board.
You, yourself, mentioned that you will eventiually do better betting single games vs two team parlays, and have less risk. If you are good enough to pick a high enough % of games that you are profitable on 6 teamers, then you would still likely make more money and have less risk betting on each individual game.
I'm not here to argue 2 team vs 6 team parlays... I'm advocating straight bets vs any# parlays.
Parlays are very attractive, and can give you a nice boost if you are lucky, but in the long run, they are less profitable than straight betting.
Cheers,
TheCommishComment -
Basically it comes down to this:
2 team parlay
-110 odds for each team
50% probability of each bet hitting
$10 bet
if you played this 4 times, you would on average win $26 once, and lose $30 the other 3 times. so -$4
if you played the same exact thing but just separately at $5 each, you would win $9 once, lose $.50 twice, and lose $10 once. so -$2
so yes, in your argument it doesn't make sense to parlay.
however, if you can gain a significant advantage with a correlated parlay, it makes sense.Comment -
commish, if a 6 teamer pays anywhere from 75 to 1 to 100:1, how would u make out betting each individual game rather than a parlay. lets say for an easy example you bet 100 a game, so if you win all 6 games thats 600, but if you win a 100 6 team parlay that pays 75:1 that is $7,500, a difference of 6900. Now if you win a 2 team 100 parlay, you win around 240, and if you win each game indivudally, you win $200, a difference of $40. So to sum up, a 6 team will pay you $6,900 more and a 2 team will pay you $40 more? How is a 2 team parlay attractive? Again, you want to argue and defend a 2 gteam, you go right ahead. a 2team will never be part of my strategyComment -
It is a fact that the more teams you add on to a parlay, the more negative EV your bet is.Comment -
u got guy who bet 100-200 2 team parlays, prob teh same size as their normal bet, i think that strategy is awful and will force u to chase all weekend long trying to win back the money u r losing on 2 team parlays. I bet between 300-500 a game and throw in an occasional 50 6 team parlay that will pay me 4k if it hits. doesnt affect me if i lose and its a homerun if it hits, that is how i use them and will continue to do so and my recomendation is to trash the 2 team parlay andif ur avg bet is 100 a game, think about f;in around and throwing in $20 6 teamers which can pay out up to 2k if it hits and wont hurt u when it doesntComment -
Re-read what I wrote... I was not defending two-team parlays. I was advocating straight betting vs any parlays.
If you pick games well enough to be profitable in the long run (not just a few weeks), on 6-team parlays, then you would likely be at such an incredibly high % of individual games, that it would be more profitable, and less risk to skip parlays altogether.Comment -
yes they r harder to hit but when u do u get paid and if i only have to hit it once out of 75 tries to break even, i looooooooooooove those odds. And this yre i have played 3, won 1 and lost 2, and the one i lose i almost one, would have won if mich st didnt go for fake vs notre dame. And another reason why i think they can hit easier than u think is because i put no thought into it. after im done putting my bets in, i jsut look really quick and take 6 plays that i think could hit but really no analysis, those kind of plays r usually ur best when there is no thought processComment -
use lang he bangs out parlay cards that may help a littleComment -
thebest, i have another theory and it goes, if you need someone else to make your picks for you, maybe you shouldnt be gamblingComment -
I play 2 and 3 teamers all the time. Hit way more than I do my 5 team+ parlays.Comment -
im just saying i put no thought into my 6 teamers, its a bet i forget about and if it hits im pumped. I usually do them with games i didnt bet straight up and i usually make them around 20% of a normal bet for me. This past sunday night was as good as it gets, i had teh jets money line as my 6th team in a 6 teamer, if they won it paid 4k so then i put in a 2k dolphin money line hedge so i was guaranteed to win on either sideComment -
steel, why wouldnt u bet those straight up so if u split teh games u still push and ur not all in like u rComment -
You have a Much higher chance of hitting a 2 game parlay than a 6 team parlay. If you consistantly bet 6 team parlays it will most likely deplete your bankroll before you ever hit, so when you hit you are just recouping your loss. For me I started out betting the longshot parlays and hit a couple 6-11 team parlays which made for a very nice payday, however realized the only way to consistantly win is to bet the straight wagers or parlay them with a heavy money favoriet and maybe 2 or 3 larger parlays a week just for fun. Over the past 3 weeks this is my record
Straight wagers - 11-8-1
2 Game Parlays - 6-5-0
3 Game Parlays - 0-2-0
4 Game Parlays - 0-4-0
5+ Game Parlays - 0-5-0
just my experience.Comment -
IF YOU SPLIT. Money management is the key to being successful, but is it about making money or just trying to break even? By the way if you lose one and win one, you're not even, nor is it a push. If you bet $100 on a parlay of two teams or $50 straight up on 2 teams, that money is still *all in* and being risked either way. The point is if you're confident on two plays and parlay them, you risk more but are rewarded more. That's why it's gambling. If I'm planning on laying down $100 on 2 teams why not take a shot and get 2.6 to 1 and win $260 rather than straight up and win 180?
Bottom line is.....if you work the money management correctly and you do a parlay, you won't be risking it all on a 2 team parlay anyway.
Everyone has their way of doing things and betting, you asked for replies to your post and got it, no need to tell someone who is trying to shed light on the parlay betting to shove their scale up their ass. I'm guessing by the replies and noticing your join date, you have a few things to learn. If you have an opinion and post it, don't get so pissy, we are all here for the same reason. Goodluck this weekend everyone.Comment -
ha niceComment -
i like oklahoma st and oklahomaComment -
great cause i like okl st and texas so therfore i should go 2-0 and u will now go 1-1, niceComment -
i cant believe that someone would think hitting more teams would be easier, yeah it pays more but chance of winning is far less, I will stick to 2/3 teamsComment -
who said hitting more teams is easier, get the cock out of your ear and the balls away for ur eyes so u can hear and see what the fuuck is being writtenComment
