*Rake
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Players not even asking for much, one thing they want is no tanking. Would be great to have competitive games after the all star game.Comment -
The Yankees were known to have interest in former NL MVP Freddie Freeman prior to the lockout, and it appears as though that interest is more than just simple due diligence. According to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), the Yankees “love” Freeman and “are expected to take a run at” landing the free agent once the transactions freeze is lifted.
Since it still seems unclear whether Freeman will eventually re-sign with the Braves or perhaps look to join another team, it stands to reason that the Yankees can’t be truly ruled out of a Freeman pursuit until he actually signs a contract elsewhere. Or, conversely, unless the Yankees were to make another big first base acquisition like trading for Matt Olson, or perhaps re-signing Anthony Rizzo.
What would make a Freeman pursuit so intriguing for New York, however, is how it would run counter to how the Yankees have pursued their business this offseason. Prior to the lockout, the Yankees didn’t really do much of anything, with the common thinking being that the Bronx Bombers were perhaps waiting to see the terms of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement before making any major financial commitments. Under how the luxury tax is currently calculated, for example, the Yankees already have more than a $226MM number projected for 2022. Barring a major bump in the luxury tax threshold, the Yankees would certainly surpass the tax line by adding Freeman to their payroll.
The salary forecast notwithstanding, the Yankees were at least linked to such big names as Freeman and some of the top free agent shortstops. However, the team was reportedly planning to wait out the shortstop market until after the lockout, just in case any of the remaining names (now Carlos Correa and Trevor Story) could be had on a shorter-term deal.
Whereas the Yankees think so highly of shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza that they don’t want to acquire a positional roadblock, their first base situation is a little more crowded in the present. Luke Voit is coming off an injury-plagued season but is still the incumbent at the position, with DJ LeMahieu also in the mix when he isn’t playing third base. The infield picture additionally consists of Gleyber Torres as the everyday second baseman, and Gio Urshela playing third and backing up at shortstop behind a new (stopgap) shortstop that will also be taking an every day role. Giancarlo Stanton is still expected to get the bulk of DH time, though since Stanton will get some usage in the outfield, that will open up the DH spot for one of the infielders to get more playing time.
Despite all the notable names here, Voit, LeMahieu, Torres, and Urshela are all coming off underwhelming seasons, so New York can’t just count on everyone to bounce back. Plus, a proven star like Freeman (even entering his age-32 season) represents such a big upgrade that the Yankees might just prefer to make the signing and then figure out how the pieces fit after the fact. For instance, Voit would seem like the most obvious trade candidate in this scenario, as Voit could be dangled to a first base-needy team that either missed out on Freeman or couldn’t approach his asking price in the first place.
It’s possible the Yankees might also be hoping they can land Freeman at something of a discount price amidst the post-lockout signing frenzy, though that could be more of a difficult play. Teams like the Blue Jays and Red Sox have also been linked to Freeman, the Dodgers and Angels have been noted as possible fits given Freeman’s SoCal roots, and there is still some sentiment that Freeman will ultimately remain with the Braves after all. MLBTR projected Freeman to land a six-year, $180MM deal this winter, and the first baseman is reportedly indeed looking for a contract in that range, though Atlanta (and presumably other clubs) has been hesitant to offer a sixth guaranteed year.
Like Correa and Story, Freeman has draft pick compensation attached since he rejected the qualifying offer. Freeman is five years older than Correa and a little over three years older than Story, plus first base is less of a premium position than shortstop — but it could be argued that Freeman in some ways a safer investment, given how consistent he has been over the last decade. If a team doesn’t want to pay Correa a reported $330MM or make a big nine-figure investment in Story coming off a down year, Freeman may appeal more to a team like the Yankees, who have multiple promising shortstops in the pipeline.
Locking up Freeman on a long-term deal might also be something of a hedge on the Yankees’ part in regards to an Aaron Judge extension. Judge is scheduled for free agency next winter, and he’ll be turning 31 in April 2023. It could be that the Yankees think committing big money to a 32-year-old Freeman through his age-36 or -37 season is a wiser move than paying Judge even more money through his 30’s. Freeman missed time in the 2015 and 2017 seasons due to wrist injuries, but has generally been a very durable player throughout his career. Judge, meanwhile, missed big portions of the 2018-20 seasons due to injury, though he stayed healthy in 2021.Comment -
The few people that I've spoken to that cover the MLB negations in the media all agree that that the MLBPA are clearly the dickheads here.
If we lose any games in April it's not the owners fault, they want to compromise.
Here's the latest.
The unofficial word is if this thing isn't settled by 2/16 (ten days from now) Spring training, starting with pitchers and catchers will be delayed.Comment -
I'm just assuming a long delayThe few people that I've spoken to that cover the MLB negations in the media all agree that that the MLBPA are clearly the dickheads here.
If we lose any games in April it's not the owners fault, they want to compromise.
Here's the latest.
The unofficial word is if this thing isn't settled by 2/16 (ten days from now) Spring training, starting with pitchers and catchers will be delayed.Comment -
Trevor Story leaving for New York? Same story all the time for these Rockies guysComment -
This why I've gone from pro-union to anti-union as I got older in life.
Unions lie.
This statement is a crock of half-truths.
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Kevin Kiermaier has been a fixture in Rays-related trade rumors for some years now, and this trend continued when Tampa reportedly discussed Kiermaier with the Phillies and other teams just prior to the start of the lockout. Kiermaier’s contract (a six-year, $53.5MM extension signed in March 2017) is relatively outsized by the Rays’ modest payroll standards, and as Kiermaier is now entering the final year of that deal, there stands a greater chance that a team in need of center field help will finally step in to make Kiermaier off the Rays’ books.
Any number of teams stand out as possible fits in a Kiermaier trade based on a variety of factors, including how much of the $14.5MM still owed to Kiermaier can best be absorbed into another team’s payroll. It’s possible Tampa Bay might be open to a deal that sees the Rays accept a minimal prospect return in exchange for a team simply taking all of Kiermaier’s remaining salary, or perhaps the Rays might add a prospect along with Kiermaier to facilitate this semi-salary dump.
But, there’s another wrinkle that could be involved in any Kiermaier negotiations. If such talks involve how much of Kiermaier’s salary will be covered by either side, it seems likely that at least one team has asked the Rays “hey, what about your other less-expensive center fielder entering his last year of team control?”
That would be Manuel Margot, scheduled for free agency following the 2022 season and projected to earn $5MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Seen as a natural center field successor to Kiermaier in the event of a trade, Margot would likely be a replacement for 2022 alone, given how the Rays generally only look to extend players in the early stages of their careers. If Margot isn’t a long-term answer, therefore, he himself stands out as a trade chip for a Rays front office that has traditionally been open to dealing almost anyone on their roster.
Margot is no stranger to switching teams, having already been part of two prominent trades in his career. The outfielder was part of the four-player package dealt from the Red Sox to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel in November 2015, and then Padres then shipped him to Tampa almost exactly two years ago to the day. That deal saw the Padres acquire Emilio Pagan for Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll, and it’s a trade that now looks like a solid win for the Rays given how Pagan has struggled over his two years in San Diego.
Margot, meanwhile, has contributed 2.0 fWAR over his 172 games in a Rays uniform, largely due to his excellent defense. As per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, in fact, Margot was the best overall defensive outfielder in baseball last year, with a league-best +16 OAA. The UZR/150 (+3.7) and Defensive Runs Saved (+13) metrics largely back up that assessment, as Margot played 656 2/3 innings in right field, 182 innings in center, and 122 2/3 innings in left in 2021.
Offensively, Margot is much more of a mixed bag. His 95 wRC+ and 96 OPS+ over his two seasons in Tampa is only slightly below average, and a .258/.317/.375 slash line over 623 plate appearances is passable considering what Margot brings to the table with his glovework. Margot also doesn’t strike out often, and has excellent speed, even if that speed has only translated into moderate success on the basepaths (25 steals in 37 chances with the Rays).
In general, however, Margot isn’t a major threat at the dish. He hasn’t shown much power or an ability to consistently draw walks, and while Margot may make plenty of contact, the quality of that contact is well below-average. Margot’s hard-hit ball rates and barrel rates have both been subpar every season from 2017-21. As one might expect from a right-handed bat, Margot’s career splits against southpaws (.760 OPS) are better than his numbers against righty pitching (.663 OPS).
All in all, Margot may not be an ideal fit as an everyday outfielder, but he is an ideal fourth outfielder or platoon partner. His ability to play all over the outfield makes Margot a particularly valuable piece for a Rays team that values flexibility, as Margot is a natural complement to the left-handed hitting Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, and Brett Phillips (plus Margot has also spelled the righty-swinging Randy Arozarena on occasion).
While he might be a good roster fit for the Rays, however, is Margot a fit for $5MM? That projected figure would represent the fifth-highest 2022 salary on Tampa Bay’s books, behind Kiermaier, Corey Kluber ($8MM), Mike Zunino ($7MM) and Tyler Glasnow’s $5.8MM arbitration projection. Since the Rays are always keeping a close eye on their budget, Margot’s $5MM figure may be deemed too pricey for what he brings in a backup outfield role.
Phillips, it should be noted, has hit .204/.301/.421 in 351 PA over the last two seasons. It isn’t exactly an offensive breakout, but it does represent a 101 wRC+/102 OPS+ that is at least a tick higher than Margot, and Phillips also brings comparable fielding and speed.
Top prospect Josh Lowe is also waiting in the wings, after playing his first two MLB games last season. Lowe is eyed as the longer-term answer in center field anyway, and seems likely to get a good chunk of playing time in 2022 regardless of who may or may not still be around in the Rays’ outfield.
There would be risk in counting on Lowe and Phillips to handle center field in the event of another Kiermaier absence, as Kiermaier’s well-documented injury history means that Tampa Bay simply can’t count on him for a full season. Arozarena or even switch-hitter Vidal Brujan could be deployed in center field in a pinch, to add a right-handed element to a center field mix that would be lefty-heavy if Margot wasn’t around. We also can’t rule out the possibility that the Rays could trade Margot and then acquire another outfielder in a future move, finding another Margot-esque player on the market available at a lower cost.
As mentioned earlier, you really can’t rule much out when it comes to potential Rays trades. It stands to reason that Kiermaier would be the preferred trade chip, yet if the questions about his health and salary prove to be too much of an obstacle, Tampa Bay might pivot to the next name down on the center field depth chart. Even if Margot lacks Kiermaier’s upside as an everyday player, his lower salary and comparable skillset would probably appeal to roughly the same number of outfield-needy teams. If anything, Margot’s lower salary might even bring more teams into the mix.Comment -
This the link to the official MLBPA home page.
Extremely informative and a very professional web site.
You ever wonder who exactly is on the executive committee for instance?
It's all in here.
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Just want some baseball and hoping all teams compete all year long.Comment -
Never going to support the billionaires, sorry.Comment -
The Cubs have had internal discussions about making a run at Anthony Rizzo in free agency, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Chicago is obviously barred from having contact with Rizzo or his representatives at Sports One Athlete Management during the lockout, but Levine suggests they could put forth a contract offer whenever the transactions freeze is lifted.
The Cubs’ previous efforts at locking Rizzo up for the long term obviously didn’t result in an agreement. During last year’s Spring Training, Chicago made a reported five-year, $70MM offer that the star first baseman turned down. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer expressed optimism at the time the parties would work something out during the regular season, but a mutually agreeable price point never presented itself.
The North Siders reportedly made a renewed effort at extension talks with both Rizzo and Javier Báez in July, but neither signed and both impending free agents were ultimately shipped off in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. Rizzo landed in the Bronx, with the Yankees sending prospects Kevin Alcantara and Alexander Vizcaino to the Cubs in return. The three-time All-Star spent the final few months of the year with the Yankees before hitting the open market for the first time in his career.
Given that extension discussions between the Cubs and Rizzo’s reps didn’t get across the finish line, a return to Chicago may seem far-fetched. Yet it’s possible Rizzo doesn’t find the kind of contract he apparently sought, at least during last March’s round of talks. Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected he’d receive a three-year, $45MM guarantee, $25MM and two years south of the extension offer he reportedly declined during Spring Training.
That dip in likely earning power reflects both Rizzo’s age (32) and downturn in production over the past two years. After posting a .222/.342/.414 mark during the shortened 2020 season, the lefty hitter put up a .248/.344/.440 line with 22 home runs over 576 plate appearances in 2021. That’s solid production — 12 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. Yet it falls short of the elite offense he brought during his 2014-19 peak, when he combined for a .284/.388/.513 showing that was 41 points above the league average output (141 wRC+).
Rizzo’s batted ball metrics offer mixed signals on his chances of rediscovering his middle-of-the-order form. On the plus side, last season’s 90.1 MPH average exit velocity matched his personal high, while his 41.1% hard contact rate was a career best. His bat speed still seems intact, but Rizzo has gotten increasingly pull-oriented of late. In each of the past two seasons, he’s hit more than 47% of his batted balls to the right side of the diamond — the two highest single-season marks of his career. Defenses have responded by shifting against him more than ever. Paired with an uptick in pop-ups, that’s contributed to a meager .246 batting average on balls in plays since the start of 2020; during his aforementioned six-year peak, Rizzo sported a much better .295 BABIP.
While the Florida native may no longer be the star he was at his peak, that’s not to say there’s no appeal for possible suitors. In addition to his still-strong exit velocities, Rizzo owns excellent bat-to-ball skills. The former Silver Slugger punched out in just 15.1% of his plate appearances last season. That’s right in line with his career mark and more than seven points lower than last year’s league average. Rizzo also consistently draws a fair amount of walks and while he’s limited to first base, he still rates highly as a defender there. The Cubs are also no doubt familiar with his generally well-regarded clubhouse presence, and he was among the faces of the most successful run of play in more than a century of franchise history.
After trading away many of the most recognizable stars of that run, the Cubs were expected by most to be in for a quiet offseason. Hoyer consistently denied they were embarking on a full rebuild, though, and they’ve already signed Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes and claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the Reds. The roster still looks short of contention, but reuniting with Rizzo would be a welcome development for much of the fanbase and upgrade an overall lineup that looks lacking. While they’ve already been more active than many anticipated, the Cubs should have financial flexibility to explore further additions. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects Chicago’s 2022 player payroll in the $114MM range. It seems unlikely they’ll jump to the $200+MM heights of the franchise’s record expenditures, but there’s plenty of room even before last season’s estimated $147MM season-opening level.
The Cubs would surely like to get another look at Frank Schwindel to see if his excellent showing as a 29-year-old rookie (.326/.371/.591 in 259 plate appearances) is the start of a late-career breakout. It’s widely expected the next collective bargaining agreement will include a universal designated hitter, though, likely leaving at-bats for both Schwindel and a possible outside addition to the first base/DH mix.
None of that is to say that the Cubs signing Rizzo is inevitable, or even especially likely. Front offices discuss possible moves that don’t ultimately come to fruition on a regular basis. And while reported interest in Rizzo has been fairly quiet this offseason, a couple more potential suitors have emerged.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expressed a desire to keep the 32-year-old in the fold back in November. With Freddie Freeman still unsigned, the Braves have looked into the possibility of pivoting to Rizzo. Freeman signing and a Matt Olson trade may be the catalysts necessary kickstart the respective free agent and trade markets for first basemen, which have yet to get going in earnest. Whenever that happens, perhaps the Cubs will embark on another effort to have Rizzo on the North Side for 2022 and beyond.Comment -
Who's the top MLB side arm pitcher these days?Comment -
They're no 'good guys' in these negotiations.
Back in The Mick's days and Teddy "Ball Game' days, yeah those players needed a union.
I'm ten years older than most of you guys but I wasn't even drawing breath when Teddy was calling it quits.
Being an information junkie, a need to know things kind of guy, I've done enough research to know all about the MLBPA, why it was created, when the MLBPA was created, who were the main characters if you will, you know, all that informative stuff.
The players got shafted by the owners up until 1966, and it all ended in 1968, thanks to Curt Flood who was indeed getting it up the ass by a couple of the owners because they could get away with it.
Then the players said enough of the bull shit, and we all know that story ended.
We got free agency, that's a beautiful thing, no longer a piece of meat, a slave if you will to one team's owner.
If I was around then I'd support the creation of that union all day, everyday.
But...
It's now a half a century later the, pardon the pun, the tables have turned.
The players have more. much more than they could possibly have or even dream of having.
The average, *average* yearly salary is about four million a year.
They get more daily meal allowance per game than I make in an entire month.
Oh boo-boo, I make four million per, I get put up in five star hotels when I have to work on the road, I can't afford to feed myself.
Enough, Jesus God enough already, the whole lot of them act like some trust fund, Yale University spoiled brat.
I'm now more pro-owner, than pro-union.
It's still the owners business, they pay all the bills, the ball park utilities, the insurance.
Enough.
The players won in 1968, yet they still act like (as the old saying goes) they've been there before.Comment -
Hopefully both sides can come to an agreement so we can start the season on time and get a little trade activity going...I miss the off season hot stove...Comment -
NBA just fine for me right now if MLB can’t figure this out soon.Comment -
So is a starting date pushed back yet. That's when I'll be talking this seriouslyComment -
1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics
The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll. Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt. Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration. He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March. Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+. Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards. It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.
There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson. He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected. The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal. Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game. The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.
2. Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics
The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018. It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends. Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+. In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019. Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19. He’ll turn 29 in April.
Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021. Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors. The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing. A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.
Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining. We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022. The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.
3. Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics
The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation. We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration. Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA. While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.
After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01. He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September. Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.
Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency. He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.
4. Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics
Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate. It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out. Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.
Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday. Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time. In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best. Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage. Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.
Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September. He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.
Wondering about Frankie Montas? He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.
5. Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics
Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post. The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022. He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.
Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate. Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6. After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72. Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.
Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either. So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable. He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.
6. Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox
The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings. The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer. Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball. The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout. They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.
As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again. That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.
I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary. Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable. I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen. The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.
7. Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays
Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons. He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards. With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario. Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017. He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.
Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger. Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field. Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over. The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.
Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.
8. Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets
And now we enter the Mets portion of the list. Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency. They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH. A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.
There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano. But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021. It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.
Why would anyone be interested? Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game. After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties. He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21. Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July. He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.
Smith is still only 26 years old. He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining. I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH. The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.
9. J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets
Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022. He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020. This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October. By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart. While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22. As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.
Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit. Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21. A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well. It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.
Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average. It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position. On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs. While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis. I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.
Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.
10. Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets
As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here. As such, he’s the least likely to be traded. In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.
Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20. Escobar is also capable of playing second base. McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well. It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays. Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected. A trade of one may mean the others are safe.
McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20. Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period. A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well. McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.
Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021. McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month. He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.
McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat. 30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.
11. Willson Contreras / C / Cubs
Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job. As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well. Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher. Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.
Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career. WAR is always tricky with catchers. FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.
The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross. The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency. Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras. At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.
On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload. The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending. A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends. A midseason trade is a possibility as well. The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.
12. Sonny Gray / SP / Reds
Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade. He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19. His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.
Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain. Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19. He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.
Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration. He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.
The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return. Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.
13. Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros
Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi. After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th. Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month. In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches. In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury. Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.
Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart. 32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year. He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.
Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings. You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season. The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.
14. Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees
Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees. However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.
Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production. This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee. He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.
With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time. We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year. He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.Comment -
I can describe Manfred up in one single word.
Idiot
This will probably him his job.
Theo may be in charge next year.
He's a sharp baseball man.
Very sharp.Comment -
I know your sarcasm, lol you're good at it
You may be a bit young to remember Bill White.
I was still in HS when Bill White became the first black executive in any sport when he selected President of the National League
And he was great at what he did, he handled all that late 1980''s, eastly 1990's bullshit flawlessly.
And there was a ton of bull shit going on.
He replaced Bart Giamatti in 1989 when Bart died of a heart attack,
Fay Vincent still believes Pete Rose caused the heart attack that killed Giamatti.
That hatred between Rose and Vincent was real.
Like serous.Comment -
Jason Giambi's brother, Jeremy just died.Comment
