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*edit, update*
Talks resume tomorrow, not today like I thought.
*edit, update*
Talks resume tomorrow, not today like I thought.
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During the pandemic, Lester bought beers for basically anyone in Chicago as a thank you. Sure he has the money for the hefty bar tabs, but classy nonetheless. Cubs don’t get that World Series win without him, that’s for sure. Worth every penny of that contract!!!Comment -
2018 was a tremendous season for Andrew Benintendi. The outfielder hit 16 home runs, stole 21 bases and slashed .290/.366/.465. His walk rate and strikeout rate were both better than league average, coming in at 10.7% and 16%, respectively. His wRC+ was 123 and he was worth 4.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. He was part of an utterly dominant Red Sox team that went 108-54 in the regular season and then cruised to a World Series title by going 11-3 in the postseason. To top it all off, that was just his age-23 season, suggesting that there was still time for him to soar to even greater heights.
Unfortunately, things have gone in the opposite direction since then, with his numbers slipping slightly from the heights of 2018. The following year, he hit 13 homers, stole 10 bases and slashed .266/.343/.431, for a wRC+ of 100 and 2.0 fWAR. The pandemic-shortened 2020 season was especially short for Benintendi, as a ribcage strain limited him to just 14 games. After a trade to the Royals, his 2021 season saw him bounce back to roughly his 2019 level of production. He hit 17 dingers, stole 8 bags and hit .276/.324/.442 for a wRC+ of 106 and 2.1 fWAR. That means that Benintendi has now played four full seasons, with three of them being solid campaigns of either 2.0 or 2.1 fWAR, as he also produced 2.0 fWAR in 2017.
Now Benintendi is entering his final year before reaching free agency, assuming the new CBA doesn’t drastically alter the previous service time structure. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected he’ll earn a salary of $9.3MM via arbitration. He’ll be playing for a Royals team with an uncertain short-term outlook, as their attempt to emerge out of rebuilding in 2021 came up short. They went 74-88, finishing 19 games behind the White Sox in the Central and just one game ahead of the basement-dwelling Twins. It was a relatively quiet pre-lockout offseason for them, as their biggest move so far was signing Taylor Clarke to a deal for less than $1MM. They should be able to improve by virtue of their young players continuing to develop, but it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in what could be Benintendi’s final year with the team. That leaves a wide variety of potential outcomes for him in the coming year.
If the Royals want Benintendi to stick around as they open a new competitive window, they could always offer him an extension, as they did with Michael A. Taylor in September. Taylor was headed into free agency in about a month, but agreed to a two-year extension that will keep him in KC through 2023. However, Benintendi will likely require a lengthier commitment than that, given that he is more than three years younger than Taylor and comes with a higher ceiling.
Benintendi is currently slated to reach free agency as a 28-year-old, similar to Kyle Schwarber, who was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $70MM over four years. They don’t produce in the same way, as Schwarber typically hits more but without much defensive contribution. However, they are still fairly analogous in terms of overall production. Over the past five years, Schwarber’s 10.8 fWAR in 593 games just barely eclipses Benintendi’s 10.1 fWAR in 585 games.
It would be something of a surprise for the Royals to give out an extension in that ballpark to Benintendi, as it would be fairly close to the four-year, $82MM extension they gave to Salvador Perez a year ago. Having close to $40MM committed to just two players would be a risky maneuver for a team that’s only rarely run a payroll over $100MM.
There’s also the possibility that Benintendi’s job in the outfield gets filled internally in the next year. The club currently has an infield mix that includes Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana and Hunter Dozier, with prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto likely to debut in 2022. That crowded mix could lead to Merrifield and Dozier getting pushed to the outfield, alongside Taylor, Kyle Isbel and Edward Olivares. Considering all those options, perhaps they’d think it best to spend their money elsewhere.
With just one year of club control remaining, Benintendi will be a logical trade candidate if the Royals struggle to compete again in 2022. With the aforementioned glut of position players, the outfield could be covered by Taylor, Isbel, Merrifield, Dozier and Olivares after his departure. If Benintendi is having another season similar to what he did in 2017, 2019 and 2021, he should garner plenty of interest at the deadline, especially given that his affordable salary will be even less onerous by midseason. If he can go a notch higher and start to resemble his 2018 production, even better.
There’s also the chance that the Royals are able to take a step forward and get into the postseason mix, especially considering that the new CBA is expected to include an expanded postseason. A player like Benintendi could certainly be useful in a postseason chase, especially given his experience. If he were to stick on the Royals roster until the end of 2022 season, there’s a chance he could be a candidate for a qualifying offer, depending on how his season went. A one-year contract around $19MM or so could perhaps be a bit high for a 2-win player, but Benintendi has shown he is capable of more. Considering he will be hitting free agency at a young age, he would likely be inclined to turn down the QO and try to secure himself a long-term deal. Of course, that’s dependent on a healthy and productive season in 2022.
However, there is also the great unknown of the next CBA. There’s a chance that the qualifying offer system is scrapped or somehow altered in a way that would change all of these calculations for Benintendi and the Royals. There’s also the chance that Benintendi’s free agency trajectory is altered by the new CBA. It was reported back in August that one of the proposals made by MLB involved altering the free agency rules to be based on age instead of service time. Under this proposed structure, players would reach free agency at age 29 1/2, as opposed to the previous system of accruing six years of service time. Benintendi was born July 6th, 1994, meaning he wouldn’t reach 29 1/2 years of age until 2024. (July 1st was proposed as the cutoff date, meaning Benintendi would just miss.) The MLBPA reportedly wanted nothing to do with this proposal, but the course of the negotiations is difficult to predict at the moment. In a prolonged standoff, resolution will likely require a bit of compromise on both sides. It’s impossible to know which items will wind up back on the table as part of a larger deal.
There are a great many unknowns for baseball in 2022. We don’t know when the lockout will end, if a full season will be played or what the rules will be. For Benintendi and the Royals, there are even more questions remaining to be answered.Comment -
The A’s are generally expected to make a few marquee players available after the lockout in an effort to trim payroll. If Oakland does embark on something of an organizational reboot, Matt Olson seems one of the likelier players to wind up elsewhere. Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $12MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, Olson might be the costliest player on the A’s books.
Trading Olson is the most straightforward way to reduce payroll, but he’d still be in plenty of demand around the league. A $12MM salary is well below market value for a two-time Gold Glove winning first baseman coming off a .271/.371/.540 showing that earned him an eighth-place finish in AL MVP balloting. And with another season of below-market club control remaining thereafter (barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement), landing Olson would probably require sending multiple highly-regarded young players back to Oakland.
Which teams are in the best position to pull off the blockbuster if the A’s make Olson available? Before looking at the best fits, we can remove a few teams from consideration. The Pirates, Orioles and Diamondbacks aren’t in the competitive window to trade for a player with two years of control. The same is probably true of the Nationals and Cubs, barring an unexpected post-lockout push for immediate contention. The Rays’ projected 2022 payroll is already $18MM higher than last year’s season-opening mark. They’re probably not taking on a $12MM salary this winter; the Reds have spent all offseason signaling a desire to cut spending.
Which teams seem to be the most plausible landing spots?
Best Fits For A Deal
- Braves — Are the Braves finally going to end their stalemate with Freddie Freeman after the lockout? If he signs somewhere else, they’ll need a first baseman. Olson is reportedly on their radar as a possible replacement.
- Brewers — The Brewers have a championship-caliber pitching staff, but the offense has been middle-of-the-pack. Rowdy Tellez was alright after coming over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade, but his career track record is mixed. Olson would be a definitive upgrade, and Tellez could stick around as a possible designated hitter option if the universal DH is included in the next CBA. The question is whether Milwaukee — currently projected for a payroll around $20MM north of last season’s Opening Day mark — would take on a salary in this range, but he’s a perfect fit for the roster.
- Giants — The Giants are only a strong fit in the event of a universal DH. Otherwise, first base belongs to Brandon Belt. If there’s an NL DH, acquiring Olson from their crosstown rivals and giving Belt more time at DH would be a boon to an already excellent offense, and it might help the 33-year-old Belt stay healthy all season.
- Mariners — The Mariners are known to be looking for another bat. Acquiring Olson and pushing Ty France to DH would fill that void, and Seattle has the payroll space to accommodate such a move. The potential holdup? Seattle’s loath to part with their top prospects, and that might be especially true in an intra-divisional trade.
- Rangers — The Rangers have looked into the possibility of an Olson deal. They’ve been ultra-aggressive this winter but still look to be shy of 2022 contention. Landing Olson and pushing Nathaniel Lowe to DH would complete perhaps the sport’s top infield, although there’d still be major question marks about the pitching staff. As with Seattle, there are possible intra-divisional trade complications to consider.
- Twins — The Twins have been quieter than expected this winter. They should have payroll flexibility, though, and Miguel Sanó isn’t coming off a great season. Upgrading the rotation seems like the priority in Minnesota, but the free agent starting pitching market has been largely picked clean. Might they pivot and add to an already-strong offense to try to compensate for the lackluster starting staff?
- Yankees — The Yankees have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for much of the winter, with good reason. Luke Voit dealt with a series of injuries last season, and the Yankees seemed sufficiently discouraged with his health outlook to land Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline. Rizzo’s now a free agent, and while New York could opt to roll with Voit again, there’s little question Olson would at least be a marked defensive upgrade.
Plausible But Longer Odds
- Dodgers — One can seemingly never rule the Dodgers out on stars. But this probably requires an NL designated hitter to pull off, given the presences of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux between first and second base.
- Guardians — A $12MM salary might wind up being too hefty for the Guardians. Yet they only have $11MM in guaranteed money on the books this year, with an estimated $49MM in commitments after accounting for arbitration projections. This is a franchise that has exceeded nine figures in the past, and incumbent first baseman Bobby Bradley struck out in 35.5% of his plate appearances last year.
- Marlins — The Marlins could supplant Jesús Aguilar at first, and Olson would be a massive upgrade to a lineup that struggled in 2021. Miami has plenty of young pitching that might appeal to Oakland. The Fish seem more focused on outfield help, but an Olson trade makes some sense if they pivot back to the dirt.
- Padres — The Padres tend to act boldly, and they could stand to upgrade over Eric Hosmer. With a projected payroll approaching $200MM, it’s not clear how much further ownership’s willing to spend. Landing Olson might require first shedding the bulk of Hosmer’s contract in a separate trade, but that’d require parting with some prospect talent even before considering the package of young players San Diego would need to send to Oakland.
- Phillies — An NL DH could theoretically bring Olson into play, with Rhys Hoskins assuming the bat-only role. Shortstop, third base, two outfield spots and the bullpen are all arguably bigger concerns for Philadelphia though.
- Red Sox — The Red Sox could supplant Bobby Dalbec at first base this year. With J.D. Martinez slated to hit free agency next winter, top prospect Triston Casas could break in as a DH in 2023. Yet with clearer needs in the bullpen and either at second base or in the outfield, Olson to Boston feels like a longshot.
Teams With More Pressing Needs
- Angels — Jared Walsh broke out with an All-Star campaign in 2021 and should have first base accounted for. Designated hitter? That’s occupied by the reigning AL MVP.
- Astros — Yuli Gurriel is back at first base after winning the batting title. Yordan Álvarez is locked in at DH.
- Blue Jays — The Blue Jays have the reigning MVP runner-up, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., at first base. It’s unlikely they’d want Guerrero to become a full-time DH this early in his career. One could argue for Toronto acquiring Olson and kicking Guerrero back to third base, but it’s probably best to leave the young star at first and try to upgrade the other infield spots more directly.
- Cardinals — The Cardinals have Paul Goldschmidt at first base and some young options (Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez) for the possible DH spot.
- Mets — The Mets have Pete Alonso at first and a number of offense-minded players already on the roster who could step into a DH role if needed.
- Rockies — The Rockies just extended C.J. Cron. If the new CBA contains a universal DH, could they acquire Olson and take Cron off defense? That seems far-fetched, even for a Colorado team that views itself closer to contention than most outside observers would.
- Royals — The Royals seem to be prioritizing bullpen help. They’d probably like to move Carlos Santana, but top prospect Nick Pratto could step in at first base in the unlikely event they find a Santana suitor.
- Tigers — Miguel Cabrera is still around for two more years at DH, and top prospect Spencer Torkelson is on the doorstep of taking over first base.
- White Sox — The White Sox are already at a franchise-record projected payroll and have José Abreu and Andrew Vaughn to cover first base/DH
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Nasher, I hope you have a good source. I’m not very optimistic about this ending so fast, but I hope you are right!!Comment -
Loved John Lester. Guy was a competitor. I remember him getting pissed because Kris Bryant kept making errors one gameComment -
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The little birdie lied to me.Comment -
The Mets recently signed left-hander Alex Claudio and right-hander Stephen Nogosek to minor league deals, Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America reports. The signings are allowed during the lockout since both players are minor league free agents.
Claudio was released by the Red Sox in late September after inking a minors deal with Boston in August. That deal with the Sox came on the heels of a 5.51 ERA over 32 2/3 innings with the Angels, as Claudio had some uncharacteristic struggles against left-handed batters and with his control (10.1% walk rate).
Known for his durability and his knack for inducing grounders, Claudio enjoyed some solid success with the Rangers and Brewers from 2014-20, even if his lack of a traditional high velo/high strikeout bullpen resume twice led Milwaukee to non-tender him. Claudio’s early-career numbers (a 2.66 ERA over 162 1/3 innings from 2014-17) were better than his more recent work (4.28 ERA in 149 1/3 IP in 2018-20), and he has also had trouble keeping the ball in the park in two of his last three seasons. In 2021, Claudio posted a 26.1% homer rate, allowing six home runs over his 32 2/3 frames with the Halos.
Only just entering his age-30 season, Claudio could be an interesting candidate for something of a rebound year, particularly since the defensively-challenged Angels weren’t a great fit for a groundball pitcher. The Mets can take a closer look at Claudio in spring camp, and he would seemingly have a good shot at winning a job in a New York bullpen thin on southpaws. David Peterson represents the only healthy left-handed pitcher on the Mets’ entire 40-man roster.
For Nogosek, it marks a quick return to the organization after the Mets cut him loose at the November 30 non-tender deadline. Nogosek (who just turned 27 earlier this week) first came to the Mets from the Red Sox in July 2017 as part of the trade package for Addison Reed, and the righty has eight career MLB games on his resume. Between 6 2/3 innings over seven appearances in 2019 and a single three-inning appearance this past season, Nogosek has a 9.31 ERA in his brief big league career.
As a minor leaguer, Nogosek has a 3.55 ERA over 238 innings, working as a reliever for all but three of his 170 games. Nogosek can miss some bats (27.01% strikeout rate) but control has been an issue, with an above-average 11.91% walk rate in his time on the farm. He struggled to a 5.14 ERA over 35 innings with Triple-A Syracuse in 2021, and also spent about six weeks on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation.Comment -
Yeah this isn't a good sign because it's getting more and more probable that they at least don't start spring training on time which could cut into the regular season. I am holding out hope that doesn't happen but it's obvious that the players and owners are far from on the same page.Comment -
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- Yankees pitcher Jameson Taillon discussed his ongoing ankle rehab with former Yankees workhorse David Cone on the latter’s podcast this week. The 30-year-old Taillon once again acknowledged that he remains about a month behind his typical offseason throwing program, jiving with the report he gave last December. More encouragingly however, is the right-hander’s claim that he isn’t feeling any lingering pain from his surgically repaired ankle. While his current regimen consists of throwing 3-4 times a week at much less than full, mid-90’s velocity, this marks another positive step forward in the right-hander’s rehab process. Taillon was a league average arm last year, sporting a 4.30 ERA in 144 plus innings, but has demonstrated the ability to be more than that throughout his career. More positive news as Taillon ramps back up will be welcome for a Yankees club that has a number of solid rotation options but only a few that don’t come with health concerns of their own.
- Per a report from Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, longtime Marlins radio announcer Dave Van Horne announced that he is “essentially retiring” after declining the team’s offer to return to the organization in 2022 in a reduced capacity. The 82-year-old Van Horne retires after 53 years of broadcasting at the major league level. After a 33-year tenure broadcasting for the Montreal Expos, Van Horne pivoted to an upstart Marlins team at the end of 2000. In his lengthy career, the veteran sportscaster called three perfect games, thirteen no-hitters, narrated the 2003 Marlins successful World Series run, and was awarded the Ford C. Frick Award from the Baseball Hall of Fame in recognition of his broadcasting contributions.
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I'll watch NBA playoffs in June if they strike, and I'm not that crazy over the NBA.Comment -
Not sure what this means. A different game than in the 80s and 90s for sure, but for sure the highest skill we have ever seen in the NBA currently. Dirk Nowitzki used to be an oddity, now so many big guys that make 3s and skill level off the charts. Peavy and I always with different opinions, but love to have a friendly argument brother.Comment -
I'm with you.
I miss McHale throwing elbows at Laimbeer.Comment -
The NBA changed with everyone shooting 3's now. I like it but not as much as I did during the 80's. I'll cheer on the Warriors because that's my team but I really hope there is Giants baseball this summer because that's what I really look forward to to in the summer.Comment -
Wow Melky Cabrera and Travis Snyder both retired from baseball. Lots of retirements.Comment -
Fair enough on the NBA, just way different than what we had in the Bird, Jordan, Magic era. Free agency has changed the game a ton also. Studs aren’t on the same team their whole career. Guys don’t hate each other and develop rivalries like the nasty boy Pistons. Shooting, passing, and dribbling just insane these days with the way guys train. Guys aren’t drinking beers and banging women all night after games. They are actually taking care of sleep, diet, and recovery. Still some guys that party I’m sure, but overall things are so much different.Comment -
The 2021-22 international signing period is officially underway, and though this signing period is open until Dec. 15, 2022, many of the big names have already signed. Teams have long since lined up deals with newly eligible teenage players, so the news today largely represents confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon professional careers.
Let’s round up some of the most notable signings of the day. Most of these agreements have been known for a while, as both Baseball America’s Ben Badler (signings tracker; scouting links) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter feed; rankings) have listed each club’s expected landing spot and approximate signing bonus on their rankings for months. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Check the above links for further information and other signings. Here are a few key deals reported on Twitter by Sanchez:
- Roderick Arias, SS, Yankees: The Yankees have come to an agreement with MLB.com’s top-ranked international free agent on the market for a signing amount of $4.oMM, reports Sanchez. The Dominican switch-hitter runs well, gets good reviews for his footwork and arm strength at shortstop, and brings a solid hit tool from both sides of the plate.
- Cristhian Vaquero, OF, Nationals: For the second consecutive season, the Nationals appear to have nabbed one of the top prospects on the international board. They have come to a $4.9MM agreement to sign the left-handed Cuban outfielder, the top prospect on Baseball America’s board. The Nats are essentially all-in on Vaquero, who will soak up more than ninety percent of their available pool money.
- Ricardo Cabrera, SS, Reds: MLB.com’s third-ranked international prospect has come to an agreement with the Reds. No signing amount has been listed as of this time.
- William Bergolla Jr., SS, Phillies: Philadelphia has come to a $2.2MM agreement with one of the top prospects on the board. While MLB.com has the Venezuelan fourth on their board, Baseball America is slightly less bullish, ranking him eighth overall in this class. The 17-year-old right-hander is the son of William Bergolla, who was a Reds farmhand who appeared in 17 games with Cincinnati back in 2005.
- Oscar Colas, OF, White Sox: The White Sox reached a $2.7MM agreement with Colas, one of the more intriguing prospects on this year’s board, in part because he’s on the older side for most international prospects. The Cuban outfielder is 23-years-old, but that could make him a quick-rising prospect for Chicago.
Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2MM or more, and we’ll keep this list updated throughout the day as more agreements come to light:
- Rockies, $2.8MM, SS Dyan Jorge
- Mariners, $2.5MM, OF Lazaro Montes
- Braves, $2.5MM, Diego Benitez
- Tigers, $2.2MM, SS Javier Osorio
- Giants, $2.2MM, SS Ryan Reckley
- Blue Jays, $2MM+, C Luis Meza
- Rangers, $2MM, OF Anthony Gutierrez
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