while i am not having much luck here with all this apathy, maybe somebody can tell me whose line scoresandodds uses? I just realized that their history blurb showing recent line movements (like 23/22.5/21) is actually a link and if you click on it you can see the date and time of the line change. it is actually quite interesting and i am considering writing a scraper to collect that historical data and maybe build a model that looks at the line movements and what the correlation is to the outcome. over the years i have read a lot about 'steam' players (and their getting restricted for playing steam) but i have never seen an empirical study. anyone interested can respond here or by PM.
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game info, and amount money on either side of market moves lines one way or another. This i know for sure. But usually the game dynamics within that specific game and the edges whichever side has, doesnt usually correlate at all to the lines itself. A perfect example i have in mlb. D'backs Miley whenever he faces the Padres, always always get hit hard by most if not all of their hitters and hardly ever fairs well, as in odds are stacked against him. The final scores always correlate this dynamic as well, you look them up if u like. But the thing is, the lines always move towards the D'backs and the last matchup he had vs the Pads, i believe it closed at -175 @home. And once again he lost. So how aren't the padres favored at least a bit in this matchup? What i find to be true is, lines have no correlation to the outcomes, and very few trends actually exist as facts. I take game by game approach, use my IQ of the game at hand. This i found to be most successful for sure. So what im suggesting is, dont waste ur time of tracking those data. Line movements is for marketing purposes, and to adjust info coming into that specific game. Thats pretty much it.Comment -
some line movements are not accurate, maybe because they are not live.Comment -
I was also wondering if anyone knows what book (or books) socresandodds are using for their data. I real cursory check does not seem to match up with Don Best numbers for any particular book.Comment -
sportsbook.com - thanks - i didn't realize they owned it. i use maddux.com but last sunday afternoon they crashed. i guess a lot of people are looking to them. btw - i see lines are posted earlier now for upcoming games - good for me. also - i wasn't looking to build a betting model based on line movements, i am just interested in analyzing the data. obviously when looking at history of line movements, it can't be live.Comment
