Why is betting against the public important?

[Snine]

Hey guys, still pretty new to sports betting compared to alot of you. I see it all across the internet, that betting against the public is a sharp thing to do. Can someone explain why exactly this is?

The only thing I can think of is that, if alot of people are betting on one side, then the line moves and all of a sudden the other side could become undervalued and +EV? There is probably more to it then that though, or maybe betting against the public isn't as important as some people make it out to be.

What do you guys think?

[PanamaBrad]

If u theorize that the opening line was a "fair" line to begin with, then if the public moves this line too far, you certainly have value for the fade. Your job is to judge whether fair was achieved to start with and how far (depends on the sport) the line needs to move to give you value on the fade. GL

[OldschoolGambler]

How many points move and for what sports?

[Smoke]

because more often then not the public loses their asses especially in the NFL. If you fade the public in the NFL every week you will come out ahead season end

[BigdaddyQH]

The whole notion of fading the public is a fraud. First of all, it does NOT matter how many people are on a certain side of a game. What matters is how much money is on a certain side of a game. If 9 people in here wager $100 on team "A" and I wager $1000 on team "B", everyone will see that the "Public" is on team "A" by a 90%-10% margin, but the fact is that there is more money actually riding on team "B" than team "A" and that is all the book is concerned with.

Next, it is very simple and easy to sucker in people ho think they know what they are doing into poor wagers. There are many tricks that the "sharps" (as you people like to call them) use. The easiest to explain is the "Bait and Switch". What happens here is that the sharps will have many of their "runners" put down small wagers on the team that they end up wagering for. People see this and think that the "public" is on that certain team and go the other way. When the line is where the sharps want it, they come down big time on their team. This also works in reverse. The people who love to watch the line movement also get suckered in. Again the same trick applies, except that this time the shaprs are waiting for the last minute "let's see where the line is going" players to follow along. Then the sharps dump big time on the other team. Two examples of the same theory and how they can be used. There are many more that I know of, but that is for you guys to find out yourselves.

No one in here is nearly smart enough to figure out when the public is being played or not. You best play is simply taking the team that you think will win the game outright. IF that team is a dog, you will get either points or a + ML, depending on which way you go. If it is the favorite, you can give the points or the ML. That should be your only concern. Do not bother with all of these people who think they know it all. Ask them how much they have won or lost overall.

[Snine]

The whole notion of fading the public is a fraud. First of all, it does NOT matter how many people are on a certain side of a game. What matters is how much money is on a certain side of a game. If 9 people in here wager $100 on team "A" and I wager $1000 on team "B", everyone will see that the "Public" is on team "A" by a 90%-10% margin, but the fact is that there is more money actually riding on team "B" than team "A" and that is all the book is concerned with.

Next, it is very simple and easy to sucker in people ho think they know what they are doing into poor wagers. There are many tricks that the "sharps" (as you people like to call them) use. The easiest to explain is the "Bait and Switch". What happens here is that the sharps will have many of their "runners" put down small wagers on the team that they end up wagering for. People see this and think that the "public" is on that certain team and go the other way. When the line is where the sharps want it, they come down big time on their team. This also works in reverse. The people who love to watch the line movement also get suckered in. Again the same trick applies, except that this time the shaprs are waiting for the last minute "let's see where the line is going" players to follow along. Then the sharps dump big time on the other team. Two examples of the same theory and how they can be used. There are many more that I know of, but that is for you guys to find out yourselves.

No one in here is nearly smart enough to figure out when the public is being played or not. You best play is simply taking the team that you think will win the game outright. IF that team is a dog, you will get either points or a + ML, depending on which way you go. If it is the favorite, you can give the points or the ML. That should be your only concern. Do not bother with all of these people who think they know it all. Ask them how much they have won or lost overall.

Thanks everyone who replied, especially the quoted post. Confirmed a lot of what I believed was true.

"Your best play is simply taking the team that you think will win the game outright."

Have had the most success so far following that advice, but have one question for you. Do you ever bet on a team you think will lose, but will cover the spread? Say a +10 point dog in NFL.

[HUY]

because more often then not the public loses their asses especially in the NFL. If you fade the public in the NFL every week you will come out ahead season end

They do not lose their asses, they lose the juice, which means that if you fade them you will lose the juice as well. Try basic arithmetic again pal.

[PanamaBrad]

More points needed for football, like 3 or 4 and less for hoops. Minimum 2.

[TPowell]

They do not lose their asses, they lose the juice, which means that if you fade them you will lose the juice as well. Try basic arithmetic again pal.

incorrect, Joe Public doesn't hit 50% because they have some preconceived "knowledge" which takes the chance out of it

[BigDofBA]

Question for you guys in this thread.

Do you people not think you're the public?

LOL. Fade the public every game. You'll still lose money. Trust me. The books will gladly take you fading the public every game. The public loses about half the time and wins about half time time yet the books still make money....

It's not that hard to figure out why.

[possum11]

We can't know the exact numbers but you can get an idea of who the public likes based on free contests like espn and yahoo.

[hutennis]

incorrect, Joe Public doesn't hit 50% because they have some preconceived "knowledge" which takes the chance out of it

Yeah. The thing is, HUY never said Joe Public hits 50%. He said he is losing to a juice.

Whether public hits 50% or 49.5% does not matter as long as percentage does not go beyond the area protected by juice. And it does not, on average.
Another side still loses. It maybe loses a little less, but how much help is it?

[HUY]

"The public" is a hazy and bullshit idea that nobody worth his salt cares about.

[smitch124]

If you want a good example of the public, look at the BTP results:

WLT: 10005-10779-356
Percent: 48.14 %
Units: -2,435.00

Pretty crappy, lots of money for the books. Still not bad enough to make money fading them unless you have access to no juice betting.

[vividjohn45]

"The public" is a hazy and bullshit idea that nobody worth his salt cares about.

. The public luvs bron cos. Mo ved. Line 3 pts. Vs. Dallas. Value was o.n. dallas ATS. Ml. Was. +300.

[Microphone]

I use it as a tool. But just one weapon. Blindly doing it isn't worth much.

Covers gets me the wide spectrum of Joe Public. I'm not as big on sportsbook based betting %'s, although I know the sportsinsights poster will scold me.

[Cookie Monster]

Betting "against the public" gives you a nice superiority feel. Never mind if it is -EV, you are taking the sharp side! You are betting like the pros!!

[JR007]

public not only likes favorites but road favorites in the nfl, definite fade