Parlay. Always win possibility?

**reno cool** · 02-17-09, 02:00 AM

225 or32768

1x2^15

**rookie** · 02-17-09, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by dec03001

So I'm new here.

Bought the SBC John M. deal. Yea I realize that it isn't the most popular combination here. With him and Betus.

I started with John with 1000 and now I'm attempting to cashout 3100 in little over 1.5 months.

So....so far I am happy.

Anyway, to the topic.

I have been thinking about the parlays, and WOW. They pay out huge.

I was thinking how one could manipulate the system. Let's say take every possible calculation.

Example:

3 team parlay. 9 possible outcomes. 3 ^2 = 9
So bet all 9 outcomes. With this low of a wager and low a team parlay amount it just wont add up.

If you bet on 15 teams. All possible outcomes ( 15^2= 225).
Risk to win is 1 to 1500. So bet 50$, win 75000. Costs 11250 to place the bets. Profit 63750.

What is stopping me from doing this? Are my numbers right with the possible outcomes?

Thoughts are welcome!

Thanks!

3 team parlay: 8 possible outcomes (2^3)
15 team parlay: 32768 outcomes (2^15)

**dec03001** · 02-17-09, 02:06 AM

oh bother....lol

figures

**Neil Nollidge** · 03-26-09, 07:39 AM

I suggest that parlay punters experiment with the Kelly calculator provided by Ganchrow.

**Wrecktangle** · 03-26-09, 10:18 PM

On rare occasions, parlays work. A number of years ago, the Stations Casinos had 1/2 pt NFL parlay cards that ran the 3 team parlay at true odds. Naturally, the sharps pounded them as the 1/2 made a difference as the line moved through the week. Midway thru the season, they changed the odds back.

If your pick % is high enough, sometimes the parlays can make sense.

All this reminds me of hitting the 6, 5, 4, 3, & 2 team parlays along with a bunch of sides plays at the same Casino in a fun play as the odds had shifted on several teams and the printed cards had not. I'd basically played everything up to 10 teams with single tickets for each parlay. The top 6 teams came in and I was only one team off on the higher cards. 9-1 week was pretty sweet. One of the few times I'd played parlays since usually the odds not not good enough.