bankroll strategy idea

[reno cool]

Lets say I intend on playing 500 games and I'm betting I will finish the season with at least 5% edge.(per flat bet) If I don't reach 5% I'm happy to lose my bankroll, but If I do I want to make the biggest amount possible.
What's my best approach?

[LT Profits]

Assuming you know your bankroll, full Kelly with a 5% edge.

Personally, I would be more conservative unless you are absolutely positive you have a 5% edge.

[reno cool]

I'm thinking Kelly wouldn't be optimum because I'm willing to lose the whole br if I don't reach the goal.
Also I'm not saying I have a 5% edge or intend to calculate my bankroll in the Kelly sense. I will put aside an amount I want to risk, but it wont be a large % of my overall bankroll.
This thing is still mostly experimental so I'd like to give myself a chance to make the most $ possible if I actually run at 5%+. If I run at some smaller return I want to lose the whole bankroll.

[Peep]

I think what LT is saying that if you want to give yourself a chance to make the most possible, you have to bet even more than 5%.

[reno cool]

Look at it this way. You're making even money bets. Lets say you know you will win 263 and lose 237 how would you arrange your bets?

Say I believe I have a 25% chance of reaching this goal. It doesn't really matter. I want to know what's the most I can make if I reach this goal and how to stagger the bets.

[trixtrix]

if your goal is to maximize ev and not eg, then you should just bet your entire bankroll on every bet

[u21c3f6]

Look at it this way. You're making even money bets. Lets say you know you will win 263 and lose 237 how would you arrange your bets?

Say I believe I have a 25% chance of reaching this goal. It doesn't really matter. I want to know what's the most I can make if I reach this goal and how to stagger the bets.

Full Kelly is the answer: 5.2% of the current bankroll for each bet will result in the maximum amount to be won.

Joe.

[u21c3f6]

To add to my previous post, using your numbers and a starting bankroll of $1,000 here are the results for using various %'s of current bankroll:

1% $1,264
2% $1,522
2.6% $1,660
3% $1,742
4% $1,896
5% $1,964
5.2% $1,966
5.5% $1,962
6% $1,935
7% $1,812
10% $1,100
15% $172
20% $7
25% $0

[reno cool]

This is the breakdown If I would bet Kelly, and it's close to what I'm looking for. The Difference is betting the 5.2% as you say will still give me a profit if I run at say 3%. I want to go bust or at least lose $ if I run at anything less than 5%. But, for that trade off I want to increase the amount I win at 5%.

[Ganchrow]

This is the breakdown If I would bet Kelly, and it's close to what I'm looking for. The Difference is betting the 5.2% as you say will still give me a profit if I run at say 3%. I want to go bust or at least lose $ if I run at anything less than 5%. But, for that trade off I want to increase the amount I win at 5%.

If you're looking to lose money if you run at less than 263 (263+237) = 52.6%, then if we let x = bet size as a fraction of bankroll:

(1+x)^263 * (1-x)^237 = 1
x ≈ 10.381%

This would be the equivalent of betting roughly 2.0018-Kelly (so a smidgen more risk tolerant than double-Kelly) and would result in the following returns as percentage of initial bankroll given realized results:You'll note that the median outcome (263 wins and 237 losses) implies bankroll stagnation.

[u21c3f6]

This is the breakdown If I would bet Kelly, and it's close to what I'm looking for. The Difference is betting the 5.2% as you say will still give me a profit if I run at say 3%. I want to go bust or at least lose $ if I run at anything less than 5%. But, for that trade off I want to increase the amount I win at 5%.

Correct, the above only applies to betting a % of the current bankroll. If you were to simply wager a flat 5.2% of the beginning bankroll (every bet for the 500 bets would be $52) your bankroll would have become $2,352 (assuming that you did not encounter a bad streak and go bust) which is higher than the Kelly amount. If you flat bet 10% or $100 per wager your bankroll would have become $3,600 however at the risk of a greater chance of going bust. There is no one correct flat bet answer. The higher the % of flat bet, the more you can win but also the chance of going bust increases as well. More risk, more reward.

Joe.

[Casi]

Forget it, Pros don´t flat bet.
If you do you won´t have a 5% edge, because you are not sharp enough (sorry).

[reno cool]

Ganchrow,
What you show has me lose money if I don't win 52.6. That is what I want.
However, this doesn't have me winning anything if I do reach my goal.
I want more winnings than the 60 some percent growth I would get betting 5.2% of bankroll. For that I'm willing to sacrifice whatever money I would've made (or had left) if I run at less than 52.6.

I'm guessing this would involve some kind of varying betting %. Any idea how this could work?

[reno cool]

Casi,
1. I haven't mentioned flat betting. What I'm trying to do here is anything but flat betting.
2. I have no interest in your analysis of a sharp.(sorry)

[Casi]

I bet your don´t ^^
Your whole idea of a plan sounds like a bookies wet dream.

[u21c3f6]

I bet your don´t ^^
Your whole idea of a plan sounds like a bookies wet dream.

Please describe what plan you would suggest.

Joe.

[Casi]

One that doesn´t include things like "if i don´t get a 5% edge iam happy to lose my bankroll" ?

If i misunderstood Reno iam sorry, but if not...noone can guarantee this edge.
He mentioned he never said a thing about flat betting, but i read it in his first post.
I did this professionally over a rather long period of time (with bets up to 10k), and all this stuff just makes no sense...

What is he looking for?

[MrX]

One thing's for sure:

If you find yourself at 262 wins and 237 losses, bet it all!

-x

[MrX]

Actually, bet it all whenever you have 237 losses.

[reno cool]

Actually, bet it all whenever you have 237 losses.

Yes this much I know. But how would you start?

just to give a small example: 3plays and I'm betting I can go at least 2-1.
If I had to bet 33% of bankroll as in kelly I would grow the bankroll by 18.5%.
But If I wanted to make the most $ going 2-1 at the risk of everything else I could grow br by 100% like so:

$100 br

bet 50 if lose bet parlay the remaining 50. LWW= 200
bet 50 if win bet 50 if win bet 0 WW=200
bet 50 if win bet 50 if lose bet rem100 WLW=200

[spongerat]

how does parlaying the 50 in your hypo turn into 200

[reno cool]

50 win turns to 100
100 win turns to 200

[spongerat]

oh you mean just bet sequentially, i thoguht you literally meant parlay which pays 2.6 to 1

[spongerat]

also thats assuming you find +100 lines

[reno cool]

yeah, this is just a hypothetical example to explain what I'm looking for.
More of a mathematical question or puzzle. I'm assuming even money in both cases for simplicity.