Do line movements predict anything?

[Bsims]

I've often wonder if line movements tell us much of anything? There seems to be two schools of thought here.

1-Line movement toward one team (some call it steam) is indicative that that team is more likely to win. This is consistent with the efficient market concept where the opinions of the general public collectively are pretty good indicators.

2-Some people are in the contrarian mode, feeling the public is generally wrong and one should go against line movement.

I am interested in baseball money lines in particular, and have some past data that I'm going to analyze. This data has "opening" and "closing" lines for about a six year period. I'm going to look at this to see if significant movement in one direction tells us anything about who is likely to win the game. And more importantly, what does that say about which way to wager.

I'm posting this for two reasons. The first one is curiosity. What do you guys think I'll find?

Secondly, as I do the analysis, I will likely post some raw results in hopes that someone may interpret them differently than I do.

[suicidekings]

I tend to lean more towards the second school of thought, but with a few caveats.

Reverse line movement is an idea that's becoming more popular. It's become a selling feature for pay services, so any RLM might get quoted as being a reason for action on a bet. The reasons behind the RLM can vary a lot as well. The opening line may not have been accurate to begin with (mistakes happen), late roster additions/scratches could have impacted it, or other reasons that can be as simple as the right person putting a lot of money on one side because they have a "feeling". I think there may be additional variables to consider that aren't going to be apparent in just the opening and closing line data.

When it comes to the public's knowledge as bettors, there was a strong public opinion that the Yankees would definitely win their first game in the new stadium, and that the Phillies would beat the Braves in their home opener. Without having the numbers in front of me, I would guess that the public heavily favoured both of these teams in this situation (from what I remember). I know other people viewed those games as golden opportunities to go against the public because there were solid statistical/other reasons to do so. I don't think that approach can be used on all cases of RLM though, so I would expect that if you could add additional criteria to your analysis as to the importance of the games in question / other quantifiable reasons for it, you'd get more useful results.

That's just my opinion. I would definitely be interested to see the results of the analysis.

[The General]

I have chased em and faded em'. Same result either way. Just my experience.

[xyz]

It all depends on the price you get your bet in at relative to the market price at that moment. Both schools of thought can be profitable. For the first one, if the line goes from -110/-110 to -140/+120 across the board, and you can find a slow moving book offering -110 for the favorite at that moment, you are in good shape by taking that bet at -110. For the second one, some books may over adjust. For example, line goes from -110/-110 to -120/Ev across the board, and one book jumped the gun and went to -140/+120, that +120 is probably OK to bet.

I've often wonder if line movements tell us much of anything? There seems to be two schools of thought here.

1-Line movement toward one team (some call it steam) is indicative that that team is more likely to win. This is consistent with the efficient market concept where the opinions of the general public collectively are pretty good indicators.

2-Some people are in the contrarian mode, feeling the public is generally wrong and one should go against line movement.

I am interested in baseball money lines in particular, and have some past data that I'm going to analyze. This data has "opening" and "closing" lines for about a six year period. I'm going to look at this to see if significant movement in one direction tells us anything about who is likely to win the game. And more importantly, what does that say about which way to wager.

I'm posting this for two reasons. The first one is curiosity. What do you guys think I'll find?

Secondly, as I do the analysis, I will likely post some raw results in hopes that someone may interpret them differently than I do.

[ICE-BLOOD]

1. past and current, EXACT opening and closing line data is hard to get

2. also different books have differnent lines

3. then when currently using this approach you will not know the true closing line until it is too late to wager (lines can fluctuate alot just before game starts) and you may make a play at the last minute only to find the final closing line says it shouldn't have been a play


you probably can get a general idea which way the line moved in the past and can see which way the line is moving for the current day's games though

good luck with your research on this

[Pancho sanza]

1. past and current, EXACT opening and closing line data is hard to get

2. also different books have differnent lines

3. then when currently using this approach you will not know the true closing line until it is too late to wager (lines can fluctuate alot just before game starts) and you may make a play at the last minute only to find the final closing line says it shouldn't have been a play


you probably can get a general idea which way the line moved in the past and can see which way the line is moving for the current day's games though

good luck with your research on this

don best premium has tons of opening/closing, by book.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I've often wonder if line movements tell us much of anything? There seems to be two schools of thought here.

1-Line movement toward one team (some call it steam) is indicative that that team is more likely to win. This is consistent with the efficient market concept where the opinions of the general public collectively are pretty good indicators.

2-Some people are in the contrarian mode, feeling the public is generally wrong and one should go against line movement.

I am interested in baseball money lines in particular, and have some past data that I'm going to analyze. This data has "opening" and "closing" lines for about a six year period. I'm going to look at this to see if significant movement in one direction tells us anything about who is likely to win the game. And more importantly, what does that say about which way to wager.

I'm posting this for two reasons. The first one is curiosity. What do you guys think I'll find?

Secondly, as I do the analysis, I will likely post some raw results in hopes that someone may interpret them differently than I do.

This would all depend on the book(s) where these lines originate from...

In a high volume book, your results should align with the first option listed, assuming that your results are based on betting the opening number in option 1 vs. betting the closing number for option 2.

[Casi]

Early line moves usually tell you what side the sharps are on (they love to hit openers).

Later movements can have several reasons...doubtful/out/probable players.
Large amounts hit/are about to hit one side.
Your job now is to find out if a move was "on air", or if there indeed is a valid reason.
Following blindly is not what i would recommend (that doesn´t include arbs ofc).

I find it helps a lot to compare between sharp/square books.
If the Yankees are -200 at Pinny, and only -190 at a square book, you better watch out taking the tasty dog.
If it´s the other way round i might go for it...

[Bsims]

A few comments after reading the previous posts. The data I'm using was gathered several years ago and covers the period 2001-2006. The data came from a variety of sources. So, the "opening" and "closing" lines might not have the same source. I am fairly certain that the "open" line represents a line from early in the day, and the "closing" line represents a line from later in the day. Hence, I think the data would present a reasonable picture of line movement.

I didn't do much with the data earlier because it wasn't particularly useful. If a line moves, you can't go back and bet a previous line (unless you are sitting online and watching line movements). I decided to re-visit the question because of Matchbook's recent change in commission. Hopefully the results would shed some light on whether I would be better off offering lines or accepting them.

Following is the count of games I have reasonable date for by year (just put it here to see if it gets formatted correctly).


TOTAL 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Games 13,326 2,155 2,100 2,289 2,351 2,370 2,061

I'll post some results as I get them.

[baseballtrader]

From my experience i have seen lines move and fluctuate in every sport but one thing that you have to realise is that different amounts of money will move lines. Sports that are heavily bet will take a larger bet to move, whereas the limit on less popular sports will require less.

Basically these are the reasons a line will move. Fundamentals of the game have changed. Injury, weather, or late scratches, second lopsided action on one side, or fear of one sided action. Thats about it. Your question was if you believed a line movement might tip or tell the winning hand when it comes to wagering on these events.

As there are many individuals that wager, wiseguy, square, professional or recreational, how can you tell who moved what or what are their intentions? Many squares believe that following the steam is the road to riches, only to find out that there was a late buyback minutes prior to the game being played. Sometimes gamblers or groups are just going for a middle, or took a portion of their bet back after it crossed a key number. Other times in baseball there is just scalping. Wall Street and sports betting is basically the same. You dont want to buy a stock that started out at 8 then steamed to 10 only to have a late buyback at closing bell to end at 7 for a loss.

How about if you tracked 75 basketball games on a Saturday and had numbers constantly moving back and forth? Which game do you play? Over time and over a large sample you will break even or with tough beats end up in the negative.

The only way that you can beat the game is to have true game odds,know your edge and rate of return and bet at the best available price. To do otherwise and bet at worse than available numbers earlier just to see an opinion is exactly playing into whoever takes your action. Remember that balanced action is what most books would prefer to see, but betting at a worse number is even better for them. Theoretically gamblers should pick at a break even percentage, now at a worse number you are diminishing your returns over time or even turning winning seasons into losing ones.

Books never balance to a tee , they have a side on every game on the board. But they believe that over many the sides will cancel out and only the juice remains. My opinion and what has worked for me is to bet at the best number, usually the first, and never at a line that is significantly worse.

[LT Profits]

From my experience i have seen lines move and fluctuate in every sport but one thing that you have to realise is that different amounts of money will move lines. Sports that are heavily bet will take a larger bet to move, whereas the limit on less popular sports will require less.

Basically these are the reasons a line will move. Fundamentals of the game have changed. Injury, weather, or late scratches, second lopsided action on one side, or fear of one sided action. Thats about it. Your question was if you believed a line movement might tip or tell the winning hand when it comes to wagering on these events.

As there are many individuals that wager, wiseguy, square, professional or recreational, how can you tell who moved what or what are their intentions? Many squares believe that following the steam is the road to riches, only to find out that there was a late buyback minutes prior to the game being played. Sometimes gamblers or groups are just going for a middle, or took a portion of their bet back after it crossed a key number. Other times in baseball there is just scalping. Wall Street and sports betting is basically the same. You dont want to buy a stock that started out at 8 then steamed to 10 only to have a late buyback at closing bell to end at 7 for a loss.

How about if you tracked 75 basketball games on a Saturday and had numbers constantly moving back and forth? Which game do you play? Over time and over a large sample you will break even or with tough beats end up in the negative.

The only way that you can beat the game is to have true game odds,know your edge and rate of return and bet at the best available price. To do otherwise and bet at worse than available numbers earlier just to see an opinion is exactly playing into whoever takes your action. Remember that balanced action is what most books would prefer to see, but betting at a worse number is even better for them. Theoretically gamblers should pick at a break even percentage, now at a worse number you are diminishing your returns over time or even turning winning seasons into losing ones.

Books never balance to a tee , they have a side on every game on the board. But they believe that over many the sides will cancel out and only the juice remains. My opinion and what has worked for me is to bet at the best number, usually the first, and never at a line that is significantly worse.

I am of the belief that as long as you beat the closing number, you will be fine in the long run. Obviously, betting the best number is ideal, but you are implying that you shouldn't bet a team at +120 if, say, +130 was available earlier. My contention is that it is still ok to jump in at +120 as long as the game ultimately closes at, say, +110 or less.

[coldhardfacts]

I am of the belief that as long as you beat the closing number, you will be fine in the long run. Obviously, betting the best number is ideal, but you are implying that you shouldn't bet a team at +120 if, say, +130 was available earlier. My contention is that it is still ok to jump in at +120 as long as the game ultimately closes at, say, +110 or less.

Both of you guys are alot smarter than me if you can regularly predict a) which way the line will move after it opens up, or b) what the closing number will be.

My contention is that it's OK to jump in at +120 if you think the TRUE line should be much lower (pic or laying odds).

[Casi]

I am of the belief that as long as you beat the closing number, you will be fine in the long run. .

No...that would be too easy.

[LT Profits]

No...that would be too easy.

No, it is a FACT if you consistently beat the closing number, you will win in the long run. That is not even debatable.

The hard part is actually doing it.

[LT Profits]

Both of you guys are alot smarter than me if you can regularly predict a) which way the line will move after it opens up, or b) what the closing number will be.

My contention is that it's OK to jump in at +120 if you think the TRUE line should be much lower (pic or laying odds).

Right, and if you are of the belief that the market becomes more efficient closer to game time, then the closing line should be close to the "true" line.

[ico2525]

Yes. I have been crushing MLB so far this season by following ML movement. I pick a game where the line has moved more than 20 cents and bet against that movement. A good example would be last night's Astro's game. The line moved 40 cents from +120 to +160. Houston won by 3. I'm 11-1.

[losturmarbles]

from my experience, it depends on a lot of factors, how efficient the market is, when the line came out (same day, night before, week ago), the book the movement is at. but the main thing is figuring out why the line moved. the sharpest people out there are the ones making the lines.

[acw]

Right, and if you are of the belief that the market becomes more efficient closer to game time, then the closing line should be close to the "true" line.

I fully agree with LT Profits here. Also I would like to add that I have not been able to get any useful info in betting with or against any steam/trend.

A much more interesting discussion would be which books/exchanges do and which do not have informative line moves.

[Casi]

No, it is a FACT if you consistently beat the closing number, you will win in the long run. That is not even debatable.

Listen...i switched to doing mostly Arbs for around 1.5 years now.
And iam really lucky that i do it in a way that i always bet the other side too...why?
coz iam UP at Pinny during those 1.5 years.

And of course i constantly have numbers there that are not as good as the closing line would have been, which means that most of my steam bets at all the other books look really superior.

Your bloody cold FACT would have cost me a fortune, if i´d decided to go for it and play only the slow moving line...

[Casi]

To actually back this up, here are my numbers at Pinny for the last 1.5 years (yep iam taking it slow atm, and lots of covers are at MB also..but the amounts should still be big enough to prove that it is not that easy).

First number is the total amount wagered, 2nd the +-
April 09: 40,461.30 9,299.21
March 09: 90,947.64 7,895.36
Feb 09: 51,308.27 4,299.82
Jan 09: 96,581.22 4,946.12
Dec 08: 108,172.27 -9,729.49
Nov 08: 110,631.30 -3,734.38
Oct 08: 89,681.18 8,220.58
Sep 08: 73,472.60 1,779.40
Aug 08: 70,584.89 9,239.95
Jul 08: 8,344.97 186.20
Jun 08: 15,278.17 2,060.25
May 08: Nothing
April 08: 50,896.91 9,291.90
Mar 08: 248,498.71 27,341.61
Feb 08: 208,270.63 -782.42
Jan 08 123,486.22 -22,953.72
Dez 07 145,448.11 5,274.16
Nov 07 114,852.01 -846.46

Total: 1.646.909 +51.785 (Euro)

[acw]

Casi,

Where does LT Profits ever mention Pinnacle?

[LT Profits]

It all depends on WHEN you bet the Pinny numbers. Of course you would be up at Pinny if you bet there early and the line moves further amd you beat their closing number. If you are saying you consistently bet Pinny at closing or close to closing and you are up there over a year and a half, then I'd say you are fulll of shit.

NOBODY can show a profit by consistently betting Pinny closers, as those are probably the most efficient numbers in the world.

[Casi]

It all depends on WHEN you bet the Pinny numbers. Of course you would be up at Pinny if you bet there early and the line moves further amd you beat their closing number. If you are saying you consistently bet Pinny at closing or close to closing and you are up there over a year and a half, then I'd say you are fulll of shit.

Before you call me "full of shit" i would suggest that you actually read my posts you tout-smartass.

I did bet at Pinny at even WORSE numbers then the closing line, because i just take the arbs when they are there and rarely wait for the best number all day.

You have no clue what you are talking about, but that´s something all touts have in common.

[LT Profits]

I suggest Casi be barred from the Think Tank until he watches some of Justin's videos regarding beating the closing line.

It is a mathematical fact that if you beat the closing line consistently, you will win in the long run. That is indisputable. If you are showing a profit by not beating the closing line, then you have simply been very lucky and that luck is sure to change.

[LT Profits]

Oh and don't go questioning my intelligence Casi, I have already forgotten more about betting than you will ever kmow in your lifetime.

[MonkeyF0cker]

To actually back this up, here are my numbers at Pinny for the last 1.5 years (yep iam taking it slow atm, and lots of covers are at MB also..but the amounts should still be big enough to prove that it is not that easy).

First number is the total amount wagered, 2nd the +-
April 09: 40,461.30 9,299.21
March 09: 90,947.64 7,895.36
Feb 09: 51,308.27 4,299.82
Jan 09: 96,581.22 4,946.12
Dec 08: 108,172.27 -9,729.49
Nov 08: 110,631.30 -3,734.38
Oct 08: 89,681.18 8,220.58
Sep 08: 73,472.60 1,779.40
Aug 08: 70,584.89 9,239.95
Jul 08: 8,344.97 186.20
Jun 08: 15,278.17 2,060.25
May 08: Nothing
April 08: 50,896.91 9,291.90
Mar 08: 248,498.71 27,341.61
Feb 08: 208,270.63 -782.42
Jan 08 123,486.22 -22,953.72
Dez 07 145,448.11 5,274.16
Nov 07 114,852.01 -846.46

Total: 1.646.909 +51.785 (Euro)

These numbers prove nothing. Unless you show each and every bet vs. the closing number, they're worthless.

[Casi]

If you would be so good, you wouldnt need your stupid tout service so stop acting as if you would actually be a pro.
Makes me laugh lol...

[Casi]

These numbers prove nothing. Unless you show each and every bet vs. the closing number, they're worthless.

As i wrote, i could have gotten a few more cents usually on most of them later...
hey iam not saying Pinnys numbers are not sharp, iam just saying its no guarantee to win if you beat closing numbers...some moves are ON AIR or SHADED. You kids have a lot to learn

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'm not a kid. And Pinny almost never moves on air. Other books move on air because of Pinny.

[Casi]

I'm not a kid. And Pinny almost never moves on air. Other books move on air because of Pinny.

I like your posts MF...but read again what you write here.
If other books move on air coz of Pinny, that means (if iam not missing something here) that Pinny started the move and they have to follow...right?
So how can those other books move on air, while Pinny doesn´t?

[durito]

NOBODY can show a profit by consistently betting Pinny closers, as those are probably the most efficient numbers in the world.

I doubt that.

It is a mathematical fact that if you beat the closing line consistently, you will win in the long run. That is indisputable.

Huh.

[durito]

I like your posts MF...but read again what you write here.
If other books move on air coz of Pinny, that means (if iam not missing something here) that Pinny started the move and they have to follow...right?
So how can those other books move on air, while Pinny doesn´t?

what

[MonkeyF0cker]

I like your posts MF...but read again what you write here.
If other books move on air coz of Pinny, that means (if iam not missing something here) that Pinny started the move and they have to follow...right?
So how can those other books move on air, while Pinny doesn´t?

Pinny generally moves on action since they are a high volume book and can balance their sheet with movement. The recreational books and square books move on air generally to prevent inbalanced action. Since Pinny has such high volume, the market is deemed efficient and is indicative of where a particular line has fair value.

[LT Profits]

Discussion on beating closing line starts at around 5:40.

[Casi]

Pinny generally moves on action since they are a high volume book and can balance their sheet with movement.

Pinny is a betting syndicate. A bunch of sharp guys who have a strong opinion on many games, and get the bets they want at ~ +105 instead of paying the juice elsewhere.

If they have no opinion they might try to balance the action, but that is not standard. Try moving the line with a very high bet on a major sport, and you might see the number moving against you.